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2981  Economy / Speculation / How to build a forecasting model using LSTM on: February 22, 2022, 12:19:14 PM
A forecasting model helps in the forecasting of prices or even sales in an organization or company. But, it can also be used to forecast bitcoin prices with the help of RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) if you follow the steps in this post you will gain the source code for predicting bitcoin Price which can then be implemented on the forecasting model.

But, this Model is general and not specifically meant for bitcoin price but the process is poison and the underlying process can be the prediction of the bitcoin price. So the aim is to be able to forecast values in poison process that has cyclic fluctuation in the underlying process. Poison process can be used to solve many mathematical problems in the blockchain Network. Since forecasting is based on determining DATA the model used by the Author is ARIMA and LTSM model which will help to forecast next actual data point.

Poison Modeling Using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory)

Code:
import math
import numpy
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from src.poisson import Poisson
from src.lstm import LSTM
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
%matplotlib inline
%autosave False

Example Of Poison Process

Code:
p = Poisson()
example, _ = p.generate(6)

plt.figure(figsize=(20,7))
plt.plot(example)

Result: [<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7feed62121d0>]




Train LSTM Model on a Larger Data set


Code:
t1, _ = p.generate(10000)
t2, _ = p.generate(10000,2)
train = t1 + t2
l = LSTM()
l.train(train, 6)


Apply the LSTM model to a new data set that is more varied


Code:
a1, _ = p.generate(4)
a2, _ = p.generate(2,2)
a3, _ = p.generate(4)
a4, _ = p.generate(1,2)
actual = numpy.concatenate((a1,a2,a3,a4))

pred = l.predict(actual)
#pred = [x-8.5 for x in pred]

Plot The Prediction

Code:
actual = actual[72:-1]
error = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(pred, actual))

plt.figure(figsize=(20,7))
plt.title('RMSE: {:.2f}'.format(error))
plt.plot(actual)
plt.plot(pred)

Result: [<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7fef3f1acf50>]



Evaluate The Residual (The remaining values)
Code:
residual = []
for i in range(len(actual)):
    val = actual[i] - pred[i]
    residual.append(val)

plt.figure(figsize=(20,7))
plt.plot(residual)

Result: [<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7feed003f410>]



It's important to know that LSTM cannot function in all cases without a problem but, can be implemented on a less constrained data and it'll have lesser problems. While the ARIMA model performs better in forecasting data provided it remains compatible with the underlying process.

Source: https://github.com/ColinShaw/cyclic-poisson-forecasting-models/blob/master/LSTM.ipynb
2982  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Words of advice on: February 20, 2022, 10:25:35 PM
Don't keep a huge amount of your coin on any exchange it looks like storing your luggages in a hotel while they got the keys to the room and feel that your belongings are safe. Same thing is applicable to cryptocurrency, exchanges feels safe but, anything can occur along the line and they will be nobody to meet for safety. If possible change the password to your wallet every week, that is if you feel cool about that. Secure your bank the way bankers do to the banking hall.
2983  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: I lost +$ 20k in future, advice for newbies on: February 20, 2022, 10:11:50 PM
Well Op, they are things you shouldn't risk for cryptcocurrency, such as; your wife's happiness, shelter, and health. When next you want to future trade a hooping amount of money make sure every important aspect of your life is fixed. Even if the results plays out to be negative you'll have other things to fall back to. Now, you lost the house, coin and your wife's joy. The home will be unbearable for you, because you don't know how to explain to your wife about the sudden disappearance of the money you borrowed from the bank.

Failure doesn't determine the end, since you have lost so much on cryptocurrency trading, don't stop right there put in some time in learning from experts on how to trade. In this market time is crucial, trade your time first before the money. By doing so you'll have enough experience from what you've read and it'll serve as a guide towards any activity you want to make on an exchange. I'll urge you to explain everything to your wife, apologize to her and promise her that given time the money lost will be replenished. Let her see it as an investment and you'll find yourself coming back stronger and wiser to the market.

2984  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin recovery agent on: February 20, 2022, 09:43:44 PM
OP, it's a pity you lost such amount of bitcoin in USD, what actually happened what kind of transaction led to the scam. Please share on the thread so that other newbies can learn from your mistake. For the service you are seeking, I don't think they'll be any possible means of reversing your funds. The transaction has been confirmed multiple times on the blockchain.
2985  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Question on: February 20, 2022, 09:25:33 PM
They are others ways of making money out of steemit rather than writing, since the comments here can discourage you from using steemit I'll say that the other option for you is to sell steemit verified accounts, it's a good market if you know how to get around things. To get a verified steemit account is very difficult for some people and if it's impossible for you then try reselling the account from well known steemit account vendors. This way you can build a website for the service and start ranking on google. Given a few months or years you'll make more money compared to starting from scratch as a steemit writer.
2986  Economy / Services / Re: Cryptolottery.BET | Looking for promoters (affiliates) on: February 20, 2022, 09:12:48 PM
Your promotion method looks like a ponzi to me but,the payout is too good but will be difficult to achieve because getting people that will deposit $100 at a go is not simple and it'll require top notched information about the platform. I saw comments above asking about you and the site owner so that people who are getting referred to the site can get a handful of information before investing their money. People are very careful these days about sites with little or no review. Moreover, what's your offer for the SMM services I have interest on that. You can Send me a message on about it.
2987  Economy / Gambling discussion / How to calculate Gross gaming revenue for online casino on: February 20, 2022, 08:58:22 PM
Recently, I checked out some key point indicators in the online casino. First, I thought some game providers get their share via percentage of spin a player makes but, today after a brief research I found the formula for Gross gaming revenue used to determine how game providers earn from the activities of players.

Formula

GGR= A – B

A - Is the total amount of all bets placed by players
B - The sum of all payments made to players

E.g:

At the end of 2021 stake casino players made bets on $4,000,000 and won $1,500,000.

To calculate the GGR

A= $4,000,000
B= $1,500,000

GGR = $4,000,000 - 1,500,000 = $2,500,000

Task

Solve for NGR (Net Gross Revenue) if the total amount of bonus shared on stake is $500,000, and Stake pays 15% Tax on GGR.

NGR is the basic profits share collected by the casino per month.

Formula

A – B – C – D

Note: C= The sum of all bonuses revived by players
while D = Total of all taxes

To solve for D multiply $2,500,000 by 15%

Goodluck. I learnt something new today, and I'm not alone. Cheers.

Read for clarification, where I got my inspiration
2988  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A peculiar Response to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on: February 20, 2022, 08:16:36 AM
It's the perfect moment for Nonchuk to go viral since they are a new tech firm. They have the best strategy of getting people's attention on the internet through such mail with a funny reply trying to belittle the Government regarding such a request that sounds like they know nothing about private keys and blockchain protocols. Although, Nonchuk have been of good support to the truckers' movement.

They'll do the necessary things to see that protesters continue utilizing their platform to store their funds using multi-sig. The court only needs them to do what they requested before they can go free because they won't stop disturbing them until they find a way to confiscate the funds as requested. The citizens have the right to such a movement. But, the Government is the same everywhere. They deprive citizens of their fundamental human rights all the time. It'll be genuine to say that the Government can hold Nonchuk responsible for supporting the movement.
2989  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2020/21 on: February 20, 2022, 06:53:52 AM
Real Madrid played a nice game yesterday but, I enjoyed the goals of  Atletico Madrid against Osasuna Fc. How they stationed their wingers and attackers shows that Atletico Madrid still has chances to top the league table although Real Madrid is 15 points ahead of them which makes up a huge difference and a reason why many people points at Real Madrid FC as the team that will lift the La Liga Cup regarding the number of Matches left for the game to be over. If Real Madrid continues with this same effort they'll remain number 1 on Table but they still have a long way to go though. I still vouch for ATM because they have a better come back to their matches.
2990  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: FUD seems to be majorly targeted towards well perfoming assets like Bitcoin. on: February 20, 2022, 06:38:43 AM
Looking at the current situation of paypal it shows a massive decline by customers who doesn't want to make use of the platform out of the conditions attached to the platform.The CEO said that inflation affected the platform. Why the news is not trending on the internet like that of bitcoin is because some people didn't lose money, that's those that hold their money on the platform. But, the share holders are facing a serious downside of their investment which the CEO promised to get things fixed at the second quarter of 2022.

He also said that they was millions of illegitimate paypal accounts created by users which made it unable for them to control their guidance.

Quote
PayPal also missed user growth targets due in part to 4.5 million “illegitimate” accounts that joined the platform, which “affected our ability to achieve our guidance in the quarter,” CFO John Rainey said.

These are Some criterion that keeps a decentralized network like bitcoin better than other payment platforms. No one cares about Illegitimate accounts the market is moderated by the blockchain protocols and it cannot affect the price of bitcoin in any means.

Regarding your question Op, they are a bunch of top sites that lifted the Paypal news although it's not trending like that of bitcoin but, the news is all over the internet as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/paypal-stock-falls-after-company-blames-inflation-for-weak-guidance.html
2991  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: BTC smart watch NFT on: February 20, 2022, 06:08:05 AM
Hi Op, Your art is fine but the color of the watch makes it difficult for me to recognize that it's a watch. Unlike the other collections with black color. Consider polishing the watch to have the bitcoin logo in a suitable color that will explain to people that it's a watch at a glance. The idea is fine and sell-able keep it up. 
2992  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin Basics on: February 19, 2022, 02:26:26 PM
The first basics of bitcoin is to know the network that controls the affairs of bitcoin. Sending and receiving of bitcoin is done on the blockchain network. Do not see bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme and the more you choose to learn about bitcoin the better for you. Because bitcoin is filled with multiple of knowledge that's yet to be learnt by it's users. So, if you care to know much about bitcoin, you'll be compelled to browse the forum on regular basis to understand how the network works. Another basic you need to know is that the capital B is different from the small b in bitcoin terms. Capital B means the Blockchain network, and the small b means the coin. Therefore when you see Bitcoin it means blockchain network while bitcoin is meant for the coin. cheers.
2993  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Twitter now supports Ethereum wallets on: February 19, 2022, 01:39:14 AM
Quote
I will see who the hell people who will pay around $20 fees to send a few dollars of ethereum that can't be withdrawn.

If the Ethereum cannot get withdrawn then what's the essence of implementing the tipping feature? Is it a way to publicize Ethereum on twitter or just a gradual step that will get resolved, soon it can be withdrawn. Besides, the countries where the feature are supported like India are tech countries that already know about Ethereum and as a form of publicity it'll yield a brief result for the cryptocurrency. Actually, I don't see a good reason for this feature though, especially if it can't get withdrawn regardless of the Gas fee.
2994  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Drake Wagered $1.3 million in super bowl bet using bitcoin on: February 19, 2022, 01:23:50 AM
As far as I know he wasn't paid by stake to share his bet but during the livestream that is run on the weekend Eddie the owner of Stake did mention about the bet placed by their user account but not by name. Those who are frequent players on the platform know who he is on there due to his (user)name being mentioned on the chat numerous times.
Even if he didn't want it known how much he has wagered on a bet like this, the news media has already made it public from this report put out by bloomberg the financial outlet's cryptocurrency section:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-64mYm02nYk
Maybe mentioning the name of a celebrity inside his own casino is not allowed? Because, people would go crazy if the owner's says that or maybe he is just being humble there and he do not want other gamblers to know that there is a celebrity playing on his casino except for the people that already know it via the public chat. I didn't check the video but is the video posted first before drake posted his bets on public?

We don't need to worry about this guy's security because he have lots of body guards and normal guards in his house. This bet alone is not the only thing or the last thing that he will flex but there are more to come.

Drake did not make his fortune from gambling he is a rapper and a performer and he commands a huge price for every concert that he's been doing, in fact, there are reports that he loses a lot from gambling, and what about those unreported we really don't know his losses and his winnings for all we know he is not only playing on Stake.com, Drake is a compulsive gambler no remorse if he losses millions, we never know if one day he becomes broke from gambling.

That's a negative thing, just because he is gambling millions doesn't mean he would go broke, what if the guy is winning? and what if the guy can afford the amount he is gambling? I know Mayweather is also gambling million of dollars, but look where he is now, he still financially free and been making money from his boxing promotions.

As for all I know, Drake is a big partner of Stake and he cannot go broke by betting on stake, because he'll still get rewarded for posting stake on his Instagram page with millions of organic followers that will end up using Stake because of Drake. I'm a huge fan of Drake and I know how other fans of his feel whenever he affiliates a product on his Instagram page. Many of them will search for stake and bitcoin at same time. Moreover, they are other means that drake will recover his funds even if his bet doesn't win him money. He got millions of streams on spotify, youtube and apple music play these streaming platforms fetch him regular incomes as a rapper in the US.
2995  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.com.au in probelms for unwanted gambling advertising on: February 19, 2022, 01:03:48 AM
checked the link to the article and read that the institution in control of spam in Australia is taking such step to stop young misinformed people from going into gambling. They is a high degree of people that commit suicide because of gambling, especially those that gambled with the loan they took from the bank. Such dispute in a country should be looked into by the Government and its the reason why the betting company got charged of a huge sum of money for misleading over 3000 citizens that read the spam messages including youths who are not interested in gambling. On the other hand, the sport bet company have accepted to handle the bills and as also suspended email marketing at the moment.
2996  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador positions itself as the first Bitcoin city at Expo2020 in Dubai on: February 19, 2022, 12:42:33 AM
While watching the video I remembered that a bitcoin city will increase number of Bitcoin ATMs in the world as so many will be installed in such city for people to use. Bitcoin, is almost a global term and many countries are looking for a means to diversify their economy towards the potentials of the digital currency. I always think of a city like this, that will be tax free, such that the Government can employ lots of bitcoin miners in the city and provide enough power for them to mine and they'll take the daily rewards or fees as tax from the citizens. If such an Idealogy gets deployed in the bitcoin city then such city will get completely decentralized and few people will have a little to do with fiat and many people will transact using bitcoin to provide tax for the Government through transaction fees.
2997  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How I convinced a Stock Trader to Invest in Bitcoin on: February 19, 2022, 12:26:21 AM
I think your uncle became so much interested in bitcoin the moment he discovered his Nephew will walk him through the whole market and teach him how things work out. As a stock trader, the terms may sound different but, may share same meaning to him. Despite the volatility he still fell in love with the market because he is used to that in the stock market. So, what we do at the cryptocurrency market is almost the same with other markets like the stock market. OP, I would want to know if he shared some similarities with you between crypto market and the stock market? they will be a lot to learn from such similar comparison.
2998  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: JPMorgan Is the First Bank Into the Metaverse, Looks at Business Opportunities on: February 17, 2022, 11:48:49 PM
JPmorgan not accepting bitcoin doesn't mean that they won't jump into the biggest technology in the world. The virtual reality is (Metaverse) booming and buying a lounge in the decentraland ecosystem is a way of being part of the project and they will make profits out of their investment. Good investors like the banking firms always look for a means to invest other people's money. Since a lot of funds is been locked into compound interest, I think the bank always look for a means to use those funds for quick profits. 
2999  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bear vs Bull : The Beauty Of Cryptocurrency on: February 17, 2022, 11:21:15 PM
The bear market serves as the best time for more people to get hold of bitcoin or other cryptocurrency at a cheaper rate. While the bull market is a way to reward people who held through the bearish time either by hodl or buying the dip. So, the both terms helps the market and without these two phenomenon the cryptocurrency market will not circulate properly. The image is self explanatory and people should learn through such phrases that makes it easier for people to understand how the market works. 
3000  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ukraine Just Legalized Bitcoin on: February 17, 2022, 11:09:12 PM
Bitcoin is a safe haven for countries that have Eco's of war. But, it's not a new thing when Government Ban or Legalize bitcoin because people can still utilize their coins in different manners in the country where it's legalized or banned. Ukraine will see no much changes in their economy despite the recent news about bitcoin. I don't think it's something to celebrate though, unless for the few other citizens of Ukraine that will start using bitcoin for the first time in the country.
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