Try thinking a bit, that usually helps.

So you genuinely mean that the whole industrial revolution was not relevant for the financial development?
That the population explosion was not relevant for the financial development?
That the invention of modern communication tools (and computers) was not relevant for financial development?

If this is truly what you believe, then your understanding of economics (and history) is indeed very very poor.

This time is clearly not different - right down to ill-informed short sighted people hyping the latest craze because to them this time it is different

Lol, typical behaviour of people with religious fervor not wanting to learn. And, yes, Bitcoin is a religion with the devoted constantly chanting "hodl" in the hope that is will save them. It will never matter to the believers how many or how few links are posted, it will never be enough. And after the shock of the crash they will be looking for someone else than themselves to blame for their misfortune.

I am sticking to the facts. In 800 years we have seen the invention of the modern financial system, the printing press leading to a mass-enlightenment of the global population, the steam engine, the combustion engine, railways, electronics, instant global communication, an explosion in global population from a few tens of millions of people to 7 billion - and through all of this change, the underlying financial developments were essentially the same over and over again.

Yet in all of this you claim that crypto is so wildly revolutionary that this time it is different? That would be ahistoric, narcissistic and delusional.

It comes up very often as an argument from people defending Bitcoin:

Bitcoin (and/or crypto) is different. Therefore the normal financial rules do not apply. This is something entirely new.

Try reading a well-researched book: https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

They look at 800 ( yes eight-hundred) years of financial developments in the world.

The conclusion is simply: in the past 800 years it was never different.

No matter the massive technological and societal changes in the world over the last 800 years, it was always the same. Given that 800 years of history, do you truly have any single rational argument as to why crypto is any different from the progress seen in the last 800 years? That would be folly to even suggest.

The same argument was used in the lead-up to the financial crisis in 2008/09 with the new financial tools developed
The same argument was used in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble in the late '90s
It is always the same argument. And the end-result is always the same.

Wise choice

So basically your argument is that this time it is different?

Try a little reading: https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

It is a solid well-researched book covering the last 800 years showing that it is never different in terms of financial bubbles. And don't delude yourself into thinking the world has not seen tremendous technological inventions in the past 800 years.....

really - all the ones who bought at 19800$ are better off now wherre we are 16200$ and on a downwards slope?

Little Scottyboy, you still haven't become any wiser I see.

Seems you lack the capability to understand an analogy.... Good luck with getting your fingers burnt.

They are much worse than whales - they have the ability to manipulate the market. In normal exchanges there are strong rules to prevent manipulation. Normal exchanges that do manipulation end with people going to prison. Not so in crypto where there are no rules.

In crypto exchanges employees also trade on the same exchanges for themselves - they know what people want to buy and sell and can use that insider information to make profitable trades for themselves. This is highly illegal in normal exhanges. But not in crypto. In crypto all types of manipulation that people would go to prison for elsewhere is happening. Why do you think sharp traders in Wall Street want to get in on the action? Because here they can use their dirty tricks that are otherwise illegal on normal exchanges.

You are like the man jumping off the roof of a 100-floor building. I am telling you initially it is stupid to jump. You tell me that crypto is something new that gravity cannot touch.

You then jump. When you are 50 floors away from hitting the ground, I am warning you to pull the string on your parachute as otherwise you will be sorry. You tell me it is all FUD and old-fashioned gravity does not matter in the crypto world.

When you are then 20 floors away from hitting the ground - going even faster now - I again warn you to pull the string on your parachute. Now your argument is that because you still having hit the ground, that my warning is just FUD and the in the world of crypto gravity still does not matter, because nothing bad has happened yet.....

I am not bearish. I am just telling you exactly how that jump of yours is going to end.

There are already press stories out where whales are saying they have sold the Bitcoin and taken home the profit. This has been taking place since November. They do it slowly over time to get the best price in order for the crash only to come as late as possible

Well said

No real point in discussing with you as you are clearly incapable of rational analysis. The crash is coming, that is unchanged. That this is a bubble is beyond any doubt. That the bubble is driven by a combination of greed and sheer blind stupidity is also beyond a shadow of a doubt. The whales are in the process of cashing out, leaving the naive to take the fall.

Completely wrong - the marketplaces are rife with manipulation and deceit. See the update on it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2625249.0

A very good solid write-up by David Gerard showing exactly how the bitcoin price is manipulated and people are cheated.

If you do not want to read the whole piece this is the important part:

When you buy normal securities or commodities, you assume that the trading environment is regulated sensibly, and that the exchanges keep to the rules set by law and, fundamentally, won’t mess you around.

You can’t assume this at all in crypto trading. This is what “unregulated” means.

The important thing about securities regulations is that every single one is there because someone ripped a lot of people off that way. They ensure market integrity.

(One glaring example was the 2016 collapse of iGot in Australia, which hit a lot of small-time retail investors: “I just assumed that since they’re in Australia there would be some sort of safety net or regulation or something like that — bare minimum — where he could be accountable for his actions.”)

There are various shenanigans that are banned on real securities exchanges for good reason, but are standard in crypto:

wash trades — where you trade with yourself, to pump the price up or down, or just create the illusion of trading volume. You could literally do this in the Bitfinex trading engine quite recently.
spoofing — where you place a large order to create the illusion of market optimism or pessimism, and cancel as soon as the price gets anywhere near it. This is endemic on Bitfinex and Coinbase/GDAX.
painting the tape — like wash trading, but with two or more participants. Mark Karpelès admitted in court that he had been using the “Willybot” to pump up the Bitcoin price on the Mt. Gox exchange during the 2013 Bitcoin bubble.
front-running — where an exchange operator takes advantage of a buy or sell order before other customers can.
insiders with access to the database trading on their own exchange — Bitfinex officers trade on the exchange themselves. They state that they avoid conflicts of interest, but there is no oversight or transparency on this.



The full piece is here: https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2017/12/17/why-you-cant-cash-out-pt-1-why-bitcoins-price-is-largely-fictional/

Wow - because your arguments are soooo much stronger because you are shouting....

As everyone knows, the moment where you run our of arguments and realize you are badly wrong - but don't want to admit to yourself - you start shouting.

The extreme escalation in transaction times is there to ensure the whales can cash out but that smaller investors cannot.

Whales can make large transactions, the fees do not mean as much to them.

At the same time the small investors cannot cash out because their investment is quite small compared to the fees.

The result is the following:

- Whales are cashing out, converting to fiat
- Newbies are buying from the whales in the hope of continues increases
- Existing smaller investors do not want to sell now (despite possible large profits) because of the high fees is you only have a small investment (Today another bitcoiner on this forum has to pay a 20$ fee for a 50$ transaction).

When the whales have completed the sell-off, smaller bitcoin investors can finally begin to sell and that will be the trigger for a complete collapse in the price.

They are the ones choosing to process the highest fees first