So it isn't as bad I thought it would be, even though 6% is a lot and hardly unlikely, we still have Samsung that supplies MicroBT with it's 8nm chips, they don't get a huge portion of it but still.


I mentioned this before, I thought they could back to the 16nm chips which should be more available than the 7nm, but then when I think about it, it might not make sense, you see timing is everything, while BTC has a potential of going past 100k for this bull run, chances are it won't remain above it for long enough, so those crazy times of plugging an S9 on a 10cent per Khw yields profit won't last for more than 2-3 months,  by the time Bitmain is done with its 7nm orders from T19 to S19 pro, it will be too late.

Mining gear makers have another problem, every gear they make today brings the value of the next gear they make tomorrow down, this theory is 100% accurate unless someone thinks that price can keep going up forever without going into years of bear markets.

Looking at the profitability chart, it's has been forever in a downtrend, even with prices at 40k now it was more profitable to mine back in June 2019 when the price was at about 10k, so in the long run, the difficulty goes up more than the price does, yes price goes up a lot faster, but difficulty goes up slow and steady and it doesn't do a 70% drop every other year, so we can safely ignore the price factor in the long run and rest assured that difficulty is only going to go up, which makes mining bitcoin more difficult, each gear makes less bitcoin and thus worth less the further we move.

I also think that these manufacturers are well aware of the market cycles and that their sales will only be hot when there is a massive bull market like the one we have now, so I doubt that they will push their production capacity a lot further since eventually, there will be times where bitmain mining gears are spot orders with next day delivery, listed for very cheap and nobody wants to buy them.

This is strange, T17e does have 78 chips on each hash board, so it should work fine, the only thing I can think of right now is the PSU, can you unplug chain 2 and leave only chain 1 and 3?

Also, did this board suddenly stop working or how did the problem actually start?

بالتأكيد يوجد تحليل علمي.  


اجابتك ليست خطاء وليست صوابا في نفس الوقت, في الواقع ان الامر لايهم, حظ حوض التعدين خلال اخر 30 يوم او اخر 12 شهر او حتى 12 سنة لن يوثر ابدا على حظه في المستقبل, التعدين يتكون من سلسلة من الاحداث الغير مرتبطة totally independent events, يمكنك تخيل الموضوع من هده الناحية, عندما ترمي قطعة معنية وتسقط على الوجه ماهي فرصة سقوطها على الوجه في المرة المقلبة؟ الفرصة دائما 50%, حتى لو رميت العملة 100 مرة وسقطت على نفس الاتجاه المحاولة 101 تكون فيها الفرصة 50\50, لانه لايوجد اي تسلسل للاحداث يجبرها على ان تأخد منحنى دون اخر, فالامر عشوائي ومنفصل.

You can host it on a free AWS, it's a javascript code that runs on node.js, should be easlity and cheaply hosted anywhere, however, it doesn't seem like it has Binance Futuers ready implemented, I assume that is where most of the trading happens nowadays, with that being said, I think the Binance Futuer API isn't very different from the Spot/default API, so it should be easy implemented, and perhaps one of the forks you talked about it has already done that.

The second option would be to hire someone who knows how to code in python, show them the Binance API
and ask them to write the code for you, I am pretty sure that on Fiverr or the like, you will find people who have already done this and all they need to edit is the strategy itself which does't make much of the code, the majority of the code would be the one that interacts with the exchange to place/close orders, as far as the when to buy/sell goes, for most strategies it's only a matter of a couple of lines.

So it's the exact same size as the S9 chip, maybe they just used the same format since there is no real benefit in increasing the chip size?


Keep in mind that this $6 chip burns 17 watts to hash at 0.34th a day, that's only 9 cents a day before the power bill, the BM1398BB (S19 chip) makes even less sense at $25.


That's great news, I am really happy for you. When people say bitcoin is financial freedom they only think we call it that because you can spend it without anybody's permission, but it does more than that, it increases your wealth, it's a great hedge against the unlimited amount of money banks can make out of thin air.



If you had to put this in simple English terms, what is the likely hood of bitmain to be able to obtian 200,000,000 7nm from TMSC in 2021? that means roughly a 1 million S19 or 100EH worth of hash power, if that is possible then difficulty will double, if that isn't possible - it won't, and of course this assumes that getting the chips is the only bottleneck bitmain faces.

That is not really true, I don't want to go off-topic and explain how on an economical profit-wise scale it's better to take the run with 5 people now rather than with 10 people later with an increase of 12% in difficulty, but if you think about it more - you will come to understand why I say so.

I think in the next run you manage, you should ask for funds to be sent the moment someone subscribes to the run, this way you won't be slowed down, especially when we are facing a large spike in difficulty like the one that is coming in 30 hours.

With that being said, I wish you guys all the best, may your run bring the first block in 2021.

احسنت, في الواقع هدا الهاش مميز جدا فهوا يبداء ب 10 ارقام بدون اي احرف, وهدا من النادر الحصول عليه.

ان كان اجمالي محاولاتك هوا 32,400 نظرا لفترة ال 3 ساعات وسرعة 3 هاشات في الثانية يعني ان حظك هوا 200%, اي انك استغرقت تقريبا نصف الوقت للحوصل على الهاش, وهدا ماتقصده احواض التعدين عندما تقول ان حظ البلوك لاخر 30 يوم هوا 101% يعني انها وجدت 1% اكثر بلوكات من المتوسط.

ومن هنا يمكن ان ينشاء سؤال جديد ليستفيد منه الجميع, عند انضمامك لحوض تعدين هل يهم ماهو حظهم الحالي؟ يعني انه يوجد نوعان من البشر عندما يختارو حوض التعدين في حال تشابه كل خصائه ورسومه

النوع الاول:

يطبون مبداء ان حوض التعدين المحظوظ سيكون دائما محظوظ وهدا يعني انهم سوف يحققون ارباح اكثر معه

النوع التاني: يعتقد انه نظرا لان عامل الحظ يتلاشاء مع الوقت فأن حوض التعدين المحظوظ سوف يمر بمرحلة غير محظوظة لذلك فهم يتخارون حوض تعدين حظه 98% بدلا من 102% على امل ان ال 98% اقرب ان تكون 100% اكثر من فرصة ال 102% ان تبقا 102%.

ماذا سيكون خيارك في هده الحالة؟ ولماذا؟

النتيجة الحالية

Khalid = 1+1+1+1+1+1+1
1+icy3 = 1
yhiaali= 1
ulven = 1+1+1+1

سوف اضع البلوك الجديد لاحقا.

Where are you located? there is a repair center in North Carolina, you can check my "Where to fix your Asic miners" topic for clues, also any repair discussion is welcome there.

Here is an update, since my post on Dec 18 prices have increased quite a bit

S19 pro = $3769
S19     = $2767
T19     = $2118



And the best part is, they are SOLD OUT, it mentions that the shipping date is 1-31 August, I am sure it will be late August, maybe 1-3 days before the month ends, so these buyers will be getting their gears in September at best case scenario, if this isn't a bad deal, I don't know what is, but let's wait for 8 months and see how does this buy turn out to be.

الترجمة الالية ركيكة جدا حتى بالرغم من فهمي الجيد لتعدين بالمجمل الا اني واجهت صعوبة في فهم خائص هدا البرنامج, كان يجب ان تقوم بتكليف شخص يتحدث العربية لترجمة هدا الموضوع ان كنت جاد في استقطاب المعدنين العرب, اما بهده الطريقة فلا اعتقد ان اي شخص سيأخد برنامجك على محمل الجد.

Of course, my strategy barely makes a profit in a bear market since it doesn't short, so it needs a bull market or a coin that has some positive news whereby the coin goes up regardless of the market condition,so if your strategy doesn't lose you money during a bear market then it's good enough IMO.

With that being said, the bot has been online since Aug which the majority of it is bull, if you randomly invested in 10 coins you would be in good profit by now, so it really doesn't indicate anything yet, it needs to run for at least a whole cycle where we see a new ATH followed by a new local bottom, this means 1-2 years at least.



It doesn't mean anything yet, I don't have a perfect sample to compare it against, I just laid out that the pros of using a bot are that you don't miss any trade and you stick to your strategy 100%, which I do fail to comply with, for an example, the current ADA position profit is 129.37%, if I was manually trading it, I would close it right now, but the bot is following the code which says don't close it yet, so this 129.37% could end up being 150% or 50% only, whereby in manual trading I would have probably closed it long before, despite that fact that I am not too prone to emotions, I don't think I can go to bed without closing a 129% profit position.

Anyway, when a year has passed and I have long term results from both my manual trading and the bot, I should be able to complete this study, for now, let's just watch the bot do its thing.

BTW, the bot lost a few trades earlier own prior to opening all of these positions, and then I had to reset my orders, ended up at about 500$ back from the 579.11$, so I call that breakeven and I loaded another $500 so the initial cost now is considered $1000.

Current balance including Unrealized PNL = $1,357.0454

I am not electronic savvy but I can tell you that 1M gears are way beyond BM capacity, even if they weren't limited by semiconductor shortage, they are out of stock till August and they don't even have half a million gear in order if you combine all the large orders since most of them are public and multiply that by 2 you will still be below the 200k miners if they were remotely close to making that much in a year or two then things would have been different.


I have seen and held S17 chip in my hand, I have a few of them lying around at the farm which I can't access now, they are slightly bigger than the S9 chips of which I happen to know their exact size which is 8mm*8mm, I measured that with a regular ruler so expect 1-5% variance ( my eyes are bad), the S19 chips might be 10mm or 12mm, I think you can safely do the math with these numbers and in the coming days, I'll get you the exact dimension.

There is no name whatsoever, those heatsinks aren't specific for antminer S9, just buy any heatsink of the same size, you can find them for cheap on Amazon and eBay.

Then that should be easy to fix @theymos, no?

Anyway, since this is a known issue, I am sure theymos knows about it and there is no need to keep this topic going, I will lock it.

Thanks, everyone.

This time I am almost certain phill,  . You see,  I wouldn't make price predictions because that requires a crystal ball for me to be pretty sure, but as far as the difficulty goes, it needs magic to do 3x or 4x or even 2x.

I can't stress this enough but the world is facing a semiconductors shortage, TSMC dropped its discount policy, some chips have gone 30% in price this month, to see huge spikes in difficulty Bitmain needs to make over a million S19, oh well good luck with that.

It really doesn't matter if we see a 10-15% spike for this epoch or even the next one, we will eventually slow down and start going up with small spikes, I am more worried about old and current gears being overclocked due to the overwhelming profit rather than new gears coming in, but say we get a 30% icnrease from everyone's gears going on full blast, that will be about 40EH, new gears will hardly go to 60-70E? that's not even 100% of the current hashrate.

I might be very optimistic as far as difficulty goes, but for everybody's sake, let's hope that we will look back to this topic 10 months later, and say well -- Mikey was right.

نعم حالفك الحظ, في الواقع حالفك الحظ حتى في المحاولة الالى نظرا لان سرعتك هي عدد المحاولات قسمة الزمن يعني 1.4 هاش في الثانية, وهده سرعة بطيئة نسبيا ويمكنن تطويرها بسهولة اعتقد, وبناء على هده السرعة فأنه في المتوسط سوف تحتاج الى تقريبا 13 ساعة لايجاد الحل, يعني هدا بالمتوسط لو حاولت ايجاد نفس البلوك الف مرة سوف يكون هدا المتوسط, طبعا يمكن ان تجده في ثواني او دقائق او احيانا ايام ولن تجده ولكن المتوسط 13 ساعة بالنسبة لسرعتك, مما يعني انك في المرتين كنت محظوظ جدا. دعنا نرا حظ الاخوة الاخرين اذا.

الهاش الحالي


الصعوبة 1111 , طبعا الاخ ulven ممنوع من المشاركة في هدا البلوك.

Not sure if this is a known issue, I searched a few keywords and I couldn't find any.

After posting a relatively long "code" my post history aka "Show the last posts of this person" looks very weird, the text alignment is messy and annoying.

I discovered this when I looked into Ulven's profile, but I thought it had to be a glitch in the RTL alignment of the Arabic board, I posted the same code in Archival and now my last posts page looks the same, does anyone know what causes this and how to avoid it?

رائع اخي ulven , لقد بدلت الكثير من الجهد, ونتيجة الهاش


لم اتوقع حل هدا البلوك بهده السرعة, هل يمكن لك ان تعيد المحاولة لمدة 60 ثانية وتحسب كم محاولة في الدقيقة , اي تحسب سرعة الهاش الخاصة بك وتخبرني بها؟ مشكور

النتيجة الحالية

Khalid = 1+1+1
1+icy3 = 1
yhiaali= 1
ulven = 1+1+1+1

Done.

I don't think this is correct, this isn't why hash boards with no heatsink don't work.


yes, once you fix those heatsinks, assuming all the 63 chips are fine then the miner will work just fine, there are many videos on youtube that show you how to glue a heatsink on those chips, it isn't easy, but if you have done something similar before - it shouldn't be difficult.