Seems an extreme way to put it that ATH would be a recovery and anything less is something negative.    This whole price range is well above previous trading for BTC over many years so it remains positive but just not at its highs.   Right now price is trending positively though nominally sideways its doing well so long its above the weekly average which it is.   Todays postive marker would be something 38.5k, seems like we would close the week out here despite being in the midst of a disruptive war in Europe.

We have put in a higher low for BTC this week, if this should hold to the closing of the weekly candle then we should be more bullish from it.   Despite the conflict BTC continues to be used and of use to all participants outside of political and nationalistic control.
   I see that we can be quite bullish so to answer OP 30k could be a decent marker for the bottom.  There is still the wider question of if 20k occurs imo, extremes tend to magnetic in some way if only by their fear and volume as turning points.


Whats important now to mark the lows off in the rear view mirror would be that we we discontinue the recent decline from 45k.    The wider range I've tried to crop this graph to is 43k to 33k, the ideal to say this is over and the low is now established and past is by breaking that range.  Our recent attempt failed and you can see the weekly bars were pins that resolved downwards.   The pin or candle for this week is the opposite direction, it should be noted positively imo.

This idea of poor people is the not the best for business to consider, if you have a product to increase efficency of the customer in some way you will profit and customers will find a way to afford your item.  A farmer can be a pauper in the wrong harvest or the richest man in town in high demand.   Think of it in terms of revenue, anyone who wants to truly have a successful product must engage an entire country, then you have all sorts of benefits from that popularity.
   What tends to happen in a modern economy is the product is first modelled to sell high premium to early adopters and later on achieves scales of economy benefits from mass production and efficiency makes the product available to all.   The ironic thing is the largest profits come from the most common sales to quite modest budgets in the majority of the population.

VP always were kings on mirage but Im remembering the wrong team of course    Shame about ancient, I figure thats just a newer map that perhaps mean upset to the natural order we might see on the older maps, today VP couldn't make that true.  
  Im seeing that Gambit result from the top team and wondering if Navi might also falter vs G2 now.  I think 3 maps is more then fair as a bet and maybe G2 could take this, Navi are undoubtedly hurt by a constant stream of bad news.
  Heroic and Faze both have good match history now, Faze only losing to Navi over 3 maps and Heroic beating top teams.   Should be a good struggle, I wont pick a winner just try 3 maps.

Ironic thing is when the BTC price recovers it can force pressure onto the price of something like FUN in that ratio effect.  In dollar terms it might be level still, it does appear nearterm to be rising in dollar terms.   That alone might bring sellers and new supply to FUN token.    Theres also the levelling off from people already owning enough FUN to get premium benefits, so that boost it would have from buyers there does not continue linearly.  I do think the site will have new users and growth so long as BTC itself does but thats what I'm seeing, a slowing of demand and now it has to stabilize and decide its longer term price level; theres a speculative flush out quite normal it has to mature some. 

Bull run can occur on multiple time frames.  In 2017 we had many set backs, it took alot to recognize it was bullish the whole year  despite the gains occurring repeatedly it also sold off quite harshly in that year also.
   Right now I dont think we are over with the bullish phrase, perhaps because I try to remember the price action from 2017 I doubt less that BTC must fall now after losing its upper price range.   We are above the weekly and could move past the monthly to challenge 50 day average, to keep that in contention makes me quite bullish for now.   Overall I think 2022 is a working year not an easy gain but imo its still positive.

Decent recovery yesterday alongside a few other asset types, large amount of volume with the positive price action.  Now current highs are just under a weekly average, Im optimistic it can gain further even if just going sideways here.  Eventually should register above 40k, prospects for this just rely on digestion of past gains and a hold at these prices I think

38k to 37k at lowest would be the ideal to see till next week.  It could be alot more positive then that before then but just holding here seems a place to remain optimistic.
   On a daily closing bar basis we did maintain above the lowest range of prices for this year.  The intraday low was higher then prior low, some positives to note.

It does make sense, Russia is in Europe the land mass that is and so is this war.    You have Russia attempt to supply 60% of Germanys energy needs then some how we end up here where no such deal can take place and instead an invasion occurs.    Europe relies on Ukraine indirectly for its energy consumption.    I can see why people say it doesn't matter but the implication of Russia reassuming the terrority of USSR makes it a serious threat  to world peace.
   That causes oil to rise which causes economies to slow in its greater cost, its greater pressure on BTC apparently from a higher Dollar.   Long term I agree things arent altered presuming we dont get further expansion, but each month they have progressed the scenario hence the fear meter is full right now.

Why does a slowing economy matter, monetary velocity is especially relevant to Bitcoin.  The whole idea Bitcoin started off with was in the origins of (western) QE which is effectively a giant devaluation of currency standards, excessive liquidity or fast money however you want to put it.   War is people desperately clutching onto whatever money they have, money goes to essential supplies, anything speculative will retract.    Its all relevant in a global economy, europes war is your war like it or not.

Russia allegedly sending tanks across the Belarus border and so on, all this means higher dollar and lower BTC very likely.   What is actually happening on the ground beyond the counter information war in excuse to occupy control etc.   all that nonsense who knows; for now it appears no aid to any BTC price action.
   I didnt feel any particular target for BTC, I might put a wide or long shot bet for next month basically to touch prior range top.   So thats the ATH from 2017, that kind of extreme just on the basis of if it can happen it will occur eventually just because market has to rule out a direction in some way.   I dont think thats especially reasonable as a target but in trading terms we can spike down or up, hopefully the odds would be good or at least the time factor would compensate if in this nasty situ it became obvious.   I would normally expect a bounce in a relief type of way, but war obviously should make that far less likely hence the extreme scenario goes up a rank like defcon.

BTC price is trending down below the 2 day average regularly now.  This is a fast measure and less relevant then the weekly average.   We arent near to any positive breakthrough, normally it would take some stages of recovery to properly make a positive trend so for now its yet to find a foothold and stabilize its decline into a hold.
  We made some attempt earlier to halt further losses but its failed to maintain itself and that peak itself is still lower then peak seen a couple day ago so again a negative conclusion, I assume it will take alot more to overcome momentum,

If BTC was really relying on Russia not to cause trouble, we were always going to be in this scenario.   I'd say most of the fear right now is pivotal on escalation or not, so far most of it is posturing.  Putin wont benefit from an actual war, his administration might be helped by the distraction the whole process provides as an external enemy Putin requires this so his own people dont focus on himself.

Overall its not a crash but a failure of the previous trend up, now we must decide on the lower range to pricing or to recover the higher pricing.    We are retracted to prior pricing already seen this year, better to judge price action by this then news and fears.

Biden is just one country and the point of BTC is to not rely on just one county, or government as most of the world now is centralized and politicized also.   The worth to BTC might be to have an economy distinct and resilient outside of politics and domination of government fiscal budgets.   If we dont have that we are weaker as people generally.
   He might bring laws especially taxes as government always will but this wont alter the protocol itself.  So a pullback but not an entirely unexpected long term event, we are already challenged by soviet mantra why not others too, I dont doubt it happens eventually if not now.

We have momentum downwards, below the 2 day average BTC price action has failed to venture above a simple measure which for now means we continue negatively.    It has to put that in some doubt for any optimism to appear.   Its not held a higher range, next thing to speculate is holding above prior lows.

The next Halvening is very likely in 2024 which means 2025 is on the far end of bearish expectations, cant say its wrong but I dont especially accept the reasoning for why they think BTC is challenged.  I believe dollar is more challenged and will continue to weaken.

  When people say suck they do realize the price is massively higher this year then just 18 months ago.   Its still generally ok, if we mean disappointment of no immediate gains suck then yea, its inevitable this must occur.   Some people purely hold BTC just to capture the gains then they sell, this process goes in cycles and we will do nothing for a while, maybe a year maybe two but I think 2025 is over doing it.   We will accumulate some gains before then, if nothing else ordinary currency is constantly being diluted so dollar 2025 will not resemble the current dollar.

I have a screenshot somewhere of an old faucet and it says something like 5 Bitcoins payout either daily or weekly either way it seems impossible but I think its a real screencap, it was like when they were 2 cents each I guess.
  Here Ive googled so you can be as depressed as me about missing it :p  my memory served me right, was actually 5btc.  2010 was very early though imo
Anyway Im posting to ask is there a shortcut to show the unused premium spins.  I cant find it and I clicked the x on the one that pops up normally.   Someone has it bookmarked as should I.   39.5k and above price can turn especially positive I think.

Im not sure we can count volatility as lessening over time, its not just the fault of crypto itself but obvious outside factors like politics and military movements.   Even trade disagreements can sustainably disrupt economies and so to BTC retracts under pressure.   This is fairly normal, my personal take for 2022 was revision and eventually bullish resolution so that would include the full apparent range for BTC.
   If we go from the ATH to the prior ATH that would be probably be near to the massive drawdowns seen previously, its best to believe this cant happen but in the end it is the eventual ability for BTC to endure and resolve upwards that is the positive despite the lows in between.

I never thought I would see such odds for Will Smith, he has come a long way to do so well amazing!    He was first nominated 20 years ago, he has to be a fair contender but I think those odds are over done.   I do like him and the movies he has been in but I dont know its enough this time to get over that obstacle of a first win.
  Only true way to judge is properly view the films and decide best then vs all factors involved, I would be swayed towards Javier as he has quite a pedigree.  

Also does this not equate as a disparity, long odds on the film but short for the actor.   Im more confident to bet these kind of odds when a film will take an oscar in several categories.

BTC represents capital, because its not a fractional reserve system or a central banking ledger it is worth something for you to lend your capital to companies.  Most obvious example is a casino for their bank roll against winners while longer term making a profit.   That would almost always require you to trust that company to keep your capital available.   

im not sure I would bet on 40k as a minimum.  It will be challenged, I'm watching 39.5k and I want to say this will be the bottom because that would be bullish.   However its more likely we trade far below 40k and later on we do recover this area and in that moment people should bullish then rather then hope and pray we stop here, its a freight train and wont do what we want tbh.

I got to report back that just as we seemed to be slightly more positive while above the 50 day average, failing that now is not a positive sign for any further gains appearing.   We are challenged and on the daily graph it should be quite clear to see a double top, a quite commonly observed negative sign .
    Dont expect much in Feb but possibly we calm, go sideways and appreciate during March onwards.   For now its wait and see, Im not with any negative for prospects further out especially with dollar inflation unabated but near term we cannot be said to be bullish at this moment.   Perhaps next week will reverse our course but Im not expecting it personally.