I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't. I have a simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline, it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a profit is guaranteed for many months to come. Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth. I completely agree with you. I'm not into your math model to verify it (but I may find it interesting to try if you let me). It's time to call it a day anyway. Goodnight and CHOO CHOO! |
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Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that? Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ?? There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections. No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty. That's what I'm talking about; what dont' you understand?  |
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Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?
Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that? |
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PEOPLE! What are you talking about? We're missing the subject here... which is:   YEAH BABY!!!
CHOO CHOO!!! |
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Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level. We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%. I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post... Profoundly incorrect. lrn2pricediscovery I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
Again: system dynamics DOES have approaches for things like Bitcoin, where the model is simply of questionable accuracy instead of completely worthless. True story. +1 |
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I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
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Depends on the odds. But most likely reptila can calculate them to his advantage. Too much math for me.  I'm good at math, trends also. But wouldn't bet on either way. Risto has the ability to lose and laugh about it; I don't.  Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level. We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%. I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post... I'd like to take a peek if you don't mind... ? |
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To spice up a little: Is anyone willing to accept a $10,000-$100,000 escrowed bet that Bitstamp will hit $500 before hitting $1,000?
What odds? I am thinking that $1,000 is much more probable but I am willing to take the other side if odds good enough.
Really no one is jumping on this? Why bet on market movement against someone who can move the market? Because it's a win-win situation? (for him)  |
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Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right? and i think that even if the market goes down, their wont be enough asks for you to effectively buy back the coins you sold.
this is pure speculation on my part.
Facts do not support your speculation. There have been 4 major high-volume crashes in the last month, the 5-minute volume in one exchange alone in the bottom of the crash is easily BTC2,000. Example chart&data. I am prepared to trade the final capitulation in 4 exchanges, spreading the volume. If I was an order of magnitude bigger, then I could not hide my buys in the orderbooks and it would be complicated. But then I would own an exchange and oh boy...GAWD HEWLP US!!! |
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Evening people... Change of plans for the weekend. We're going up! |
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Finally a trader who has proper priorities in life and in trading Life is not funny if you're not happy buddy... We need more fun in our days! Falling wedge on 3H chart.
Just recovered... Don't judge at these moments. It's too vague to predict ANYTHING... |
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hmm  Is that a cock and balls formation? All I see is MULTIPLE bottoms...  I liek more the bottoms chart When so many bottoms appear; the only way is...  |
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Is that a cock and balls formation?
All I see is MULTIPLE bottoms... |
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* macsga is holding his precious...  |
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Someone is clearly dumping coinz!!! |
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Who gives a rat's ass what they will do? When they oppose we will fight back. New kid in town always wins. |
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If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.
You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.
I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system. This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here. I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamicsI SERIOUSLY don't. I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion. So true; others here would have been bored to death |
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If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.
You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.
I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system. This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here. I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamicsI SERIOUSLY don't. |
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If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.
You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.
I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system. |
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