yes but we had  2 months of huge see-saw hash rates. In Nov and in Dec.

Seems to me  China (bitmaintech) has been setting up this flood the network work idea for quite some time.

They only need 5 months or so of cheap power to do what I am saying.

Maintain a 15 to 20% growth rate until the ½ ing

 They do not need 1x  100 mega watt deal from 1 dam

3x 40 mega watt deals do the trick.  Or 4x 35 mega watt deals.

Remember China has been having an industrial  slump and some of these plants may have excess power.

I picked the biggest dam  because what is 100-150 megawatts compared to 22,500 megawatts

less then 1 percent.  Basically if this is the  tactic being  employed.

 1 cent power with .3 watt machines

A bitfury  owner need 3 cent power with .1 watt machines

both costing the same per th to be on equal ground.

And the bitfury may not be ready until april 1st (hmmm is that a joke)

by april first diff will be 293 -300 and a 10th 1000 watt machine would only be earning 4 usd a day with 10 cent power
and 5.20 usd a day with 5 cent power

And the ½ ing would be 5 diff jumps away.

Of course maybe my FUD about the diff is wrong and after this jump to 170 we go flat

Or back to more normal jumps of 3 to 6 %





Ps thank you for the led light bulb design much better then cfl's

no higher not equal   so 144,116,447,847  need to be beat by

144,116,447,848 or more. I rounded to the hearest whole numbers.

So a stick share of 2,152,593,335 while nice is not close.


I think we did do a 19,000,000,000 a while back.

when we started diff was only 60 it is now 144 this is killing our chances.

In the beginning I ran an extra 2th for the first month.

One month I ran an extra s-7.

In the best months will pulled enough shares to have as high as a 6% chance of a block.

so if he already has ac and can keep the units cool  he has .66 cent a kwatt power.

add .34 cent for the ac  and he has 1 cent power.

I put a copy of this for reference


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1355468.msg13848252#msg13848252

You are welcome.

 I do hope to have a ½ ing misery club pool. I will start it right before the ½ ing

Try to make the pain of it a little less.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

397884 (Main Chain) 2016-02-11 11:58:23  about 12 hours to shut down.


.


http://solo.ckpool.org/workers/1JiWuyX94wrCr7JhkAn7x5qNMCEef1KhqX.Jan11philipma1957sticks


 "bestever": 2,152,593,335   this was a stick not a rental!

Yep I am getting old

picks were supposed to open at 600 and close at 1200


that would be 2016 -  600 = 1416 for open

and  2016 - 1200 = 816 for close

for some reason unknown to myself (at 59 too old is a poor reason)

I was thinking we start at 1216

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,853,772,569 (+22.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1284 Blocks, About 7.7 days    >> I  should have said 1416 not 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,207,789,669 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 25.9 minutes
6 blocks: 51.9 minutes
Updated:   7:10 (1.4 minutes ago)

This contest will be started at 1216.
So since I made a moron mistake
 I will toss in an extra something for the prize.
It will end at 816 so the end time will be the same.

We have 23 blocks to go.

Yeah 48dc is smart idea.  Plenty of good efficient 48 watt  psu from mean well for instance

I will run the 13 sticks on the linux build (my first linux pc)  and due to this thread and compac sticks in general.


I will balance them at mmpool.org and solo using this solo address


http://solo.ckpool.org/workers/1JiWuyX94wrCr7JhkAn7x5qNMCEef1KhqX.Jan11philipma1957sticks

By the spring this will be my only in house gear.

And I will try to have the avalons all in the solar array.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,328,234,415 (+22.35%)
Adjust time:   After 1346 Blocks, About 8.2 days >>>>>>>>>> we open at 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,192,065,789 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.4 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (4.2 minutes ago)

good luck  but this is a no brainer  as +16% is optimistic

I know they are going to be selling the newer gear the 16nm chips.

I am not angry at them.

I am stating this because I feel a huge amount of hash is going online in China as I type.  I feel it is s-7 like .25 - .30 watt gear.

Built cheaply and installed by the builders of it on a 1  cent power deal as a preemptive move against bitfury's .1 watt chip.

If I have 100 mega watts at 1 cent my 300 dollar s-7 beats the bitfury chip.

I think this is what the diff jumps  are about.    So I am merely stating that a working bitfury 16nm needs to be shipping no later then March 1 to have any chance of making money.

We go to 170 diff in 8 days.
We go to 205 diff in 21 days.

It  looks like China will raise the hash rate so high it makes the bitfury chip effectively outdated. For all but a 3 cent power user.

All bitmaintech need is 100 mega watts at 1 cent that = 300 to 400 ph.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam   this plant can do 22,500 mega watts


it looks like we are facing this right here right now.  

I do not push Fud  but if China asic builders cut a deal with the power plant above from now until the ½ ing  the diff could go to 300 really fast.

So I brought up that this 16mn gear needs to be on a site for sale with quick shipping.  Cause in two months at  a diff of 300 we don't need it.


remember what happened to the sp-20 when it tried to compete with the s-5 bitmaintech crushed them.  this looks like bitmaintech trying to crush bitfury.

You are welcome.

Your software and website was very helpful

___________________________________________
___________________________________________





I wish I had the land and it was my solar array.

It is buysolar's place and his profession

But I will supply most of the mining gear. Hopefully it will work out for us.

I am lucky a forum member less then 5 miles from my home in the exact right business for us to do a joint venture of sorts.
____________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________




I did do that magically done karma with a solo block once before.
I hit a block to my address but another guy mined it.

I should look for that link.

________________________________________________
_________________________________________________

Yeah it was fun until "Gollum  and the evil one crept up and slipped away with her"

Led Zeppelin quote dates me but it is how I feel about the difficulty rise.


____________________________________
___________________________________
https://blockchain.info/blocks


397819 (Main Chain)   2016-02-11 03:09:13

about 21 hours left._

Yes that should be good.

you are very welcome.

 and we are now at which is just over 24  hours left.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

397786 (Main Chain)   2016-02-10 23:18:32



I will keep the rentals going until 2016-02-12 00:00:01

http://solo.ckpool.org/workers/1JiWuyX94wrCr7JhkAn7x5qNMCEef1KhqX.Jan11philipma1957sticks

Do a whole house surge protector at your main panel.

Square deal makes them.

You need two open circuits on the panel.

A lot of this can be avoided if you use 2011 or 2012 model mac minis.

Two mac minis say 2012 basic models and a few external cloned hdds with indentical wallets. + bitcoin core.

One macmini uses an internal hdd without bitcoin core 0.11.2

one macmini uses an internal hdd with bitcoin core 0.11.2 it runs the node 24/7/365 and is up to date

clone the hdd 4 copies

 two in a safedeposit box

two in house .

a clone with made with superduper will work on any 2012 model macmini

when it boots and you start bitcoin core you will not be behind by a lot and you can have pretty good backups.

this also solves the dead mother board issue since the cloned hdd will work on any 2012 mac mini.

the biggest security issue is losing the cloned hdd.  but a decent password on the bitcoin core is pretty helpful.

just do not run two cloned  hdds on two mac minis at the same time since they are the same bitcoin core  it could confuse the block chain

nice to something from your company.

you simply look to be far too late to bring the new gear to market.

last few jumps make your gear look poor roi to many of us.

next Jump we go to a diff of 170 and a Hash Rate of 1300 ph.

Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty                   Change   Hash Rate
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s



If you want people to get your gear it needs to be here now.

Last time I purchased Bitfury gear I spent 17 BTC it was delayed and by the time I got it it was obsolete.

  Looks to me like you are bringing out your new gear far too slowly just like you did back in 2013.

I would have liked something maybe 5 to 6 thousand worth  maybe even 10 thousand usd , but It just seems to be I won't get it anywhere near on time.

Next jump a 4th unit fully built for 600 usd that would burn 280 watts looks like an okay piece of gear.

We both know there is no way you will be delivering that unit in 8 days.  More like 8 weeks.

Sad as the gear I purchased from your company (bitfury chips were in it)  was good gear  just came along too late.

@ xZork you are welcome

@ DICE1904 you are welcome.

I will play with that set up .

If you can build 4 th  at 600 usd

that uses .07 watts  which is 280 watts  it could do roi right near the ½ ing

based on  6 cent power----------
based on 600 usd price for the miner

based on 399 usd a coin.

and based on 7% growth.

the need for gear may be not for filled   as diff is that high.




I believe s-7's built at 300-400 usd mining at 2 cents  are doing the diff jump

so lets look at growth and when would chips get into sidehack's hands

crunch numbers yada yada yada this is a bust at 1,000,000 usd for 75,000 chips.

even if a board was made and ready to populate right now.

lets say current hash growth has been done by bitmaintech to hurt the bitfury chip.

they succeeded.

if I make a bitfury miner that can do .07 watts to .12 watts   per gh  20 chip miner

1th to 2th   70watts to 240 watts  the 20 chips will cost me 260 usd

 controller software etc I can't build a board to fit an s-3 as a drop in fit for 300 usd not with chips costing 260
the assembled  board and the shipping  will be at least 350 usd (certainly more)



So I tell an s-1 or an s-3 owner give me 500 for 1 drop in board   that maxes at 240 watts and 2 th

or mins at 70 watts and 1 th  .

I can mail it to you by the 175 diff mark which is in a few days.   so do an roi on a 500$ board  assuming you have an s-1 or an s-3 to drop it into.

roi at 20% is never
roi  at 15% is never
roi at 10% is  never

drop price to 400
power at 6 cents

roi at 20% is never
roi at 15% is never
roi at 10% is never

so a 2th 240 watt drop in board right now does not roi and I am not counting the ½ ing

even if growth drops to 5% it does not roi.

We are watching a play much like Gordian knot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordian_Knot

Chinese mining farms at 2 cent power have decided to max hash and take as many of the coins they can before the ½ ing.

A company that builds the s-7 for 200 or 300 usd and makes 1000ph of them can just add them and keep growth rate over 10%  this unties the knot with brute force.

The 14-16 gear  will lose money at 6 cents power and 400 usd for 2th in hand right now