|
Never quite understood the mentality of bashing the "weak hands". If it weren't for them, you (and I) would have never gotten our coins in the first place (unless you're a miner). Trading is necessary. Everything else (price swings, bearish vs bullish sentiment, trigger happy traders vs. "strong hand" traders) follows as a direct consequence of the previous.
|
|
|
|
It is so nice to get all the panic out of our system.
Just don't screw up Christmas folks. I had a whole plan on gifting bitcoin and if the market collapses I will have to actually think about individual presents. [shudders].
Why? I'm still planning on doing exactly that. Doesn't matter if the btc you give to your sister is worth 1000 USD or 800. (okay. maybe matters a little  ) |
|
|
|
|
Nope. Changed my mind:
My analysis has show we're going down hard. SELL SELL SELL!
:P
|
|
|
|
when poeple are openly bearish here, it because they sold already.
Excellent observation. I better restrain myself not to pull a rpietila and try to talk price down ^_^ |
|
|
|
Guess I'm putting the old adage "...be greedy when others are fearful" to a test.
Wait, doesn't that mean you should be buying while people are panic selling? Welp. I'm testing it from the other side  What I meant it: the forum is pretty fearful right now, it seems. And I'm not going against that by being greedy. |
|
|
|
|
Oh well. We had a good run (since early July, to be precise).
First time in quite a while I reduced my btc position substantially. I'm still in, never go full fiat :D, and I consider consolidation still slightly more likely than a major crash, but I also believe the chance of a sudden breakout upwards is somewhat lower than a similarly powerful breakout downwards, so there you go.
Guess I'm putting the old adage "...be greedy when others are fearful" to a test.
EDIT: not because of Baidu, by the way. Fuck Baidu :P
|
|
|
|
I know my count misses final sharp move up. But failed hourly sma200 was always unbeatable during bubbles and provided support for bubble EW count. And now it failed and don't want to backup. I assume here count is finished.
Not that I'm feeling particularly bullish right now, but: sma200 was also crossed in May 2011 (price more than doubled afterwards, after a short dip), and even now, in October (though less pronounced than the dip below now). Meh. I'm still 60% sure we're seeing consolidation rather than a big pop, but that's not exactly a comfortingly high confidence I have :D |
|
|
|
Have some patience these investments are not "get rich quick" schemes. When buying a contract that says "2-years" one should make a mental note that its a 2-year contract and not a "win big in a couple of months!" contract. You might as well go hit the slot machines if that's your mentality.
WTF are you talking about? Of course these are get-rich-quick shemes. There is no other purpose for them. If you don't understand what difficulty and available hashrate do to your ROI then you should look for another game to play. It is a game of diminishing ROI. The situation is (and has been for years) that you will have to make the bulk of your ROI in the first few months. If you didn't make most of it in a few months then no amount of years will help you get more than you already got. If you don't " win big in a couple of months!" you will probably lose. Waiting 2 years to understand this is just noob. If you beliefe that mining hardware can hold value for 2 years then you are seriously seriously deluded. Any hashrate you may think is worth something now will be obsolete within half a year, max. So, in other words, there is no such thing as a long-term investment in bitcoin mining hardware unless you happen to sell it.Although I have to re-iterate that the "beast" of a mining rig CH has created - maintained in a data center with "bulk" or "wholesale" electricity pricing - may ultimately smash competitors like "cognitive mining" and the buy-and-wait butterfly cloudhashing contracts.
And did you realize that by exposing so much haspower they proportionally decrease the ROI of all their customers as well? Any hashpower they add competes directly with all other miners and that includes their customers. 'Smashing competitors' means effectively the same thing as 'smashing customers'. For instance what's going to happen as several large mining pools join up to create huge pools with corporate style business models and cheaper electricity.
What will happen is they will buy more hardware and thus make the ROI of existing customers less. I'm still new to studying the nature of bitcoin
Study more and harder. Hey! You're back! I'm your biggest fan. Let me wear your hide as a poncho! Oh, wait. That sounded creepier than intended. Seriously though, you made a number of pretty good posts earlier this year, so you're on my "read once in a while what they post" list on btctalk. So that's why I saw your new post. ... Now, can I wear your hide as a poncho? |
|
|
|
Excellent write-up. I guess your starting point ("explain BTC to tech literate people") is similar to my own point: the math itself isn't the problem for me, but I don't have the time (or inclination, I admit) to read up on all the technical details, so I'm stuck with the "high level" abstractions that are often too shallow. That said, two remarks about the organization of your text: It's heavily based on comparing the Bitcoin network to the BitTorrent network. That's on purpose, I supposed, but it might limit your audience (it now replaces pre-knowledge of BTC with pre-knowledge of Torrent network ) It is still relatively abstract. Probably on purpose as well, but I always wondered what a good write-up would look like that would go into *some* technical details (without explicating all the nitty gritty programming details) of a) the encryption side of BTC, and b) the way the transactions actually happen on the network. Especially about point b) I'm personally still very unclear, only having an abstract idea of it, without being able to give *any* technical details if someone would ask me. |
|
|
|
ok now imagine you filled at 1195 and it went on crashing to $300 and stayed there. draw a graph explaining how you guarded your money then?
+1 to this. Anyone who thinks that an attempt to call the bottom is NOT putting their money at risk is delusional. Almost every trade that has a predetermine short term outlook, such as buying a dip and expecting a flying bounce or "miring" to get out, is putting money at risk for a short term reward. You either invest for the long term, or you take on huge risk day trading to get many short term big rewards with big risks. There is no magic formula, no matter how many "after the fact" charts you post. -Mike At least have the decency to respond what OP actually put forward: not some magic way to protect your investment against all possible outcomes, but a way to describe how you should trade, or more precisely: how your expectations of price movement should guide your trading actions, and how you should cut losses accordingly. That's trading 101. But the rather asinine reactions posts like this get in here make me think it's a class many here still need to take. Finally, what a moronic dichotomy you put forward there: you either HOLD FOREVER!, or you GAMBLE IT ALL AWAY. In the real world, some of us are interested in increasing their total amount of coins through (relatively cautious) trading of the swings. What OP described is a basic technique to get there: cut losses. don't give up profits too early. That's about it. |
|
|
|
|
Never mind the smartasses. I appreciate posts like this (though I got this particular one by mail already)
(sidenote: what's the point of being on the speculation subforum if your entire idea of trading is buy & hold? guess you like the social aspect. so do I :D)
|
|
|
|
What are the chances of Chinese banks boycotting btcchina and other exchanges now? I can imagine the banking partners of btcchina getting antsy at this news.
My thoughts also. But don't try and be open minded on this thread, it's not allowed. Put your blinkers on and reach for the moon! Thats why I think it will go down now. Even if it goes down to 500$ thats still double the April high. China had a big role in this boom. To pretend that this news - which I do believe is a positive one in the long run - won't affect price in the short term (next 2-3 weeks) is just putting blinkers on IMO. Good point. On the other hand, the same could have been said (in fact: was said) about the Silk Road takedown ("good news long term, but for now: bear market"). Remember how long that one kept us down? |
|
|
|
Yeah, total crap
hehehe, your view on btc or his analysis? |
|
|
|
Or Perhaps the start of a "triple top reversal"   Here's my view of it (no fancy chart for now)... I don't see us breaking out upwards quite yet, and I don't see a clear reversal either. What's wrong with a bit of consolidation around 1000USD before anything else will happen |
|
|
|
update:
what is your point? Do you normally communicate with people you don't know like that? What is your point? Huh? What is your point? If you don't find anything of interest simply ignore it, you don't need to make an ass out of yourself by communicating with me by saying "what is your point". Jog on.  See, your response was at least as rude as the question "What's your point". You post a chart without any explanation, you get called out for it. That simple. That said, I see your point about support turning resistance. However, I also point out that the market seems to reject anything below 850 (mtgox and bistamp). I take that as a pretty positive sign. I expect consolidation rather than increasing selling pressure, for now. |
|
|
|
Welcome to my ignore list OP.
I should try to market my ignore list to newbies...maybe a CMMPro's ignore list subscription...just .01 btc per month to relieve all the forum stupidity with one button press.
I'll buy it. OP, you're a clown and nobody takes you serious. There are smart bulls that are well respected, there are smart bears that at least some people respect (like electric mucus), and then there are neckbeards like you. We gently smile at your retardation. Does that help? |
|
|
|
Its clear in Satoshi's early work that the final purpose of this experiment is to replace "dishonest" fiat money. He already knew that if BTC was to replace government-issued currency, banning and harsh fight would happen - this is why he created a system resilient to any kind of banning, and that's why he chose to be anonymous (and he "chickened out" hard when Wikileaks accepted BTC donations, he thought BTC was not ready yet for that kind of attention - he was mistaken).
Summing up: Bitcoin was never intended to be an "investment" or a "virtual commodity" - it was meant to be an potentially world-changing experiment that could disrupt the world current power balances.
Real bitcoiners know this. Real bitcoiners know that the final purpose is not to exchange BTC->fiat, but BTC->goods+services.
Real bitcoiners know that a "bitcoin ban" is not only *expected*, but it is also *needed*. Firstly and foremost, because BTC has YET to prove it is resilient, and that's a final proof. Secondly, because it will just mean that Bitcoin is going in the direction it was designed to go.
This "scare tactics" just shake out weak hands that see in BTC just a way of making a quick (fiat) buck. I know that most of the old timers wouldn't dump their coins if there is a global ban - would you?
This distinction between "real bitcoiners" and (presumably) the wrong kind of bitcoiners is too crude for my taste. And the question "would you dump all coins if BTC becomes illegal" is too simple as well (I wouldn't, at least not immediately, but I would keep my eyes open if there's an alternative showing up). The "virtual commodity" and "absolutely free currency/store of value" aspects are, in my opinion, deeply intertwined. You won't get one without the other. That's why my own mental representation of BTC resembles that of the Internet as a whole: largely unregulated, but not entirely so. Traceable and governed as far as agencies can, and if there's a strong interest (hur dur terrorism), they can do so quite effectively. Finally, ways to *circumvent* such monitoring and governing if you're technically savvy enough (Tor network comes to mind). All in all: no. I simply disagree with your spirited and idealistic, but also somewhat naive analysis of what BTC is and will be. It won't be entirely unregulated. It won't replace dirty fiat in our live times. But it will give those who know how to make use of it new means of channeling wealth around regulations, just like the Internet gave you that ability with respect to "valueless" information. SIDENOTE: sorry masterluc if this turns out too offtopic. let us know if we get on your nerves |
|
|
|
|
@Bitcoinwisdom
Bitstamp API seems to be screwed up, or your site parses the data wrong, but current trades are displayed as a candle that is 2 or 3 hours in the past. Can you look into that?
|
|
|
|
Here in Spain we are also experiencing fails in the site, especially since weekend. Now it isn't working at all.
And Simran, I'm also a greedy motherf**ker; since I'm also would like, and appreciate a lower price for a premium account.
I think you fail to see the reason of a premium account. It's more a donation rather than an upgrade. This is a meaningless statement. How do we know donations have not, for example, exceeded $1 million? They probably haven't, but maybe at some point they will. And there's no way to tell since the "donation" address is not pooled. It's not "greedy" to say what you're willing to pay for something. If it's all donations anyway, isn't a donation of any amount necessarily the opposite of greedy? That's basically the definition of donation: giving something away at a loss to yourself. Maybe Bitcoinwisdom are the "greedy idiots." They are not transparent about how many "donations" they've received, potentially leading many people do donate more than they otherwise would. I suspect this will not be changed; the obfuscation is intentional for this reason precisely. What the hell, people? Why is this discussion still going on... Fact time: a) Bitcoinwisdom is a fantastic service. Probably the best real-time BTC charting site at the moment. b) IT'S. FUCKING. FOR. FREE. c) Let that sink in, you clowns. d) Now, if you want to support the site, and get rif of ads, you subscribe. e) And if you don't want to subscribe: don't. You can still use the entire site's functionality. f) Really, people are weird sometimes.... |
|
|
|
No bitcoiner with half a brain gives a shit about what the authorities say about BTC. Speculators are just selling to buy back lower.
Bitcoin was *designed* to be illegal, and to be resilient to authorities actions.
Keep 'em coming ;)
For someone as informed as you (and you usually are), that's a pretty shallow statement. Bitcoin is in many way not "designed to be illegal". Sure, it gives you (more or less) complete freedom to transfer wealth *to whoemever you want to, whenever you want to* (which includes illegal activity), but it also gives government agencies the ability to track you down and punish you (e.g. through the fiat/BTC link via exchanges). Just to see how hard it is to stay fully anonymous, look at the sheepmarket thief/ves being chased through half the ecosystem's tumblers :P (but you know all of this). So in summary: you can do illegal stuff with BTC, sure. But it's far from certain you will *get away with it*, which dampens the freedom part quite a bit. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
