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301  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: May 29, 2014, 09:08:06 AM
Then you could take 1 BTC, gamble it at 98.9%, win that 0.001 BTC or whatever and call that a successful betting strategy. It's only successful if it results, long-term, in earning more than you spent (which means you'd at LEAST double up).
I wouldn't risk 1 BTC to get that much when I can risk far less to get it. If I put 0.5 in and get 0.2 back and now have 0.7, I'd call that successful.

When there is a 1% house edge, you could expect a 1% loss on average for your wagered amount, no matter if you are doing 1% bet or 99% bet or martingale.

So the higher your wagered amount, the "worse" your strategy is.
302  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Free BTC? on: May 29, 2014, 09:01:53 AM
I was investing lots of time online and applied lots of ways to earn bTC  . some people advised me to go to faucets sites . I started work with faucet after few times later I realized it is too long way to earn money ! faucets are totally waste of time .

You may be able to receive a tiny amount of bitcoin from faucet, but to be honest, they don't worth your time at all.
Many people lured you to spend (waste) time on faucets so to get some ref earning. Tongue
303  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Looking for Signature program for Jr Member. on: May 29, 2014, 08:51:43 AM
when you find one, let me know. i'm not even a jr member yet! working on it... Undecided

You'll get to a member status veru quick. Just find some topick where you can write everything you know, go to he off-topic, you can find something there. Cheers!
Activity only increases 14 every two weeks, it would take some time for him.

So clearly I`m really far away from this, but what would someone do during this time.

Like on the way to Jr. Member. Any suggestions?

- Get a better understanding on bitcoin, so that you can make constructive posts later.
- Take a look at the post history of those getting banned (for example, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=608061.0), to avoid getting banned.
- Check https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.0, compare the terms of different programs and pick one you like most.
etc.
304  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Looking for Signature program for Jr Member. on: May 29, 2014, 08:42:18 AM
What that post showed me, was that there is only 1 signature program cattering for "newbies" and "Jr Members"

Do these people have no voice? Or do their voice carry no value?

I have seen many "newbies" and "Jr members" giving very good advice on this forum, and they not getting rewarded.

Should there not be a incentive for "new" people to join this forum? {Forum moderators can simply delete spam}

Now do not bite my head off, I have a right to my opinion.

Signature campaigns are not created by the mods, but by people who wish to advertise their websites and/or services. They are the ones who decide whether your "voice" matters or not. There are good reasons why they do not place a high value on the participation of newly joined forum members though.

- New accounts can easily be created. If someone gets disqualified or ejected from a signature campaign, the campaign runners want to ensure that they minimize the possibility of that same person getting accepted again under false pretenses.

- A signature campaign's effectiveness is increased if the only content on a participant's signature is a referral link to the website and/or service associated with that campaign. As such, they require participants to only carry their campaign's links on their signatures. Allowing new members to join increases the possibility of one member "farming" all high-paying signature campaigns, thereby diluting the effectiveness of a single campaign relying on such tactics.

- Spam can indeed be deleted by mods. However, just because they can doesn't mean that spammers won't try to get past them. Even with the current restrictions, spammers are still trying to game their post count in order to participate in high-paying signature campaigns. You don't tempt the devil, plain and simple.


As for an "incentive" for people to join the forum, it is the same as with any forum. You join in order to participate in discussions. The signature campaigns have nothing to do with the forum, so their runners have no reason to bait new people into joining the forum.

And one more reason is that when you reach a higher rank, you can make your sig looks "fancier" and get more attention.

Perhaps the allowed signature styling should change with activity score / membergroup. Like:
- Newbie: No styling (including links) allowed. Max 40 characters.
- Jr. Member: Links allowed. Max 100 characters.
- Member: Unlimited length.
- Full: Color allowed.
- Sr. Member: Size allowed
- Hero: Background color allowed

This is done, except that Newbies can use 50 characters and Jr. Members can use 150 characters. The style limitations are applied immediately, but the size limitations only apply when a signature is updated. Tell me if there are problems.
305  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Can my Bitcoin be stolen on: May 29, 2014, 08:33:40 AM
The answer is yes. Be very careful of Malware and software that claims to increase your bitcoin. Eventually the hackers will Crack the algorithm for wallets. Just a matter of time.

If this ever became a real threat (people have already considered quantum computing and still say it isn't possible) the encryption would just be changed I'd think. I wouldn't really worry about it being cracked. As long as you use a decent password obviously.

Keylogger could log your password when you enter it (say, when you create a tx to send out bitcoin), and your bitcoin would be gone even if you used an extremely long random password. Wink


I was responding to the cracking wallet passwords part. Keylogging isn't cracking; it's keylogging. Very different things.

I see. My bad, I thought you were referring to the "Be very careful of Malware" part. Tongue
306  Economy / Gambling / Re: EveryDice.com | 0.99% Edge - Instant Cashout - Invest - Referral - Mobile - Fair on: May 29, 2014, 08:31:23 AM
Offtopic: People trusted vanity pool, me and 9000 other people made addresses there , but they stored ours private keys and one day decided to swipe them.

And that's why you should do it correctly. Smiley
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Split-key_vanity_address
307  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Can my Bitcoin be stolen on: May 29, 2014, 08:27:49 AM
The answer is yes. Be very careful of Malware and software that claims to increase your bitcoin. Eventually the hackers will Crack the algorithm for wallets. Just a matter of time.

If this ever became a real threat (people have already considered quantum computing and still say it isn't possible) the encryption would just be changed I'd think. I wouldn't really worry about it being cracked. As long as you use a decent password obviously.

Keylogger could log your password when you enter it (say, when you create a tx to send out bitcoin), and your bitcoin would be gone even if you used an extremely long random password. Wink
308  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Which Bitcoin Exchange do you use and why ? on: May 29, 2014, 08:22:03 AM
I use bitstamp mainly, as we know pretty much nothing about btc-e and I don't feel comfortable sending my money to them. Smiley

I've heard many problems from BitStamp customers saying that they suddenly had their funds frozen and were forced to complete a long questionnaire to get the funds back, supposedly because of AML/KYC. Have you ever experienced that?

I heard that as well.
Fortunately, I haven't got that yet, probably because I have been doing small trades from time to time (rather than a huge one-time trade). Smiley
309  Other / Meta / Re: Accuracy down to 98% on: May 29, 2014, 08:06:51 AM
Here are some updated stats:

MembergroupAverage accuracy
(all)60%
Newbie51%
Jr. Member52%
Member54%
Full Member59%
Sr. Member63%
Hero Member73%
Staff88%

In all, there have been 27,689 good reports, 8129 bad reports, and 1067 unhandled reports.

I think that this is all pretty good! Any accuracy percentage above ~25% is probably fine.

Thanks for the stats.

I am a bit surprised to see there are "only" 27K good reports, while ckolivas already made about 990 good reports in Jan 2014 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381304.msg4838060#msg4838060). Cheesy

310  Other / Meta / Re: BADBEAR on: May 29, 2014, 07:53:00 AM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=624503.msg6929186#msg6929186

Yeah. He probably just assumed it was Badbear as he's been on the crackdown lately, but suppose it could've been any of the globals.

Thanks for the link. I didn't know temp-ban can only be done by BadBear and theymos.
I always thought all global mods have the same power, but it turns out Bear is more powerful than human. Tongue



He correctly assumed it was me because, as it turns out, this isn't his first account to get banned. Explains the anger. I permabanned all of them (with the exception of the account that posted this thread, "dumb ass badbear")  and also informed Updown of his multiple accounts, hopefully he will be disqualified.

That's why I'm so harsh.

I see. Thanks for your clarification. Smiley
311  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: May 29, 2014, 01:55:55 AM
Then there's also the fact that it's stupid. I'll use whole numbers for ease.

bet 1, if you win you are up 1, if you lose you are down 1.
bet 2, if you win you are up 1, if you lose you are down 3.
bet 4, if you win you are up 1, if you lose you are down 7.
bet 8, if you win you are up 1, if you lose you are down 15.

Why risk 8, 16, 32, 64 to win 1 (on a 50/50 bet)?

The problem is that, many people wrongly believe a rare event can't happen.

Both a "x1.0101010101 bet with 99% winning" and a "x100 bet with 1% winning" have an expected value of zero, but I believe many people prefer the former one and they are probably thinking "how can I be that unlucky to lose in that?" Wink

312  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: Litecoin Dice - 0.99% House Edge, Provably Fair, Free LTC on: May 29, 2014, 01:44:00 AM
I am afraid this is not the right place for your thread. IMO, it should be placed in the altcoin forum...
313  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: May 28, 2014, 10:36:43 PM
Initial BTC: 0.01
Start bet: 0.00000050

It takes 14 losses to lose, the chances of 14 losses in a row are small. The trick is NOT to expect doubling your initial BTC (quit at 0.015 or sooner, unless you're "feeling lucky"), AND not playing a pure Martingale. By this I mean that after you get let's say 11 losses in a row, and finally win, multiply your initial 0.00000050 by 10x-100x (or 1000x if you're "feeling lucky"), so you bet 0.00000500-0.00005000 for a few rounds (10+ losses in a row twice? Yeah, right... Just don't do too many bets with the new wager.), then go back to 0.00000050. This way it takes way less bets to get to your goal. Of course without a bot this is VERY boring and tiresome, so people start betting higher amounts, and therefore lose. Luckily there is https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307425

The bigger your initial BTC is, the bigger your start bet can be and the more mBTC you get faster instead of worthless satoshis.

For each win, you get 50 satoshi. So to reach 0.015 btc, you need to win 10000 times.

The chance of losing 14 times = 50.5% ^ 14 = 0.00007015833
The chance of winning 50 sat = 1 - 0.00007015833 = 0.99992984167
The chance of reaching 0.015 before busting =  0.99992984167 ^ 10000 = 0.49578747985

In contrast, you can all-in your 0.01 btc for just one single 1.5x bet with a win chance of 66%.
314  Economy / Investor-based games / Re: Just double it - double your Bitcoin in 4 business days on: May 28, 2014, 10:30:56 PM
Let's see how soon will this ponzi collapse and OP run away. Wink
315  Economy / Gambling / Re: █ CoinGG.com – Roulette on: May 28, 2014, 10:23:20 PM
101792

please let me 0.5MBTC

As I said right above your post, there is no giveaway going on at this moment.

Check OP's announcement in post #53.
Our give-away just ended, 50 mB has been successfully distributed among 100 players. We will write blog post about this event, expect some interesting facts and graphs.
316  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Which Bitcoin Exchange do you use and why ? on: May 28, 2014, 10:17:24 PM
I use bitstamp mainly, as we know pretty much nothing about btc-e and I don't feel comfortable sending my money to them. Smiley
317  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Saying Hello on: May 28, 2014, 10:10:50 PM
I am a gemstone trader/cutter/polisher with over 8 years of experience in the industry. I have a good access to uncut tanzanite, peridot, zircon and aquamarine and others, as well as polished stones made to size. We will soon be launching our new online store accepting bitcoin for our stones and services.

Do you do mounting and make jewelry as well?
318  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: CoinUrl on: May 28, 2014, 10:03:43 PM
Well why dont you start a thread where everyone will post their coinurl links and everyone clicks on each others link. But i dont know if such a thread is allowed.

It's not, but we can create a forum and everyone who wants can come. BUT what about coinurl? would they not ban an accounts if they see that views come from the same adresses or they don't give a f?

I don't think you can get lots of members registering in such a forum.
Also, from what I heard of, the payment is very very low, though I have no actual figures. Smiley
319  Other / Meta / Re: BADBEAR on: May 28, 2014, 09:52:17 PM
Just curious, why did you know or guess it is BadBear banning you?
Aren't all global mods (Bear, Salty, malevolent, Raoul Duke, Maged) and theymos able to do so?
320  Other / New forum software / Re: New forum - Will it use all funds? on: May 28, 2014, 09:38:04 PM
Will the new forum use exactly the amount that was raised? Or more or less?

The new forum software will cost about 1 million USD.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455867.msg5069851#msg5069851


On the other hand, there are about 6800 btc in the forum fund.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155000.0
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