watching the price of bitcoin is like watching "how I met your mother", you get pissed because of not knowing the mother but at the same time you do not want to know who is the mother because simply the show will end  Read up on Schrödinger's Cat, it is a thought experiment in a similar vein, it will blow your mind  . I am trying to understand the experiment but Quantum physic in general is one of the things that I want to spend more time to study ( try to understand ).... thank you for the link already bookmarked it to read the full article later. this is a little off-topic, but physics is my thing, and i'd love to try to give a layman's interpretation of such a technical thought experiment  the idea is that the classic notion of determinism, that one can use trajectory and velocity and momentum to determine the future state of a given system (similarly to how one judges and executes shots on a pool table), breaks down completely on small enough scales. in pool each of the balls has a definite location. you can strike one, giving it a definite velocity in a definite direction and with practice pretty handily work backwards through the physics that governs the behavior of the balls and, remarkably consistently, make difficult shots. if the pool table were the size of an atom, however, and the balls were subatomic particles, the game would be significantly harder. the early pioneers of quantum mechanics (quantum meaning "unit", like the indivisible subatomic particles) realized quickly that the smaller something is, the more strangely it behaved when they tried to "find" it -- that is, determine its location. it turns out that nothing has a definite location, which is hard to wrap one's head around, but for small things at small scales it's very obvious and a whole new physics needed to be developed. when measuring an electron, for instance, its location seemed to correspond with the amplitude of a wave, with different probabilities of finding the particle in a certain location corresponding to the amplitude of the wave at different points. this, incidentally, is the basis of Schrodinger's Equation, which formalized de Broglie's work. in the image i linked, the sharp and pointy distribution corresponds to a very massive thing, like a billiard-ball, whose location is much more definite than a very light thing, like an electron (lighter by about 30 orders of magnitude!), about which it isn't an exaggeration to say that it could be anywhere in the universe. this brings us to the star of Schrodinger's thought experiment, a heavy atom undergoing radioactive decay. one of the insights that quantum mechanics gave us is an explanation of this strange phenomenon. some atoms, for reasons previously unknown, randomly and violently ejected bits of the nucleus from time to time. the strangest thing about this is that is is impossible to know exactly when this event would occur for a single atom, but groups of the same isotope always obey a half-life rule, such that after one half-life (a constant) for a given isotope has passed, exactly half of a given sample of isotope will have decayed. sounds like quantum weirdness, doesn't it? that's because it is! what's actually happening is that the particles in the nucleus suddenly find themselves outside of it and are ejected away by the electrostatic force that causes protons to repel each other. weird. but this leaves us in a quagmire of conceptualization. is it really true that the deterministic world we perceive is really made up of unfathomable masses of fuzzy, random, indistinct processes? Schrodinger tried to bridge the gap to demonstrate just how weird the implications of this are. if we arrange things so that the radioactive decay of an atom, for which it is literally impossible to know whether or not it has decayed after a certain time t, is tied to a mechanism that will kill a cat (why a cat? ask Schrodinger), then we end up in a situation in which the entire state of the box becomes quantumly uncertain. generally, we model this uncertainty on the subatomic scale as a superposition of every possibility, i.e. a probability curve, but it seems extremely counterintuitive to try to conceptualize the contents of the box as a superposition of live cat and dead cat (and if time t is the isotope's half-life, the chances are exactly 50-50!). anyway, i hope you appreciated the explanation i tried to give a complete picture of the conceptual underpinnings without going into too much detail. lots of good vocabulary to wiki for future inquiries, too! --arepo Very good write up. Not the first one I've read, but one of the better ones for sure. Thanks. |
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and what comes to track record in trading, i think that oda.krell example has quite a lot better record than you do, hes predictions has been very good and to guys out there i strongly suggest that you listen him over pietila
Thanks, but I actually made a lot of bad calls really, and often remain rather vague. One thing is different though: I try to keep some amount skepticism about my own predictions intact. Rpietla on the other hand doesn't seem to know word "self doubt"... Meh. I should really stop paying him any attention, it's just not worth it. |
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Full blown correction down to below 400 (i.e. sub 400 for daily average, not just a 1 hour dip to 380 or so) seems unlikely right now, given the market's reaction whenever we fell to that point.
he didn't say that. he did say that if some of loaded clients needs money or forces loaded to sell their bitcoin, in the execs of 10 000 BTC, it will take the price down to $400. That does not mean that the price will stay at $400. Hm, no. He claimed it makes very little sense to "buy above 400". That only makes sense if there is a substantial *trend* aiming for sub-400 coins. Take the silk road bust flash crash: price dipped drastically, but that didn't really make a dent in the short term average valuation. In fact, it was the beginning of a huge uptrend (obviously also influenced by China). Anyway, brief dips to a certain level are unimportant except for a few lucky traders who buy (or the unlucky ones who sell at the bottom). But talking about "prices that don't make sense" isn't about quick crashes that recover almost immediately, but trends with some amount of staying power. And, as I said, I see little evidence for a trend that takes us to sub 400 and makes us stay there. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but the evidence so far points towards a range between 500 and 1000 for the near future (dips nonwithstanding) |
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Instead of quoting and making insults, why don't you just count your BTC and learn from them who have more??  Don't kid yourself, please. I'm confident that if we play the dick waving game (address under your control comprised of personally owned, not managed, funds), I'm not going to be behind much, if at all. You mainly talk big, but in biological terms, you're a tuna, not a whale. |
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What Loaded meant is that he has loads of customers who bought at $10-$100 and are eager to take part in Bitcoin's profits, but do not care about suffering its downtrends. He need to unload perhaps 10,000s of coins and is doing a good job manipulating the market to look like a good opportunity for the small traders to buy in. To sell the coins at this thin market a crash is required - there is just not enough volume in the updays.
In general, there is very little buying interest above $400. The smart money knows when there is more air in the bubble and has no problem waiting for not only realistic valuation but preferably despair.
Quoted for future reference, to point out you where wrong one more time with your countless inaccurate predictions. Full blown correction down to below 400 (i.e. sub 400 for daily average, not just a 1 hour dip to 380 or so) seems unlikely right now, given the market's reaction whenever we fell to that point. But don't take my word for it... let's wait til late Januar/early February, and look back. |
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God, guys (and the occasional girl)... I just threw up a bit in my mouth.
Can you maybe reign in the fawning over loaded (or, alternatively rpietla or whoever happens to be the whale-de-jour)?
He shows up, he makes an off handed remark, you read it, you grin, you forget about it. That's how it should go.
You do not start analyzing his words as if they were part of the scripture, hoping to get some divine insight into the market... here's the cold, harsh truth:
If there would be any substance behind rumors posted here, they wouldn't be posted here. Conversely, if they are posted here, they lack substance, and are either posted for shits and giggles or in an attempt to influence the market.
But you guys (and the occasional girl) sure make it easy for him* or other whales with your gullibility...
tl;dr Don't be a dumb ass: don't trust rumors (with no evidence to back them up) on an Internet forum. Actually, outside of a forum, don't trust them either.
* or any other large trader who posts here once in a while... I don't want to single out loaded, because he seems friendly enough
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such fail much scam very facepalm or is it.... hmmmm yeah... should have known that would come back to bite me in the ass. brb. buying dogecoin. |
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Bitcoins aren't exactly mainstream yet. Giving the average person a paper wallet would net the same reaction as giving them Monopoly money.
Sure, keep telling yourself that. I gave my sisters paper wallets, and their reactions ranged from very interested ("I'll have to read up on what this Bitcoin thing is") to amused (she: "I'm going to sell them later tonight". me: "sure, go ahead, but I'll laugh so hard if price is 10 times higher next christmas". she: "okay, I'll wait a bit before I sell them") I would say it's a bit too deep into the tech pool to give as a present to the very young or elderly, but for anyone even remotely interested in tech-y stuff, it's a nice idea. |
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Point 2 is: I have equally much confidence that our correction is far from over yet.
Anything in particular that makes you believe that? Anything you would care to share? the market doesn't move for no reason why did we go up 200,000% in 2 years? or maybe the better question why didn't we go 300,000% in 2 years market can't go back up over 1000$ without a damn good reason. and if it can't go up it will go down.. We just crossed 800/700 (mtgox/bitstamp) for "no good reason", other than some built up buying pressure I suppose. That same reason can be good enough to cross 1000, 1200, or any other mark. Not that I really see us crossing those, but right now my best ideas come from accurately getting a feeling for the buying/selling pressure on the market, so I will watch that instead of any deeper reasons moving the market. |
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...
Point 2 is: I have equally much confidence that our correction is far from over yet.
Anything in particular that makes you believe that? Anything you would care to share? Sure. Basically, based on historical comparison. I'm not a follower of applying any strict rules of how a post-peak bear market has to play out, but, very approximately, it seems that at least time wise there's some correspondence between run up and subsequent decline. So I would expect January, February the earliest as an end of the overall bearish trend (i.e. the post double top period we're in now). There's also some correspondence between pre-run up price, ATH price, and final bottom, but it's less clear to me. But the time component really sticks out in my view. |
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yep, i was so sure that we will go down again so i took too big risk and then you know what happened, came by surprise this rally, but i feel good nevertheless, hard choices are part of trading
i'm not too confident about this rise thou, but i think we go >800 at stamp at least before possible drop, what you think?
k, here's my big secret thought. alright, it's not really secret. and not particularly big or deep either. anyway: I have quite some confidence in this rally right now (bid/ask looks good everywhere, several important trendlines are active, volume looks good). As long as we're above 700 (ideal), 670 (less ideal, still okay) (bitstamp prices, as always), we're golden. That's point 1. Point 2 is: I have equally much confidence that our correction is far from over yet. So the tricky part is to figure out how to combine the two. Or more accurately, figure out when #1 ends and #2 kicks in again. |
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once important resistant is breached price tends to rally and then come back to test it as support, just as now in stamp at 720
Did you buy yet?  EDIT: although I admit, I'm not fully behind this mini rally. Just that I'm not a very good bear I guess  yep i bought from 720 wall, im now 10/90 (usd/btc), took a fuckin huge loss buying back in, next target is 850 resistant, i think Sorry to hear. Also took a (small though, luckily) loss when I bought back yesterday. The last leg of the downternd was really sneaky... I was pretty sure we'd go down further, but then it crept up, slooowly. In retrospect, I feel a bit like the proverbial frog in a slowly warming up pot, never noticing that the water is boiling him soon |
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once important resistant is breached price tends to rally and then come back to test it as support, just as now in stamp at 720
Did you buy yet? EDIT: although I admit, I'm not fully behind this mini rally. Just that I'm not a very good bear I guess |
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Oh wow, so few... I expected a bigger percentage.
I happily gave some away.
Why? Judging by the poll, more than 50% of Bitcoin holders gave them as presents directly. At least some of the others bought presents with them, via Bitpay. Sounds good to me. |
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I know, I know, it's totally immature of me, but... (to those who were in here last night) Told you so |
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signs should be >
Why? "< x" should be interpreted as "up to amount x", and you pick the highest one that applies to you. You know... natural language pragmatics conventions and shit. |
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never trust one indicator alone. particularly not rsi in times where it's not clear if it's consolidation or correction oh wait, you were joking |
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You lost me.
Time to get some sleep.
night everybody.
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Do you think its wise to hold off buying right now?
Best recommendation right now is placing a limit order at ~100 and another one at ~1500, and waiting for them to be filled. Might take a while, but better to be prepared and spread your bids a bit. Prices in CNY, of course. No, you don't understand. USD of course, and it has to be limit order (not some fancy stop order), otherwise it doesn't work properly. |
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Do you think its wise to hold off buying right now?
Best recommendation right now is placing a limit order at ~100 and another one at ~1500, and waiting for them to be filled. Might take a while, but better to be prepared and spread your bids a bit. |
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