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3241  Economy / Economics / Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country on: December 26, 2021, 03:27:55 PM
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When given pessimistic information about social mobility, left-wing respondents became even more likely to support economic redistribution. In contrast, right-wing respondents’ support for redistribution did not change.
This, it seems, is merely due to a well-known stubbornness of humans. It's not about this particular evidence being presented to people, but about the way people react in general when presented with evidence that supports or contradicts their opinions. There's a great video showing how it works.
So, to be honest, I don't think there's a reason to explain it based on the particular context of the matter of social mobility.
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With the consensus from only a year ago being that the united states had the largest growing demographic of millionaires and super wealthy. Which could suggest that it is, or was, easier to become wealthy in the USA than in any other nation on earth, only a few years ago in 2019, before COVID hit.
I don't think the article from 2018 actually supports the claim that it's easier to become wealthy in the US. In fact, if you look at the charts at the beginning of it, the actual probability of moving from bottom to top is 7.5% in the US, but around 11% in the UK and France, for example. Please correct me if I'm wrong here.
3242  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto lobbying is going ballistic on: December 26, 2021, 03:06:54 PM
Quote
The EU is preparing rules that force crypto firms to seek licences and ban tweets meant to manipulate markets.
So they'll basically make Musk's tweets illegal in the EU? Because it surely seems that it should count as tweets meant to manipulate the markets. I wonder how legislation like this can truly be enforced and work properly, given that Twitter and other social media don't belong to any governments. It also seems to be a significant restriction of freedom of speech.
As for crypto firms lobbying for favorable legislation, I think it's for the best. Someone has to push the legislators to accept that cryptos are real and in high demand. I only hope that they're lobbying for conditions that will be favorable both for companies and for crypto users in general.
3243  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think crypto is going to replace the dollar? Jack: Yes, Bitcoin will on: December 26, 2021, 02:42:04 PM
I respect Jack and his opinions, but it's worth to note that he is very pro-Bitcoin, and I disagree on the matter of Bitcoin replacing the USD. The USA is very proud of the USD, so it's highly unlikely that this country would abandon it unless absolutely necessary. Even if they did, I don't think Bitcoin, a volatile decentralized digital currency, would be their first choice. After all, it's not a currency they can control, and not really a currency that requires banks, so it won't stand well with the financial institutions of the US. Moreover, countries all over the world trust in the USD because they trust in the USA as a strong economy. There's no similar reason to trust in Bitcoin.
3244  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Elon Musk once again throwing shade at bitcoin on: December 26, 2021, 02:07:29 PM
I wanted to write about how I think Musk is joking because, while he gave Bitcoin a try with Tesla, he did no such thing with Dogecoin. But then I realized that it's no longer true, as in the middle of December Musk actually said that Tesla will start accepting Dogecoin for merch to see how it goes. In that case, perhaps he does think Dogecoin is the way to go. I don't have anything against Doge, except that it's way overrated. Given that the foundation and thus technical support was reintroduced in August 2021, though, at least it's probably safe to use it. Also, while the coin is inflationary, the inflation rate decreases over time. Still, even if Musk goes above and beyond to make Dogecoin more popular than Bitcoin, it's not going to work.
3245  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: There are no decentralized cryptocurrencies on: December 25, 2021, 08:18:20 PM
I think that a decentralized Internet could be a great thing, but given how everyone is already so used to the one we have now, I'm not sure it's possible to switch to a different system (at least, not globally). But the Internet isn't that bad, and given that there are tons of ISPs all over the world, I'd say that access to it IS pretty decentralized, and I don't think it's likely that anyone could be cut off (unless it's a confined space like prison or a totalitarian country like North Korea). Also, I'm not 100% sure, but I believe it's possible to find a workaround and use Bitcoin without the Internet (it would be very difficult, of course, but still).
3246  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why do we need a bull market blow off top ? on: December 25, 2021, 07:55:09 PM
As you know everyone is looking the final blow of top for the bitcoin bull market like it happened in 2017. I have a serious question that why we need a big blow off top to conclude the bull market and enter a bear market.

Consider for a moment that Bitcoin prices moves to all time high of around 130,000$ and then in the next week we are at 90,000$ and then slowly we moved towards 30,000$. Why everyone wants this blow off top ?

Why can't bitcoin stay between 40K to 60K and slowly moves towards 100,000K taking 6 to 8 months and no bear market. Wouldn't it be good for everyone?
I'd honestly be okay if Bitcoin were to, say, stabilize forever around $50k. It's a great price, and then people could be more inclined to view it as a form of money rather an investment. But that, of course, wouldn't be good for traders or long-term investors. Regarding people who want the bear market, it's most likely because they feel that the price is too high to invest now, and they want to buy the dip. So for greedy people, it would not be good if Bitcoin never went into the bear market. As for the actual risk of Bitcoin getting there, I think we already saw it go down from more than $60k to $30k, so I think we're past the bear market now. Bitcoin can still move up and down, but given how things have been over the last couple of years, I don't think we'll see a long bear market (similar to that of 2018-2019) anymore. Bitcoin's too popular, and enough people buy the dip for that to repeat.
3247  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io ⚽ Arsenal + Southampton ⚽ Prediction Contest (Sunday) on: December 24, 2021, 05:11:31 PM
Game 1:  38' 0-3 Arsenal
Game 2:  38' 2-0 West Ham
3248  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Historical Bitcoin Prices😊 on: December 24, 2021, 05:07:46 PM
Not every chosen date would give the same picture, but the general tendency is indeed caught by such price comparison, and that's the fact that Bitcoin has been growing throughout its history. The Christmas Eve list shows a bit of a regress in 2018 and 2019, as well as in 2014 and 2015, but Bitcoin successfully managed to recover and surpass its former achievements. Another list I like is the list of the lowest price points per year because it shows how low Bitcoin can fall at a given time period (and, thus, the level of trust into it). Here's mine, taking approximations from Coingecko:
2014: $320
2015: $172
2016: $384
2017: $900
2018: $3,200
2019: $3,500
2020: $5,000
2021: $30,000
3249  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. Contemplating Isolating Russia from SWIFT Banking System on: December 24, 2021, 04:29:52 PM
I've just looked through poll results in Ukraine, and almost half a population (it's a representative sociological poll) believes that the Russian military threat is very real.
I'd also say that the most notable acts of aggression of Russia are probably taking Crimea and supporting the military intervention in the Eastern part of the country, rather than cyberattacks, but ok.
Restricting SWIFT is probably the best economic sanction there can be because Russia depends quite heavily on it, and this will not play well with many influential people as well as the Russian middle-class people, so to speak. If they do invade, I think they'll try to move to an alternative system, and since Russia's big on some products for export, other countries will probably play along and adopt that system for deals with Russia specifically. Also, isn't SWIFT only for international transfers, so all payments inside the country won't be affected? So, while it's big in terms of sanctions, it's probably not devastating for Russia.
As for the war threat, I really hope it wears off or, if it doesn't, that the West won't make the same mistake they made with Hitler, assuming he'd just stop after annexing this or that territory.
3250  Economy / Economics / Re: Why we need bitcoin... on: December 24, 2021, 03:33:21 PM
I agree with the general sentiment that overprinting isn't new and that is can lead to hyperinflation, but there's a big difference between countries that suffered from it and the USA. The difference, of course, is not in the type of action, but it's in the trust (both within the country and internationally) towards a currency. With the US being a #1 economy, the USD is in very high demand and is valued as an example of stability and reliability. And while dollar lost a lot of value over decades, the majority is okay with this rate of inflation, so unless something changes drastically, it's probably not going to be a problem. I don't think the US can get away with ANY rate of overprinting money, but it can afford more than probably any other country.
3251  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Viable Altcoin for the moment on: December 24, 2021, 03:10:52 PM
It seems that the most popular recommendations are Ethereum and Binance Coin. Both are, of course, very solid, and they don't accidentally have such a high market capitalization. Ethereum is very stably #2 after Bitcoin, and I don't think this will change. As for Binance coin, given the popularity of the crypto exchange, I'm sure it'll stay high as well. However, I'm a bit unsure about Ethereum at the moment due to its plans of transitioning to PoS soon. I think it would be better to see how it goes and make decisions then. After all, there was a time long ago when Ethereum split via a hard fork, and Ethereum Classic, while still an impressive #41 by market cap, is nowhere near Ethereum, and who knows how things will go this time. Someone also recommended DOT, and I wanted to support that. I believe it's one of the most promising altcoins out there because it has a good and important project, caught a lot of attention and is made by a co-founder of Ethereum.
3252  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple makes a $1 price bull set for 2022 on: December 23, 2021, 04:44:33 PM
As the entire market is in the recovery mode but a slow stage, Ripple one of the most active coins in the last couple of weeks back has made it to All-time high of $1, coin telegraph made the revelation on the news platform this afternoon.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-flatlines-as-xrp-hits-1-with-massive-altcoin-move-set-for-2022
$1 is well below XRP's all-time high point, to be honest. Firstly, the price reached $1.84 in April 2021, and as for the ATH,  it was $3.40 in January 2018. This is something that can be easily verified (see here, for example), so I'm not sure why you wrote it. So compared to Bitcoin, which had the ATH of $20k in 2018 and currently seats at $49k, XRP is still doing way worse. It's important to make such comparisons and focus on the bigger picture rather than what's going on short-term if you're interested in long-term investments.
3253  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC as "every day" spending currency vs. 10 min Block Confirmation/Mining time on: December 23, 2021, 04:18:35 PM
I agree with jackg's point that only cash is spent immediately. So it's possible to create workarounds to make sure that Bitcoin works as a form of money, but it won't be merely Bitcoin or will involve third parties facilitating the operations. They're doing it in El Salvador, and it's a living proof that it's possible if there's enough interest in it. Also, I think that for big online purchases Bitcoin could be used directly (sending some BTC from customer's address to the address of the owner of the shop) because the fees wouldn't matter if the sum's high enough, and also because when you're buying something online, it's often not crucial for the transaction to be finalized fast.
3254  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When and how did you discover Bitcoin? on: December 23, 2021, 03:47:52 PM
I don't remember the specific dates, but I think it was early 2014, and I learned about it from a friend whose attention to Bitcoin was caught by mass media popularizing the event of FBI closing Silk Road. Neither me nor my friend heard of darknet before, and we had no idea there was a sort of money that was used there. So my initial stance was wary, I would say. I thought of Bitcoin as a form of money, but the kind of form that's largely used for illegal activities. Then I slowly became warmer to it, seeing that many people here on Bitcointalk were interested in Bitcoin, and yet weren't criminals. So by 2015 I thought of Bitcoin more as of a revolutionary form of money that happens to be used by criminals, but didn't hold it against Bitcoin itself.
3255  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: COPA just won its first hearing against Craig on: December 23, 2021, 03:29:42 PM
Falsifying emails sounds so low, and yet Craig clearly gave it a shot to prove that he is Satoshi. I hope the trial will establish that it was a forgery and, hopefully, Craig will have to take responsibility for this crime. Then again, I kinda thought that he already lost some trials before and was asked to provide half of the money to Kleiman's family, and that's how the whole Tulip Trust fantasy came to be. So, clearly, trials can take a long time, and then there can be new trials if new evidence is put forward, and it's also possible to appeal the decision... So I'm not particularly hopeful about this news, but at least it's something in the right direction.
3256  Economy / Economics / Re: NFT and art theft on: December 22, 2021, 06:01:24 PM
I was wary of NFTs in the first place because I think they're way overrated and a bit ridiculous, but I thought they were indeed a useful tool for creators to get support by making their own art into NFTs. Somehow, I didn't think about the possibility of others stealing creator's art and selling NFTs... It's a very good case against this whole technology because it shows that not only it fails to protect copyright, it actually helps make money on one's art in a completely new way, and even suggests that someone else owns something.
3257  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io 🏈 Week #16 Thursday Night Football Giveaway 🏈 (12/23/21) on: December 22, 2021, 04:40:15 PM
1) Who will receive the ball first?  49ers
2) Will the 49ers cover the -3.5 point spread?  Yes
3) Game total 44.5?  Over
4) Highest scoring Quarter?  4th
5) 49ers total points?  Even
6) Titans total points?  Odd
7) Jimmy Garoppolo to throw for 250 yards?  Under
8 )Ryan Tannehill to throw for 220 yards?  Under
9) Deebo Samuel to score a TD?  No   
10) Derrick Henry to score a TD?  No

Final Score prediction  24-21 49ers
3258  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: No..China Does NOT Have 0% of the Hashrate on: December 22, 2021, 04:25:09 PM
I remember doubting the Cambridge data about Chinese miners because they looked basically at people who mine openly, and there was always a possibility that they didn't capture those who were trying to hide their mining farms. 109,000 addresses sounds very significant, compared to zero, but does it allow getting accurate hashrate estimates? How accurate is the 20% estimate, and is it possible to confirm or disprove it? So for me, nothing changes. China used to be the center of mining activities. I don't believe it's still playing such a crucial part. But I also never thought all mining stopped in China, so I'm not surprised that there's some underground activity.
3259  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin as a "Global Unit of Account"? on: December 22, 2021, 03:59:53 PM
Have your ever imagined a world where Bitcoin is the predominant currency for mainstream payments? A world where Fiat no longer exists as people rely on Bitcoin as a global unit of account. That means, people will no longer value things based on Fiat, but rather Bitcoin itself. You would pay for things directly on Bitcoin (for instance 0.000025 BTC for a cup of coffee) without the need to worry about its current exchange rate (or price) relative to Fiat. If that happens, then Bitcoin will "stabilize" effectively proving its use as digital cash. With a country like El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, we may be one step closer to "hyperbitcoinization".

Do you think it's possible Bitcoin will become a "global unit of account" in the future? If not, why? What would a world without Fiat really look like? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thank you. Smiley
I think it's possible only with second-layer solutions. The blockchain cannot handle the amount of transactions that would occur. Also, given the volatility of Bitcoin, I think it would still be useful to set prices in something different (at least, for internal pricing purposes), and then update the actual price in BTC in real time (or every few hours). Using Bitcoin as money won't automatically make the coin more stable. Volatility might just be seen differently. Say, one day you spend 0,0001 BTC on a cup of coffee, and in a few days you can afford to buy three cups for 0,0002. That's how you'd know that the value has changed, and what USD currently does is simply gives a useful reference point, but it doesn't even have to be in fiat.
3260  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto.com Predicts 1 Billion Global Crypto Users in 2022! on: December 22, 2021, 03:12:36 PM
This sounds like a very generous estimate, but even so it's merely around 4% of the population at best. And I'm sure it accounts for everyone who has some sort of cryptos, not merely for those who actually do anything with their cryptos from time to time. Even if the number of users triples within one year, which I doubt, it'll be less than 15% of the population, which is far from true global adoption. But I won't argue that in a matter of years the situation can change drastically, and cryptos will become as used as smartphones. That being said, people use smartphones many hours per day, whereas I'm not sure about all these crypto users. What also matters is how people use cryptos. If it's crypto trading, I'm not sure it's a big accomplishment.
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