Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

March Madness – Who will win the NCAA Basketball Championship?

Okay, it is March 15 and it is finally time for the March Madness when we all start to follow NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament. So, find and print your full bracket and enjoy next three weeks following college basketball. At Fairlay you can already find markets for all the opening games and you will be able to find the great odds as well till the final game scheduled for April 4: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/basketball/ncaa/match/.

But, as many of us don't follow college basketball from game to game, we like to place bets on the final winner and follow them from round to round, hopefully to the final. And of course, you can choose from the 68 teams involved. This year the first favorite for the title is team of Kansas Jayhawks which is the NCAA tournament's first overall seed after a 30-4 season and a Big 12 championship win, with offense that has averaged over 80 points per game this season.

Kansas is followed by North Carolina Tar Heels that is No.1 seed in East Region, and then we have Michigan State Spartans which won the Big Ten championship on Sunday before the selection show, so are team in a good form. Virginia Cavaliers and Kentucky Wildcats complete Top 6 favorites per odds but you probably have your own favorite, and considering all the potential surprises, to bet on ‘Other’ would also be a smart option, with great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ncaa-basketball-championship-2016-winner/.

All in all, March Madness starts tonight, so who is your favorite and have you already printed your full bracket?

When will Ethereum switch to Proof-of-Stake? May 2017? November 2017? Before, or even later?

Pi day (today, March 14), we get Homestead on mainnet, which is the second major version release of the Ethereum platform, that includes several protocol changes and a networking change which gives its users the ability to do further network upgrades. So, it is another big step for Ethereum after the Ethereum Frontier network launched on July 30 last year and developers began writing smart contracts and decentralized apps to deploy on the live Ethereum network.

After that, next phase in the Ethereum launch process should be Metropolis (that will open gates to the masses) and then really important Serenity phase. It is the last phase and has one key principle - to switch the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake - essentially reducing the power consumption of the Ethereum network. Protocol used for this is called Casper 'the friendly ghost’ because it is an adaptation of some of the principles of the GHOST (Greedy Heaviest-Observed Sub-Tree) protocol for proof-of-work consensus to proof-of-stake.

Anyway, if you want to read and learn more about Serenity and Casper, then check the Ethereum Blog so you can react better to the following markets regarding Ethereum’s change from Proof-of-Stake to Proof-of-Work. At the moment, it is certain that this change will happen but the date is still unknown. There were talks that it could be this summer but Proof-of-State phase probably won’t be completed before 2017. For those of you who believe it will be soon enough, there is market that Ethereum will switch to it before before May 1, and the second date is November 1 next year.

You can find both of your markets here:

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before May 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-may-1-2017/

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before November 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-november-1-2017/

So, what is your opinion on this change to Proof-of-Stake, and do you think it will be made soon? Also, which other Ethereum related markets would you like to see created in the future?

AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol – 2:0 for AI, can humanity make a comeback?

"Yesterday I was surprised but today it's more than that — I am speechless," said Lee Sedol in the post-game press conference, after he once again resigned, in the second of five Go matches that are these days played in Seoul against AlphaGo, the computer created by Google's DeepMind.

In the first match Sedol was nervous but today he almost made no mistake but AlphaGo was still too strong for him. So, after Lee earlier predicted he'd win 5-0 or 4-1 at worst, he now needs to come out on top in all three remaining games whereas AlphaGo could wrap up the series by Saturday when the next match is scheduled.

Lee this morning literally dropped his jaw for few seconds after the jaw-dropping move by Alpha Go

Fairlay continues to follow this interesting match though it is almost sure that AlphaGo will prevail in the end. But it is the question can Lee win at least one match and could he stop AphaGo in the next one, though today AlphaGo was confident in victory from the midway point of the game.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in Match 3:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-match-3/.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match-1/.

So, AplhaGo in a huge favorite to prevail overall but also a big favorite to win the third match of the series as well. But do you think a day rest will help Sedol to find a way to outmaneuver AlphaGo in the next match or is it all done for him?

Florida and Ohio next Tuesday – Will Trump secure nomination by winning both of them?

Another Tuesday and another nice day for Donald Trump who yesterday won Mississippi, Michigan and even Hawaii, losing only Idaho in which Cruz prevailed. So, Trump enjoys Tuesdays and next one could be remembered as Tuesday when he became unstoppable. Super Tuesday was a big step towards nomination, yesterday he almost for sure got rid of Marco Rubio and it is he or Ted Cruz now.

Being unable to win even Hawaii in which he was favorite, Marco Rubio is with poor chances before his home primaries in Florida on March 15. Rubio put a lot in Florida campaign but, as he did almost nothing in countries prior to it, it is almost sure that Trump will win Florida as well and put a sad end to Rubio's campaign. Pools are also in favor of Trump but if you think Rubio could still make a surpirse find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-florida-republican-primary/

How dominant is Trump shows that on March 15 he could also defeat John Kasich in his home state of Ohio. Kasich’s chances for winning Ohio are also going down from day to day and his chances are already even with those of Trump’s. So, these important winner-take-all primaries in Ohio and Florida on March 15 could determine the fates of both Rubio and Kasich. And if you think that Trump will win Ohio as well you can find good odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-ohio-republican-primary/.

So, what is your opinion on Ohio and Florida and what other primaries markets would you like too see created?

AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol – It is 1:0 but who will prevail in the end?

“#AlphaGo WINS!!!! We landed it on the moon. So proud of the team!! Respect to the amazing Lee Sedol too,“ twitted Demis Hassabis, Founder & CEO of DeepMind that had built AlphaGo, a system of networks capable of beating a champion Go player. In fact, this morning AlphaGo defeated legendary Go player Lee Sedol in the first of five historic matches being held in Seoul, South Korea.

“Where were you daddy when humans first surrendered to the machines,“ was another of the tweets as the first match between AlphaGo and Lee Sedol was followed all around the globe this morning (all the matches start at 04.30 AM CET time). But in the end, those cheering for humanity weren’t too lucky as Lee resigned after about three and a half hours, with 28 minutes and 28 seconds remaining on his clock.

AlphaGo won the first match and is a big favorite to win this match overall but it did make few mistakes, while Lee Sedol was just too nervous, so the best human player is still with chances to make a comeback. Thus, he is given solid chances to prevail in the second match that is on schedule tomorrow. It will surely be another big fight and you already have markets created for both total and the second match winner:

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in Match 2:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-match-2/.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match-1/.

Who do you support in this popular Go match between AI and humanity, and what are your opinions on the following matches? Also, are there some similar matches for which you would like to see markets being created?

Hawaii and Idaho tomorrow – Will Trump lose both of them?

Donald Trump had a bad night on Saturday, losing Kansas and Maine to the doctrinaire Texan, Ted Cruz, and winning Louisiana and Kentucky only narrowly. But it is time for some even more important primaries and looks like Trump will prevail in both Michigan and Mississippi tomorrow but big question is will he at the same time lose Idaho and Hawaii?

After Marco Rubio won Puerto Rico last night, he is also the biggest favorite to win the Hawaii Caucus as there are opinions that he gained a bit of the momentum with that win and that he is part of the establishment that voters in Hawaii like. But, again, Puerto Rico's concerns are very different than Hawaii’s and there could be another ‘Trump factor’ here. Anyway, if you favor Trump, odds on his win here are better than in most countries so bet now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-hawaii-republican-caucus/.

Though, odds on Trump's win are even (though not by a much) bigger in Idaho where Ted Cruz is the first favorite and Marco Rubio almost without any chances, though some think that he could be a dark horse and a huge surprise as he already invested lot of time and resources in Idaho, and visited Idaho three times, more than any other candidate did.

Of course, Cruz is the main favorite after winning Maine and Kansas, as Idaho is also a religious conservative state with high population of Mormons. And in 2012 Romney easily won Idaho so his negative comments towards Trump could also mean a lot. Anyway, Idaho's primary will surely draw a lot of attention tomorrow and you can either favor Cruz or go for Trump or even huge surprise win by Rubio but you surely don't want to miss this market, so bet at Fairlay now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-idaho-republican-primary/.

So, what are your opinions on the following primaries, and which other election markets would you like to see created?

Next London Mayor – Khan or Goldsmith?

Exactly two months before the 2016 election for London Mayor, Labour's Sadiq Khan is still the favorite to win the election for London mayor as he has been topping the polls since last summer so media in Britain and world are often asking the question does Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith stand a chance? As all the others candidates do not.

"While Khan has given the impression of covering every angle with know-how and energy, the Goldsmith campaign has, by comparison, looked lethargic and at times ill-judged," says Dave Hill in The Guardian. But, he adds, the outcome is still "hard to foresee with certainty". Because of this Khan is still not a huge favorite and Goldsmith could be a good bet.

"All is not lost for team Goldsmith," says Asa Bennett in the Daily Telegraph. He points out that "Posh Tory" jibes didn't stop David Cameron from winning two general elections, nor Johnson from winning the London mayoralty twice in a row. So, looks like everything is still open and you have two more months to bet at Fairlay on the next London Major:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-london-mayor/.

What are your opinions on the next London Major, and which other UK Politics markets would you like to be created?

Quote from: arthurminton on March 03, 2016, 02:46:01 PM

it would be nice if you added bitcoin prediction and also some major forex pairs as the layout of your looks good. if you add some major forex pairs that would be nicer of you.

Thanks for your suggestion, will look into it. There were already in the past some markets about Bitcoin price so there will be in the future as well, and maybe on the forex pairs also.

Kansas caucuses – Country for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders to win?

Super Tuesday is only two days behind us but it is already time for the new primaries and caucuses that will be held on Saturday, March 5, followed by two more on Sunday. Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska should be easy wins for both Trump and Hillary, so Kansas could be the state mostly talked about when the results come back on Saturday.

Recent polls in Kansas showed that Trump and Hillary are favorites for the win but more important were Super Tuesday results in Oklahoma that was won by Sanders and Cruz. Not only are Oklahoma and Kansas neighbors, their populations have a similar racial and socioeconomic makeup, a similar urban/rural split and a relatively similar electoral size.

So, after Sanders and Cruz won in Oklahoma, could this be repeated in Kansas? Sanders has done better in places where there are a lot of white voters and Kansas has a large white population. Kansas' population also has lower income than other countries Hillary won, so this will favor Sanders as well. If you think that will (not) be enough bet at Fairlay:

Kansas Democratic Caucus – https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kansas-democratic-caucus/.

It is a bit more complicated for the Republicans as both Marco Rubio and Trump were fewer than 10 points behind Cruz in Oklahoma, so small shifts in the electorate this week could change the outcome. Change could also be made by tonight’s Republican debate in Detrorit where Trump will once again be under big attack from both Rubio and Cruz.

Important thing in Cruz’s potential Kansas win could be that the 6 percent of Oklahoma voters who chose Ben Carson could move towards Cruz, another evangelical candidate, now that it's looking more and more as if Carson will be out of the race soon. But, we already now that nothing is sure this year, so you have also good odds on Trump and Rubio:

Kansas Republican Caucus – https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kansas-republican-caucus/.

What are you opinions on this, and would you like to see some other markets created for this weekend’s primaries? Or do you want to bet at markets that could seal the win for both Trump and Hillary, like those in Florida on March 15?

Obama's Next Supreme Court Nominee – Who will it be?

As Super Tuesday was unraveling, President Obama at the same time met with top Senate leaders at the White House to discuss Obama's nomination to fill a Supreme Court vacancy this year, after associate Justice Antonin Scalia was found dead on February 13. But, at it was expected, Senate Republicans said nothing has changed their determination not to give the nominee a hearing as they still think that this appointment should be made by the next president.

But, even after this, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Obama is moving forward with the process of vetting and nominating a Supreme Court justice. On Monday it was announced that President Obama has already tapped Brian Deese, his senior adviser on energy and environment issues, to oversee the upcoming Supreme Court nomination and there are talks that SCOTUS nomination could even come by the end of this week, or surely in the next following weeks.

So now you have created market about who will be Obama's next Supreme Court nominee and the biggest chances are given to judge Sri Srinivasan as he is a top contender if the President wants a so-called consensus nominee who could peel off enough GOP votes to get past a filibuster. He is followed by Loretta Lynch, former U.S. attorney in New York who has a strong record on civil-rights issues as U.S. attorney general.

There are already talks that Democrats might not want to risk burning Srinivasan on a political fight, so other opinions could also be great bets. One of them is Jacqueline Nguyen who was confirmed to the appellate court, 91-3, in May 2012, potentially making it difficult for Republicans to justify voting against her. Rather favorites are also Ketanji Brown Jackson and Jane Kelly who is, on the other side, one with the lack of a judicial record.

Again, with Senate Republicans not wanting to give nominee even a hearing, options ‘Other’ could be a great bet as it is highly unlikely that Senate will confirm Next Supreme Court Nominee so Obama could step away from the popular names. Anyway, you have plenty options to bet on Fairlay and take in mind that this market resolves to Barack Obama's next formal Supreme Court nominee, whether or not the nomination is successful. Place your bet now at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obamas-next-supreme-court-nominee/

And, as usual, you can also suggest you own markets about SOTUS nominations. So, would you maybe like to see market about the gender of the next nominee, or will Senate confirm next, or in fact any of the Obama’s SCOTUS nominees?

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Who will be the winner this year?

With all those Super Tuesday markets being resolved today, it is time to get away from the politics a bit as you now have Eurovision markets at offer. It is two and a half months away as it will take place from May 10-14 in Stockholm, Sweden, following Sweden's victory at the 2015 contest. So, did you predict the winner right last year or is this your year to win?

It is important to note that this years contest will also be the first to implement a new voting system, with each country now awarding two sets of points: one from their professional jury and another from televoting. So, could this change a lot as forty-three countries will participate, including even Australia that returns after debuting as a guest in 2015.

At the moment Australia is among the favorites for the win, though not among the biggest ones that include Russia and Poland. Those are followed by the host Sweden and Latvia, and then by Australia. Among favorites for this year winner are also Germany and France but at Fairlay you also have ‘Other’ option to bet on, and it includes all the other countries:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

So, are you fan of Eurosong, and (with only few more countries having to confirm artists that will represent them), did you already find your favorites for this year or are you among those who think that voting is only a political thing? Even if that is the way you can find country to bet on, and you can also suggest other entertainment markets to be created.