CCMF
Now I know for sure it's going down.
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Looks like nothing happened.
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Five red candle days, three days of churn, and then five green candle days. This indicates a sea change of liquidity. Last time this happened in September, there was a month and a half of very slow gains before the rocket took off. If this is another example of stealth transfer of coins from day tarders to hodlers, there is reason to believe that the time frame may be accelerated somewhat. Frequency of rallies increase as their amplitude decreases.
China
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The program is called Maker Taker, not Market Maker.
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Exchanges are having record low volume and prices are just floating up with no resistance.
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No sane person is gonna throw some money in now because they know this.
Meet one such insane person. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Just bought a 2-digit amount of bitcoins and removed them from the order book. I wonder, if everyone reading this thread bought something between 0.5 and 1 BTC and moved it out of the exchange, would that give the price a nudge in the upward direction? I think most people who chat here buy a 3 digit amount of btc,
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How insulting for bitcoin.
Overstock adopts bitcoin... crash
Tiger direct adopts bitoin... crash
Porn.com, vegas casinos, and various other adoptions... crash
Positive hearings and conferences... crash
Btcchina enables direct deposits... oh... TO THE MOON!
Actually the positive China news does very little either. People need to get some balls and get over this 920-950 thing (or similar ranges on other exchanges) instead of immediately selling if the price goes up 5 dollars. This mindset is the only thing that's holding it back. And because people are dump sheep everybody is afraid to be the first not to sell and let it go over 1000. And even if they do only 1 person has to dump 50 coins and the lemmings completely panic and all sell till we're back at 920. No sane person is gonna throw some money in now because they know this. No it looks different this time. The order book on Bitstamp and Bitfinex are going bananas.
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How insulting for bitcoin.
Overstock adopts bitcoin... crash
Tiger direct adopts bitoin... crash
Porn.com, vegas casinos, and various other adoptions... crash
Positive hearings and conferences... crash
Btcchina enables direct deposits... oh... TO THE MOON!
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Bulls are wrong. Bears are wrong. It's going to trade at $800 for the next month.
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Something in this thread gets confirmed.
EC getting cracked is the worst possible thing. It would be game over.
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The order book on Huobi flows like water. It is such a game.
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Now that most real trading occurs completely off of the exchanges, and there is no way to follow it
Is that a fact (say, deduced from analysis of the blockchain)? When one wants to buy or sell something vauable, it is usually better to do it through a market or broker. Otherwise one may waste a lot of time looking for the partner, and the price may end up being well above or below the market's price - leaving one of the sides quite frustrated. So, who would want to trade bitcoins in private, and why? I'm not going to guarantee to you that this is a fact. It's only what I've heard and what the most rational explanation for things are. I'll leave it to someone else to do the confirming. Anyway the reason someone would do this is: 1. Investors do not trust millions of dollars to unregulated offshore businesses. They would rather meet face to face at a business with a whale in the United States (or elsewhere) and transact in secure environment in a situation that they can control and verify. In the case of the investment trusts, the investors can actually invest in a wall-street type fashion with the protections of strong US regulation and banking. 2. The investors want to acquire massive amounts of coins without slippage and without moving the market. Currently the exchanges don't have the liquidity to acquire 10,000 coins without incurring massive slippage and starting a rally. Instead the fiat whales will meet directly with btc whales who are in an equal situation where they want to sell 10,000 coins without moving the market. The transaction happens in secret without moving the market, everyone is happy, and the investors can go on making additional transactions at the same price.
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On most of the exchanges that I monitor, the BTC trade volume for Friday Jan/31 was extremely low.
Huobi (15.26 kBTC) and BTC-China (1.17 kBTC) were the most affected; both had about 1/6 of the volume of last Tuesday's (Jan/28). For the non-Chinese exchanges, that ratio was around 1/3.
The decrease at Chinese exchanges is easy to understand, since Jan/31 is the Chinese new Year, and AFAIK people have several days of vacations before and/of after it. But the fall at the non-Chinese sites is puzzling, since they are usually very active on Fridays.
This "experiment" may show how much China infuences other exchanges. Except for MtGOX, the prices in all exchanges are obviously tied by arbitrage. So perhaps (less volume in China) --> (less price variation) --> (less volume at all exchanges). Or perhaps arbitrage trading is a large part of the volume; then (less volume in China) --> (less price variation in China) --> (less arbitrage trade).
OKCoin fell "only" to 1/3 compared to Tuesday. That is another hint that its clientele includes a significant non-Chinese component (the people who keeep trading while the Chinese are all asleep).
We all know about BTC-China's rogue robot that traded ~40,000 BTC in 2.5 hours, 40 BTC at a time, around Jan/30 18:00 UTC (Jan/31 02:00am in China) . But there are other weird things going on at that site. For example, its order book now has an offer to sell ~100 BTC @ 4872.38 CNY, and a bid for ~175 BTC @ 4872.37 CNY -- and those two guys just sit there, nose-to-nose, without moving a penny.
Like some other exchanges, BTC-China also has a stream of small trades within that narrow spread, moslty below 40 BTC. I suspect that it is a robot trading with itself, to cover up the lack of real transactions and/or to inflate their volume.
Once in a while, there is a transaction that changes the price: arbitrage, perhaps?
The crypto-coin community urgently needs to define professional ethics standards for exchanges, and set up an international entity that will audit them and rate them for compliance.
I agree. I think the exchanges are 95% daytrading/bot activity and 5% actual investment/divestment from occasional small players. So if the market leader (huobi) isn't moving then there's no reason for the bots and daytraders to trade and there is low volume. Also, even huobi itself is mostly fake volume due to the 0% fees. The big action is happening off of the exchanges. Or at least this is what we're led to belive. If it's not true then this is a house of cards waiting to fall apart.
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But fear by whom exactly, and why so late? I doubt it was fear from new buyers who came in near the March/April run-up: they did not yet have much to lose. So it was fear from people sitting on large gains thinking it could all vanish and they had better diversify, just in case, correct? But why did it happen so much after the March/April growth spurt? And are we likely to see this play out again?
Mtgox was having major liquidity issues and was facing major lawsuits at a time when it was the only major exchange. This fear triggered the final phase of repressed capitulation to occur. You may notice low volume. This is because most of the buying occurred off-exchange by hedge funds. OK, I think this all makes sense. The MtGox fears reduced the total bid volume on the exchange, and when the final capitulation came (triggered by Gox concerns), there was insufficient USD liquidity to soak up the bitcoins and the exchange price fell dramatically. The street price in Vancouver (local bitcoins) didn't fall during this period--in fact many exchangers were sold out! So I think this was basically a market dislocation--there was ample demand from new small buyers, but the mechanism to acquire coins from the large holders at Gox had broken down. Will we see a final capitulation from this last November's growth spurt? Now that most real trading occurs completely off of the exchanges, and there is no way to follow it, it is too difficult to predict what is going to happen, especially with all these constantly changing variables like mass adoption, government bans, and China. A capitulation might occur or it might just be sideways trading instead. There might be enough demand off exchange to execute the capitulation at market price rather than causing a drop. Or there might not, and certain types of news could change this at any time. I've given up trying to predict the future. Instead, I'm just following a basic TA strategy to move in out of my position dynamically so that I don't miss any major movements.
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Could you have put this instead in one of the 5 other threads specifically created for this news?
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