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341  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: taking out a loan for a sports bet (UPDATE) + fixed match on: August 23, 2022, 01:43:44 PM
The fixed match information is going to end badly.  False confidence and a bet placed with too high an amount for a result that one day doesnt deliver leading OP to lose possibly all his gains.   Fixed matches have to be considered just as high risk and borrowing with money not yours.   I cant see this ending well overall, take money off the table so you dont end up with nothing.   Dont be greedy, simple advice hard to take I guess

Given that the OP wanted to bet on borrowed money, this is complete madness. Firstly, I don't believe that his information about fixed games was real. Secondly, even if the game is really fixed, this does not guarantee the desired result. For example, if a tennis player who is the favorite wants to lose a set or the whole game to a weaker opponent, he is faced with the fact that his opponent gets injured and loses the game. What can he do in this situation? Nothing. Thus, even a bet on a fixed game can be lost.
342  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 on: August 23, 2022, 12:22:08 PM
If I remember correctly, there are only a few types of poker left where the AI is still weaker than a human. And if you look at the trend, this situation is clear how it will end. I'm not sure exactly what Carlsen's motivation is, since in poker no one player (in modern conditions) has ever dominated. At the highest level, this is a game of luck, where the outcome is determined almost entirely by chance. For Carlsen, it's most likely just entertainment plus making money. I think advertising from an influencer like him is very expensive.

indeed it's probably expensive to hire Carlsen for an ad and he's probably picky on which companies to advertise for

regarding Poker and AI, can AI bluff? curious about it
for sure it can calculate the mathematical possibilities better than humans, but poker is not only luck, it's a game of skill

What is the game of skill? In all games where only skill is taken into account, AI is already undeniably better than a person - chess, GO, checkers, any other board games. As for bluffing, I can’t answer this question because I don’t know the details, but it seems to me that it can because from the AI point of view, bluffing is a common action in the game that leads to certain consequences with certain probabilities. Since the AI calculates all these probabilities, why not use this technique.
343  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ BOXING POLL ADDED ] The Rematch - JOSHUA vs USYK II (updated thread) on: August 23, 2022, 12:08:11 PM
And how do you like his words to Usyk after the fight? He said: "You are not strong, how did you defeat me?" After this fight, he had more questions than answers, it's just a situation when a person does not have an understanding of what needs to be done now, or what needs to be done to win. In fact, he just entered the ring and did not show anything new, he clearly lost, and the fact that one of the judges gave him the victory could really seem like a some kind of hope to him.

If AJ did not even understand how he lost, then this speaks more about the skill of Usyk than about the weak ability AJ to analyze. It reminded me of the last Champions League - many said (and some still say) that Real was weaker than all their opponents in the playoffs, but nevertheless Real beat them all.
After the 9th round, it was clear in the eyes of AJ that he thought that he had found the keys to victory and was about to break Usyk and knock him out. He didn’t even think about other scenarios and I’m sure he didn’t think about plan B, so when Usyk just beat him in the 10th and subsequent rounds, AJ looked helpless.
344  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: August 22, 2022, 10:21:25 AM
I bet on Napoli matches because they were easy, but I wouldn't have expected such a profitable and efficient attack either
I'm surprised
I am sure that this season we will have a lot of fun, with all these competitive teams it will be a fight for the first and for the cup places

Napoli repeats their successful start to last season, but still the opponents have been very weak so far and only two games have been played.
In today's games, I wanted to bet on Roma to win against Cremonese, but the odds are too small - 1.25. In the first round, despite the defeat, Cremonese performed well in the away game against Fiorentina. I don't think Roma's victory is guaranteed and will be easy.
345  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2022/2023 on: August 22, 2022, 10:08:36 AM
Liverpool's chances of winning are very convincing for the match against Manchester United. Liverpool have an almost 60% percentage advantage in their probability of winning, but I don't think that will be a guarantee to determine they can win. I think Liverpool should convince me enough to get that win, so they can't drop points again for the third time in a row.



The odds of 60% are actually low, especially when compared to the odds offered by the bookmakers - 1.65. If you win 6 games out of 10 you will be at a loss. If you believe that Manchester United has a 20% chance of winning and make a bet with 5 odds, then at a distance of 10 games you will have zero profit, but also zero loss.
346  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling on Psychology & Sociology Perspectives. on: August 22, 2022, 09:53:47 AM
I was quite surprised when I read this article for the first time because they gamble not for money or pleasure but because of the culture to test luck.
it is true that gambling is like betting on luck how much luck we have on that day.
but in gambling for me luck has a very small chance to get it. so there are still many people out there who consider gambling just for entertainment or to fill their spare time. but that's all actually to cover up being disappointed when you always lose at gambling and actually hoping to win to get more money.
no one wants to lose constantly spending money and losing at gambling, unless the person is very rich.

If it's part of the tradition then why not? Indeed, in different cultures there are different types of "offerings to the gods" which in modern conditions have turned into something like charity. When you donate to charity or spend on traditional entertainment (like New Year's Eve), you don't expect to make a profit, do you? If the symbolic spending on the "test of luck" is perceived as such and this is an element of culture, then there is nothing special about it.
347  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: August 21, 2022, 05:02:15 PM
It really doesn't look in the slightest as if Bayern Munich would be making any mistakes in the Bundesliga any time soon. They are like the high-speed train.

When Dortmund even loses home games like that, then how in the world could any team from the Bundesliga become a threat for Bayern Munich? I think we will see an extremely dominant season by Bayern and they will win the championship weeks and weeks before the season ends. All the strong teams are struggling so hard and I don't see any chance for Gladbach or Union Berlin to have some serious streaks of success. They will lose their games from time to time and Bayern will hardly lose any points at all.

It's the 70th minute of the game and Bayern lead 0-6. I wonder if they will show such a phenomenal performance all season long? If I were competitors, I would have already begun to be afraid, haha. It must be admitted that the departure of Lewandowski did not affect the attacking potential of Bayern in any way, and perhaps opened up some new facets of this team - now not one person but the whole team scores goals. However, Mane scored a double today and this means that he is doing his job as a striker well.
348  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ BOXING POLL ADDED ] The Rematch - JOSHUA vs USYK II (updated thread) on: August 21, 2022, 02:53:29 PM
What is happening to AJ? Has he lost his drive, his motivation, his hunger? I mean, because I do not understand what's been going on with this champ. Has he made so much money that his heart in no longer in the sport? Totally appalled and embarrassed with his performance in the ring. The AJ I watched today stands no fighting chance against Fury and Wilder.

There is such a proverb as "you can not jump above your head." AJ had a great fight and apparently it was his maximum. He added in speed and in an attempt to use his size. Compared to the first fight where he was beaten, this was a much higher level fight. But still, Usyk turned out to be stronger. Now it's a very difficult decision for AJ (he is now in the same situation as Wilder before) - to retire or to continue fighting with a slim chance that he will be given another attempt to get belt?
349  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 on: August 21, 2022, 02:08:03 PM
Has anyone noticed on YouTube that Carlsen is advertising some kind of casino? I don't remember the name, but I do remember the slogan "Zero Risk Gambling" hahaha. Judging by his participation in poker competitions and this advertisement, it can be assumed that he is increasingly immersed in the world of gambling. Is this just making money interesting or is he seriously interested in this area? I hope this is a passing fad, I would like to see him in the next cycles of the Candidates Tournament.
I have not seen this but there could be some very deep reasons for this new interest in gambling, I have seen chess go from humans being better than computers, then being evenly matched to a complete dominance of computers over humans, poker due to its nature is still a game in which humans are better than computers and most likely this will remain the case until very smart AI is developed, maybe Carlsen is frustrated with the fact that even if he is the best human chess player he cannot beat his digital opponents, and he would like to try poker as it is a game in which he could reach the true top, but this is speculation on my part.

If I remember correctly, there are only a few types of poker left where the AI is still weaker than a human. And if you look at the trend, this situation is clear how it will end. I'm not sure exactly what Carlsen's motivation is, since in poker no one player (in modern conditions) has ever dominated. At the highest level, this is a game of luck, where the outcome is determined almost entirely by chance. For Carlsen, it's most likely just entertainment plus making money. I think advertising from an influencer like him is very expensive.
350  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ BOXING POLL ADDED ] The Unification Fight: FURY vs USYK on: August 21, 2022, 01:28:19 PM
-skip-
Eventually that unification fight is going to happen therefore who do you think will win: Fury or Usyk

On the one hand, I would say that Fury will win, because if the difference in weight between Usyk and Joshua is approximately 10 kilograms, then between Usyk and Fury it is already more than 20 and this looks like a critical advantage. On the other hand, if you remember how many hits Fury missed from Wilder (and in fact won only due to a stronger head), then I would say that if Usyk is fast and Fury cannot knock him out, then Usyk will win on points.
In any case, I would love to watch this fight.
351  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: List of psychological tricks that casinos use. on: August 20, 2022, 03:41:35 PM
For number 2 on the list in the article for traditional casinos, seems can't be done in online casinos since there's predetermined clock in our phones. I think the future of online casinos are to be hyper realistic that people may think we're still in the physical setting and I think the Metaverse is the key to this success.

There is a certain paradox here: at this stage of technology development, this is impossible, and when these technologies appear, they will be available to everyone and the casino will not have an advantage over any other games/projects. I think that the future of online casinos is the same factors that make it popular now: mobility, accessibility, weaker control from the state.
352  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What’s your gambling profit percentage limit? on: August 20, 2022, 03:30:27 PM
I use profit percentage as my restriction to not overplay too much. I usually set 100% of my initial deposit as target profit before I stop gambling. Sometimes my bankroll got busted before I hit that target which means I need to stop gambling for the day and move on for tomorrow. I use this method after suffering a huge loss by just chasing more profit even though I already gain so much money. I admit that I don’t have satisfaction on just winning because I don’t have limit goal before.

Now, I manage to play in moderate way and increase my profit in general because I already control myself on when to take profit and stop gambling for good.


Are you using using same method on limiting your gambling crave? What’s your percentage goal?

I focus on a profit range of x3-x5. If you take a higher multiplier, then the winnings will be too rare. If you take lower multipliers, for example x2, then it will be too stupid and sad for me, because one day winning 100% of the budget and losing the same 100% the other day, I will lose all the money without any interest due to the bookmaker's margin/casino. This is true for other multipliers (house edge) but it is much more fun to get x3-x5 at least sometimes than the maximum x2.
353  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +82959 units on: August 20, 2022, 03:14:55 PM
Not your day so far and Conte was on touchline with players. Not sure how it works with manager bans, did he even got red card in last game? I sow the incident but did not see if they got carded after that.

First game on my ticket passed with this hard fought Spurs victory, 5 more to go today. Now it becomes time for some both to score games.

It looks like they both got red cards after the skirmish at the end of the game. But the punishment in the form of a ban was imposed later after the consideration of the case by the football association of England. It is interesting that Tuchel is found to be the main culprit and will pay a fine of 35 thousand pounds, and Conte only 15 thousand pounds. I don't know if this was the reason, but today's game turned out to be unexpectedly difficult for Tottenham.
354  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Share your Football Betting Strategies to Beat the Bookies this Season on: August 20, 2022, 03:04:08 PM
One of my strategies is that I am not planning or dreaming to win big in this present season, also in other next seasons, I am only dreaming to bet and have fun while betting, nothing else than that. Gambling is a lucky game, I can win or lose, but if thinking of winning big, I will lose more. I just have some fee dollars to spend on betting.

For now I am looking just betting, taking just one match because it is the start of new season, any club can lose unexpectedly, no more analyses for now that seeing the strength of players in some clubs, clubs like Liverpool have good players but not playing gold for now, so I just decide to go for one matches weekly until first matches are played to make better analyses.

A good strategy in the sense that it protects you from both big losses and over-involvement in betting. I also prefer single bets because, firstly, multibets are unprofitable compared to single bets, and secondly, it is very unpleasant to lose the entire bet because of one outcome. This is especially unpleasant when this outcome becomes known last and breaks everything that was previously "accumulated".
355  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: August 19, 2022, 12:19:30 PM

The chances of the top six winning the World Cup look like this:

Brazil        5.55
England    6.60
France      7.05
Argentina  8.10
Spain        9.10
Germany   11.10

If there was complete certainty that one of these teams would win gold, then one could bet on all of them and get a guaranteed profit of almost 21%. But I do not think that anyone can give such guarantees. Even if we imagine that all these teams have reached the 1/4 finals (and they can meet each other at earlier stages), it turns out that there will be 2 teams that, in order to become a champion, need to win only 3 games in underdog status. This is a fairly common situation in annihilation games.

Can you post the source of this list please?

In my opinion, England is not the second favorite to win

I would put:
1 - Brazil > France > Germany > Argentina > England > Spain
Only considering these six above, but I think I prefer to put Netherlands instead of Spain in sixth place

Obviously it's not 100% guaranteed to any os these 6 squads to win, but I don't see any other teams winning this cup, maybe Netherlands and Belgium. Portugal and Uruguai are strong but not at the point to win the cup.


https://stake.com/sports/outright/soccer/international/world-cup/10753-world-cup-2022 - here is the source (click World Cup - Winner and you will see the details), however, I do not think that any other bookmaker quotes are very different.
I agree about Germany, this team is underestimated, but on the other hand there are reasons for this - already two major competitions can be said to be failed and in general it is now difficult to single out someone as a super star there, and the whole team does not show the results that are usually expect from them.
356  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Your General Feeling After Playing In Casino In the last 10 session on: August 19, 2022, 12:10:40 PM
Before we lose a lot of money, it is very important always to limit the amount of money we want to use. Doing so will not be frustrated because we are trying to keep our money from running out. Playing gambling always requires money but that does not mean we have to use a lot of money every time we gamble so that we set how much money to gamble. With these restrictions, we can already feel how gambling is and can also get entertainment and pleasure in playing gambling. It will also prevent us from getting addicted to gambling later.

Such an algorithm of actions probably implies not only setting a limit on loss, but also on winning? If you lost the allocated budget, then you should stop - this is understandable. But what if you win x10 of your budget? If you continue to gamble, you may become too gambler and get the addiction you are trying to avoid. Probably in such a situation, you should withdraw money and wait for the next gambling session.
357  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Influence of "Paid" Streamers on Online gambling..... on: August 19, 2022, 11:31:45 AM
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How does the "Paid" Streamers ..influence other gamblers experience? So, the common assumption is that "Paid" streamers basically have limitless funds that are paid by the casinos. They can play, until the Slot pays them, where other people play until their money runs out. (This is a misconception obviously, because the outcome of each bet is determined by it's seed and the Slots variance and RTP)

Why is it obvious to you that this is a misconception? Can you give at least one argument in favor of this? If a streamer has a contract with a casino, then he plays for fake money and does not risk anything. He can "lose" a million before he gets a 200k jackpot and then he will promote the clip everywhere where he "wins" it. An ordinary player is deprived of such an opportunity, since in most cases his money will run out much earlier than he receives any big win.

As for the relationship between the results of the game of the streamer and ordinary players, this is of course nonsense - the results of games in the casino for separate players are completely independent.
358  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The characteristics of people who are addicted to online gambling on: August 19, 2022, 11:15:57 AM
Society has some rules that in the long run has proven correct.They,the society see gambling as a bad thing and not necessarily gamblers as bad persons but since these people called gamblers are involved in this bad act then most probably they assume these people to be bad.History has shown us that except those people who won multi million dollars jackpots no one else has been successful in the long run in gambling,this says a lot as why gambling is considered bad by many religions and societies.In gambling you can never earn continuously as no one can control their emotions for a long time without making a rushing bad decision.

Even if this is true (which I strongly doubt), what does this have to do with the interests of individuals? When you buy food, go to the movies or gamble, do you think about the interests of society? Personally, I don't. I know that in most cases my interests and the interests of society are opposite, for example, it would be extremely beneficial for society if I worked all my life for little money and then died on the first day of retirement. But for some reason I don't like this scenario ) If I want to spend money on gambling, then I can do it regardless of what society thinks about it in the short or long term.
359  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: To build your Professionalism on casino on: August 18, 2022, 02:41:57 PM
In fact, when your gambling addict friend asks for a loan, there are no good solutions. In 99.9% of cases, you will either lose a friend, or money, or both. I do not think that the advice can change anything in his situation, since at this stage of addiction, only more radical methods of treatment will be effective. And as you rightly noted, a friend's interest in treatment is also necessary.

As much as we want to deny it, this is the reality. If ever you have someone that is close to you who has gambling problems, you shouldn't let them borrow money from you or to your other friends just to sustain his gambling habits. Even if they beg you, do not falter because giving in to such request could only just ruin his life even more. Because as we all know, gambling addiction is one of the major problems player fight with. If he already have an issue to begin with, then you shouldn't fuel his thirst to it.

Lending money is risky as well. As a lender, you don't have the assurance of when will the money you lent be paid back to you. Unless of course, you will make legal documents. But some of those who have contracts pay past due too and some even break their contracts, getting away with their debt. So yes, if you let your friend borrow you money, you can either lose money or lose both friend and money. In this part, you have to be firm. You have to stand your ground if money is important to you as well as your friend's well-being.

No matter how you look at it, it turns out that in any situation, lending money to a friend who will spend it on gambling is an erroneous and harmful decision. In general, there are different views on such things - some believe that a friend should be helped in any case, and some cynics believe that a friend should be left in trouble, because if this is not done, he will drag you there too ) There is sense in both points of view, but in those cases when help is needed even with the patient's resistance, only relatives have any real opportunities. From the point of view of the law, friends are just strangers.
360  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: August 18, 2022, 02:28:40 PM
There is no doubt we are going to have winner from top four to six teams because these all are having quality and skilled players, and they can turn table in their favor at any time without serious trouble with right now most chances peoples polls saying if we short list few teams then right now both teams from South America are hot favorite for this event because these both teams are well-balanced and have better ability to fight with these conditions instead of European teams.

But, if we check quality then surely few European teams are superior and also can go through for title with their quality and talent because these are also well settled and can give their best like France, England, Germany and Netherlands.

The chances of the top six winning the World Cup look like this:

Brazil        5.55
England    6.60
France      7.05
Argentina  8.10
Spain        9.10
Germany   11.10

If there was complete certainty that one of these teams would win gold, then one could bet on all of them and get a guaranteed profit of almost 21%. But I do not think that anyone can give such guarantees. Even if we imagine that all these teams have reached the 1/4 finals (and they can meet each other at earlier stages), it turns out that there will be 2 teams that, in order to become a champion, need to win only 3 games in underdog status. This is a fairly common situation in annihilation games.
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