In another thread people are arguing that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins on Thursdays. That could be wrong (perhaps they merely update their accounting weekly on Thursdays). But, assuming that the conjecture is true, here is a theory for the "Thursday dumps": SMBIT are said to buy opportunistically from various sources, but only if and when some investor buys their shares. Perhaps miners and other habitual SMBIT sources hold their bitcoins until Thursday waiting for a possible SMBIT call, and when that doesn't materialize they sell them on market instead. (OK, ok, but it this still not the silliest theory on this thread, is it?) I believe that it would be a bad business practice for any big player trader to publicly disclose any exact details of its buy/sell pattern ahead of time. Accordingly, the logic does NOT make sense that any big player trader would engage in such a before-hand disclosure of such. |
|
|
|
what a fucking joke, the last couple of days some of you were crying all around the place about the rounding up and about Bitstamp ripping customers off, and most of you agreed on the $5 min order, in fact most of you said it should minimize the effect, but today you are crying again about them doing what you wished for !!!!! what the heck is wrong with people  Too much coffee, huh?  By my count, 3 out of 4 posts here welcome the decision. Maybe he got his numbers from another thread? I think I saw a thread related to this bitstamp move earlier davout is pissing me off on the other thread, but we all know why What other thread? Thnx Mmitech. Personally, I like the $5 minimum trade solution - mostly b/c I am a little bit irritated by bots... he he he... |
|
|
|
what a fucking joke, the last couple of days some of you were crying all around the place about the rounding up and about Bitstamp ripping customers off, and most of you agreed on the $5 min order, in fact most of you said it should minimize the effect, but today you are crying again about them doing what you wished for !!!!! what the heck is wrong with people Too much coffee, huh? By my count, 3 out of 4 posts here welcome the decision. Maybe he got his numbers from another thread? I think I saw a thread related to this bitstamp move earlier davout is pissing me off on the other thread, but we all know why What other thread? |
|
|
|
I didn't say a word about China. This is strictly technical. The end of a trend needs to be marked with an increase in volume.
I would not wait for an increase in volume, I don't think it will ever come. Mt Gox ruined that trust, these exchanges are just too amatuer. Nobody feels comfortable putting large amounts of fiat/coins into them anymore. Large buyers and sellers will wait for institutional level exchanges, and in the meantime the buying will happen through Second Market, dark pools, and directly from miners. There won't be an uptick in volume on Bitstamp, the stream of coins coming in for sale will slowly dwindle as the off chain buying increases. You will wait for large volume, but suddenly there will hardly be any coins for sale. Buying on Stamp-level exchanges will be for small fish and last-resort larger traders. Nailed it. So what happens to price under this scenario? Price slowly trickles upward due to lack of coins, without volume? It will trickle slowly at first, because experienced bitcoin traders will scoff at such a low volume rally. Then panic will grow as they notice that the sell walls are not being replaced. Price will then rocket on the low volume of traders who still use these exchanges. The hole these traders will be trying to fit through will be much smaller than anticipated because large buyers have cut off the stream of coins for sale nearer to the source. I really do NOT have any significant dispute with the practice that you are describing; however, I remain concerned that BTC prices seem to continue to be set by the exchanges. Accordingly, it remains easy and inexpensive to transfer BTC around, including quickly transferring BTC to any exchange, and if there is NOT much fiat on these various exchanges, the BTC that is transferred onto the exchanges can purposefully be used to manipulate BTC prices downward. So, even though it may NOT be profitable to sell the BTC on the exchange at the lowered price, BTC could be bought off of the exchanges at the purposefully lowered exchange price. Hopefully someday soon BTC price can be reflected by overall supply and demand of BTC rather than price manipulation that seems to be based on the ease of moving BTC as compared with the difficulties and expense in moving fiat. |
|
|
|
I didn't say a word about China. This is strictly technical. The end of a trend needs to be marked with an increase in volume.
I would not wait for an increase in volume, I don't think it will ever come. Mt Gox ruined that trust, these exchanges are just too amatuer. Nobody feels comfortable putting large amounts of fiat/coins into them anymore. Large buyers and sellers will wait for institutional level exchanges, and in the meantime the buying will happen through Second Market, dark pools, and directly from miners. There won't be an uptick in volume on Bitstamp, the stream of coins coming in for sale will slowly dwindle as the off chain buying increases. You will wait for large volume, but suddenly there will hardly be any coins for sale. Buying on Stamp-level exchanges will be for small fish and last-resort larger traders. Nailed it. So what happens to price under this scenario? Price slowly trickles upward due to lack of coins, without volume? |
|
|
|
I keep waiting and waiting for my cheap coins and dumbass politicians do something to convince the world that they are going to screw up everything they can screw up and Bitcoin is needed more than ever.
The waiting is over: JPMorgan Shut Down A World-Famous Economist's Bank Account With No Warning http://www.businessinsider.com/jpm-shuts-down-ocampos-bank-account-2014-5 Heh, this JP Morgan Chase thing is fascinating. They are shutting down "high risk" accounts, which essentially translates to anyone not meeting the status quo, I guess. The definition of "high risk" is probably going to become really fuzzy soon (more so than now), as they realize that it's in their best interest to freeze pretty much any account. High balance accounts provide them with free liquidity which they can play with until the entire process is resolved, while low balance accounts threaten to take them in the red otherwise, and have their own maintenance costs associated. The best part is, it's all state sanctioned! They've essentially made themselves immune to a bank run, at the cost of perhaps driving away some customers to the competition. But what are customers during a run on banks? Liabilities. With quantitative easing and fractional reserve banking, they really do NOT need customers. We are redundant, and that is one of the reasons why they charge us to use their bank and to keep our money there or possibly, if we are lucky and keep large sums of money with them, they will pay us .001% interest on our balances. |
|
|
|
Seems like a losing strategy to wait for the best possible price to buy BTC. Seems better (and safer) to buy BTC as the price is going down. Even though you may NOT minimize your average price per BTC, at least you will NOT be chasing the price up or be left at the train station.
Translation: Contrary to the advice of almost every experienced trader, trying to call the bottom is a good idea. *edit* And I bought a lot of bitcoin at much higher price and desperately need the support of greater fools. Your "translation" makes LITTLE to NO sense, and seems to be an attempt to be argumentative b/c you seem to be butt hurt that BTC is NOT going to zero or to double digits or anywhere near those prices that you have been projecting. You seem to have unrealistic and overly pessimistic views about the long term potentials for BTC, which makes me wonder why you participate in this thread? Are you trying to "save" us from bitcoin or do you merely get joy in the spreading of FUD? My comment in the above post is NOT based on my own position in BTC. I am saying what I believe to be a good BTC investment strategy for someone who wants to get into BTC. In sum, invest in BTC on the way down, b/c currently BTC prices are good and inevitably in the medium term they will be going up (likely this calendar year or even within the coming months). I am NEITHER biased by NOR worried about my own position in BTC (currently average buy-in price of $599) either b/c I am in BTC long, and I have considerable confidence that BTC is on its way up, at least in the next couple of years (or sooner) and that fairly easily BTC prices will go above my average buy-in price of $599. Accordingly, I feel that I do NOT need to convince anyone else to buy into BTC b/c it seems very likely that BTC prices will be going up - NO matter what I say.. As you may or may NOT have heard, there is network momentum with BTC that will likely continue to cause exponential growth in BTC prices - whether that growth is 10x (as it has been historically in the last 4 years) or 2x (which is more modest), I am fairly confident that some form of exponential growth in BTC will continue to take place. I am more inclined to think that exponential growth will be 2x to 5x in the next few years rather than 10x, as it had been. Yet, my investment in BTC does NOT rely upon exponential growth b/c I invested only as much as I am willing to lose. I would be completely happy with BTC performance that beats my average stock index fund returns (which is about 6% per year), yet in my view, even if BTC does NOT meet or beat that 6% per year, for me, it remains a diversified investment in my portfolio that is worth the risk b/c of a considerable upside potential. You are a fool who wastes many words. And, you are profound and pithy. I'm impressed.  |
|
|
|
Seems like a losing strategy to wait for the best possible price to buy BTC. Seems better (and safer) to buy BTC as the price is going down. Even though you may NOT minimize your average price per BTC, at least you will NOT be chasing the price up or be left at the train station.
Translation: Contrary to the advice of almost every experienced trader, trying to call the bottom is a good idea. *edit* And I bought a lot of bitcoin at much higher price and desperately need the support of greater fools. Your "translation" makes LITTLE to NO sense, and seems to be an attempt to be argumentative b/c you seem to be butt hurt that BTC is NOT going to zero or to double digits or anywhere near those prices that you have been projecting. You seem to have unrealistic and overly pessimistic views about the long term potentials for BTC, which makes me wonder why you participate in this thread? Are you trying to "save" us from bitcoin or do you merely get joy in the spreading of FUD? My comment in the above post is NOT based on my own position in BTC. I am saying what I believe to be a good BTC investment strategy for someone who wants to get into BTC. In sum, invest in BTC on the way down, b/c currently BTC prices are good and inevitably in the medium term they will be going up (likely this calendar year or even within the coming months). I am NEITHER biased by NOR worried about my own position in BTC (currently average buy-in price of $599) either b/c I am in BTC long, and I have considerable confidence that BTC is on its way up, at least in the next couple of years (or sooner) and that fairly easily BTC prices will go above my average buy-in price of $599. Accordingly, I feel that I do NOT need to convince anyone else to buy into BTC b/c it seems very likely that BTC prices will be going up - NO matter what I say.. As you may or may NOT have heard, there is network momentum with BTC that will likely continue to cause exponential growth in BTC prices - whether that growth is 10x (as it has been historically in the last 4 years) or 2x (which is more modest), I am fairly confident that some form of exponential growth in BTC will continue to take place. I am more inclined to think that exponential growth will be 2x to 5x in the next few years rather than 10x, as it had been. Yet, my investment in BTC does NOT rely upon exponential growth b/c I invested only as much as I am willing to lose. I would be completely happy with BTC performance that beats my average stock index fund returns (which is about 6% per year), yet in my view, even if BTC does NOT meet or beat that 6% per year, for me, it remains a diversified investment in my portfolio that is worth the risk b/c of a considerable upside potential. |
|
|
|
Isn't it 1h am in china ? They don't sleep ?
usually things append around 8h am chinese time no ?
We are ignoring China now. They can join us or get left behind.  I don't think so. High volume on all the exchanges. yes, now, but when I look the charts, it seems that the last big dump moove were in the morning around 6-8h am chinese time...And usually quite at this evening time... May the gravity law be the stronger, I want to buy some coins at good price before I die ! It could very well be a "good price" right now. Please no ! I'm loosing my hair ! Was about to buy at 420 ( trigger at 403 ) And I'm waiting for a good pump...Is it make me what you call a bear ( beer ? ) EDIT : waiting for a dump, not a pump. Seems like a losing strategy to wait for the best possible price to buy BTC. Seems better (and safer) to buy BTC as the price is going down. Even though you may NOT minimize your average price per BTC, at least you will NOT be chasing the price up or be left at the train station. |
|
|
|
PBOC can't kill bitcoin. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
I agree with this, but in the short term that which doesn't kill you makes you cheaper. I used to agree with this, until a few years ago. I no longer believe that statement to be true. |
|
|
|
NOTE: There is nothing notable today.
I thought Adam asking you to get some skin in the game was notable Not drinking while playing the drinking game is cause for suspicion. Please suspiciate at will. As I said many times, I will buy bitcoin if and when I believe that it will be worth the trouble, compared to credit card etc. I will not buy "just to try", not for investment, not "just in case it becomes worth a zillion some day". (By the way, I consider that last argument a sleazy sales trick to get thousands of small buyers, not only to raise the price - 100'000 people buying 0.1 BTC is 10'000 BTC taken off the market - but also to claim "increasing adoption".) Your position is a little bit ridiculous, Jorge. In essence you are claiming that you do NOT want to be a pawn of the bitcoin system. You need to invest at least .1BTC in bitcoin.. just to experience it.... and to be a more credible scholar. Your supposed sitting on the sidelines and preserving objectivity makes little to no sense.... and surely you are smarter than that. So dig in and become more invoremed and become more credible in the BTC world. |
|
|
|
As far as i know we had bubbles of comparable magnitude before, with or without China.
The evolution of the BTC price since Oct/2013 can be explained in terms of Chinese events only, and does not seem to react to any events outside China. Even the Feb/10 drop related to MtGOX was probably due to Mark's claim of a 'bug in the protocol' rather than the dealings of MtGOX itself. So it is hard to deny that the rise from ~100$ to ~1000$ and the current ~450$ are entirely due to the Chinese market. If we consider percentual increase in price, indeed there were comparable bubbles before. If we consider total demand for BTC, China was about 10x all the previous bubbles combined. You are talking baloney, Jorge, by attempting to give so much weight to China. Surely they have had an effect on price, but the effect is NOT as big as you seem to be making it out to be. Even you were GOX obsessed for several weeks, and NOW you are China obsessed b/c you seem to be turning this subject and spin into a form of FUD spreading. |
|
|
|
I saw that too. It seems pretty last minute and pretty bearish. Yea, the BTC Summit is going to be a bust. The earlier advertisement of the BTC Summit that I saw a few weeks ago had listed several prominent members of the various exchanges as presenters. The most recent listing of presenters showed only a couple of prominent presenters. They won't need a very big room, and maybe they will NOT need any break out sessions. The big name presenters may run out of things to say after half a day, and they will just have question / answer sessions. |
|
|
|
I saw that too. It seems pretty last minute and pretty bearish. |
|
|
|
Great, that stupid POS news killed all the great downward momentum, now it is back to playing the waiting game...  Kinda what I was thinking. The market's been high on Hopium for a damn month. No reason for it. Hangover's gonna be a bitch. Hopium. That's the ideal word for it. The market reacts like its the worlds last bitcoin, everytime it has the slightest reason to. Meanwhile, no new fiat is coming in and traders are just passing coins back and forth while money slowly leaves the exchanges. Hopium. I concede that I have that affliction, too. |
|
|
|
I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...
You accumulate better if you short from time to time Yes, in theory shorting could be profitable. However, NOT a good time to short now b/c BTC prices seem to be way below the BTC price trend line. In this regard, it can be good to short when btc prices are above the trend line and to buy when btc prices are below the trendline. Certainly, we have a variety of views concerning where is the trendline, exactly. Personally, I am NOT very sophisticated in my trading, but I would put the current BTC trendline in the $650 to $850 arena. I have seen others making claims that the btc trend line is much higher than what I am saying. You could also assess the BTC trendline to be much lower; nonetheless, at $425-ish, in many accounts of the trendline, we are still much below the trendline.. IN sum, this particular moment does NOT appear to be a good time to short - absent some certain news that BTC prices are going to go down by 5-15%. i have NOT seen any such news, even though I have seen considerable fear mongering in that direction to suggest that for sure BTC prices are going down. I remain NOT very confident in such a prediction. Do not try and bend the trendline. That's impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth. What truth? There is no trendline. A trendline, to the extent to which it exists, becomes more apparent after the passage of time, and you could be correct that there is NO trendline. I am putting my money on that there is a trendline and BTC prices are going to move up. How about you? Are you putting any money into BTC? So far, I am NOT putting more money into BTC than I am willing to lose, but I am putting in more than I had originally planned to put in.... The reason that I am putting more into BTC is b/c I am more informed about bitcoin today than I was 5 months ago. |
|
|
|
I am just going to view this bear phase as the accumulation phase...as that really seems to be underlying theme...
You accumulate better if you short from time to time Yes, in theory shorting could be profitable. However, NOT a good time to short now b/c BTC prices seem to be way below the BTC price trend line. In this regard, it can be good to short when btc prices are above the trend line and to buy when btc prices are below the trendline. Certainly, we have a variety of views concerning where is the trendline, exactly. Personally, I am NOT very sophisticated in my trading, but I would put the current BTC trendline in the $650 to $850 arena. I have seen others making claims that the btc trend line is much higher than what I am saying. You could also assess the BTC trendline to be much lower; nonetheless, at $425-ish, in many accounts of the trendline, we are still much below the trendline.. IN sum, this particular moment does NOT appear to be a good time to short - absent some certain news that BTC prices are going to go down by 5-15%. i have NOT seen any such news, even though I have seen considerable fear mongering in that direction to suggest that for sure BTC prices are going down. I remain NOT very confident in such a prediction. |
|
|
|
To respond to my earlier comment, I felt bad about ignoring you cause..there really was no reason.. lol ..and in your first response to my post you understood my meaning 100%. So in honor of that, though you may not care, have earned life time un-ignored status...But yea more tolerance for walls of text as trolls just usually post cheap ass one liners!
That is pretty hilarious... to achieve reversal of ignore status. I can definitely appreciate that people get frustrated with the numerous posts in this thread that seem to meander. I try to make my post substantive and contributory, yet I understand that sometimes, my posts will turn people off - especially if they are responding to some random matter that does NOT even seem to relate to the theme of the thread. Sorry Adam... hahahaha . I was reading through the article at yeah it really does scream hey we need bitcoin cause we're just stepping over constitutional rights life right and center..and then oh hey a Corporation broke the law...ahh fuck it.. fine em their daily lunch money.
All three articles tend to show a pattern of behavior in which the connected people tend to get away with a lot more than the unconnected people. I appreciate that in theory, bitcoin and other crypto-currencies can disrupt the policies, practices and procedures of the status quo institutions, yet the achievement of more "just" institutions and practices is NOT a given. I think that a lot of people who are into bitcoin recognize ways in which bitcoin can address some of the injustices of society, yet many of us hopefully "early" adopters also believe that appreciation of bitcoin prices could also help us personally to be financially above the fray, to some extent. I personally believe that we need to remain somewhat sophisticated in our participation in and our approach to bitcoin by diversifying our assets and investments in such a way that we can hopefully profit from the adoption of bitcoin while at the same time take safeguards from being an easy target of various governmental and/or institutional hostilities when we are attempting to advocate, employ or apply the disruptive aspects of bitcoin. |
|
|
|
They really seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth... and accordingly engaging in selective enforcement tactics, which is NOT anything new.. to pick off the most vulnerable in society and pick off the most easy to target folks. The government is not monolithic. There are many conflicting programs to make home buying both more affordable and more expensive at the same time for example. Actually the latter programs are supposed to prop up home prices, but that makes them less affordable to new purchasers. Every bureaucrat is a tin pot dictator within his own fiefdom and the unintended consequences on the other bureaucrats cause the conflict. (This is how we win eventually). I believe that you are again changing the subject - b/c I made my statement in response to the articles links referenced by Aminorex's post. I am still a little bit unclear about the point that Aminorex was attempting to make by posting the links to those articles. BJA: I agree with your point that the govt is NOT monolithic.. but I remain unclear about the relevance of your "tin pot dictator" assessment or your suggestion that "we" are attempting to win something - which seems to be referring to transitioning to libertarianism... and those latter points, though interesting in themselves do NOT seem to be the reason that Aminorex referenced those articles. We're not just transitioning to libertarianism. That's far too mild. We're transitioning to crypto-anarchy, but it's going to be a long bloody struggle. The governments are aiding in this transition with their ham-fisted attempts at controlling the uncontrollable. We're giving the people the supply and the government is providing the demand. I know how crazy culty insane it appears to the uninitiated, but we are going to rebuild civilization itself, stronger faster better like the six million dollar man. We have the technology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wntX-a3jSYI do agree with you to the extent that we seem to be transitioning into some uncertain state of affairs that could get messy b/c of the fact that bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) are disruptive to the status quo. Certainly, I do NOT feel that I have a very clear vision regarding how the struggle is going to play out, and I would NOT put it past various governmental and corporate institutions to engage in various co-optation tactics. There will also be areas in which these entities are NOT able to co-opt and areas of ambiguity in which some semblance of freedom could prevail. I would NOT want to predict too soon about whether and/or who suffers bloody battles or paradise(s) within this evolving new social order... but we likely know that the haves and the haves not tend to come out differently with any evolving change to the status quo. |
|
|
|
Let's panic sell because we didn't see this coming.
And make sure to follow a dying exchange all the way down. Go idiots go!
On this volume there is very little panic selling...yet. It's gonna have to get a lot panicier before I even start buying. I do NOT have a whole hell-of-a-lot of fiat to spare, but I would prefer to buy a little more BTC. About an hour ago, I bought some at $421, and I would buy more, but I want to save my Fiat in the event that prices go below $400.... I really have my doubts, but who knows? I have been thinking that maybe the downward trend would last only until 5/10 - then we will get some kind of positive or at least some neutral announcement in connection with the global bitcoin summit in shanghai on that 5/10 date? That will be a real bummer for china and their 5/10 bitcoin summit if they are merely having presentations about all the bad BTC news in china... |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
