I assumed someone who just happens to be a massive gambler would also have a route to take up alot of wheel of fortune spins every day if they feel like it.  Just like I assume some people do get quite a few golden tickets because their gambling revenue gifts them that opportunity.    Surely big gambles result in RP or other rewards and in turn that means more spins.   I dont do it myself but surely arbitraging bets between varying odds available at different sites in crypto betting would also have this side benefit of giving out these spins & lotto tickets, ie. you appear to be a larger bettor then you actually are.    I know the big election bets, the odds varyed wildly so opportunities were there but some people track this kind of stuff every day constantly like the narrator at the end of Casino the movie its a real thing; big risks when bets here arent fixed tickets though.

I think the bearish trend is shorter term then this entire year, it just hasnt broken that trend just yet.   Its unlikely we never properly challenge the descent from the ATH, it may even happen in this next week as its looking very close to that line right now.    Somewhere around the 40k mark should be pivotal in deciding between negative and positive inertia in price action.

I'm not totally surprised, part of war games strategy is to explore viable threats to USA via economic tactics to undermine a country.   Surely crypto is large enough to be part of currency flow and the ability to transact with entities across borders.   North Korea frequently fraudulently produces currency of other nations as part of its renegade state activities to self finance itself by any means available to them, they also involved in crypto use in various nefarious schemes I think and so to CIA is part of the counter to that I would guess.

We are attempting a break past the downtrend right here at 39k.  Its above the weekly average in doing so and for the moment keeps alive the idea that BTC will now resolve the negative trend to attempt a higher price once again.


I do think whatever happens over this weekend with certain exchanges also has to be replicated and probably repeated during the week by all exchanges simultaneously.   Consensus and also volume makes that probable as highest volume is during the working weekend very often.

I wonder if Astralis can dominate this Blast series overall.   BO1 favors the underdog more then a normal 3 map match up but they seem strong enough in any case, not really the underdog especially.  They are about to beat Navi unless they mess up things especially or Navi pulls a rabbit out of the hat.  mibr should be the loser in whichever match follows.
   I put Liquid and Faze down as a multibet for 3x odds on the basis they both have a good chance of winning outright.

People complaining about price should adopt a regular investment strategy so they are less controlled by swings in the market.   So long as the underlying asset you are buying is still valid the lower price isnt really a reason to be feeling negative on it.   Problem is alot only care about the price and the interest is only skin deep so its easy to get scared without greater depth of involvement then that.
   Could flip it the other way and consider that Dollar though feared at present to rise in value is drastically challenged by ongoing overly easy central bank policy, despite current talk this isnt changing for years if ever.

The price is repeatedly testing the weekly average now, it does keep declining below that line but the multiple attempts to beat this measure make me think a further attempt upwards will occur.


If we close below 34.7k on 4hr bar then that would seem to invalidate this proposition.   Dollar index has been rising for most of the last 12 months, this accumulates to some pressure on BTC and if we could reverse that measure to any extent indicating a peak it would greatly help the bullish case for BTC

Its not a secret the price being lower is a positive if you are still buying or wanting to go up a tier.   Thats why I imagine the market for FUN token turns around because in the end its used rather then just plain speculation and using means supply taken off market order books.  Less supply vs even just average demand equates to a price rise eventually.   The site said they increased revenue and users so I presume even level demand is a fair assumption then.     
  The higher tiers are maybe but I think the 12.5k level is the one everyone should have as its the peak value for the price.  The main qualifier for having tokens or not besides speculation is if you use the site for more then one thing, purely just collecting the faucet its not worth it so much to bother but if you do the occasional sports bet (so have a balance here) and use up the wheel of fortune spins then its going to pay back eventually so might as well start when the price is low.
   I wouldnt say any great fortune appears from holding though continued development must be bullish, I would say the same for any token with utility if its improving its ease of use, spectrum of application its underlying positive; same applies to BTC and its way more important then market price swings.

Lots of pressure from higher Dollar on BTC now.  All this chart means is Dollar went up to peak of its trend levels, if its as a scales or ratio to BTC that makes it harder to rise.    This is 17 on a blackjack table or something, its kinda risky but also can be an opportunity if Dollar does top out in its value.   

We're in the process of forming a bottom, the problem is its only obvious in retrospect exactly when or where that process has completed.   I would say efforts to defeat downward momentum continue to occur but its not yet obvious and I dont think that will happen this month even.

We're about to once again challenge the 2 day and also weekly averages which are converging.  More important would be larger factors such as the actual negative trend from ATH and the 50 day average at about 45k but its descending every day.   People should stay positive overall in terms of a yearly perspective as factors such as the 200 day average reflect positive accumulation long term still.
  If we can tick off each objective on a list then I grow more optimistic, beat the recent high, beat 38k, beat 40k and confirm above the 50 day average.  We do all that and we've likely finished making new lows in this quarter.   Its always a case of variable probabilities, large events can push price off the road of where it was otherwise most likely to be.

Covid19 allowed BTC to rise more easily if anything is how I see it because the currency was loosened so much during that period.   At the same time distance transactions likely increased because of the dangers from crowding in normal shopping areas it promotes any standard which helps more distant transactions even cross border such as BTC is best at.
   I realize there is an obvious negative overall from these losses and deaths, I wouldnt deny that but it wont be the same for every sector and product usage.

Typically any significant point passed has to be confirmed in that ceiling before we go onto to make reliable new lows.   At present I see the market as consolidating and confirming the upper ranges of BTC.   We've tried and failed to pass the weekly average, now also below the 2 day average and until we break the overall trend from the ATH which is around 40k then it will likely continue in this disappointing way.
   Possibly if we fail to act positively for the next week or so then we do break downwards then.

For the moment we are not in the lowest range of pricing and staying above that is some small positive action.   It would be far better if we close above 37k or the blue line here which is 2 day average, over the weekend then it might prove positive.

BTC recovered back to weekly average but has to break range upwards just to meet its next battle at the downtrend now residing at 40k in inline with the decline from ATH



I think only the break past 40k upwards would really count as a proper rally noticeable by all participants.   At this time sellers would be beginning to be proved wrong and shorts will close out which helps with continued movement upwards.

People underestimate the volatility of BTC thats the problem, it means highs are greater then expected and also these giant waves recede also far more then expected.    If anything that makes 100k more likely then we realize because the amplitude of the waves is larger then most would estimate.

Sprout vs Dig   I think sprout is favored but I like the idea of a closer match here being possible.    They arent so far apart in ranks and DIG not being rated equally could be a good bet.   I think the match can goto 3 maps and thats my most likely bet and perhaps further bets if able to watch live and adjust .
  Better matches higher tier on Friday onwards

Back in a range again, needs to at least beat 38k and I think really the weekly average also.  Above that is the downtrend around 40k, again another battle BTC must win and regain the ground in order to declare its with a chance of accumulating positive momentum.   For the moment we have respite but not a serious rise in price only potential to do so.

Recent high to recent low and fib levels between them.  So we are past the 2 day average again but I'd feel alot better if we can pass a weekly average and stay above that, it'd be the start of some positive momentum that could be trusted.  38k appears to be the fair mid way point in all this, see if that point can pivot into forming this recent as the bottom.   It'll be a process as quite a bit of volume occurred, that has to plowed back out the way to progress up.

If we are in that larger cycle of prices then the full range would be down to 20k I presume.   However for it to happen all at once is not normally how it occurs, there's often a bounce along the way and that continued series of lower highs eventually leads to a multi year low.   There is the idea of war possible and FED actions but still it appears to have moved too much imo

5m bars on a chart is like throwing dice against a wall.   You can be right one minute and wrong the next, its a hard game to play because its so fast.   BTC does move on much slower movements and its always surprising when we know its so fast in appearance.   4hr bars is the lowest possible confident time frame I refer to, if we print a price on 4hr then its more likely to stick.
   Below 4hr bars is trading movements where we speculate and typically a trade would close out profits here not expect it to be a trend especially.



We are failing the 35k area it seems like and its failed that last attempt above 2 day moving average,  volume is favoring the downside for now.   Weds is FED news and we'll see if it can alter, maybe this point is a pivotal place to watch in that back and forth.   US open in a couple hours 33.8k now

Theres going to be some people who spin 50 wof every day of the year.    I hope they get their Rolex eventually, it does take alot tbh I think your results posted above were good though not specially lucky.   I much prefer that perfectly level 50 reward for clarity

Its not easy for 100x to occur because that BTC price action movement has to shock into end of month and the odds are closed.    Im sure it happened since but only time I especially remember and I guessed for some win it was July 2020 which was significant, even now the market cant push past the dollar index levels of that moment.    Hence why I think the selling now is weak hands more then anything genuine underlying, some are inclined to buy high sell low & the market is brutal in testing resolve like that.
   We are failing 35k area, that has to confirm on 4hr bars but its not positive into end of month because volume favors negative and Putin is really making the most of the spotlight.   We might peak in negative movement Weds as thats the FED press conference.  Closing price is a week from now, a Monday
  If it goes into 20k's then I was wrong but imo I didnt feel like chasing that possible and its only sub 25k where its really a jackpot in odds of 177x  at that multiple I should have placed a few sats tbh.    That would be a spike down though imo, it only counts at midnight

The 2 day and 12 hr averages converged and we got a recovery above both.   So it could at least be the start of a process which shows that was the bottom price for this month.   It has to build on that, there isnt any great signal a low will hold in that moment.  Usually there is a peak in volume of some kind, but I think the double top or that idea it doesnt happen singularly is probably my best confidence for a turn around.