As I remember we were stuck on 10k for so long.  It was a large 5 figure number in peoples brains so had gravity (sentiment) and we orbited it both above and below for seemingly forever.      People consider every price to be equal but I think a rush down to 10k is about as reliable as soggy cardboard for it withstanding any scrutiny by the market.   It can happen but I only really expect it in panic terms when people are running lamp posts they so distracted and forced in actions.
   If we had interest rates way above 5% then I'd believe in it being more of a real move, as I recall last time FED tried to herd the cattle with higher rates it was a false run.  Ultimately raising rates, raises cost of debt and there is trillions owed on really short dates so immediately its throttling the economy which they are also preoccupied with not stalling into a recession or depression which still haunts them from the 1930's  
   Long story short, the FED is always falling towards inflation occurring and they have sworn to allow 2% as perfectly acceptable if thats the case we arent seeing any real hard times for global assets such as BTC.   Deflation is a big fear of central banks, eventually yes we get failure occuring but they are deliberately diluting money for decades now.  Yen and Bank of Japan have been on this yellow brick road since 1990

Clear reason why it should not happen is the price change is too rapid.   Despite being a higher price, a more volatile asset is not the positive longer term it would appear at first.   Moving too fast upwards means its less likely to stick, we fail and possibly do damage by trading at a price not retained.   The 20k price from 2017 didnt appear again for a long time because it was too erratic and not trusted as reliable, 100k this year is not the best choice but a market can do anything of course.

Just for future reference there is no perfect view of the future, a model is just a scenario of events continuing to perform in this expectation.    When we deviate enough from expectations be on guard, like breaking a new ATH but then reversing was a good time to be cautious and it built from there.  The main thing I disagree with is fixed time objectives, we have big events knocking us sideways all the time it wont run like a train on a track to schedule as we are often with such uneven ground to proceed forward.
   I think sentiment accumulates like price, it requires resetting thats why I want to see every thread title abjectly gloomy as if price is entirely accurate always and our singular determination.  

200 Day average is the best case scenario with any reasonable optimistic scenario.    Normally even if we break a greater downtrend, it rises but also back tests that break before later rising.   The higher prices come with accumulation of positive movement, we dont have any part of that right now so your time constraint is too much.   This year maybe but I reckon we'd still just hover around the 200 day even allowing for this entire year, this is positive its just slower and more gradual then people want.  BTC is a longer term asset then most of us consider it to be, volatility is not proper movement as it reverts back.
   37k is 200 day maybe 35k end month.   Wait till the autumn rather then expecting too much now.   Main reasoning is there is so many assets with very high yields, all cheap why are they coming to BTC just now as its a competitive market BTC plays in.

To state the BTC price stays higher pricing for a period of 9 years and we last until 2025 trading every day as we have previous is actually still bullish, exceptional optimism for a doom and gloomer.   But then it goes to zero so be scared, eventually the sun explodes and Yellowstone volcano is due any day yet we continue.   If BTC is fine till 2025 I think thats alot more bullish then the worst case scenario, you are lacking imagination of all possible events.   Just a simple EMP event would be enough, totally natural and many other situations BTC is surely challenged (worse then now).
   The main question is why 2025, dollar has accumulated value in 2025 despite its debt and deficits, lagging inflation for 3 years yet appreciates anyway.  Perhaps maybe they default on bonds but respect paper doesnt make sense but a possible scenario and I can see BTC does tank with that deflationary event.
  The trajectory for the future is most likely similar to the past with ever increasing volatility.

Extremely bearish markets at the moment, perhaps deservedly but I really doubt the value of conventional debt (currency) is correct or reflects the value that will be returned over years.   This is volatility, we swing down harshly and likely up again like a rollercoaster or large waves.   Anyhow I think BTC and other used parts of crypto are doing better then expected.

Saw this was the featured segment on CNBC for the Polygon network https://youtu.be/3R2oQ5Wy4wA?t=164   A good project if it can improve network liquidity
https://funtoken.io/fun-token-announces-new-xfun-token-on-polygon/

Cautious buy at present seems quite fair.   Today wider markets have been very negative, I think possibly they do recover over this week before we later find their resolved direction but in context of that mass sale BTC has done very well.   


Charts should be as simple as possible is my take, it relates to consensus and quite simply we have a series of higher lows here [put a ruler on the bottom prices].   Its only short term and can be wiped out but a rally is fair game.   Above blue line or weekly average I think BTC can develop some positivity.   It would be nice to see BTC outshine every other asset this week at least tbh

The one positive to government owning gambling operations is it would help to subsidize fiscal budget and alleviate tax revenue requirements.   However theres much need for direct government involvement, even China allows 3rd parties to operate various establishments via a licensing arrangement.   Basically alot of modern business is operated like a Royal charter from a thousand years ago, people complain about capitalization but we dont essentially have that economy of business in operation most of the time. 

We have positive momentum making attempts to break through again with 3 different attempts on the weekly average in the last week I have to agree the possibility of a positive trend should back on the watchlist seems like a fair call to me.
   I dont usually watch RSI but OBV says we dont simply rise, the price is more positive then volume accumulation but if we can break and hold above 20k thats got price action resolving positively.  Ideally we keep doing this over weeks and months and its less doubted then.

Price is recovered above the 2 day average to end the week.   Its very short term measure but easy enough to stay optimistic until it falters.  Hopefully we beat weekly average next at 20k and consolidate at a higher level.  All of this is occurring above support level (lows of the last week) which lends some idea we can continue to build.

At present the price is staying below the 2 day average.  We've made attempts to break that trend but not cemented only fallen back.  Till we consistently hold a good momentum for a closing week bar its best to stay cautious and expect profit taking on rises.  Even a small rise in BTC is big compared to most assets and can be sold easily.

He was always good but also too driven and done a few stupid things along the way.  s1mple has actually cheated and been detected in csgo but not by VAC only ESL wire client I think it was.  They dont ban forever luckily as ESL is a big name and none of the other providers duplicated the ban including Valve and nobody else detected him cheating that I read about.  So s1mple got an ESL ban played outside of that for a while, he also tried to evade the esl ban with other accounts and was rewarded with an extended ban term again purely for ESL.
  I think it was 2 or 3 years while he was quite young, he teamed up with Hiko while serving the ban in other LAN and then even before the ban expired Hiko had him drafted into Liquid on the other side of the world  When ban expired he could goto the major as normal, very lucky he didnt end up life banned.  Obviously we know the Liquid thing was volatile but it made a great story, I think s1mple has advanced to give more respect since those days.

  Rules changed recently, I believe under 18 even if VAC gets a players account banned they may later be let off with expiry, I dont have the detail but might be after 5 years.  I think iBP should have been let off after 5 years because one person on that team wasnt even 18 at the time and was dragged into the mess but Valve seems no upside to appearing to be a soft touch I guess.    Tons more money in CSGO now, it should be quite minor for any regular league I read the pacific region suffers problems but I miss most of those games.  
  I have personally played vs pro players who cheat (not recent), the demo was a joke but they were not detected by ESEA or valve etc.   A observer or those guys who manage or view players at LAN, they had to do it manually and then other org declined them.  Years later they did detect him (a few months past my having him in my game demo/matches) but he was already banished in effect, s1mple was super lucky

Some of this volatility is external is how I see it.   The world is full of it as part of easy monetary policy and debt financing.   The EURO isnt achieving some perfect statehood, they will end like YEN is now with great doubts for the giant amount of debt taken on that is not serviceable.    Get used to excessive inflation for years into decades of instability.
   BTC stability will happen with the largest amount of potential buyers possibly, part of why price drops must occur and are healthy is that it widens the base of support from potential users more able at that lower price.    Probably applies to commodity use of any asset but naturally BTC will continue to increase its population and so we should see more certainty in pricing from wider bid offer order books and general usage in exchange for good worldwide.

The title alone is bullish for resolutely expecting BTC to become honestly weaker then Dollar in the context of their recent actions to undermine any long term value for USD.    All we are doing right now is discovering holes in the swiss cheese and just how close is the structure to collapsing, they arent fixing or reverting any of the previous damage.  The latest rate rises are just an adjustment to overall course which is failure of Dollar standard, its not a story most would give credence hence its a journey we have to progress along.  Unfortunately media is an echo chamber, reactionary more then any prediction.
   Criticizing prices for pulling back as justification for BTC itself declining in its own revenue is baseless, market deciding whatever USD price is external and arbitrary and in this case its subject to factors such as Dollar supply and FED policy etc.   

Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte is up vs BTC this year, I presume from higher oil helping them.  Its 10bn to 1, celebrate that if you like but hopefully you get my point more has been lost then is shown just examining this year.

I'm going to be rude and ignore the exact framing for the time at which we do such event.   Can a sharp price drop occur at some point and scare people like the rollercoaster ride that BTC is, sure it can.   But Im not especially negative overall, I dont see 2022 as some terrible unforeseen event.  Its not a 50 year storm, a harsh pullback that cuts to the bone is just what you need to be ready for and plenty people were wearing flip flops instead of chainmail.
  It hurts but its not massively out of character and consider the depths and extremes of events in 2022 with the reemergence of nuclear war in prospect, it aint a happy time so yea we fell back tough as that is.  Volatility is the norm


The more points of contact the greater the trend validity so always take the most commonly confirmed level or trend as the most likely to stand long term.    When or if we break these levels the price accelerates usually.

All scenarios tested is most likely and the most obvious is just sideways in conclusion after spikes up and down.   People dont like sideways but add time and ultimately it means we do go upwards, its just a bit boring and wears out some especially those relying on leverage.   Anyone who trades on sugar highs and hype will find they lose more then they gain in this situation I guess because nobody is especially correct when we can move either direction but in no direction reliably.
  Its maybe ironic but overreaction means the low prices become unreliable and in effect cheap, when that idea becomes clear I dont but I think this whole year is enough space to work it out.   2018 was probably the year where people got really increasingly negative and it was with rising Dollar index so kinda like now.
  I do have my doubts on Dollar keeping its gains, anyway I wanted to say summer at the very least being slow and bare is on schedule and then sept/oct autumn there is turbulence and thats the earliest possible solid positive that sticks but my guess for 2022 was always consolidation after gains.  Its been a bit more negative but basically thats what we are doing imo

Twitter wants to promote NFT but refuse to just simply convey a normal URL is nonsense and censorship with bias.   Cant have a platform for communication if they biased without good reason.
  Unknown risks in the world are far greater danger and avenue to harm for most people.   Driving a car is worse risk then flying in a plane, peoples perceptions are off

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “ – Mark Twain



Thats decent bias to have as a tailwind but a good driver and/or other factors can still negate that.

Every single person alive is wired to gambling because flight fight response is standard issue for the human psyche and used or still is useful to some extent.  Risk is a normal scenario and response to it is learned more then programmed without choice in DNA, obviously we have bias but thats true for all human behavior I think.    For example men typically take bigger risks more often then women but its not absolutely true thats always the case

The unequal voting structure doesnt seem right but if its always been that way I guess its legal so tough luck.  Facebook has something similar I think.   Used to be banks were arranged differently also, to be a director you had to be personally invested in the fate of the bank but that was before the central bank regime took over

I dont see any one particular owner outside of the voting issue.

Chess always had good reputation, its just recently it got a bit more popular and been recognized by another generation.


Only Firouzja is a worthy opponent or somehow he finds that potential game less tiresome from an opponent who will be good practice to beat?  Must be nice to be so successful you can decline games as not worth your bother   I guess I can understand the preference for more interesting challenges and some people are better to spar against then others whose moves are blunt, slightly arrogant attitude but he's earnt that.

Nakaumura streams games on twitch I think, he would be refused I know Carlsen has played casually vs some relatively minor twitch streams