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I said I wanted a pullback. That was a little gross. And for sure its someone with 10lb balls playing chicken with a bullet train.
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On the other hand maybe bitcoin could do something never seen before?? (Irrational Exuberance)
Punish CME shorters? That I would like very much. But I am thinking along the lines of moving in a way that really gets Paul Krugman all carbonated and talking about tulips and fax machines and Keynes. And then just not stopping. For like a year. Just blowing up Yeah I am fantasizing. And here's a good cooldown. Man I *LOVE* when the market is running so hot you are actually relieved by healthy pullbacks. Good Good... not parabolic yet... slow and steady... even quick and steady, really. |
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Y'all hate on me if you like... but I'm kinda thinking we need to cool down soon.
We want this to be a grind for now, not a parabola.
On the other hand maybe bitcoin could do something never seen before?? (Irrational Exuberance)
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if we go to $50K by Nov1, Robinhood traders will go green with envy and will demand that btc is traded on the platform.
Imagine what millions of angry customers can do, lol.
Robinhood DOES have BTC trading. It's just synthetic, I think. You can;t withdraw. |
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So my loop in transaction that I accidentally set to a 1sat/k fee is not likely to get mined anytime soon, is it?  Could take 48 hours. Maybe as it’s Sunday tomo you’ll get lucky. Current recommended fee is 9 sat/byte. Post the transaction id, I’ll see if I can run it through via bitcoin’s free accelerator. Ah good idea! Forgot about that. I could also do RBF I guess... but I don't NEED this transaction. The transaction itself is for like $55, but the change is much more ha. I went ahead and rebroadcasted via an accelerator. No reason for me to sacrifice the opsec I would posting the tx here.  But thanks for the reminder! |
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So my loop in transaction that I accidentally set to a 1sat/k fee is not likely to get mined anytime soon, is it? |
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Zoom  This should be framed... It defines what we are rolling into. |
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Just a short note: Bitcoin price didn't dump just before CME futures contract expiration date and i'm very happy about that. This is, only for myself, the confirmation that we're at the start of the next bull cycle. @JJG: Maybe you should cancel your cancellation of hookers, blow and lambos now    Agreed. I was looking forward to this being how it turned out for the same reason... the big money knows they can splash around and ring money out of their new bitcoin toy when all is relatively quiet on the water so to speak, but they're also realizing it becomes dangerous to stand on the shoreline when the storm surge might be about to hit. I would love to see the institutional manipulators get creamed, but the fact is they are just too smart for that. Most of them will ride this thing up with us. And *that*, I think is one of the reasons I think there is a small chance we see some differences in this cycle. Not enough of them knew what BTC cycles were the first 2 (3) times. I mean most of us were just lucky to be there to watch those ourselves. But if you read that Fidelity piece there is a growing number of people who most likely control a LOT of funds that TODAY are drinking their espressos and saying the same thing to each other that *we* are: "You know... this could be the big one". |
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....snip ...WTF?
Good lord, that must be some mighty fine ganja you are smoking there dude... I blame it on Google Translate. No doubt GPT-3 can write something that makes much more sense. |
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Good morning Bitcoinland. Another wee leg up I see... currently $11610USD/$15570CAD (Bitcoinaverage). Gotta love the slow steady steps up with little consolidations in between. Go Bitcoin go. It's also too bad that hundreds of thousands of George Floyd protesters around the globe spent about 1-1/2 to 2 months running around literally in each others faces *without* masks on, potentially (likely) infecting the rest of the population... and hardly anyone in the media said shit about it. The media down-played it and made excuses for it. Because, ya'know, political agendas and all.  Shall we go ahead with incarcerating the hundreds of thousands protesters worldwide, or do they all get a pass? Why bring anti-brutality protesters into a discussion about masks? From what I saw, the percentage of protesters wearing masks was no lower than that of the general population. Politics has nothing to do with it, or at least it shouldn't. Mask wearing is a medical issue, not a political one. Why do some people try to turn everything into some right-wing versus left-wing partisan political debate? But it is being turned into that. At least in my country. White vs black, male vs female north vs south, left vs right, faith vs science and on and on. It's more political than it ever has been. The supreme court is hearing cases about whether church's activities should be curtailed. All this in direct opposition to the 1st amendment. Most of these polarities pitted against each other are false dichotomies. It's quite disheartening to me. |
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I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn. He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.
Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision. I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit. And it fits with Dave's overall map. We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.
But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time. I don't think we can take any more pressure... but we'll see.
Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say. filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.  -------- meanwhile..work continues #dyor  1h  4h  #stronghands "Truly I tell you," he continued, "no prophet is accepted in his hometown." I come to this thread in no small part to enjoy your analysis and certainly did not mean to imply the exclusion of you in my reverence for a couple twitter accounts. Merit dumped upon your head. |
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But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in.
Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.  At the risk of uttering a tautology, exactly as much bitcoin is bought as the amount that is sold. But we are talking about the chaotic dynamic relationship of price, first of the digital asset in the legacy system, and then transforming into the legacy system emulated over the digital asset. This is where all the opportunities come from... But yeah, also 1btc=1btc. |
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Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node? AWS or ANKR?
Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good. Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month. But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime? TX i try PI 4 This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want. Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence: https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitzI run that on the 4Gig pi 4. Ok i look. You node setting up easy on this? Super easy... hardest part is waiting for the blockchain to download. That is also why you need the Pi 4, and the extra ram helps. |
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Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node? AWS or ANKR?
Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good. Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month. But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime? TX i try PI 4 Well and I want to point out.. you can run one on a desktop, or a laptop. Hell I still have one running in a docker instance on a QNAP NAS. I ought shut that silly thing down... |
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Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node? AWS or ANKR?
Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good. Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month. But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime? TX i try PI 4 This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want. Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence: https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitzI run that on the 4Gig pi 4. |
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Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node? AWS or ANKR?
Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good. Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month. But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime? |
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But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.
The pump is harder.
4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth
I would argue that shift can't happen in less than 10 years. 12-18 months is a no go.
I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000
Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.
If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.
this is from another post.
the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.
it got close to .5% in 2017
I simply do not see it going past 1% or maybe 40-60k
But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point. This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game. As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value. But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in. Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion. How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion? I do not believe the answer is 800billion. Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero. I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around... I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like. For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin? If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level. I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021 I just don't see it going much past it. Most of us are wannabes and not sitting on 1000btc or more. Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30million. So I listed the top 10 guys I think there are 2000 billionaires. lets argue they own 16 million btc. and we the little guy owes a total of 2 million btc. I propose then have a vested interest in not letting us catch up. 2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000 22 billion they have 8x that or 176 billion yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto they absolutely will control the rise bump to 55,000 the lower group now has 110 billion they have 880 billion. I believe they would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to. move to 330,000 a coin the lower group now has 660 billion they have 5280 billion certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point. They would sell off and not let us grow this high. Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich" I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k vs 250k to 330k. Just so we that lower section do not get too independent. I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know. A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election. Just because I the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct. Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings. If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain they places in the billionaire club. That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them. That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. at bitserve see how many hold 1000. if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens. This is so fun I read it 3 times. I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though. |
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But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point. This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game. As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.
But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in.
Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion. How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion? I do not believe the answer is 800billion.
Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless. Exactly what I was attempting to say. |
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But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.
The pump is harder.
4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth
I would argue that shift can't happen in less than 10 years. 12-18 months is a no go.
I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000
Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.
If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.
this is from another post.
the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.
it got close to .5% in 2017
I simply do not see it going past 1% or maybe 40-60k
But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point. This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game. As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value. But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in. Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion. How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion? I do not believe the answer is 800billion. Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero. I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around... I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like. For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin? If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level. |
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