What I see, psychologically, is as the price starts exploding people will remember the old euphoria, then the old fear and regret will come rushing back and they'll get conservative and sell to strength, not wanting to get suckered into old mistakes. After a few fakeout rallies and steady growth and boring price responses to bad news, the psychology will be rebalanced.
I agree that will be a factor in price. I also think it will also be hard to ignore all the development that's been buzzing around lately. Fear/greed cycles whatever |
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I appreciate all the responses guys. Though I'm still downright a beginner, we all have to start out somehow, don't we? Haha while we're at it, I'd appreciate some of your guys' anecdotes about how you started, lessons learned, etc. I plan on thoroughly reading through this book as soon as I finish my first session of summer school (ochem, micro and macroecon). Thanks for all your resources, I'll digest those during this session in the meanwhile  |
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I don't think the price will explode yet; the bubble-crash is still too fresh in too many people's minds.
That's not bad, because people will just have to wonder why if Bitcoin indeed was a bubble, why the hell is it still around? |
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Yes, you've predicted $10 bitcoins on May 30th. Looks like you're doing everything right.
Do I have it right that where the point converges is roughly the time range where we can expect a breakout? Chart pattern technical analysis isn't easy. I see where you're coming from with the Falling Wedge, but I wouldn't be considering that formation just eyeballing the chart. My personal rule for any lines is no more than 4, and if I can help it - just 3 or less. So how do you identify patterns? Do you even assign patterns that much weight versus your previous observations and rules for price reactions? At this point I'd be drawing a long-term trendline underneath the lows that were made from around April 15th and early May. We've already been "flat" enough that drawing an upper line connecting recent highs would've been broken out of, so it invalidates that anyway. thank you, that now makes a bit more sense to me. The best you can say at the moment is that it is above a longer-term trendline. But the thing about trendlines is they aren't containers or deflectors - merely rulers to compare to price action.
There are many indicators, so I won't go into all that - but I would encourage you to formulate your own rules for how price reacts and different points - Highs and Lows, and proceed from there. Some of my most useful tools came from refinement and observation over long periods of time.
I've been watching charts for maybe a year, I know I have so much further to go. In the mean time, hopefully fundamental analysis can get me by (it's just timing that screws me!). Thank you Timm! |
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Hey friends, just a junior in college trying to learn and practice basic TA, I could use pointers and perspectives to help me point me in the right way to build my own perspective As of May 16, 2013: are we in a falling wedge? what am i doing?http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90zig12-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvhttp://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversPrior Trend: To qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the falling wedge will form after an extended downtrend and mark the final low. The pattern usually forms over a 3-6 month period and the preceding downtrend should be at least 3 months old.Shorter time frame, but would you say we were in a short term downtrend the past month? Can you be on a downtrend for a 1-month cycle within a bigger uptrend? Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be lower than the previous highs.Apr 9, Apr 24, May 7? Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be lower than the previous lows.Apr 6, 12, 16? Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge to form a cone as the pattern matures. The reaction lows still penetrate the previous lows, but this penetration becomes shallower. Shallower lows indicate a decrease in selling pressure and create a lower support line with less negative slope than the upper resistance line.haha what do you think?  Resistance Break: Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test the newfound support level.well, can't confirm yet, so until then, this guessed pattern is just whimsical and wishful speculation, correct? Volume: While volume is not particularly important on rising wedges, it is an essential ingredient to confirm a falling wedge breakout. Without an expansion of volume, the breakout will lack conviction and be vulnerable to failure.can't confirm yet, right? |
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what if we got a free (or nearly) man-in-the-middle escrow service/app to make it so you can't doublespend from said app's wallet? Kinda like a wallet that you'd load like a giftcard, ie, once a tx is commenced, there is no irreversibility possible because of some special protocol, and that 10 minute no-blocks window doesn't matter anymore? I'd rather trust a reputable man in the middle (a la John K) than leave myself open to the possibility of a double-spend from someone anonymous/you may never see again after walking out the stoer
You've pretty much described Bridgewalker. Wow, thank you for bringing my attention to the service. It's even better |
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So now we have a ton of venture capital, but we need to give it time to build the next round of bitcoin infrastructure which will be stronger than what we had before.
and then.... ROCKET!!!! |
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Honestly I've yet to use qr codes in a practical everyday life sort of way (yet).
Lemme get this straight, you're posting on a bitcoin forum, claiming QR codes have no practical use? Troll harder, buddy. Or join the herd. Ducks are easily herded. Did I say that they have no practical use? So let me get this straight, you're posting on a bitcoin forum, with no reading comprehension skills and a propensity for elitism? Yeah that actually sounds about right so never mind. |
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http://www.androidpolice.com/2013/05/15/dolla-dolla-bill-gmail-can-now-attach-money-to-emails-via-google-wallet/One of the cooler new features of both Gmail and Google Wallet that didn't make it into today's three-hour Google I/O keynote is the new ability to send money to any Gmail contact. Just message or reply to a someone, write something along the lines of "here's your money, dog," and click the Attachments paperclip icon. You'll see a new option among the expanding icons: a dollar sign. Click the dollar sign, and you can send funds straight from Google Wallet. You can literally attach money to an email. How cool is that? EDIT: In other news, Larry Page [Google CEO] wants to 'set aside a part of the world' for unregulated experimentation In response to a question about reducing negativity and focusing on changing the world, Page noted that "the pace of change is increasing" and said that "we haven't adapted systems to deal with that." Specifically, he said that "not all change is good" and said that we need to build "mechanisms to allow experimentation."
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why is the url titled "shut down"
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So, any info on whether BTC purchased via Dwolla+MtGox are subject to forfeiture?
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You can transfer multiple 5000s chunks at once as well.
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finally.
the Silicoin Valley guys are starting to get it.
this is going to be fun.
no time for resting on laurels ... still got the slashdot and zerohedge crowds to bring up to speed (they seem to be quite recalcitrant to adopt the new technology for techno/financial savants) in due time lead and they will follow |
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It seems you haven't heard of these magical things called "QR codes".
Honestly I've yet to use qr codes in a practical everyday life sort of way (yet). most qr codes i've run across are ads to "find out more!" about stuff marketers are trying to pedel in web 2.0 (or like dotcom a decade before) fashion. |
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i think it's a great idea. a digital place to store all your giftcards? I carry a wallet with only slots for three cards so that I will never feel inclined to carry gift or loyalty cards or anything of the sort. an app that can store the code to a gift card i have that can check with corporate account balances would be a total game changer, and would kill all those unoriginal giftcard exchange website ideas my entrepreneurship class had
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My current theory is this: Satoshi works for some three-letters government agency or massive orgnaization with extremely deep pocket, the reasons are listed below.
1. Intelligence agencies such as NSA are known to employ some of the world's best cryptographists, and the job requires you to consider every possible threat and make things bullet-proof, the kind of meticulousness we saw in the Bitcoin protocol.
2. Satoshi went to such great length to conceal his identity, because if it's made public, he may lose his job. He should have talked to his superiors about what he was doing, and since his pet project involved nothing classified, and even contains something probably useful to the intelligence work, he got a "go ahead", but on the condition that he kept his identity a secret, for obvious reasons. And needless to say, the revelation of his identity would not put Bitcoin in a good light.
3. Since these government agencies are extremely well-funded, they probably would not care too much about if their employers are always hard at work, so Satoshi got plenty of time to pursue his own ventures.
I think he's just a normal guy but with the mind of a genius. He saw bitcoins getting bigger and wanted to distance himself from it and wasn't interested in fame. He didn't want to be the one behind bitcoins, he wanted the community to fill that role which it has. or rather, he worked under government-funded projects and authority, and his honed skills and expertise through the experience culminated into what Bitcoin is today? maybe he witnessed something that made him realize how badly society needed what he created? |
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The confirmation process does take time, but the acknowledgement of an issued transaction by the miner network takes only seconds. Given the practical impossibility of double-spending, the presentation of the transaction to the network is a pretty good indication that it will be confirmed. What the confirmation really does is enable the recipient to "spend" the btc received.
This assumes that most transactions are not attempts to double-spend. Does anyone have stats on how many transactions are rejected as double-spend attempts?
Consider that a credit-card approval is also only provisional. It can be reversed for many days after being received. Once a btc transaction is confirmed, it cannot be reversed.
what if we got a free (or nearly) man-in-the-middle escrow service/app to make it so you can't doublespend from said app's wallet? Kinda like a wallet that you'd load like a giftcard, ie, once a tx is commenced, there is no irreversibility possible because of some special protocol, and that 10 minute no-blocks window doesn't matter anymore? I'd rather trust a reputable man in the middle (a la John K) than leave myself open to the possibility of a double-spend from someone anonymous/you may never see again after walking out the stoer |
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Bitcoin introduces some interesting game theory.
Which regulator wants to fail at regulating?
Chilton: you go first. Ben: no, you go. Chilton: no, i said you. Ben: nvm  i like that |
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If something could get you a 1000% return every 3 months on over $100,000, it is either a very successful ponzi scheme, or a scam in my opinion. If a service could provide that everyone would use it, and the creator could just put in his own money and even if he only had 1 btc to start he would get to 90 btc in one year and 8100 the year after...
1000% "return" on the xxxx% gain in price that bitcoin has appreciated to :p |
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