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3201  Economy / Speculation / Re: So what do we think of thing continuous gradual rise of Bitcoin recently? on: April 02, 2019, 07:03:14 AM
Will it dump back to $3000s or are we gonna see it just keep gradually building steam or a big squeeze and watch it shoot way up, and if it does shoot up will that signal the start of the bull market like Oct 2015 or is it a trap and we've still got months of bottom to watch?

just compare the charts. they look totally different. we're only a short way into forming the bottom this time.

in october 2015, we broke out above resistances that formed 10 months/a year prior. this time, we're nowhere near that. we're still firmly below the $6k resistance we crashed from 4 months ago. yes we've made some baby steps like a weekly higher high, but we also did the same thing in q4 2014 before capitulating to new lows the following january.

people are getting bullish very quickly.....yet another sign the bottom isn't in. 2015 was nothing like that---everyone was so pessimistic.
3202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does any body know what happened to today's price? on: April 02, 2019, 06:51:31 AM
The price hit 5,000 today. Obviously, it will fall back to 4,000 these days. But does anybody know what the hale it is?

a key resistance ($4200) was broken. lots of stop losses were sitting right above that breakout area. looks like some big liquidations too. margin calls + stop run = fast price movement. it doesn't necessarily indicate a new bull market or anything, just that temporarily shorts were heavy, supply was low and demand was strong.

i'm really glad to see this breakout though. it's the first weekly higher high since december 2017. i think we're really carving out a bottom range now. give it 6 more months and we might just have ourselves a bull market.

For reference, look at October 2015, same thing happened to start the last bull run.

way less time has passed this time, with a much less significant breakout. we're gonna form the upper end of a range with this rally IMO. i think people are getting a bit too overexcited right now.
3203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin just popped! $4700! on: April 02, 2019, 06:45:05 AM
nice short squeeze. this is going a lot faster than i hoped though---nearly hitting my lowest asks already. sometimes things go "too far too fast" like the rally off $3120s in december. in those situations, momentum burns out fast.

still, we consolidated for a couple months, so we should push back into the $5000s methinks. overall i'm hesitant to expect a real bull run though. it'll probably smack into the $5600-$6k area and bleed back down again.
3204  Other / Meta / Re: Anal-isis – KYC Process status on: April 01, 2019, 09:17:42 AM
i'm so glad there are 887 other people here who are confused about their gender! who knew? this is so liberating DdmrDdmr! lol.

Quote
Vatican City 123.431

interesting! Tongue

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With an area of only 110 acres (0.17 square miles) and a 2018 population of around 840 inhabitants, Vatican City is the smallest internationally recognized independent state in the world.
3205  Other / Meta / Re: KYC now required on: April 01, 2019, 09:05:00 AM
kyc? ruby rhod don't play that shit!



theymos you scared the shit outta me for a second. i thought maybe the forum got hacked and this was a lame phishing attempt. Smiley

edit: ✅ Verified Bitcoiner, nice!
3206  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-03-31] Bitcoin [BTC] ETF: SEC stalls proposal yet again; decision pushed.. on: April 01, 2019, 08:56:27 AM
It's time for the SEC to cut through this dog shit. It's already known to them that the ETF proposals in their current form don't stand a chance to be approved, especially not while the proposals are also coin backed.

you think a futures-backed fund is more likely to be approved? they rejected several of those last year too.

I think the only reason they keep delaying their decisions instead of rejecting them directly, is to avoid making themselves look anti Bitcoin in the public with how easily triggered people in the crypto world are.

why would they care about triggering bitcoiners? Cheesy

Meanwhile, exchanges tokens price are skyrocketing because people speculate that somehow it will increase 100x like Binance did. Hype is too great to deny.

in the right environment (a bull market) they just might. it's too early for that though. the hype won't sustain and these rallies will get sold into. 100x and better opportunities are few and far between right now.
3207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are we are the beginning of a new bullrun? on: April 01, 2019, 08:38:21 AM
man i figured the bull run wouldn't start till late summer or early fall, but with the price the past 6 weeks or so steadily rising and continuing now at $4100 it could be starting soon. Price is at the top of the bottom range now. Will be interesting to see if it falls back down in the coming week or two or if it breaks out into the mid or high 4000s.

why do you think breaking out of this range = bull run? it could just be a range expansion, fleshing out a longer term trading range. like the july rally in 2015 did.

the way i see it, to call a new bull run we either need to break out of a long term sideways like 2015, or we need to be trading and holding above the $6k resistance. it's only been 3.5 months since the last crash ended (vs 9 months in 2015) so we definitely haven't seen enough sideways yet. i smell a bull trap.
3208  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Binance a “high” regulatory risk on: April 01, 2019, 08:26:05 AM
Out of all the exchanges operating in the Eastern part of the world (operating out of Asia), I am most comfortable with Binance. The primary reason behind this revolves around the lack of fake trading volume on their exchange, and the prevalence of fake trading volume around other exchanges.

i don't buy that. binance has all the signs of volume pumping, they just don't make it quite as obvious as other exchanges. its thin-ass books look exactly like okcoin's always did. such volume, much impress, but never any bids to dump into. right...... Roll Eyes

Even though the New York State AG sent an inquiry to Binance, I do not believe the NYAG has jurisdiction over them.

if they're serving new york customers then they do. binance receives (and presumably responds to) subpoenas from USA regulators all the time. shapeshift similarly doesn't process fiat and doesn't even hold custody of funds; they received 44 subpoenas in the second half of 2018, mostly from USA agencies.
3209  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Buying Used Computer Equipment For CryptoCurrency Unsafe? on: March 31, 2019, 07:02:45 PM
When i got in to crypto Desember 2017 i did buy a new laptop only for crypto. I use this laptop only to buy and sell crypto and i have another one that i use to pay bills and read emails and so on.

that is an unnecessary overkill my friend. you have spent a lot of money on something that you only use for cryptocurrencies and it is not that safe if it is connected to the internet so you are not really increasing your security.
if you wanted to spend money like that, then you could have simply bought a hardware wallet to store your bitcoin (and a bunch of other altcoins that are copies of bitcoin) which would have cost a lot less and provided a lot more security.

it might be overkill but for some people (especially the more gullible ones) this is a basic defense against social engineering and malware attacks so a couple hundred bucks for a cheap laptop might be a small price to pay. i wouldn't want to keep private keys or log into exchange accounts on the same PC i use to torrent or open email attachments.

i don't keep any keys online myself but that also requires a second (offline) pc. i prefer the airgapped pc/qr code method for signing tx vs hardware wallets. i'm still a tad paranoid about using hardware wallets with potentially infected computers. maybe i'm just old school.
3210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin in the Event of a Global Economic Crisis on: March 31, 2019, 05:13:36 PM
The Dollar is going to make one last moon shot before it collapses. Just like supernova. Bitcoin will survive no matter what happens but it is not going to moon right away.

The FED prints USD constantly but people still refuse to spend. Actually, most people don't even get that printed money so they can spend. The newly printed money goes to the uber rich people instead.

This is going to blow up so bad but like I said, despite all the money the FED has printed, just because those elites refuse to distribute the money, the dollar liquidity will dry out and it'll moon... and go zero.

there's definitely some logic to what you're saying. but what's the timeline on that? will it coincide with a global economic crisis, or come before/after? i think that'll make a big difference for bitcoin's performance.

looking at the DXY (dollar index), the current chart quite reminds me of the late 90s. it definitely doesn't look ready for a crash yet. the stock market doesn't look ready yet either.
3211  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-03-30] Bithumb, leading Korean exchange, hacked again?! on: March 31, 2019, 04:55:17 PM
I remember an interview with CEO Brian Armstrong where he said that he doesn't have access to any of Coinbase's cold wallets. In order to gain access to these funds, different members within Coinbase have to sign.

It's cool and all that cold wallets are being secured properly, but hacks and insider thefts most of the times concern hot wallets, and these hot wallets can be emptied by every employee who knows where to dig.

In most cases when it concerns insider thefts, you see that before the actual theft the hot wallet has been topped up (in some cases topped up beyond their regular top up amount) and then emptied.

that's probably not the end of the world in coinbase's case. according to them, they keep <2% of crypto in hot wallets, and the hot wallets are fully insured in the case of a hack or inside job:

Quote
Coinbase prioritizes the security of our customer's funds, all digital currency that Coinbase holds online is insured. If Coinbase were to suffer a breach of its online storage, the insurance policy would pay out to cover any customer funds lost as a result. Coinbase holds less than 2% of customer funds online. The rest is held in offline storage.

Please note that the insurance policy covers any losses resulting from a breach of Coinbase’s physical security, cyber security, or by employee theft.

if the cold wallets are ever breached, the shit will hit the fan though.
3212  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-03-30] Bithumb, leading Korean exchange, hacked again?! on: March 30, 2019, 08:17:01 PM
it's probably state-sponsored north korean hackers. these guys are relentless and exchange hot wallets are a gold mine for them. i would hate to be running a south korean exchange in this environment.

just a couple days ago, kaspersky lab released a report saying state-sponsored hackers are targeting crypto exchanges, and are disproportionately focused on south korean targets:

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The Kaspersky Lab report further states that Lazarus is only hosting malware on rented servers. Compromised servers are used to host the command & control scripts. For some reason, Lazarus is disproportionately focused on North Korea’s geopolitical rival, South Korea.

As cryptocurrency exchanges are top of the list among the North Korean hacking group’s targets, Kaspersky Lab has urged vigilance
3213  Economy / Speculation / Re: GAME game *game* "GAME" QUARTER PREDICTIONS on: March 30, 2019, 08:57:21 AM
hmmm this is getting interesting. Smiley
3214  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen when the stock market crashes? on: March 30, 2019, 08:53:26 AM
There might be a reason why bitcoin follows the stock market crash.

huh ? both are not simillar so how can you say that  bitcoin follows the stock market ?

i don't see the stock market as leading bitcoin. it's more that they are correlated because they are both directly affected by some of the same global economic factors. the idea of "risk-on risk-off" is illustrative of the connection:

Quote
Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments; when risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments.

Investors' appetites for risk rise and fall over time. At times, investors are more likely to invest in higher-risk instruments than during other periods, such as during the 2009 economic recovery period. The 2008 financial crisis was considered a risk-off year, when investors attempted to reduce risk by selling existing risky positions and moving money to either cash positions or low/no-risk positions, such as U.S. Treasury bonds.

so it's not that bitcoin follows stocks. it's that both markets are high risk and are likely to decline during "risk-off" periods like during/after financial crises and recessions.
3215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin in the Event of a Global Economic Crisis on: March 30, 2019, 08:42:07 AM
What will happen in the event of another global financial crisis (GFC), as it is speculated that a GFC is meant to cycle in about a decade. According to Bitmex, the next wave of a GFC should truly test Bitcoin as a store of value, and I agree.

https://blog.bitmex.com/anatomy-of-the-next-global-financial-crisis/

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

it'll survive no matter what, but how well the price fares is a matter of time. if a global financial crisis began tomorrow, i think bitcoin would fall on really hard times. if the crisis begins 20 years from now (after bitcoin has grown exponentially network-wise and matured as an asset class), i think it will hold its value much better. maybe we'll find some middle ground between these two scenarios.

the wild card is whether fiat currencies like the USD or EUR maintain confidence through all of this. if they were to collapse, hard money like gold and bitcoin would see a massive influx of investment IMO.
3216  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Could BTC ever be manipulated like Wall Street is? on: March 29, 2019, 11:51:39 PM
Btc cant be manipulated like wall street in bitcoin everything is the transparent and limited number of supply of coins every one can trade but cant manipulate the prices

the paper/derivatives bitcoin markets won't be so transparent. a company like bakkt might periodically disclose how many bitcoins are in its vault, but they won't disclose when bitcoin collateral gets rehypothecated. in physically settled commodity markets on wall street, uncovered positions are totally legal and normal. essentially this facilitates a fractional reserve collateral system where multiple parties all believe they have claim to the same collateral (in this case, bitcoins). not only does that create big custodial risks but it will also create a downward pressure on price (just like the paper gold market) because it effectively inflates the coin supply. as long as people view bitcoins and paper bitcoins as interchangeable, the supply can be diluted.
3217  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-03-28] The Economist: Bitcoin revival unlikely.... on: March 29, 2019, 11:36:32 PM
Is Bitcoin Fundamentally Incapable of Mass Adoption? The Economist Thinks So.

An article out today in the Economist lists several reasons why Bitcoin may never have a “long-lasting” recovery. The unnamed author writes, in part:

Quote
“The bust has been correspondingly brutal. Those who bought near the top were left with one of the world’s worst-performing assets. Cryptocurrency startups fired employees; banks shelved their products. On March 14th the CBOE said it would soon stop offering Bitcoin futures.”

so the Economist is basically declaring bitcoin dead? that's great news! this is the type of sentiment we need to put in a real long term bottom. at the top, everyone is interested. at the bottom, not so much. Wink

this all happened in 2014-15 too. merchants were dropping bitcoin, miners were liquidating operations, banks (like citibank) were shelving their crypto plans, exchanges were shutting down or exit scamming left and right. we've seen this before.

the CBOE futures listing never gained ground against CME. they marketed and packaged it badly and a re-tooling was necessary. i'm not sure it's just the crypto winter that caused them not to re-list the contract. CME is going full steam ahead as expected.
3218  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-03-28] Bitcoin Exchange Coinbene Swears it Wasn’t Hacked: Traders Fear the on: March 29, 2019, 11:34:58 AM
it takes governments years to figure out what's going on

Agree with the rest but not with this one.
I'm not talking about the government finding a way to regulate trade or put in place legislation.

I'm talking about the IRS (or whatever it is called in those parts)  looking at the financial data of some exchanges and the profit they declare and not take action.

i dunno how things work in east asia but in the USA these cases would take years to play out IMO. the IRS and CFTC and agencies like that take their sweet time building cases.

speaking of manipulation, the CFTC/DOJ investigation into bitfinex and tether has been ongoing for ~15 months now.

No matter what jurisdiction they go they must present an income sheet at the end of the fiscal year, and when this is messed by 10x-20x you're in trouble.

I think this is the reason why Binance chose to go from HK(?) then to Japan and then flee to Malta, the way "big" exchange are not spending more than two years in the same country is an alarm bell.

could be. i'm certainly suspicious of binance's volumes. it must be getting tougher and tougher to keep running such a large exchange while dodging KYC compliance too.
3219  Economy / Exchanges / Re: CoinBene: Exchange Lost At Least $105 Million on: March 29, 2019, 11:25:45 AM
here we go again..... i see they're pulling the old radio silence + "maintenance" routine. Roll Eyes

coinbene always seemed to fake lots of volume so i'm guessing this is a really big chunk of their reserves. good luck to anyone with funds there. it sounds pretty bad.
3220  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-03-28] Bitcoin Exchange Coinbene Swears it Wasn’t Hacked: Traders Fear the on: March 29, 2019, 10:47:52 AM
Coinbene's volumes are super fake for sure. The way their volume bars are so consistently high doesn't make sense at all. During times where every well established exchange doesn't generate much volume, Coinbene continues to generate a lot, and that's very suspicious.

OKEx is a known volume cheater, just like its partner in crime Huobi. These Asian exchanges are still forming a problem today after all the years, and this is why the SEC isn't keen on granting Bitcoin an ETF.

This is one thing I don't get.
What are the IRS counterparts in those countries doing?

Because if you fake your volume and I assume by at least 10-20 times, you can't declare that you have made 1 million profits a year with 150 billion traded on your exchange.

I know is China where you can bribe everyone and the government is not touching business run by their own families but there must be a point where it goes way too much out of order and I honestly think we're past the point where intervention is needed.

interestingly enough, china is the only country that's done anything about it. the chinese government started auditing the leading exchanges in january 2017 and if you look at the okcoin and huobi charts, you can see their reported volumes plummeted at this time before they were eventually forced offshore:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/btccny

i guess singapore, hong kong etc. are slower to do anything. but i feel like these exchanges are only nominally operated from there anyway. it takes governments years to figure out what's going on. and with all these exchanges in so many different jurisdictions, it's hard to imagine the problem will go away anytime soon. it's a legal clusterfuck.
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