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Looks like the Max Keiser pump didn't help much..
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They could purchase 500K - 1M coins without moving the market very much using dark pools. I highly doubt they would barrel in all at once with 1B. But yes, 1B would affect the exchanges.
Dark pools do not create coins. They have to buy them somewhere. Or mine them. What would be the interest of a miner to sell large quantities of coins at bulk price when they can sell them higher on open markets ? Do you think I'm mentally retarded? Dark pools also help large holders sell large quantities so that they do not crash the market, because of one of the large sellers tried to unload 500K coins.....no, they would not get higher prices on the open market. You didn't answer the question : why - in such a bullish market - would anyone with a large number of coins trying to cash out prefer to sell them at a "fixed" price somehow "under" the mtgox price when he can simply build a wall and quietly wait for somebody to buy it at its price ? Why ? For anonymity ? He will have to cash the check someday and pay its taxes. Unless he "dark buyer" pays in cash which I don't believe. Unless, of course, the dark pool buyer is stuck in MtGox verification queue and is ready to pay a nice premium to buy its coins today and "win" 10 days. At the current growth rate, it means the seller could ask $1000/BTC and not sound ridiculous. Sure. They're going to let somebody with millions wait in an id verification queue. |
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I always suspected Max Keiser to be a bitcoin pumper. Now I'm sure of it.
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I also noticed this. Another bearish sign: the traders at bitstamp are not buying this rally anymore.
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Little risk??? Do you remember what happened to bitcoinica, which by the way bitfinex stole the code from? NO THANK YOU
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Nobody actually paid that much. You can set a limit bid at any price, and that limit shows up in the charts..
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...
History likes to repeat itself?
You are using completely different units for them. The timeframe is the same. I meant the percentage of growth in the first one is outrageous, while that of the second one is much smaller. And either by absolute or relative growth it's the auto-adjustment of bitcoinchart that gives them green candles roughly the same length. The way I see it is that the market was relatively thin back in 2011. Now there's more liquidity, so it won't spike as much during a bubble. IMO we're in the "return to normal" stage now. |
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...
History likes to repeat itself?
You are using completely different units for them. The timeframe is the same. |
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It's an unconfirmed transaction. |
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Congrats everyone!
I don't think there's many people not feeling very pleased right now. ALOT of old hands sold at 13. I can assure you they are not pleased. Including me. Yes it hurts a lot. I got back in way later on, tried doing some trading, lost more.. |
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I am analyzing the buying cycle, it just began from one day to another, thats for me a big sign that a big investor started to buy from 14-15$.
There might be a lot of people participating on this bullish market actually but I suspect a big investor being still the mayor buyer. We also see it when someone is buying 5k-10k worth of bitcoins on mtgox at once, its one person and not several.
What do you think about it?
What kind of risks are associated with it when someone have more than 50% of Bitcoins, can he change anything on the bitcoin system?
No. |
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What about the idea of comparing transaction volume to other payment processors?
Paypal has a transaction volume of about 16 billion US$ per year.
Bitcoin's current transaction volume is about 300,000 BTC per day. If we assume a market price of 90$ that would add up to about 10 billion US$ per year.
So if Bitcoin usage and price stays at least at the current level then it is already 62% of Paypal.
The parity price for Paypal (assuming transactions stay at least the same) would be:
147$
Of course a significant amount of usage for Bitcoin is exchanging for Fiat currency while Paypal is almost all for goods and services.
A lot of those BTC are change too. |
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It's been inaccessible for more than 12 hours already. What's going on?
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Gox is an absolute disgrace when you think about the amount of money they must be making, are they all too busy swimming in a pool full of money or what?
While I wholeheartedly agree with you, yesterday was a DDOS, so it's not impossible that today is as well. What was the goal of that DDOS? Was it an extortion? What I noticed was a sale of about 4k bitcoins, after which Mt.Gox quickly went unstable. I suspect that either tons of traders were hitting the sell button after that or someone (that seller?) started a DDOS immediately after that to cause panic. EDIT: typo |
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Last night I finally understood what's with the gox engine lag: ...
<MagicalTux> molec: we need to change the way users place orders to solve this
<molec> MagicalTux, in what way?
<MagicalTux> disallow users to place orders they can't fill
<molec> MagicalTux, +1. oh...
<molec> MagicalTux, it's dawning on me
<MagicalTux> and disallow users to withdraw balance required for open orders
<molec> MagicalTux, you have to trickle down the whole order list to set invalid/open status
<molec> MagicalTux, go do it!
<MagicalTux> right now each time a user balance change (trade, etc) we need to recheck all his open orders
...
I think that with proper data structures, one can link together the bids and asks of single user and immediately update "reserve" for the bid/ask after sell or buy. Funding and withdrawing are infrequent compared to trades. The structure can be held in memory, with commits to permanent storage. This should handle hundreds of trades per second, not a few, like it is now. Of course, this requires to avoid using normal relational databases, queries upon them, PHP code in server, etc. Also, the socket with trade data is sometimes overloaded, too. I am not a TCP/IP expert, but I cant see problem with cloning the data between multiple (in order of thousands) sockets open. This would solve all those disconnects on ClarkMoody, MtGoxLive, etc. An exchange, which cannot provide reliable and non-lagged data for its users, is .. unusable. Like that graph at the top of mtgox.com. Isn't it ironic that to trade at MtGox, or just watch it, you need to use third party tools?Absolutely agree with you. I've been long enough to know that bitcoin and exchanges are not the same thing but I can't help to think that this market got too big for what the infrastructure really is. It's just not there yet. |
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Does it also mean that ask side is also working the same way? So this is also bearish?
The situation I described had bearish result (rising market, no more auto-opening of bids => perceptively less bids). The other way around has bullish result: in a crash or falling market no more auto-opening of asks => ask side looks less impressive. So if I judge this right, it could dampen the moves (up and down). But keep in mind: this is mainly by perception. If people judge this correctly, it should not have much impact at all. EDIT: just thought again: of course the order-book will be thinner, maybe this could mean that rebounds will be even quicker. I sometimes use the current system to actually dampen some moves. For instance last night I set a sell at 92 USD and a bid, while not having enough USD funds, at 88. |
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As long as there are enough newbie bitcoin traders this will work.
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I recommend Bitstamp. Seems to attract many of the European users.
+100, quick support, reliable and often same day SEPA, well designed website...and a constantly growing userbase and volume. I must say that Bitstamp was also lagging for me, but not as bad as Mt.Gox. |
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