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3201  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: June 16, 2022, 04:36:46 AM
~snip~
Brazil and Argentina no longer enjoy a monopoly in football, like they used to do two decades ago. Other countries (mostly Europeans) have caught up, thanks to players of migrant origin (especially in the case of countries such as Germany, England, France and Belgium). Those European teams that are mainly comprised of native players are still a level behind the CONMEBOL teams. I am talking about teams such as Italy, Serbia and Poland. IMO, this time the champions may come from UEFA, and for CONMEBOL the prospects doesn't look very bright.

Europe has always been in the top of the world cup. If you look at historical results, UEFA is at the top, with CONMEBOL as a close second, mostly thanks to Brazil and Argentina(and Uruguay). The rest of the confederations are way behind these two.

To date, the final of the World Cup has only been contested by teams from the UEFA (Europe) and CONMEBOL (South America) confederations. European nations have won twelve titles, while South American have won nine.
Only two teams from outside these two continents have ever reached the semi-finals of the competition: United States (North, Central America and Caribbean) in 1930 and South Korea (Asia) in 2002. The best result of an African team is reaching the quarter-finals: Cameroon in 1990, Senegal in 2002, and Ghana in 2010. Only one Oceanian qualifier, Australia in 2006, has advanced to the second round.
3202  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The UEFA Nations League 2020/2021 Discussion Thread on: June 16, 2022, 12:36:35 AM
~snip~
A league intended to replace friendlies ended up with the results of friendlies games. Unpredictable, random, weird...
France will end up 4th or 3rd in best cases. England too.
Meanwhile Turkey, Greece and Lettonie are the only ones to almost guarantee the 1st place before 2 rounds from the end of the group stage.

Yeah, it's a bit random.

I think it's good practice for the teams that didn't qualify for the world cup, and other weaker teams.

For the big teams it just seems like a bit of a waste of time and energy that could be focused preparing for the big tournaments, or just resting really. Some teams have crazy schedules which end up lowering the performance of their players.
3203  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 266 blocks solved! on: June 16, 2022, 12:25:08 AM
~snip~
Actually you are mistaken, the second formula you have given is the probability of rolling two sixes simultaneously with TWO dice, not rolling a 6 consecutively.

It's tricky to use probabilities in normal language because there are many possible ways to interpret what a person means.

Let's make it crystal clear continuing the dice analogy:

The probability of rolling a 6 with a dice is 1/6.

The probability of rolling two 6 in a row with one dice, which is the same as rolling two 6 with two dices, is 1/6 * 1/6 (independent events), which is 1/36.

Now, the probability of rolling a second 6 given that the previous roll was a 6, is still 1/6. In the end you still see two 6 rolled in a row, but the probability will be only 1/6 because the other event already happened or has a known outcome.This is different to the scenario where you still don't know the outcome of the two rolls, in which case the probability of it happening is 1/36.

This concept has even been used as a joke:

A famous statistician would never travel by airplane, because he had studied air travel and estimated the probability of there being a bomb on any given flight was 1 in a million, and he was not prepared to accept these odds.
One day a colleague met him at a conference far from home. "How did you get here, by train?"
"No, I flew"
"What about your the possibiltiy of a bomb?"
Well, I began thinking that if the odds of one bomb are 1:million, then the odds of TWO bombs are (1/1,000,000) x (1/1,000,000). This is a very, very small probability, which I can accept. So, now I bring my own bomb along!"
3204  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is it possible to have a non-custodial checkout without running a full node? on: June 15, 2022, 04:25:30 PM
If you only care about non-custodial part, you can use 3rd party service such as Mycelium Gear[1] and Coinbase Commerce[2] where you give your master public key to them.

[1] https://gear.mycelium.com/
[2] https://commerce.coinbase.com/

I have never heard of Mycelium Gear before. It looks very promising, as it's non-custodial, open source, has plugins for websites, and you can even get it for free for up to 0.1BTC a month. Really interesting. The only downside I can see about it is that it doesn't seem to support lightning.

Coinbase Commerce seems to have lightning, and it's just 1% fee. Not too bad really. I always assumed it was custodial only.

Thanks for the options, they look really easy to use. Will have a look at them.
3205  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: June 15, 2022, 08:18:37 AM
~snip~
Frankly, I didn't get to watch the game, but a quick scan at the stats shows that, New Zealand was the better side of them both yesterday.
They had better and higher Ball possession in both half's of the game,more goal attempt and also more shot on goal.
The former Arsenal international Joel Campbell scored an early goal which also would have played a part, a red card was seen in the match which I know would have also reduced their pressure on Costa Rica. This would be the sixth time Costa Rica has qualified for the FIFA World Cup. Congratulations to Keylor Navas and the full Costa Rican National team as they will return to Qater November.

The Experienced Keylor Navas also played a big part in holding and maintaining a single goal and tried to keep if pressure from the New Zealand side at home soil.
The home side was favorite to win though, ( having lesser odds ) But New Zealand had much impact, the red card had negative effect on them I see.

Costa Rica didn't attack as much as New Zealand did. Although New Zealand missed so many chances, it was a bit ridiculous sometimes.

At the end there was a really good shot but the keeper from Costa Rica did a wonderful save. Man of the match right there, saving his team.

New Zealand scored once actually, but it was after they committed a foul, so it was not a valid goal. Such a shame that one of the few times they actually attacked properly was cancelled.

In the end the early goal from Costa Rica, which wasn't even good, ended up giving them the qualification.

At the end of the day, you have to score more than your rival, even if you attack less.
3206  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: June 15, 2022, 02:02:04 AM
Quite disappointing results from the playoff. I don't have anything against Costa Rica, but I wanted at least one team from Oceania participating in the world cup (Australia is a part of the AFC, and they no longer represent Oceania). In the end, it was a very close match, but New Zealand lost their golden chance to qualify. Anyway, next time (2026 World Cup), they are almost assured of a slot, since the number of participants are going up and there is one dedicated slot for the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC). I expect not much competition for New Zealand, since their ranking is far higher than the second and third placed teams (Solomon Islands & New Caledonia).

Australia used to win all the time in OFC, so they moved them to AFC. I think they will continue to dominate AFC now.

And in theory New Zealand should be dominating OFC now, but they still need to learn and practice a lot more, after watching this game. They need better strikers, who actually score. They lost so many chances.

But yeah, next world cup will be a bit easier to qualify, hopefully that doesn't bring the whole level down in the actual competition.
3207  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 266 blocks solved! on: June 15, 2022, 01:57:32 AM
~snip~
thank you man. i guess if you guys find a block, which i really hope you do, then i may pass as the odds of finding a block two times in a row are small.....not impossible, but let me ponder on it. I guess it also depends on a few other factors. i will let you know soon. thank you very much good ser! now go get that block!!! Grin

There's no "memory" in probabilities.

The chance of finding a block is the same every time (given same difficulty).

The fact that a block was found right now doesn't mean the next one can't be found right after (or even at the same time).

It's like saying the probability of getting a 6 in a dice roll changes if you just got a 6. It doesn't. It's still 1/6 for the next roll as well.
3208  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC on other chains is not BTC on: June 15, 2022, 01:54:29 AM
I don't know about others, but I don't think this Defi locking up actual Bitcoin to acquire Xbitcoin on another chain is a good idea. If the token of that chain is so valuable and has the tendency to become one of the most valuable coins like bitcoin, they wouldn't want to lock up people's bitcoin on any protocol merely to promote liquidity, that's what BSC, SOl, ETH, FTM, and other layer 1 and 2 projects are doing, and it's always likely that the real Bitcoin on-chain, which is locked up in the protocol, may be compromised, just the way we experienced Celcius halted withdrawals and asset swapping. If you treasure your bitcoin, always say no when offered an alternate chain, the Bitcoin chain has always been the safest and has never gone down for a second.

Absolutely.

There's no need to buy altcoins when the real thing is still available for purchase.

Just like gold lookalikes, altcoins pretend to be as good as Bitcoin, but they're not.

Don't buy fool's gold, get the real thing!

Fool's Gold can be one of three minerals. The most common mineral mistaken for gold is pyrite. Chalcopyrite may also appear gold-like, and weathered mica can mimic gold as well. Compared to actual gold, these minerals will flake, powder, or crumble when poked with a metal point, whereas gold will gouge or indent like soft lead. In addition, actual gold will leave a golden yellow streak when scraped on a piece of unglazed porcelain. Pyrite and chalcopyrite will leave a dark green to black streak and the common micas will leave a white streak
3209  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: June 15, 2022, 01:50:38 AM
~snip~
Actually I am glad that Australia managed to qualify. This adds more diversity to the world cup, as Australia represents the Oceania continent (although technically they are part of the AFC). If New Zealand is able to defeat Costa Rica today, it will add more diversity to the world cup. Bad news for CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, but it is good to see teams like Australia and New Zealand playing in the world cup. BTW, Australia will be placed in a group alongside France, Danmark and Tunisia. Quite a tough one, if you ask me.

Costa Rica ended up winning against New Zealand, with an early but not beautiful goal. So Oceania will be represented by Australia only.

After watching the New Zealand vs Costa Rica match, they both look a bit weak to be honest. Not sure how much will Costa Rica advance in the world cup.
3210  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: June 15, 2022, 01:47:15 AM
costa rica is now the last team to qualify for the 2022 world cup in qatar.
with a 1-0 win against new zealand, costa rica will now play in a world championship for the sixth time. the team will face germany, japan and spain in group e.

What a game.

New Zealand was attacking all the time, but never actually managed to score. The only time they did score it was after a foul, so it was not valid. And close to the end there was a great save by the Costa Rican goalkeeper. After watching this I reckon New Zealand should practice more at actually shooting the ball into the goal, there were many attempts, but the vast majority were not forced mistakes from the striker.

In the end the early goal from Costa Rica sealed the deal for them. It wasn't pretty, but it's all it takes to win. That's football.
3211  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is it possible to have a non-custodial checkout without running a full node? on: June 14, 2022, 11:09:34 PM
Something like BTCPayServer is great, but it requires to have a Bitcoin node. Yes, you can prune it, but I'm wondering if there is any alternative checkout that uses a Bitcoin light client instead, and ideally has a lightning node on top of it, so that lightning payments can be received as well as on-chain payments.
There is also lightweight alternative for BTCPayServer that is called CypherpunkPay.
It is also open source, Lightning is supported, it's easier to set up and it can work just fine even with cheap $5 VPS, that is not so easy to do with older brother BTCPayServer.
Running a full node is encouraged but not required by CypherpunkPay.

Yeah, I remember that one from an older thread.

How can they work without a node but BTCPayServer can't?, are they using a light node fallback?
3212  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: GekkoScience has a new stickminer that does 300+GH on: June 14, 2022, 11:07:06 PM
~snip~

USB init, open device failed, err -3, you don't have privilege to access - GSH device 1:7
See README file included for help
GekkoScience detect (1:7) failed to initialise (incorrect device?), restarting

USB init, open device failed, err -3, you don't have privilege to access - GSH device 1:8
See README file included for help
GekkoScience detect (1:Cool failed to initialise (incorrect device?), restarting

USB init, open device failed, err -3, you don't have privilege to access - GSH device 1:9
See README file included for help
GekkoScience detect (1:9) failed to initialise (incorrect device?), restarting

Seems like it's picking them up, but there is a permissions issue. This is where I got lost before.

I tried following https://github.com/kanoi/cgminer/blob/master/README, but no luck (assuming I did right)

~snip~

Yeah, it's a permission issue.

If you're running Ubuntu or similar, try running lsusb with sudo:

Quote
sudo lsusb

It should list the sticks.

And if you run cgminer with sudo it should work (sudo cgminer ...)

Of course, you might want to actually run the instructions correctly to not need sudo, but at least running it once will confirm that's the issue.

My guess is that you're not using the correct ticks here (`whoami`). Just change that for your username (kurutoga, or whatever it is), or simply copy and paste each step of the instructions. They work.
3213  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: GekkoScience has a new stickminer that does 300+GH on: June 14, 2022, 05:25:43 PM
Certainly doesn't look fine, if lsusb isn't reporting any sticks.

Right, that's the issue then. They're not being recognized in the computer through the USB interface, I just assumed those listed were the sticks but apparently they're not.

The USB hub data line could be faulty?, I think those hubs have independent power and data(power gets drawn directly from the power point, no power is received from the computer, so the sticks can be getting power(they show lights), but the data connection could be faulty, and therefore not showing up in the computer.

OP mentioned the card got fried, maybe in that episode the USB hub data channel got damaged.

I would suggest trying with a different USB hub.
3214  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Is it possible to have a non-custodial checkout without running a full node? on: June 14, 2022, 01:37:57 PM
After seeing lightning wallets like Blixt, Breez, Phoenix, and others, which basically run a full lightning node on the phone(LND for example), and use a Bitcoin light client(Neutrino for example), I started to wonder if it would be possible to have a similar setup for a light Bitcoin checkout.

Something like BTCPayServer is great, but it requires to have a Bitcoin node. Yes, you can prune it, but I'm wondering if there is any alternative checkout that uses a Bitcoin light client instead, and ideally has a lightning node on top of it, so that lightning payments can be received as well as on-chain payments.

I'm not sure if there's any technical impediment to do this, or if there's any huge drawback other than having to trust other Bitcoin nodes in the network. I think it would be ideal for small amounts on simple websites for example.

Of course you could already do this manually, just using any of these lightning wallets, I'm just wondering if there's anything more dedicated that you could setup on any website for example and it would create the checkout, invoices, etc, for you, without requiring to have a Bitcoin node.
3215  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: GekkoScience has a new stickminer that does 300+GH on: June 14, 2022, 01:25:37 PM
~snip~
Here is my output per your recommendation:

1)
cgminer 4.12.0
Built with gekko icarus mining support.

2)
Bus 002 Device 005: ID 2109:1817 VIA Labs, Inc. USB3.0 Hub            
Bus 002 Device 004: ID 2109:0817 VIA Labs, Inc. USB3.0 Hub            
Bus 002 Device 001: ID 1d6b:0003 Linux Foundation 3.0 root hub

I'm using the USB hub that comes from the bitcoinmerch package: Bitcoin Merch® 7 Port Powered USB Hub. https://bitcoinmerch.com/products/3-x-gekkoscience-compac-f-full-kit-combo-up-to-1-05-th-s

The lights come on for each miner and all have their own Noctua fan installed

Looks like it's all fine. How do you call cgminer? You need to make sure to call the correct options, like gekko-compacf-detect, and others.

Post either the config file you're using, or the command line that you use to run cgminer. It should detect it automatically.

Also, have you tried with just one at a time?

And finally, is the power supply to the USB hub matching what the USB hub requires? (check what's written on each one, Volts, Amps, etc.)
3216  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Too late to start a mining rig? on: June 14, 2022, 12:35:50 PM
Not if you have already bought the parts. Choose a pool and get cracking.

Would betting be better?

You can still "bet" with a miner though.

Instead of joining a mining pool, where you get paid a small amount every few hours/days, you could configure your miner to solo mine.

The odds of finding a block are extremely low with a single miner, but any miner can get a block, and you can get lucky. Even at the first try!.

Or alternatively you end up with zero, forever.
3217  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Too late to start a mining rig? on: June 14, 2022, 10:10:21 AM
~snip~
When you say "Even the smallest USB ASIC miner will be thousands of times better than a great GPU, so you can't realistically mine Bitcoin with a GPU", could you suggest a model and approximate price? I am asking this because I have been mining BTC using Nicehash since last year with 8x 3080s!

You haven't been mining BTC using Nicehash with GPUs.

You have been lending your GPU altcoin hashrate to someone else, and they're paying you in Bitcoin. That's how Nicehash works.

To actually mine Bitcoin, you need to do sha-256 calculations. ASICs are way better than GPUs for that.

A Compac F, which is a small USB ASIC does about 300GH/s, and it sells for about $200-300.

An Apollo BTC, which is a somewhat larger yet still silent, perfect for home, does about 3+TH/s, and it sells for about $500-600.

A GPU is not really comparable because it will be usually hashing altcoins, which have different difficulties. But for SHA-256, they're way worse than any of those ASICs.
3218  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you spend 1 satoshi a day, you will spend 1 BTC is 3 years, 2 months & 1 Day on: June 14, 2022, 03:32:54 AM
~snip~
That's definitely a great website. At least you have some idea of how long you would HODL and have profit. I think the average entries that you would have along the way would always be 3 years and 4 months and 4 days.

I assume this moves along when it's not profitable anymore, right?

Yeah, it's not an average, it's just the worst case scenario over the entire history of Bitcoin. The current hodl line remains the same as it was around the end of 2013. In most cases you're way better off in a shorter amount of time.

It hasn't been changed in years, but it will update automatically if the current hodl line is larger than the previous one from 2013.
3219  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Don't sell your precious BTC to the whales! on: June 14, 2022, 02:48:40 AM
Bitcoin simply isn't convenient enough for every day use. Some people (including myself) could say that Bitcoin wasn't designed for every day usage(despite what Satoshi was claiming in the whitepaper). The expectation of 1 billion daily Bitcoin users will never happen in reality and there's nothing wrong with that.
Nobody is saying that Bitcoin is supposed to be the number 1 global currency. I would be perfectly fine, even if Bitcoin never becomes truly mainstream.
I don't think that anyone could verify the accuracy of this statistical data, but 30 million people seems like a pretty good number for a 12 year old technology.
BTC reaching 1 billion active users seems more like a fantasy, rather than an achievable goal.

Lightning is perfect for every day usage of Bitcoin.

Sites like https://stacker.news are using sats via lightning in a great way. Bitcoin is being transferred daily in sites like that. It's like magic!

Lightning really is changing how people use Bitcoin. It's almost instantaneous, and almost free of fees as well.
3220  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you spend 1 satoshi a day, you will spend 1 BTC is 3 years, 2 months & 1 Day on: June 14, 2022, 02:45:00 AM
That amount of time is very close to the current hodl line: https://hodl.camp

It's currently at 3 years, 4 months, and 4 days.

That means that if you bought Bitcoin at any time in history, and waited that amount of time, your Bitcoin now has more purchasing power than when you acquired it.
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