You people! I think I told you last night TO WAIT FOR ME!!!  |
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bubble shmubble, it'll be back to $900+ in a day.
+1 - it's bitcoin after all!!!  |
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OH NOOOOOOooooooo I'm out of FIAT!!!! that's happens when you buy "cheap coins" at 1100 I hope you understand that most of the times I'm trolling around here  |
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OH NOOOOOOooooooo I'm out of FIAT!!!!
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Mornin' OH SOCKS!!!! WTF YOU PEOPLE DID DURING THE NIGHT??? Damn! I missed this |
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I had not considered that Bernanke might be using BTC to absorb inflation. It is an interesting idea, although I'm not sure I follow what his thought process might be. The USD monetary base has roughly tripled; however, broad measures of the money supply have not expanded, at least not nearly as much as the monetary base, and inflation is not (so far? ...) very high. So how exactly does bitcoin fit into that? (At least, from Bernanke's point of view. Assuming he has even given it much thought.)
What is wealth? I mean litterally what is it? Imagine someone you know with a lot of money. Do you think you can read about him on the news papers? Most big-cash guys are staying low and that's for a good reason. Their "job" is to control wealth. Being bombed by inflation tools like derivatives, bailouts, stock market bubbles etc, it's rather difficult for them to control things like they used to... Bitcoin may be able to "fix" this. Imagine some of them holding a great amount of coins (this accumulation is happening as we speak). One who controls the wealth, can control the price; isn't it? I really don't know if they can make it happen. They certainly have the financial tools and resources to do so. I really don't know what to wish for; I want them to succeed or not? I guess in a future not far away from now; they will be ones of the rich (bitcoinwise) as they used to be in their previous monetary life. Besides of that; there's a strong possibility that these guys see a grave danger coming from bitcoin. This will cause the mother of all storms to its price. People who believe in it though; must be wise and keep their positions. In either case, they won't have to lose anything... the ones who came to short some cash out on the other hand... well I feel sorry for them.  |
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It's a great thing to get involved with BTC... People may panic now; but there's a strong message beside the support at lows. Have a nice morning/afternoon/evening fellas. Goodnight from Greece. |
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This is a very interesting thread, as usual for rpietila  I don't know whether this has been discussed elsewhere, but has anyone tried to estimate a value (or stated differently, a market cap) at which the US government (and/or other governments) would feel threatened by bitcoin? People like Ben Bernanke probably do not currently view bitcoin as being particularly dangerous to the dollar. But if they did, then I imagine they could and would do whatever was needed to maintain the dollar's supremacy over bitcoin. Perhaps this will be what determines the steady-state valuation of mBTC for the foreseeable future. One does exclude the other, in my opinion. Dollar/Fiat and Bitcoin can coexist since they each serve a different purpose. Nevertheless, I presume the exact opposite. That is; the BTC-Banks bond getting stronger with banks fulfilling the "escrow" side of things. Chances are they already at it (it was reported at the senate hearing). I have mentioned it previously in the troll-thread (urm... I mean wall observer ) that there's a strong possibility men like Bernanke are using BTC to absorb a part (or the whole) of the inflation around the world. If they succeed, BTC has an enormous crash and everyone stays away for about 100 years. If they fail, BTC gets its throne as the primary international coin around the globe. Win-Win situation... It's an extreme scenario; but yet one that we cannot rule out. |
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*IF* I had 10K of BTCs and I wanted to have more coins; this would be the way I'd do it. Sell a bunch all at once and buy at lows. Unfortunately, this won't be happening more than twice, since many traders would be there ready to pull the trigger. Whenever this happens there's always the strong possibility to lose some of your coins and/or fiat...
Nice going though... I like it!
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Let's see if it can make a double bottom @ $841 on Gox... Heh, that'd be a double double bottom. Yep; but also very bullish... I see strong support @ 920-930 though... Bears out of ammo. or, they're waiting for the order book to fill up Yeah; you're right! PANIC SELL YOUR COINS NOW!!!! |
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Let's see if it can make a double bottom @ $841 on Gox... Heh, that'd be a double double bottom. Yep; but also very bullish... I see strong support @ 920-930 though... Bears out of ammo. |
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Let's see if it can make a double bottom @ $841 on Gox... |
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Goodnight people. Have fun! |
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I would really really buy at any of the prices mentioned in that chart Away from the battle all are soldiers. - german proverb He's just trolling; it's becoming a habit in here |
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China/Bitstamp spread has been negative (China lower) ever since the flashcrash 12 hours ago. So the west has absorbed:
- 71% of the losses (from 1.13->0.85->1.05);
- quite a number of bitcoins sent from China.
It is not usual to have China seriously lower. Usually it's either at about even or higher.
I see the news as neutral/bullish, and this reaction quite convincing. $800 will firmly hold.
I find it a great sign that after this flash crash it rippled pretty amazing with only 4 harmonics before rising up steadily at its previous pace (actually a bit higher at the moment). Since this is my officially troll thread; may I be excused and shout: CHOO CHOO MUTHAFAKAZ! |
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...
P.S. it ironic how Europeans comfort themselves with notions of how their governments are less rapacious. Hilter's government was also so caring in the beginning while it was printing money for universal health care. You all never learn your lesson about collectivism and always come back for sloppy seconds, thirds, fourths, ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_lawEven not clearly stated; you fulfill this law by well... just mention it? I didn't know it existed though. Such a black hole this internet thing |
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I think someone is testing resistance @ $1030 Market shows signs of maturity. I like this. |
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Bitcoins have various uses. An arbitrage argument implies that the values derived from all uses equalize. One use is as a circulating currency. In that use, the value is described by PQ=MV. In this case, M can be taken as the fraction of the bitcoin which is in use as a circulating currency. In that application V is approximately 6, which is consistent with fiat economies and the current blockchain turn-over. Gresham's law dictates that bitcoin are hoarded in preference to fiat. My best first estimate of M therefore is 10% of supply. Let's be conservative in valuation and lazy in math, and allow it to be 1/6 to balance V. PQ is the volume of goods and services transacted times the price at which they are transacted, using bitcoin. On this basis, the market cap of bitcoin should be approximately equal to the bitcoin annual GDP. As a best-effort first guess, I would call it, say, France, about 2.6 tln USD2013. For a semi-durable bound, we take the all-uses bitcoin supply at 18mn. Thus, 1 mBTC = $15.
The parameters of the model are up for debate, but the model itself is inescapable.
+1 Statistically speaking, your bitcoin-as-currency assumptions are fairly adequate. Chances are it's missing a strong point here. This is the physical meaning of BTC. This is the most important aspect IMHO. IF (and that's a strong one) it evolves to a currency the approach you've came along with, will be possible. If it remains as a vague multi-system (as it is now) then the parameters are totally different and it requires *a lot* of work to be done in order to predict a realistically fair price... You can already rule out scenario A and B because China expressed as openly as they possibly could that Bitcoin is NOT a currency and is NOT money. Good luck trying to be the worldwide anything without China's backing.
This is nothing but a political statement IMHO. Political statements can be different from one day to another (especially to political systems like the Chinese). So, I wouldn't hold my breath on the todays announcement. After all, it's a vague one. People are free to use it; while monetary corps are not? Something is *REALLY* fishy here if you change the optical angle you're looking at it... Hint: Ever tried to make a *corporate* exchange account on Gox or Kraken? |
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Congratulations on the ingenious approach. I like it. My thoughts: Scenarios A and E can be statistically ruled out (percentage wise) due to their extreme nature. I'd give both of them 1-10% at best. Scenarios B and D have more possibilities to exist than A and E since there's already evidential data for both of them. I'd give both 10-30%. The most possible scenario is IMHO the C. This is happening already and we're witnessing every day. More data will value it with more percentage in the future, but I strongly believe that this will be the case. I'd give it a 40-80% of existence. I have already posted in the very beginning here of a thought I had about a world wide currency. This was a case study among friends back then. You might find it entertaining... I so much enjoy reading this thread; really. Before learning about BC, I've discussed an idea with a friend of mine (he's into stock exchange business). I've asked him to imagine how the perfect monetary system would look like. I proposed a saying from Alvin Toffler who predicted ''the society in order to preserve itself should be evolved into a hypersociety and declare money obsolete''. There was a huge brainstorming that night; I guess the red wine from Nemea, Greece helped a lot; but there was a conclusion. We've came along to the fact that a certain productivity factor should arise. One that should baptise each and everyone's effort for the community to evolve, with a certain grade. Not one should be left without one. Grades should be given to everyone, regardless how small or big they were. Even animals and plants should be graded. We agreed that the grades should reflect money... well not really; points taken should get you more to the ''respect'' rate of the society system. The more respected, the louder the voice you'd had in order to make a decision for the society to maintain its evolvement. And then... it came to me. I've proposed that the ''points'' should be measured in ''Energy''. Joules, W/h, kW/h and so forth. For instance you are a plumber and fixed a hose; how much hours did you spend? A. Your points should be: (A_hours_spent x Productivity_Factor)=Points_taken. Productivity factors should -of course- include the quality of work done; but that's a different chapter... The only worry of ours was how could you fix a system that incorporates high security, viability and most important; the 'inability' of someone to create some points out of thin air... and then came BitCoin... and here I am! |
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