First time Ive seen anything, the site is there and its almost doing something but comes back with invalid time state or some error I dont recognize.   I was only going to check an old bet slip but no doubt a pain for those wanting to do something.


Saw that, alot of big bets but Drake is going to need some tips from Snoopdog on streaming, lighting etc.   Maybe some background music etc., not sure where he'd find that :p

If 1 BTC is transacted publicly at 12k I could believe that occurs, sharp spike and a sell at any price order but I dont think we'll have great volume in that way.  I used to buy sell BTC every day and the range of prices is something you wont believe but most of its tiny amounts not actually significant towards the global price.   The harshest price will be quite brief, its quite valid to be buying the 20's and call it a good price for multi year usage or hold.    Depends what you are scared of, not all prices are equal not every day has an equal amount of volume its all quite lumpy.
   If somebody sells at the lowest possible price not seen for years they are gifting the buyer, do we care about this so nice of them to be generous or perhaps they had no choice as it was on leverage but it doesnt have to alter my own perspective.

In my experience the market will test all boundaries, it will smash against fixed objects like waves on rocks and eventually it can wear anything down, that much is giving too much credit to Tether or anything else.   It'll have its limits for whatever reasons markets have a destructive side to them, crypto has main market money involvement so we have all kinds of operators not just the original people from crypto who were happy to run a machine at a loss if need be.
  The whole idea of stability coins has always appeared a castle in the sky to me but I dont know the minute details that might allow it to survive, if it can adjust itself let off pressure perhaps it continues.   I'd rather it decline in a gradual way then just pop one day, I've never used it so why should it be my problem.

The concept itself is flawed, volatility is a natural phenomena.  People have been trying to argue they have created stability and so an investable instrument for decades back and its failed spectacularly before.   If you look up LTCM you will find the names of Nobel prize winners, the best of the best minds in capital and economic studies and it failed so badly it required a gigantic bailout.  They attempted to counter volatile markets and find a profit in doing so, it blew up their faces one day as the market tripped as it will do naturally.    
  The reason BTC and other parts of crypto defy gravity and climb so high beyond the imagination of the creator probably and people originally involved is because we are living in a time of great change.  Things taken for granted at the time you grow up will only be learnt via history books by the end of your life, theres going to be a few bumps with that tectonic movement and it'll knock anything fixed and promising stability off its perch.
    All that is to say I dont take that coin failure as reflecting all of crypto, its just an attempt to do something inadvisable and returns are always linked to some risk with judgement required.  If price falls on any asset its an adjustment process and its required and healthy to do so from houses to oil prices to BTC etc. it cant be fixed for comfort it must serve the market interests not the person.

We'll reset, we'll go back up  but we dont yet know from what point that process restarts.  The more important thing is the ongoing usage continues and all parties are able to transfer value at that days price without interference or obstruction, if we got use then utility is there and value is served so crypto is fine imo.  Overall I think we've been pretty stable even with disappointing price moves downwards, fixing the price is ironically more dangerous then free float.

BTC was front page at that time like for example CNN, 1000 was an epic price.   You are probably correct many big companies werent involved but I'd say many had heard of it in some way.   Just the normal news they discussed BTC for 15 minutes, I remember being so surprised it was a national TV channel and so mainstream in that way.  I wont argue about usage because people talk about alot of things but never make the move but it had some percentage use not purely specialist interest as the origins had been.
  I know someone who got some BTC to pay a server hosting bill for his game server.  He rented for a while and left the balance till he remembered it in 2021

In terms of market pricing vs operations, I can remember Facebook IPO the price halved from 40 down to 20.  It was thought far too highly valued by many, a passing overhyped fad of course.    Right now people are writing BTC doomed, price fell wont recover etc.   there tends to be a repeat in these cycles of sentiment

Every man got to have a code, its not a bad question really because surely everyone tells themselves something.   I dont know I have any conscious mantra beyond watching the game, luck can turn here, maybe thats it Im always looking for the pivotal point the tide changes in my favor because thats when you can alter bet size as well and gain from the better luck

Not everything is bearish, a pullback within one year doesnt really qualify as a negative if you are not selling its just a price tag and if you are buying then celebrate because its now cheaper.     Energy and commodities are very positive, you wont find food and many things cheaper over the forthcoming years; higher prices and invariably investment returns will be there.
  BTC and many parts of crypto are doing great over multiple years, are we much down vs the lows of last year not really so much.    People do look straight down and focus on only what just happened, look at the horizon and you will regain your sense of balance for better judgement.
   If you find you do find optimism over lower prices hard to do then buy this month, wait till next month then try a buy then also and every month.   Keep checking prospects and improve your interest beyond purely price moves.    Do this at least a year, instead of a dart you will be firing a cannon in terms of how likely you will hit the uptrend you want.  

Wars and other events have focused all attention back to the conventional forms of currency and value favored for a hundred years, this is peak FIAT price for USD in two decades.   Enjoy the show, its still not stopping your commodity and energy prices from spiking because the value is face value not genuine buying power but the emphasis is real and it takes away some of the stride crypto had.
   This is just the way it works, the tide goes in both directions and any ideas of greater prices will have to wait a bit longer.  You lose nothing because nothing changed within BTC blockchain itself, there is no special bailout fund or whatever politics guides most currency standards;  BTC retains the same schedule of issuance its always had.   BTC isnt measured in dollars, that is entirely arbitrary so no complaint is really valid, the long game is in ongoing improvements to means and ease of transfer back and forth between users.
  I care more about fees really, I want people to not hesitate because fees discourage any kind of usage at all this has more significance then the price this week if we're talking a success story developing further.

Japan and China are going to vary because of their regimes attitudes towards crypto.  China wants their citizens to use only their approved currency payment methods and generally they have capital controls to restrict freedoms.  Japan is pro crypto and has an open currency system so I cant see the two would be comparable.
  I'd advise people not to swap back and forth if possible, swapping to FIAT at these prices is not great timing just retain a modest amount in crypto for long term usage will save alot of hassle.

I remember 2014 being quite a dead zone and note that low there, kinda amazing.   The low was quite close to a prior high if I remember right because Im sure I used up BTC in the hundreds within that mindset, long time ago but relevant to now in that we probably mark out lows with some reference to prior highs.

If we are going to consider 'ever' and time lines over a decade then correct context is likely monthly bars not weekly so see how the picture looks when doing that, we may get more clarity.
   For sure we have a convergence of bearish factors and BTC was already in a technical pullback so its an unholy trinity of pain.  In the end its there to test people and my perspective though quite bleak like 2014 the road continues on beyond the visible horizon and our view is too short to take this negativity absolutely.

100k is not unreasonable but the rush to assume it will occur now is more of a problem.  If we had 6x from the low of 25k thats well clear of 100k and long term possible, it'll likely be alongside fairly large events or changes in the world and I see those things happening on their own time line so its not now and thats fine.  People expect too much so we sell, its almost cause and effect and I'm less bearish then otherwise because the hype needed to be clipped in a healthy way.


Rich people dont matter in that way, its why they are rich is what we really care about.   If they can partake in BTC, gain and add to at the same time theres a mutual benefit.   BTC will gain from adoption from across the population but the more widespread the better, rich people cant force anything here and I imagine they'd end up favoring a centralized digital standard not BTC which is far too uncontrolled.
  You wont get much more avant-garde then Elon Musk but I dont consider him a proper influence even with the really large recent involvement he had, its not a driving force imo so I'm not looking at anyone else.  People in general we do need them to use BTC increasingly so thats the real measure not the constant graph watch on prices which is secondary importance mostly speculative.

I was just thinking for extreme caution its surely got to see the BTC price above the 50 day average.   Its so close by if Grandma was investing her pension I'd say theres little to rush the situation in consideration till we trade above the 50 day and stay above there.   Theres no knowing it will stay above the 50 day when it passes, but I believe there is a better chance once we do of accumulating positive momentum at that moment.
   For others the method might be to buy into the dips and harsh ones give the best price, thats a more risky route.   On that count there is both the 200 week average that many will buy  on I think, I doubt we get to the 2019 highs but we live in a world of events that might cause a sharp sell so on one particular day it could occur I guess.

Not impossible but really not many days, its next Tues which is at least mid week and higher volume is likely needed.  The reason is as the Dollar is coming down to its lowest prices of May it might push into a trend of lows which encourages some to take speculative trades like in crypto.   Usually it takes time to develop and spread, inversely crypto would benefit from this lower dollar so by end of May is too soon most likely.  I only bet on the melt down and that wasnt there either

Dont blame anyone else, its self deception mostly.   People believe in fixed targets and prices for BTC when we have no dam idea what they are doing to Dollar and why hasnt it fallen apart already.   There is no certain outcome so how could anyone know for sure a certain price in the future.   The bigger and better question is does it really matter, consider BTC by itself not what its passing in the rear view mirror.
   All these round figures especially, its like a reverse magnet it repels as well as attracts.   If you do speculate and trade like that dont wait for 6 figures because it will certainly sell off before that point many times, people jump the gun and sell out thats how it all works.  Today there is nothing stopping a future price occurring even as high as this, this fall does not negate that future event but when I dont know.

Aim to buy this whole year imo and thats just what I thought might be reasonable guessing back from last year.   A lapse of constant gains and a pullback is par for the course.
  Right now I wanted to note that the DXY or Dollar index has pulled back from its 20 year highs but only to the peak we saw in the pandemic sell off so a place of significance.   To me that makes a pivotal point of note, I'll be watching that for reflection on strength and possibilities for BTC as its inverse of course.

Surely its the users of the coins taking the risk in their additional bet upon the prospects of that particular blockchain.  The fees for BTC are often not that great so I dont blame people for using alternatives, its their risk to take.  I presume the casino will allow the use of whatever medium is most popular and likely to facilitate inflows.   The stable coins were always a stepping stone, too many people just stood on it forever expecting too much imo

Any harsh low is likely to be a one day spike down, of course at that time you wont know if its for one day or forever hence some sell.   The low is always something of a test but low prices are far more consistent to track then the highest prices I think there is more accuracy to their movements so it should be possible to buy on those lows as price action shows itself to be more regular and very slightly positive.
  The harsh spike down is hard to call, my worst estimate was perhaps the 2019 peak but the 200 week seems to match up better.   I was never sure about the 2017 peak because it was stuck in the middle of transaction fees spiking, was volume reliable at that time to reflect consensus or was it mostly just the largest speculators outbidding themselves.

Theres a correlation in sentiment and leveraged money via the Dollar index.   In a harsh environment anything speculative will retract and alot of tech companies are valuing prospective earnings which is something under threat when the market considers a possible recession in future.   BTC relates to that general pullback so long as its not a yielding currency, its not completely or true in absolute way because there are operating businesses which make money via use of BTC or obviously alot of tech stocks are based on profitable operations (globally).
  The correlation is in less optimism of GDP expansion, US stocks suffer from inflation fears where as BTC generally is going to react positively but in this case its a long term reaction via growth as an alternative currency to transact.  So on multiple time frames comparisons will vary.

More sideways, along the weekly average back and forth is typical of the market wearing out both sides of the order book.   Volume builds at this level and it becomes more significant.



So likely the range is 30k and 25k below us and breaking that range leads us to more interesting price action becoming possible.  34200 above is the lows of Jan Feb likely target upside.

Never short a dull market, classic phrase and worth remembering because it costs alot less to reference history then relive it personally and painfully.    Markets and people tend to repeat themselves, BTC is low but you dont sell into the low if you can at all avoid it because of why the harsh low occurs in the first place.   Biggest lesson to take away from any modern market is the amount of hot money or borrowed money that is sloshing around the place; when the market contracts it really hurts those who needed the momentum of trades appreciating.
   We get stuck in a loop basically and price is not always accurate, seen before and we'll see it again BTC is very likely fine and not any worse off then a year ago imo which is not to say we cannot go lower but I think we're stretching it with this straight red sequence.