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it's my belief that Jamie Dimon is being dishonest and is actually accumulating bitcoin
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New 5 day low |
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I love how people get over bullish when the pump is over and they still buy because they missed the train  yeah..but the pump was to $500, and we are now trending in upper $300s, just $30 or so above the resitance zone which was tested 3 times, over the space of several months, and which was emphatically breached last week.... There has already been a MASSIVE correction. $500 - $350!! How low do people really think Bitcoin will correct from $505!? How much lower do the bears who missed the crash, really think Bitcoin can go after putting in an emphatic long term trend reversal over the past 6 months? 320? |
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look at that hourly tiny red candle with 6k volume! support is way stronger than I expected. was THE PLUNGE intercepted  starting to get nervous good morning bitcoin land.
I was expecting waking up to some big move, so i am kinda disappointed....
remarkable how the coins were bought at the first sign of a dump and then price promptly went back >380.
no matter, THE PLUNGE is coming!
That's comforting. You know where we're heading. Nope. No idea. And I never really did  I'll put on my doooom face then.   |
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look at that hourly tiny red candle with 6k volume! support is way stronger than I expected. was THE PLUNGE intercepted starting to get nervous |
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good morning bitcoin land.
I was expecting waking up to some big move, so i am kinda disappointed....
remarkable how the coins were bought at the first sign of a dump and then price promptly went back >380.
no matter, THE PLUNGE is coming!
Enjoy you're ablutions. Why not have a dump while you're there? Sub $350 by tea.... meh not worth the risk. everyone else will dump for me after tea time. |
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good morning bitcoin land.
I was expecting waking up to some big move, so i am kinda disappointed....
remarkable how the coins were bought at the first sign of a dump and then price promptly went back >380.
no matter, THE PLUNGE is coming!
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i hope price will stabilize right now after falling
It is possible to stabilize in the $350 to $420 territory, but it is very doubtful that such stabilization will occur in the short term. Simply, there is way too much volume currently, and that demonstrates that there is a bit of a battle going on in this price range. I think that the volume has to go down before prices will stabilize, which could mean that prices return to the $350 to $420 price range, but still the direction remains a bit indeterminative. I tend to believe that if prices are going to stabilize in the near term (within the next month or two), they will stabilize a bit above $420 rather than below $350. That's just my hunch based on the overall history and seeming price dynamics, and absent any major developments in the news, whether FUD or not.. +1 well vol appears to be going down a little bit, big move coming soon. Actually, I am talking about Stamp's volume, because I still believe that mostly Stamp is the lead indicator regarding the overall BTC market and price direction - but surely Stamp is not the final authority by no means. Anyhow, Adam, you are correct that volume is coming down, and it is kind of approaching more normal levels - maybe only 2x normal rather than 5-20x. Accordingly, the volume of the past 24 hours is a bit under 30,000 BTC, and more normal daily levels would be in the 10-15k territory, yet probably a bit lower on weekends, no? maybe a little under 10K daily volumes on weekends. ya i like your numbers. looking at the last 6 months, stamps volume is interesting, in the summer we saw 10K volume days on avg, and then Sep Oct daily volume clearly doubled, while bitfinex's volume looks to be pretty much the same the whole time up until this bump up. I'm thinking this means there's been a bump in real demand rather than speculative trading ( going long or short for a quick buck ), bitcoins number of XT pre day paints a similar picture. bullish! looking at the last 10 days, we see that volume has slowed a little today, but so has the magnitude of the swings. theres a triangle forming, my guess is its going to break any second now ( my money's says one last really good red candle ) looking at the last 2 years, both stamps and bitfinex and pretty much every other exchange we have put in record weekly volume. why? i'm speculating that bears are all but dead, the bulls had to correct price, and these bulls want to buy back in sooner rather than later. ( I'm about half covered my sells ) leting price run really over bought and then selling only to buy right back in = MASSIVE VOLUME. all this pretty much Screams " The bull market is upon us! " some poeple might think price won't want to move much higher without scalability all sorted out, but that's not how it works... when we bubbled 2 years ago we did not wait for the US senate meeting to come back positive, we could sorta see how it would play out ( since the FBI bust silk road and planed to sell the bitcoins. ) and so we went ahead and bubbled. by that same mertie we can all kinda see where scalability is going, lots of things can be done, even if block limit is not bumped up, there's thing like lighting / side chains coming, its happening we will see bitcoin scale one way or another, the time is now, we need to price in the fact that bitcoin will soon be "ready for mass adoption" NOW. but not until i'm fully back in. if we can just drop real fast real deep one last time, that'd be gr8! |
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i hope price will stabilize right now after falling
It is possible to stabilize in the $350 to $420 territory, but it is very doubtful that such stabilization will occur in the short term. Simply, there is way too much volume currently, and that demonstrates that there is a bit of a battle going on in this price range. I think that the volume has to go down before prices will stabilize, which could mean that prices return to the $350 to $420 price range, but still the direction remains a bit indeterminative. I tend to believe that if prices are going to stabilize in the near term (within the next month or two), they will stabilize a bit above $420 rather than below $350. That's just my hunch based on the overall history and seeming price dynamics, and absent any major developments in the news, whether FUD or not.. +1 well vol appears to be going down a little bit, big move coming soon. |
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Can someone just tell me where will we possible head? Up or down? Based on analysies and some speculations  I am leaning towards the blue, but if we breakout above 400 then we might see another substantial run. that would put in a spectacular double top. I think we'll be trading in the 300's for a long time, and seeing how we are at 390 there a lot of room to go down at this point. |
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...
That would be an ideal time for someone to launch a competing coin. I figure it would take <$1 Billion to overcome Bitcoin's first mover advantage and then the banksters will just keep running the world as if we never existed.
lmao you really should lay off whatever you are tripping on. You think it would take less or more? Surely you know that it's possible at some number with the right technical design and promotion. You seem to be not understanding what's at stake here. it would take broad consensus amongst the community that this altcoin is the new future of money. i mean they can pump there coin all they want, all they really do is create a very large honey pot no one dare touch. |
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there bearishness / trivializing bitcoin while making the euro Vs dollar trade seem more "game changing" is bullish. |
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The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?
That is nonsense. Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number. Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions. There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day. If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s). The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day. If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours. Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy. However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours. But that regime cannot last for long, of course. Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee. However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week. During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides. As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity. The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed. On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two. the backlog theory is not right, what will end up happening is that TX with 0 fees will never get confirmed ( in which case they never actually leave your wallet ) TX fees will go up such that the TX / sec is below the 1MB limit, if we get a surge of TX demand that will only push fess higher again making low fee TX never confirm. so basically there will never be an ever growing backlog, only ever growing fees. at one point tho the high fees will start to affect TX demand negatively ( no one wants to use bitcoin any more because its so expensive ) and at that point bitcoin growth has maxed out due to technological limitations ( or self imposed nonsensically 1MB block limit ) Well by that logic I think tx fees can go a lot higher. The world might want to get on this boat. Tickets will just have to go up. +1. seems we are finally getting somewhere. we are not at the technological limitations tho, at 10-100MB blocks you might have a solid argument to cap block limit in the name of keeping bitcoin decentralized and let fees run up in this fashion. There's still Hong Kong... fuck'm decentralized != evenly distributed |
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The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?
That is nonsense. Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number. Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions. There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day. If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s). The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day. If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours. Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy. However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours. But that regime cannot last for long, of course. Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee. However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week. During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides. As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity. The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed. On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two. the backlog theory is not right, what will end up happening is that TX with 0 fees will never get confirmed ( in which case they never actually leave your wallet ) TX fees will go up such that the TX / sec is below the 1MB limit, if we get a surge of TX demand that will only push fess higher again making low fee TX never confirm. so basically there will never be an ever growing backlog, only ever growing fees. at one point tho the high fees will start to affect TX demand negatively ( no one wants to use bitcoin any more because its so expensive ) and at that point bitcoin growth has maxed out due to technological limitations ( or self imposed nonsensically 1MB block limit ) Well by that logic I think tx fees can go a lot higher. The world might want to get on this boat. Tickets will just have to go up. +1. seems we are finally getting somewhere. we are not at the technological limitations tho, at 10-100MB blocks you might have a solid argument to cap block limit in the name of keeping bitcoin decentralized and let fees run up in this fashion. |
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The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?
That is nonsense. Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number. Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions. There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day. If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s). The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day. If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours. Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy. However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours. But that regime cannot last for long, of course. Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee. However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week. During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides. As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity. The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed. On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two. the backlog theory is not right, what will end up happening is that TX with 0 fees will never get confirmed ( in which case they never actually leave your wallet ) TX fees will go up such that the TX / sec is below the 1MB limit, if we get a surge of TX demand that will only push fess higher again making low fee TX never confirm. so basically there will never be an ever growing backlog, only ever growing fees. at one point tho the high fees will start to affect TX demand negatively ( no one wants to use bitcoin any more because its so expensive ) and at that point bitcoin growth has maxed out due to technological limitations ( or self imposed nonsensically 1MB block limit ) of course higher fees will always "affect TX demand negatively" what i mean to say it TX fee will stop simply weeding out low value TX from users, and start weeding groups of users all together. |
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we're going to need some big event to justify the rise, blocksize limit / scalability being solved would probably be enough.
You really think we can scale tho? I'm starting to see Bitcoin as a kind of flawed masterpiece. Is it fixable? I think this is all mostly posturing from two political camps. Neither trying to concede anything in an effort to determine the trajectory of a compromise. Hard to get "consensus" on a fix for something that's not broken, yet. this is fairly informative, https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalabilityas is, bitcoin sorta scales, with some optimizations it can scale no problem. the idea that everyone should be able to run a full node on any internet connection with crap computer might have to be abandoned tho. |
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