... There may be no direct causal relationship. But a hugely rising (or falling) number of users transacting in bitcoin will obviously exert pressure on the exchange price.  ... I'm bearish, but I'm also not shorting. I honestly haven't been able to read BTC market like I once could. So if forced to TL;DR, I'd say: The bulk of BTC users are speculators. BTC exchange rate is ultimately determined by their sentiment and trading strategies.<==seems self-evident to me Over the last year, bigger, tougher, smarter kids started playing in our sandbox. I can't compete--trading I do now amounts to little more than gambling. Something like that. Do you mind me asking if you are holding bitcoin or sat on the sidelines in cash? Interesting that you feel the market movements have changed in some way due to new participants, especially as volatility has reduced? I suppose the price is ultimately determined by supply and demand. That is supply from miners, genuine sellers and speculators, versus demand from new and veteran consumer buying. The shifts in balance determine the short term price trends. In such a thinly traded market my view is also that currently sentiment is hugely important as speculation probably has a major role in price discovery*. That said, overall mining supply and consumer demand should drive the price in the longer term which is evident in charts going back several years. Will it continue? I think so. I am not bothered particularly by short term volatility in the price otherwise I would have sold long ago (and been considerably better off from my bitcoin holdings). The very fact that silicon valley is rapidly integrating bitcoin into everything for what is really a tiny global userbase tells me big business wants bitcoin to succeed. * i am very busy with my day job but i have for a long time wanted to create a script to scrape the this forum and perform some sentiment analysis to generate some statistics to compare with the exchange rate and google trends etc. |
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^Gotcha. Neither one of us thinks that there is a causal relationship between user adoption and BTC exchange rates.
We agree that all arguments extrapolating higher BTC exchange rate because greater adoption are nonsense.
We're good. Sorry about the misunderstanding.
There may be no direct causal relationship. But a hugely rising (or falling) number of users transacting in bitcoin will obviously exert pressure on the exchange price. I think my original point was that it is pretty hard to adopt something you have never heard of. Ergo, increasing media coverage of bitcoin, seeing that little b sign at dell or (soon to be) paypal or uber will pique the interest of joe public, eventually contributing to increasing adoption. You know all this but have a bearish position so argue against it. But that is ok |
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Capistustation!
Lol. |
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...
You do understand that consumer adoption follows media exposure, right?
So, just to eliminate any doubt in my mind, since last year we had: 1. Increasing media exposure. 2. Increasing adoption. 3. Falling exchange rate. ∴ If (1) and (2) continue, the exchange rate is going to continue on its present trajectory, i.e. falling.  I don't remember using the word price in that sentence. I don't remember using the word "price" in this entire thread. What made you bring it up? I would say personally that adoption is lagging compared to merchant integration, and speculators are selling more than buying resulting in us being at the bottom of a bear market. I think merchant adoption is actually largely irrelevant to the price at current levels of trade.
User adoption is rising and once the price turns and heads back up past 800 a new larger tranche of users will discover how easy it is to buy, save and use bitcoin. They and you will drive the next bubble. As you well know it is a price cycle - not a strict mathematical formula.
Are you saying that user adoption is driven by the price (higher BTC exchange rate will cause greater adoption), and not vice versa? If so, I'd say you're in the minority. Your points would have been equally valid last year after the run to 266 and dive to 60, for a time. Shortly afterward they became very wrong indeed, as I suspect they will again.
I posted a list of [what I believe to be facts], (1) through (3), and a conclusion following from the premise that BTC exchange rate was in a causal relationship with (2). Like so: A -> B ~B A ∴ ~(A -> B) ...so not sure what you mean by "your point." What point do you think I'm trying to make? I am posting this from an ipad so apologies for formatting. Exchange rate = price. Hence the mention. Your argument seems to be: continued bitcoin media exposure together with rising adoption equals a falling price. Therefore bitcoin is going to continue falling. Now since the price previously topped that correlation exists. Correlation does not equal causation. Simply widening your timeframe tells a different and opposite story where the price has risen instead. |
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They're dead and they don't know it yet. Don't even waste the energy telling them -- just watch them fidget around in panic. I am going to amass some money and set a short with a liquidation price above $800. It'll be gold for the grandkids.
Good luck with that. |
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Shortly afterward they became very wrong indeed, as I suspect they will again.
It's different this time, since we no longer have Gox manipulating the price, pulling the rest of the market in its direction. There won't be a new rally. It's different this time, eh? Ha. |
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...
You do understand that consumer adoption follows media exposure, right?
So, just to eliminate any doubt in my mind, since last year we had: 1. Increasing media exposure. 2. Increasing adoption. 3. Falling exchange rate. ∴ If (1) and (2) continue, the exchange rate is going to continue on its present trajectory, i.e. falling. I don't remember using the word price in that sentence. I would say personally that adoption is lagging compared to merchant integration, and speculators are selling more than buying resulting in us being at the bottom of a bear market. I think merchant adoption is actually largely irrelevant to the price at current levels of trade. User adoption is rising and once the price turns and heads back up past 800 a new larger tranche of users will discover how easy it is to buy, save and use bitcoin. They and you will drive the next bubble. As you well know it is a price cycle - not a strict mathematical formula. Your points would have been equally valid last year after the run to 266 and dive to 60, for a time. Shortly afterward they became very wrong indeed, as I suspect they will again. |
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With the news of Paypal adopting bitcoins I'm waiting for the beginning of a new bubble.
The time it takes for the average Bitcoin user to first hear about it and then purchase some initially is long period, long enough that I expect this news to not impact the price until the end of the year. Eventually though, all of this good news will build too much pressure, and another adoption phase will trigger price growth. Once the average investor understands Bitcoin as an option and realizes it is in limited supply and increasing demand, the dam will brake. That is when many larger markets will enter into the currency and we will stat to see gaudy five figure valuations for a Bitcoin. This, this, this. It is the monetary properties which will propel the bitcoin price into the stratosphere. That is precisely why I bought in last year. Mathematically fixed scarcity. It is why every bull and troll alike are on this forum. We are in a phase where bitcoin utility has improved dramatically. (I bought a curry from across the road with bitcoin last night, showed a friend to demonstrate the process - he couldn't believe how easy it was, thanks bitpay). Soon you will be able to use bitcoin everywhere online. Joe public is greedy and wants to make money through savings. We live in a time of perpetual ZIRP. Whether it happens all at once driven by an exogenous event(ETF, bank bailin) or in successive waves as in the past, bitcoin adoption will swell. It only has to reach 4 million active users globally for the price to bubble again. Ask yourself this: if only 1 million people actively use a new digital private money globally, accounting for no real sales in the grand scheme of things, why are the biggest online companies in the world integrating it into there systems? Hint: fallllling is wrong! |
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well WTF am I missing here ebay/paypal announces they are gonna take Bitcoin and usd price has dropped to $466 wtf am I missing here..jeez
What you're missing is that ebay/paypal hasn't announced that they are going to take bitcoin. Once they do actually announce they will be accepting bitcoin it might be a different story, but until it actually happens I wouldnt hold my breath. A paypal subsidiary called braintree will probably use bitcoin a a mobile phone payment option, but ebay/paypal is not considering bitcoin at the moment. the ceo of ebay has been considering BTC for about a year, he likes btc a lot. pay pals reluctance is what has kept it from going through. they have a monopoly over ebay they don't want to give up. likely paypal sees its only a matter of time and is trying to position themselves as middleman in the setup. eBay adopting BTC would result in increased sell pressure, hence falling prices. The PayPal announcement had the same effect. New merchants accept BTC all the time, and price keeps falling. You do understand that consumer adoption follows media exposure, right? |
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If bitcoin goes up even $600, I will sell. Really, I will sell.
In this way you will miss the rise to 3000$, just howl and wait. Oh really? You believe that? Bitcoin to $3000? Hmmmm.. 2-3 years maybe.. Overly fanatics.. Come down here.. in reality.. There will be no way bitcoin will rise up to $3000. No way. Dont get your hopes up. Last year no one thought it would reach 266. Then no one thought it could ever reach 1200. Now after the market is working off that exuberance and coins are being distributed from short term speculators to long term holders eventually supply will dry up once again. How high will it go this time? Hint: most of the forum seems to be expecting it to plummet to 200-350. |
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3600 new coins are mined every day. Miners have to sell a lot of those coins to pay their bills. That's a lot of sell pressure. No wonder the price is in a downtrend now that Gox is gone and Willy isn't fixing the market.
You talk about willy as if there is any actual proof of it's existence. Do you have any or just spreading FUD? |
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I think we are now in the final phase where coins can be accumulated relatively cheaply. Who knows how long it will last? I personally think we will move sharply up in the next few weeks or months. Every day there is new positive news. The auction reinforced the friendly US position towards bitcoin. Several giant retailers have publically integrated bitcoin into their payment systems. Today it was the turn of Newegg. Over the coming weeks and months I predict user adoption will start to move upwards sharply again. This will cause the price to rise. It will be front run by whales and big players. A common theme is that bitcoin bubbles reduce in amplitude with each successive leap but I am not so sure. Once a battle for the ATH commences its off to the races. It is time to speculate to accumulate! Ignore the bears and traders. Look at the big picture. Every single time in the past my only regret with bitcoin is that I didn't buy more when i had the chance.  (only invest what you can afford to lose!) Says OP in July... it is now September
IGNOREDI stand by it. Fundamentals continue to improve. |
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Instead of making that guy even more of a celebrity (why do people insist on feeding him? its moronic.), let's male a generalized troll list.
Or blitz could just ban every name on a rolling approved list.. |
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no there was some other guy in the past that was just like falling. Forgot his name. He kept saying how bitcoin was going to hit 0.
igorr ? yep.. |
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order book has changed complteley, ask walls were eaten, not removed.
Soon comes the time where the bears who sold at 460-480 must BUY BACK.
Wait for shorts to start closing.. Huobi 1200 away from psychologically important 3000 |
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There we go..lets get some momo buying!
1200 coins to 500 on stamp..btfinex 2000
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Good luck to the guys shorting at 480. Walls slowly disappearing above. So far buying when the paypal news came out was right.
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LOL at people telling others to hold and use Btc as a future currency rather than an investment. 90% of u guys (including me) are right now at a loss having bought at the 600-1000 price range and just waiting for the price to recover so that we can insta-dump as soon as we get into the green. When and if BTC hits 1000 again and most of us will go + a few percentage, we are going to INSTA dump.
I am in the 10%, yay. Seriously do you understand market cycles and volatility. Do you have patience? Or when you get the urge to open your bowels do you just instadump right where you stand |
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A sudden move up towards 500 and watch those walls melt away and the shorts burn.
Still 3.5k to go. And then a lot more back to $600. I suspect the walls might just disappear with any sustained buying. Some of the walls hanging over us might even be owned by the guys doing the big buys..how anyone trades with leverage in this market i dont know! |
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As Blitz does not want to take any action against fallling, it is only fair that we compile a list so the genuine newbies know who to ignore.
So here is the Speculation board recommend ignore list / all of fallling's known duplicate accounts:
fallling
realcrash
Bitcoinisdone
ongel
fonzie (people who have been around for a while remember that fonzie was his orginal account, then he seemed to migrate his trolling to fallling. His fonzie account does not do any trolling at the moment, but it is still the same kid in India operating it)
institutionaltrader
I wish to self-moderate this thread
antibitcoinconsortium? |
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