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3281  Local / Polski / Re: Bitcoin czycha na nasze dzieci!!!1oneone on: February 27, 2020, 08:11:16 AM
pozytywnym, nawet w obliczu fiaska czyli utraty skarbony. Aspekt dydaktyczny zdecydowanie jest. Połączyć go tylko z odrobiną dobrej woli, takich gigantów rynku gier jak np redzi czy gog i długofalowa adopcja zapewniona.
 

https://www.bitrefill.com/steam-wallet-codes/?hl=en - jedna ze stron. Oferuje zakupy gift-cardów steam za bitcoiny. Czyli jako świdomy rodzić możesz już płacic dziecku w bitcoinach a jak uzna, że pora na nową grę, to zamienia bitcoiny na gry w paru prostych krokach. Oczywiście płatności w btc bezpośrednio na steamie/gogu znacznie przyspieszyłyby adopcję krypto u dzieci, jednak to rodzic zawsze będzie tym, kto to dziecko zasila w środek płatniczy i który edykuje jak z niego korzystać. Jeśli rodzic da dziecku 100zł to dziecko nie kupi gry za bitcoiny nawet jeśli tą opcję będzie wspierał serwis.
3282  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 26, 2020, 10:48:15 AM
The prayers were answered.

Core team founds are vested - 1/3 for 3 years, 1/3 for 5 years
Early investors funds are vested 1/3 for 1 year, 1/3 for 2 years
3 000 000 coins are reserved for 2020 funding
8 320 000 coins are reserved for 2021-2022 funding

Quote
The initially planned milestone for Idena in 2020 was the coin listing in Q3 2020 coupled with the mainnet announcement. However, in February 2020 the DNA coin was listed by qTrade, a U.S.-based digital asset exchange, at the initiative of the exchange without a listing fee.
Effectively, since then Idena runs a mainnet: No network swaps or changes of the state of balances could now be executed without consequences for the community.

So i guess we are no longer in testnet.

Read more about this big anoouncement and community report here:
https://medium.com/idena/idena-community-report-current-state-and-next-steps-dce97a0e3034
3283  Local / Alternatywne kryptowaluty / Re: Polish Hyde Park - altcoiny & tokeny on: February 26, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
Brzmi ciekawie ... takie POS połączone z POW. Ciekawe jak rozwiązali zarobki dla nodów. Czy nie lepiej będzie otworzyć 10 nodów po 370 eth na vpsach zamiast uruchomiania kopalni przy 3700 ETH. Poza tym w świecie pieniądza teoretyczne połączenie POS i POW zakończy się tym, że jakaś firma uruchomi kopalnię na xxx terahasy i będzie sprzedawała udziały w mocy obliczeniowej dla hodlerów ETH, co w ostateczności będzie POS z dodatkowa opłatą dla serwera.
Wydaje mi się, że lepszym rozwiązaniem mogłoby zdanie się na wolny rynek. Czyli niewymuszanie otwierania kopalni od inwestora ani inwestycji w eth od speca od sprzętu. Zwłaszcza, że wszyscy wiemy jak różne potrafią być ceny prądu. W jednym kraju opłaca się kopać w innym już nie.

Mam na myśli takie rozwiązanie, że np. 50% wagi sieci siedzi w potwierdzeniach POW a 50% w POS. Każdy wybiera sam jak woli kopać ETH. A rynek (dążenie poszczególnych podmiotów do maksymalizacji zysków z inwestycji) samo w naturalny sposób wywoła równe obciążenie obu "nóg" sieci.
3284  Local / Polski / Re: Signature campaing - regularnie płatne pewniaki on: February 26, 2020, 08:44:00 AM
Została ostatnia godzina na zgłoszenia do blender.io do jednotygodniowej kampani. Zostały same miejsca hero-legendary
Manager: Hhampuz
Nazwa kampanii: blender.io
Jakie rangi: 10x senior - 10x her-Legendary
Ile do zarobienia/tydzień / ilość postów: 40$/week dla senior. 45$/week dla hero-Legendary; 15 postów na tydzień.
Dodatkowe informacje: lokale się nie liczą


Dodatkowo wolf.bet smienił status na OPEN:

Manager: Zwei
Nazwa kampanii: [OPEN] WOLF.BET Signature Campaign - Hero/Legendary - Up to 0.01BTC/week!
Ile do zarobienia/tydzień / ilość postów:  Minimum 15 & Maximum 50 postów/tydzień Legendary = 0.0002 BTC/post (0.01BTC/week) & Hero Member = 0.00015 BTC/post (0.0075BTC/week)
Jakie rangi: Hero/Legendary Members
Dodatkowe informacje: 10 postow tygodniowo musi znajdowac sie w sekcji gambling, posty w lokalnych sekcjach sie nie liczya

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167738.0
3285  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 25, 2020, 10:56:45 AM
@Janusz

Really?

Yes. I have 5 min now so here is quick response. I'll expand it soon.

Now I can be a node and I mine for 9 days but only 20%

Would you rather mine 20% now with 95% chance of getting another 60% after month in a network with 500 humans or 100% in a network with 500 humans and 4500 bots (10% of what you could mine without bots)? We are talking about safety and network stability here. And you are crying because of few newbies that will bounce from entry barrier. To mine bitcoin you have to buy 3000$ ant miner - and  still may not profit due to high electricity cost in some countries - isn't it bigger entry barrier than 3x 30 min for validation?

Besides that AT ANY MOMENT, the person that invited me can terminate my identity. Fantastic?!
what for? If i invite someone i want him to validate 3 times because i get 1x for first invitation 3x for second and 6x for third. If i kill someone after 2 validations i'm refusing last (the biggest) reward that is equal to 60% of total reward. Person that i've invited 2 epoch ago minted total of 778 coins. If i'll kill him now (just after update) he will lose 622 coins ... you know how much will I lose by doing that? 640 ! I'm loosing more because he did not validate third time than he is loosing because i killed his identity.


And i'm speaking from perspecive of 20 epoch old accound and 1 epoch old account that i've just created for my wife.
3286  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 25, 2020, 07:37:00 AM
May I know which part of the upcoming update you love the most? So far I have only hate for it after reading the news.

But...still testnet

Few weeks ago i was describing on telegram possible abuse in which 1 person begs for as many invitation as it is possible and than go random with answers validating 50% accounts and mining with them for whole week. I don't know if they was reading this or came up to this by themselves (most probably the second one) but this update is made to prevent this type of attack. I love every part.

"1-Short session extension (6 flips with 60% to succeed) "
this will decrees number of validated accounts by attacker by 20% and also will help real users. Validation in most cases looks like that. ~100 sec for 5 flips = 4 flips in 50 sec and than 50 sec on 1 dumb flip than i try to solve and in the end I go random and reach 100% because last flip did not reach consensus. 1 extra flip will not be a problem in terms of time and will only help to prove that you are human.

"2- Human status with the stake protection for aged identities"

Finally people will stop killing their identities in fear of getting 5 shitty flips.
#2 is ok, but it takes too much time to become a human, in future it could take years in case of bad luck. Doesn't seem sustainable.

4 epochs. That's all. 32 days currently and maximum of 12 month with 767137+ nodes. I don't think its too much for highest possible rank that you can achieve.

"3. Lottery-based rewards for non-spent invitations to prevent sporadic invitations"

This will make abuser very hard to collect dozens of invitations since part of members will decide to collect 30% of reward instead of 0% if invited person will fail validation. They will simply take 30% or invite trusted person.

"4. Discrimination of identities with the Newbie status"
This will make abuser loose financial motivation since he will be able to collect only 20% of minted coins from newbies accounts. Simply he will have to collect 13 invitations during 1 epoch to mine as fast as 1 honest miner (even more (like 25) if you take into consideration that hones miner will get more coins from creating flips, inviting, and validating older account - validation reward depends on account age) .

#4 is bad imho, because there is significant chance to fail at least one validation out of 4 needed to become verified. It demotivates from joining the network.
It is not "significant chance". I think that 90-95% of real humans that take IDENA serious validates 3 times in a row. My stats - 87.5:91 - i made 3.5 flips wrong during 20 epochs. Newbie can do 4.5 flips wrong during 3 epochs and still succeed.

5. Additional flips submission

We need those flips to cover short session extension. "will be allowed" is key here. Sometimes i have shitty words and its really hard for me to create flip that is easy for community, hard for AI. I'll do 3 flips that epoch. If i'll get good words I'll create 5. This will boost quality of flips. More flips by members with human status will boost quality too.

6. More invitations for Humans and less for Verified

Also protects against attacker and improve quality of new members.


And what part are you hating the most? there is nothing to hate if you don't want to scam others.
3287  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 24, 2020, 07:24:29 PM
Hard fork is coming. Awesome changes made to prevent against bot attack. Great work AndrewIdena.

https://medium.com/@idena.network/idena-security-model-update-7d624ef3298f
3288  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 24, 2020, 08:07:28 AM
And you find it normal that tens of users are humilating on the telegram channel for an invite to a free blockchain? Those who received the invites had to do the same? As I remember when I first asked I received 10 PM's in seconds; now everyone got greedy.

IT'S GOD DAMN FUCKING FREE!


It's not about being greedy. During epoch 15-25 there was more invitations than people willing to take them. Now it's opposite of that and it accelerated after exchange listing. Now i can choose between 10 people willing to join network. What should i do? Pick random guy that will waste my invitation? Speak with him for hours to check if he is "find the users you believe they are worthy without restricting them to your needs"? I simply present them my rules and if they agree i send them code. During validation day i PM them with:

-Remember about today validation please. If you need anything just ask.
-I'm fine

If you call this
"humilating on the telegram channel for an invite to a free blockchain? Those who received the invites had to do the same?" than we will not reach an agreement.

And yes... it is an exchange ... real exchange without fake volume, transaction mining and other scam things. It requires no KYC (you need to fill form with basic data but without ID scans) for up to 2000$ daily withdrawal. Price is also fair. Full validation with complet of 3 invitations rewards is equal to 100$ in DNA.

I am waiting for the next 2 epochs, both will be during weekdays, I am curious how many people will succeed to go through with it, for sure even old users will terminate their stake not to lose it.

Yes. I'm also interrested in next validation resoults that will happen in monday.
3289  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 24, 2020, 07:33:25 AM
That is one bad score mate.
We sure need to set some basic community rules regarding Invitations, to avoid such things.

If someone will validate once i'll get ~100DNA, for second validation 300DNA, for third 600DNA (currently). That's why if someone will validate twice I still consider this as partly wasted invitation because I get only 40% coins that i could get.
In fact only 2 members that i've invited validated 3 times. I name 4 in my previous post because rest 2 are from times where you get full reward after first validation (before epoch 27).

I think that my rules are must have if you take IDENA serious and want to have as much successful invitation as it is possible. They are also fair for invited person.


If I were the one that initially invited you I would terminate your identity right away.
Its impossible after third validation. I'm 20 epoch old.

You can't just force people to be active, invitations should be given as good will for users to get to know better the network even if it is just a test net.

Right now you are looking for more than what it is normal from a user just because you don't want to lose some free benefits.

Terrible.

You should be on telegram during validation day to see how valuable and rare invitations are currently. Dozens of people were begging for invitation. There is really lack of them and on the other hand there are being wasted by morons. I do not force anyone to take invitation from me. They can go on telegram and do some begg-spam.

My rules are good for network and if you are not in front of computer 30 min before validation you will most likely miss it, because you have to update your node, check if its synchronized, simply check if everything is right.

Right now you are looking for more than what it is normal from a user just because you don't want to lose some free benefits.

Terrible.
If someone is missing second or third validation he is simply wasting invitation because he needs to collect another one to re-join network. Benefits are set that way by devs to promote behaviour that is good for network. It is good for network that 1 invitation = 1 validated member not 5 invitations=1 validated member + 4 morons that wasted invitation.
3290  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there any proof fractional reserve banking goes on to in the UK or globally on: February 23, 2020, 07:14:58 PM
You can read my thread where i try to explain that even a bitcoin is not creation resistant:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5094088.msg49096584#msg49096584

And yes. It's happening globally in every bank. In Poland (country where i leave) minimal reserves are equal to 3.5% !  - https://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/o_nbp/informacje/polityka_pieniezna.html (its NBP official website NBP -
National Bank of Poland)

Quote
Wysokość stopy rezerwy obowiązkowej ustala Rada Polityki Pieniężnej. Od 31 grudnia 2010 r. stopa rezerwy obowiązkowej wynosi 3,5 proc.

translation:
Quote
The required reserve rate is set by the Monetary Policy Council. From December 31, 2010, the required reserve ratio is 3.5 percent.

Give me some time and I'll find official UK National Bank statemnet about mandatory reserves.


US:

Quote
A depository institution's reserve requirements vary by the dollar amount of NTAs held by customers of that institution. Effective 18 January 2018, institutions with net transactions accounts:

Of less than $16 million have no minimum reserve requirement;
Between $16 million and $122.3 million must have a liquidity ratio of 3% of NTAs;
Exceeding $122.3 million must have a liquidity ratio of 10% of NTAs.[8]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement#United_States


UK:

Quote
United Kingdom
In the UK the term clearing banks is sometimes used, meaning banks that have direct access to the clearing system. However, for the purposes of clarity, the term commercial banks will be used for the remainder of this section.

The Bank of England, which is the central bank for the entire United Kingdom, previously held to a voluntary reserve ratio system, with no minimum reserve requirement set. In theory this meant that commercial banks could retain zero reserves. The average cash reserve ratio across the entire United Kingdom banking system, though, was higher during that period, at about 0.15% as of 1999.[12]

From 1971 to 1980, the commercial banks all agreed to a reserve ratio of 1.5%. In 1981 this requirement was abolished.[12]

From 1981 to 2009, each commercial bank set out its own monthly voluntary reserve target in a contract with the Bank of England. Both shortfalls and excesses of reserves relative to the commercial bank's own target over an averaging period of one day[12] would result in a charge, incentivising the commercial bank to stay near its target, a system known as reserves averaging.

Upon the parallel introduction of quantitative easing and interest on excess reserves in 2009, banks were no longer required to set out a target, and so were no longer penalised for holding excess reserves; indeed, they were proportionally compensated for holding all their reserves at the Bank Rate (the Bank of England now uses the same interest rate for its bank rate, its deposit rate and its interest rate target).[13] In the absence of an agreed target, the concept of excess reserves does not really apply to the Bank of England any longer, so it is technically incorrect to call its new policy "interest on excess reserves".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement#United_Kingdom

List of 40+ countries and minimal reserve requirement:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement#Other_countries_and_districts
3291  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 23, 2020, 03:58:53 PM
Hello good people of Idena supporters.  Smiley

Please someone give me an invite. I promise I will do the flips right (and on time) and get validated.
Hello
Pm me your telegram address. I can send you invitation but i have few extra requirements:

1- i want to have contact with you during validation day
2- If you will remain offline 1h before validation I'll terminate your invitation to invite another person
3- rule no.2 relates also to your second and third validation

I decided to go with that because out of 17 invitations that i've sent only 4 was not wasted (or partly wasted - f.e. missed second or third validation).
3292  Local / Alternatywne kryptowaluty / Re: pi network-- kryptowaluta wydoywana na telefonie komorkowym on: February 22, 2020, 09:32:22 AM
Czyli jak dobrze rozumiem, jak zacznę kopać walutę na swoim telefonie nie zapraszając znajomych do sieci, to prędzej czy później sieć uzna mnie za bota i pozbawi środków (bo nie poręczy za mnie grupa użytkowników). W dodatku konieczność przejścia KYC w celu skorzystania ze środków... Google capcha by odsiać boty? A co z phone farm - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THJfNJk08ds . 1 osoba spokojnie obskoczy w ciągu dnia 1 000 telefonów i wykona 1 000 google capcha jak będzie trzeba. Mam rozumieć, że taka farma może teraz spokojnie kopać PI a w przyszłości może uda się ich pozbawić środków.

Proponuję lepszą alternatywę bazującą na podobnych założeniach (1 człowiek 1 głos zamiast 1$ 1 głos (POS) albo 1cpu 1 głos (POW)) - IDENA
1- zero KYC by móc korzystać ze środków
2- od 20 dni jest listowana na giełdzie (6 centów)
3- założenia sieci wydają mi się lepsze a sieć już działa (Pi pozwala botom kopać, bo obecnie nie jest w stanie ich odsiać a w przyszłosci pozbawi ich środków jak uda się stworzyć odpowiedni algorytm (który być może pozbawi też środków części uczciwych górników) - trochę mało odporne rozwiązanie na ataki moim zdaniem)

btw. Może poświeć kilka minut i pokasuj "Read less" "Read more" jak już kopiujesz artykuł w całości z https://www.minepi.cloud/faq_pl.html bez podawania źródła (plagiat o ile nie masz zgody twórców) tylko po to, by dodać swój ref-link co jest wbrew regulaminowi - skasuj linki i daj adnotację, że zainteresowanych proszisz o PM-inaczej admin skasuje cały post.

Jesteś w tej sieci dłużej. Coś źle rozumiem, czy faktycznie wygląda to mało solidnie?
3293  Local / Polski / Re: Adres publiczny po brute force. Czy jest bezpieczny? on: February 22, 2020, 07:55:04 AM
Zalezy jak został on wygenerowany. Jesli przez jakąś stronę/serwis który to zrobił za ciebie i jedynie wysłał ci adres publiczny i prywatny to odradzam. Jeśli natomiast zrobiłeś to sam, poprawnie to tak...jest w 100% bezpieczny.

Tutaj opisywałem jak to zrobić bezpiecznie.

Dodatkowo:
Spersonalizowane adresy tworzą również zaufani członkowie forum w tym temacie. Twój klucz prywatny pozostaje bezpieczny ponieważ @LoyceV i  @DarkStar_ używają technologii split key. W skrócie generują część klucza prywatnego przy użyciu klucza publicznego udostępnionego przez ciebie (który uzyskujesz przy pomocy Vanity Wallet https://www.bitaddress.org/.) Po otrzymaniu od nich klucza prywatnego łączycie go ze swoim kluczem prywatnym i uzyskujecie kompletny klucz.

Tą opcję przedstawił BitCryptex
3294  Local / Polski / Re: Signature campaing - regularnie płatne pewniaki on: February 22, 2020, 07:50:31 AM
1 miejsce w kampani hhampuza - playbetr:
Manager: Hhampuz
Nazwa kampanii: PlayBetr Signature Campaign
Ile do zarobienia/tydzień / ilość postów:  min 25 postów/tydzień
Jakie rangi: 1x Hero/Legendary - $50/tydzień.
Dodatkowe informacje: 2$ za post to uczciwa stawka. Min 5 postów w gambling.
3295  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🔥🎲Luckydice.com 🎲🔥 - ⭐ 100,000 USD Jackpot ⭐ Cashback ⭐ Faucet ⭐ Unique Game ⭐️ on: February 21, 2020, 07:36:11 AM
Hey guys, sorry for delay, we completely redesigning Fairness and How to Play sections with code examples, so it takes longer. Should be ready in few days.

I'm still waiting for update of fairness section with data about bonus games (pinko etc). Most often "few days" means less than 10  Smiley

Actually, the fewer bets you make the closer you are to reach the expected distribution.

Therefore its best to bet big and infrequently, rather than small and often.

IMO anyway.

Agree. The more bets you do the closer you get to statistic distribution. Because of statistic advantage that casino has it becomes similar to transfer your money directly to casino bank account without playing.
3296  Local / Alternatywne kryptowaluty / Re: Idena on: February 20, 2020, 07:42:54 PM
Spróbuje jeszcze raz z ta walidacją, może tym razem się uda. A tak poza tym na discordzie ogłosili  bounty na tłumaczenie @TytanowyJanusz.

Zgłosiłem się jak jeszcze nie był dostępny polski kanał do podawania stawek. Widać, że admin po moim zgłoszeniu go otworzył. Dzięki za informację, bo zupełnie o tym zapomniałem. Przeniosłem swoją ofertę do odpowiedniego kanału i może się uda.

Spróbuj spróbuj. Powiem ci, że node pracuje teraz bardzo stabilnie. Od miesiąca nie wywaliło mi go ani razu... wcześniej zdarzało się parę razy dziennie.
3297  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 18, 2020, 12:55:56 PM
Ok, but in my example, if I will bet 300 DNA they can say the threshold was 295 DNA, sorry you are not selected.

I mean they can always say a lower amount just because they can using this method.

Why to make the bounty like this when you can make it transparent and let users know how much they will get for their work. Take it or leave it style.

But what's the point of that?
1- wasted week
2- no translated content

You are not working unless you are selected. So there is no profit for them in such "strategy". All you are supposed to do is to go to discord and post the lowest amount of DNA that is acceptable for you for this translation.

They are running this to get translated content not to waste everyone's week. In 23/02/20 they will close bets and see what's the lowest offer. If your offer would be the lowest and lower than their threshold you will be selected. I don't see a point to cheat in a way you said. If your offer will be higher than you won't be selected and won't start translating - you will waste 30 seconds of your time (time to post an offer on discord)

And again:
Every Public procurement (not sure if I translated it into english correct) are arranged like that (at least in my country) with once exception - you don't know any competitors' offers
You never know how much money they have for job you are offering to do. And sometimes it is weeks of counting (f.e. 100M $ bridge or road)
3298  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 18, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
There is a bounty, anounced today for the translations od Idena app... Well that's great way to spend coins... Bravo for the team...

"There is an undisclosed threshold for this work. If the lowest offers exceed it, the auction winners will not be chosen. Otherwise the winners will be announced on February 24, 2020."

Why is this so complicated..

If I understand if good, if I ask for example 2000 DNA for translation, and the team decided to offer 1850 DNA I wont get selected?

How do I know what the team have decided in the first place? I must trust you or is registered on the blockchain?

There is an auction on discord. If you will post lowest bet and it still be higher then their threshold for this work they will cancel it. That's how it work in real life too. Every Public procurement (not sure if I translated it into english correct) are arranged like that (at least in my country) with once exception - you don't know any competitors' offers
3299  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Idena is the first Proof-of-Person Blockchain on: February 18, 2020, 12:28:30 PM
There is a bounty, anounced today for the translations od Idena app... Well that's great way to spend coins... Bravo for the team...

Especially if, based on current bets and my estimations of how it could evolve, they will get 10 translations for 10 000 DNA -> ~400$. Thats well spended 400$ and drop in the ocean of what's left in their pockets. I'm interrested of how much will they achive with those coins.
3300  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: February 17, 2020, 11:28:28 AM
Koleś przekłada całą korektę z 2014 roku na koniec odbicia z połowy 2019 roku w korekcie rozpoczętej w 2017 roku - bez sensu z setek powodów.

Do tego dokłada pierdyliard wskaźników, z których nic nie wynika tylko po to, by uzasadnić swoją subiektywną ocenę sytuacji-jak każdy miłośnik analizy technicznej tylko po to, by potem powiedzieć - "wiedziałem ... to dzięki mojej super analizie" albo "cóż analiza techniczna raz działa raz nie działa" a prawda jest taka, że przy tylu kreskach praktycznie niemożliwe jest by wykres któreś z nich nie przeciął, od któreś się nie odbił, do któreś nie przykleił na pewien okres.

Według mnie przebicie 9100 może być krótko/średnio-terminowo groźne, chyba że nastąpi szybka negacja tego ruchu i odbicie. Tyle. Predykcje na rok do przodu na podstawie zachowań historycznych na setki razy mniejszym wolumenie na zupełnie innym rynku traktuje jak wróżenie z fusów zwłaszcza, że prognoza opiewa na -70%.

Takich wykresów przecież powstaje tysiące, to że jeden się wstrzeli w przeszłe wydarzenia nic nie znaczy Wink

Zgadzam się. Dodam, że nie widzę żadnych powodów ekonomicznych dla których wykres miałby tak się zachować w przyszłości poza: "tak by wyglądało najładniej na wykresie logarytmicznym"  ... a cenę tworzy popyt i podaż, a ten ma gdzieś najładniej narysowany wykres. Oczywiście cena może zachować się w ten sposób ale nie dlatego, że jakaś magiczna ręka go trzyma, a przez przypadek. Tak samo jak przez przypadek wygrałem konkurs adamvp trafiając z dokładnością 300$ w cenę bitcoina na 3 miesiące do przodu.

Moim zdaniem cenę na wykresie tworzy zbyt wiele aspektów by można było ostatnie 10 lat ubrać w jakieś ciuszki i dobrać najbardziej pasującą czapkę do zestawu (zwłaszcza na bitcoinie... rynku, który 10 lat temu nie istniał). Nie mam dokładnych danych, ale na pęknięciu pompy z początków 2014 wolumen na bitcoinie według CMC wynosił  20-70 mln $. Podczas pompowania (100$-1000$) było to pewnie ~10 mln $. Na poprzedniej pompie (2011) było to pewnie 1 mln $. Przed nią pewnie ~10 000$. I teraz według mnie branie pod uwagę wykresu z wolumenem od 10 000$ - 10 mln $ i na tego podstawie snucie predykcji dla rynku o wolumenie kilku mld$ (obecnie 22mld$ według CMC ale wiadomo, że to w większości fake) i przewidywać szczyt kolejnej bańki, któremu pewnie towarzyszyć będzie wolumen rzędu 1 biliona $ jest absurdalne.
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