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3001  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Is fortunejack.com a Scam or are they Legit? on: May 13, 2022, 08:53:35 PM
They are legit ok, kept my balance safe for years.  I actually forgot about it somehow and came back multiple years later and it was not touched.   Was enough for a new pc setup which was required, cant complain when my bad memory is fortuitous.  Not every site has been solid over the years so Im obliged to mention they wont cause a problem for any normal user to the best of my knowledge.
3002  Economy / Speculation / Re: $28,000 Bitcoin price. How explain falling price to worried newbies ? on: May 13, 2022, 05:48:48 PM
Prices arent always absolutely accurate is the best way to explain it.  The market has the job of serving everyone always everyday non stop and if sellers want to pile into the price when not many buyers are awake then we will move down in order to provide the utility of cash always available.    The instant cash exchange to any currency doesnt mean you always will get the best or even correct value.
   I see various adverts for crypto around the world and in remote parts you will pay far more then headline because you are being given convenience, delivery, service at your choosing often with small amounts.  There is no one united price in reality, it varies by situation and volume, liquidity in that location etc.
   Dollar has a higher rating right now in a war and threat of greater war, its not too surprising we come under pressure as BTC is with no government.   It has its own advantages but how people view each currency will vary, right now BTC isnt as highly valued as alternatives but its the same unit it was the year before and will be next year also.  The dollar for example should dated by the year because its constantly changing, every year they issue giant amounts more with no fixed schedule but it does also have an army backing it so I understand its in demand now.
  BTC is surprisingly long term, thats the thing we lose looking at prices updating by the minute.
3003  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: May 13, 2022, 05:31:40 PM
So you bet twice on the same coin ? Now that's a different strategy. Why not place the bet in the last week itself ?

Because of the time bonus its worth taking a first guess quite early on.   Classic example would be guessing we will be drawn towards a big moving average like the 200 day.   Not this month for that but I would layer the bets, do one on the last day possibly but also sometimes I win a bet and it wasnt the greatest odds to pay in the end but I guessed early so that made it worthwhile to do.    I usually bet a range of prices because its easy for it to cross the line at the last moment either way.
  Negative momentum below 32k despite the blip up its more short term relief then proven till we out run the prior selling I think.   So still aiming negatively for month end.  I might wait till Monday mid day to place or add a bet on price, get the weekly closing price that way etc.
3004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Potential to Drop in the $32k Area on: May 12, 2022, 11:57:48 PM
I would say the proper fix to current decline will be proven in stages.     The ideal standard would really be to trade above the 50 day average alongside any other judgements to price level and volume occurring vs the inevitable profit takers along the way.
  30k is not enough, to me thats just the underneath of the ice and I would still apprehensive of futher trouble.   If you fall through the ice, how hard is it to get back out that would be the action and energy required to recover I think it wont exactly be easy to do so and typically after a low BTC needs to catch its breath a while imo.

This is quite a severe decline for whatever reason, a big test to pass
3005  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: May 12, 2022, 11:45:14 PM
I agree with the above, the first 3 tiers of premium benefits are really cheap and you have gained from the year hold perhaps so I would not choose to go back to square one by speculating not when its quite hard to do so effectively.  It does also rely on if you do benefit or not but most generous vs cost to acquire is the first few tiers so even a speculator could leave those on.

Current price of FUN is 31 Sats which is not bad since we saw it dip below 25 Sats recently.
I accidentally doubled my hold at 25 sats.   Wasnt actually meant and I could reverse but just figured it was fate perhaps and left it.   Unless I was going back to dollars I dont see it was bad choice and to me 2022 is an accumulate year and the ideal is to enter with a price thats lower so do I care if crypto has grey clouds overhead right now not really.    Usual movement of prices is like a staircase, jagged but with an underlying bias and with BTC itself being cheaper its a sale for this token in effect.   
3006  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin may likely pull back to 35k on: May 12, 2022, 11:01:02 PM
There are a lot of people who invest into crypto with the money they may need to survive and live.

I'd say thats bad but its probably the vast majority of people on the long time scale.  If an economy contracts over a couple years and unemployment goes to 10% then you might as well say its everybody.  Hence this is the force which drives prices down so much, a bias to productive assets becomes far more pronounced in such times.   This is why we get the sharp turn around, BTC generally doesnt give enough yield back to (most) people to be called high utility or an investment, most dont label it correctly as a commodity speculative bet basically.
  If they label right then risk might also be allocated correctly too and they wont dive into something they need to jump out of just as fast, unfortunately we get people doing the same every time.    Thats negative for them but also why I dont take price as a dictator to my judgement of prospects long term, price gets thrown about by desperate people who got no choice but to retract their remaining capital at a loss but it doesnt mean the actual asset itself is wrong or impaired by their loss.
  Its possible we could view 35k as a median and this current action as the overshoot, its given no hint of that but seems a reasonable view.  I always expect price to return to the 200 day average, I expect that now; doesnt mean 2022 ends nicely because 200DMA is in decline but generally we go too far in both directions and we'll adjust that effect at times.
3007  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: PROS AND CONS OF CRRYPTOGAMBLING. on: May 12, 2022, 09:00:29 PM
I always thought one of the advantages of crypto is its virtual status, at one time it was purely a token not currency you have to worry about or reallocate towards bills because most places still arent taking it directly.  So in crypto I can gamble this token and its purely for that divided from conventional job earnings and separate is safer.   It is best to move back and forth between crypto and cash too much I think as it only creates possible issues.   Generally there has been growth over the years so its best to stay in this economic system anyway.
3008  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: May 12, 2022, 06:15:13 AM
Michael Saylor said on Twitter he can cover loans down to a BTC price of 3000 dollars or so which is a proper melt down; saw it reported on CNBC.  I thought I was being specially negative just throwing out the 2019 high as a sharp harsh figure.   At present BTC is quite close to the 200 week average which generally has marked the extremities to the volatile pricing which is BTC.
   Never say never but would be nice if MSTR was that much of a bargain.   Market cap is shares and I dont know the figures but enterprise value would include the wider valuation amount for a company https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp  I should look on Seeking Alpha if anyone looked at this.
Quote
Short Interest
23.19%
Thats pretty big, people are using this share to bet or hedge I think
3009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ozymandias on: May 12, 2022, 05:34:02 AM
Not a black swan, more like Murphy's Law where the nature of the market is to test everything to destruction something I would guess Satoshi kept in mind.
   Thats a heck of a drop, seems to be a bit of a mess.   Does this resemble the crypto equal to the LTCM blowup of the late nineties where some Noble prize winners trying to arbitrage the market with various trades that unfortunately unfolded dramatically.    I didnt realize the wider implications but some people rely on the stable coin thing way too much where as I always regarded it as a bit wobbly and opaque

Thats about a negative a headline as they can muster:
https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/05/11/do-kwon-is-the-elizabeth-holmes-of-crypto/
3010  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: May 12, 2022, 03:45:34 AM
Thats a very lucky 72 spins, I need luck that asap.   I used up hundreds recently didnt get that result, the moons were aligned  in your favor clearly nice timing Cheesy
For weeks I see '40', I have tried to refresh the page - but then I am redirected to the home page. If I enter into Rewards->WOF/RP transaction page, I still see old price.

Does sound stuck, the easiest thing is just log in with another browser and that cannot be sharing the same cached page or cookie, whatever the problem is.  I take that path as easier then altering your otherwise ok use of the site.

BTC Price walks with lead boots at present, my current alarm is not great just for the reason of contrast with the general circumstances the world has ongoing.  If its specific to crypto then I'd be of more concern for its weighted attitude downwards.   25k area is next line of note, in theory at least; 22k is the equivalent to the covid sell off figure or area comparatively so surprisingly close.    I wonder for this month should I try the outliers at all,  an overshoot or over reaction as a reasonable bet.   I will put on a couple bets for a most negative outlook, might as well win something if thats possible.  Volatility is a bull market.
3011  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: May 10, 2022, 09:24:19 PM
The company is selling shares of no fixed value, they are not obligated to sell any BTC if they dont want to (if they used leverage too much then I get Im wrong but overall I hope this isnt true).   If anything it would be prudent to trade the edges of any position for liquidity and cashflow, every asset has some holding cost but with rates so low I doubt they have much pressure if fairly sensible.   If they were a trust like GBTC then they'd be selling by requirement I guess as they must repay holders in line with  the price etc.
   I'd be more bullish on this operation if they had some good plans to use the majority of their BTC in some way, not heard of that.   People > companies is how I rate BTC prospects because companies employ leverage where as a person just wants utility at an ok price and will come back for it.  Just holding any commodity is not a key to fortunes, its normal for any market to test its boundaries and even half at times as price variance is large in commodity markets.   Thats how I view BTC roughly, a global security related commodity as obviously all modern FIAT currencies are horribly corrupted by national politics.

Quote
soft margin call on a loan

That reads badly, reminds me of the details read out during 'The big short' movie or just various details from that time.    Markets can be really mean at times, the daily, weekly even monthly pricing can be sharply wrong but it wont matter if someone got your signature on a bet you cant stand behind.
3012  Economy / Speculation / Re: One more leg down on: May 09, 2022, 09:47:45 PM
Here is a chart of every week this year and last year.   We are at the bottom pricing for whole range of prices.   It does seem possible to be some area of resistance that can lead to a recovery but also theres no rule that further pressure does not cause great movement outside these boundaries.


So I marked out two highlighted lines, only the upper of the two lines holding as support is going to convince me we are in with a chance of moving back to the prior pricing.  Perhaps we can check the 39k area even if we do fail that and then move lower.
3013  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: May 09, 2022, 06:15:21 PM
The wheel of fortune spin is back to the purely round number max base reward now.   I used up all my spins on that basis though I hadnt been saving up that long.   Did the thousand spins give any thousand rewards?
  Also there is a nice RP bonus ongoing at present worth doing.

My take on price at the moment, if you stick a ruler on the chart its possible to see price has bottomed out here previously quite a few times.  It has fallen off the incline of the last 18 months, presumably thats enough upset to be unsure where it settles.   Super gloomy downside target prior high 2019 but I dont think quite that far, generally price doesnt move in one direction continually.
3014  Economy / Services / Re: We can restore your bitcoin wallet with forgotten password on: May 09, 2022, 06:10:39 PM
I have two wallets like that, neither is a fortune but still bit of a waste.   One is a bad drive that goes click alot now and the other is a bad phone with a battery now shaped like a golf ball almost.   I think one is bitcoin core and the other is eth within a very old version of imtoken and the OS was android 4 I think which apparently helps.  Any of that sound viable possibly, I was just trying to backup the file mostly to stabilize the situation.
3015  Economy / Economics / Re: "...all of the bitcoin in the world for $25" on: May 08, 2022, 11:12:37 PM
Just off that simple statement he makes, I would not buy into that scenario.    Think about it, if you hold all the BTC and nobody else does you are back to square 1.   $25 is an exaggeration but it does stand to reason that the tradable value is related to distribution and value held as a traded asset across millions of people.   
  If Satoshi suddenly reappears and we have 1 person with a disproportionate amount of BTC I do think the reaction and price of BTC for some time after would be far lower, 4 or 3 figures.   I can see why a figure like WB is so negative, but its not consistent with his willingness to ignore FIAT failings.
3016  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 on: May 08, 2022, 11:07:45 PM

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Its not possible in an absolute way but you can determine when there is a strong trend and when volume is lacking for example.   If we repeatedly attempt but fail to pass a point it can be surmised as a reason to consider we might be encountering a point where the market might turn.   The 2018 low came year end into a time of holidays and possibly reduced volume in that time, price can go anywhere but the quality of trading action varies.   Right now price is near to the year low, it cant be said to be everything but its worth noting how we react to the recent low prices.
3017  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambler turns 60 pence bet into £157,865.59 on: May 07, 2022, 11:41:17 PM
The big question is how many attempts he made at such a task, if he tried to do similar every week for last twenty years then well done but not as unlikely as first attempt from someone who entered results randomly.   I always appreciate the underdog bets but the low stake size suggests to me he is in this game often and is happy to give away the small amounts in hope of that bigger pay off, some luck and yep bit of brains to know where best to predict scoring.

74 cents worth for anyone wondering
3018  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto Mortgages Let Homebuyers Keep Bitcoin, Put Down Nothing on: May 07, 2022, 08:32:19 PM
Quote
30-year fixed-rate mortgage

Most countries dont offer such a generous offer, that alone is worth taking.    Just the plain maths on this deal makes it very likely a good option to take, the worst outcome would just be you have to repay with your earnings as do most people.   The best outcome is the fixed loan declines in its outright worth as does the Dollar itself where as BTC value adjust upwards alongside inflation similar to its performance previously, meaning you pay far less in the end then normal.     I recommend everyone takes a fixed mortgage if they can do so.
3019  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: High Rollers on: May 07, 2022, 08:12:37 PM
Quote
high rollers have an obvious advantage is in getting bonuses that depend on the amount of funds wagered

This equates to slightly nicer odds given to largest bettors so they do have a little advantage from that.   Also when you do have alot of money or bet within your own budget then you are more comfortable and more likely to win as you give yourself time and space to do so.  It doesnt have to be a case of outright advantage for the biggest stack but I think the smallest players require more caution, composition and planning to not exceed their limits.
3020  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if Tesla decided to sell its Bitcoin? on: May 07, 2022, 07:58:37 PM
Depends how the BTC is transferred.  Its held by a company not a person so it could be passed onto another company or it might be sold into market all at once which means excessive supply and a poor price realized for that BTC sold, unlikely to happen.  The Mt.Gox disposal of BTC is probably most similar, a large amount sold over time into higher volume periods.
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