Ok, here's a prediction. BTC will steadily start to rise on the next week. Volume will rise steeply and the price will slowly follow. It will rise till the start of January 2015 and will top around 3000-4000$ per coin. PPC will rapidly start to rise during the start of next month. NuBits, coming of v0.5 and the overheating of SHA256 mining, will cause a quick bull-run similar to the one that was experienced with LTC. PPC will probably top at around 25$-30$ this year. The rest of the cryptos is harder to predict, but here are some thoughts. LTC lost it's position with the popularity of scrypt mining and will probably be quite slow. DOGE will also probably rise, because of the active community and aggressive marketing strategies, but it's hard to tell how much will they actually invest for future marketing. Ripple will be the most unstable coin that will experience the highest and the deepest waves. Only recommended to play Ripple if you have professional experience with speculative trading. In this new seasonal bubble, there will be more of corporate mentality, and technical innovations will be valued over the habits of early adopters. Cryptos will get organized marketing of better quality. Cryptos won't be the oddballs of the financial world, where respected financial advisers consider them as taboo. The subject of cryptos will be publicly discussed with serious analysis. Till then, there were mostly only articles that were radically pro or against cryptos, now we will see more neutrality in public discussions. This in turn will start to raise the subjects of the future perspective of PoW mining, and the practical usability of fixed coin creation. This post was created on intent to be quoted in the future. Here is some inspirational music if needed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVP6uaiJvSQHave fun and good luck! Interesting. Any particular trigger you think is likely to start off the upwards momentum? |
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It's been my signature since July.
Poor zimmah :C
Oh well, things didn't turn out as expected. Sad indeed, but I still think we will soon see improvement. I think things are coming along nicely. I buy a few more coins each month during this accumulation phase. I have moved a 5% of my overall portfolio into cash ('waiting on the sidelines') in case we get a sudden dip into 3xx territory again in a final capitulation-retest-the-low type scenario. I am sure others are thinking the same and therefore it may not materialise. Sentiment is terrible, bears/trolls are all over the forum spreading doom, people are variably bored and/or chucking in the towel and selling. At the same time bitcoin infrastructure, VC funding, merchant integration and simple webwallet services are surging ahead of user adoption. I think the market is working through the aftermath of two bubbles in a very short space of time. Who knows whether we bubble up again and retest the ATH soon or if there is a false start or two to go. My vote is on an ETF driven bubble prior to the next halving in early 2016. The longer we stay in this range the better anyway. |
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Could you elaborate on that further? That sounds interesting.. |
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we have done a great deal of research and of course as hackers we want the bitcoin to succeed, but its chances have gone by. we can no longer support a system where over 50% of the currency is in the hands of US government. the around 40% in the hands of big speculators and manipulators and 10% in the hands of the real users.
it is a speculative bubble that is about to collapse at this very moment.
Activity 18. Another ignore! |
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All we can do is remember because it will not happen again. Bitcoin speculation hit a frenzy last fall because of China and merchant adoption, but there is no longer any fuel left in the tanks.
Try harder you cretin. |
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so that stop loss at 488 get triggered newbie? or you close before that big buy this morning?
Quite. You can be darned sure that no one predicting the demise of bitcoin has any other motivation than acquiring lots for themselves at a lower price. |
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Possible? Definitely! If you asked people in February 2013 if it was possible or probable that Bitcoin was worth $1000 in December 2013, they'd send you straight to the loony bin! But it happened. A crazy increase! And a 4- or 5-fold increase over the course of more than a year is possible with Bitcoin!
This is exactly why it WON'T happen. Most people bought bitcoin in February 2013 or earlier because merchant adoption hadn't happened yet, and there was a lot of hype about it happening and bitcoin going mainstream soon after. Those early adopters wanted to see what it was all about, but deep down didn't expect huge gains and were just interested in the potential. Most of them just tested the waters by investing a few hundred dollars at most. Now all we hear is, "When will bitcoin hit X amount of money?" "Should I go all in?" There is nothing particularly interesting to look forward to anymore. There was a lot of support behind bitcoin in 2013, but now the momentum is gone. Yes, there is the ETF, but that is not a bitcoin development, it's just another way for people to invest. But if they wanted to invest, they would have already invested! Now, it's just become a get rich scheme. The public has decided they don't need bitcoin, so now it's a bunch of bag holders with big dreams and nothing to back it up. $1,000 will never happen again, my friends. It's over! Bitcoin is an incredible emergence. In spite of its technical elegance and originality it is still a form of money. Most people have invested fiat money to obtain bitcoin money with the knowledge that it will probably be worth more in the future. That was true in the early years when bitcoin lacked utility, just as it remains true now. Looking back through old forum threads people like you have been announcing the end of bitcoin since 2011. You were wrong then and you are likely wrong now. Bitcoin at $1000 dollars will never happen again? LOL. Tell that to the VC's pouring hundreds of millions into bitcoin right now. Tell that to the huge companies, merchants and payment processors integrating bitcoin this year. A small number of bitcoins trade on exchange to determine the price. Supply will be constrained by the block halving in 2016. The exchange traded fund COIN will open up bitcoin to a vast swathe of capital seeking gains in a ZIRP to infinity environment. Looks like a perfect storm to me - it is not a matter of if there will be another bubble, simply when. A relatively small amount of capital can start the next bull run at will. My guess is that once the SEC leaks the opening of COIN to insiders we will see some major volatility on exchanges followed by a few months of incredible growth as a new asset class enters the investment world. No not exciting at all you tiresome troll.. |
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haha you people are funnier every day
price keeps falling and falling and everybody lose money and still you say its all right and going to be okay
A lot of people around these forums got into bitcoin way before it was worth even $100. Price will downtrend for a while as adoption increases by merchants and people buy stuff with their BTC causing a selling pressure. Once enough merchants accept it and offer discounts etc then demand will increase and the purchasing power of bitcoin will increase. If you're losing money you're clearly new and more worried about your current fiat wealth than understanding the long term wealth accumulation of holding bitcoins, even if just accounting for the inflationary state of central banking systems and the rapidly increasing US monetary base. I'm a Bitcoin supporter, but in pure inflationary terms, given the current projections, Bitcoin's production rate won't drop below the US Dollar's inflation rate until sometime in 2020, which is 6 years away. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0Sure, other currencies of the world may inflate faster, and something could even happen to the US dollar in that time, inflating it more quickly (though the EU seems to not want to let that happen right now). The overall adoption rate of Bitcoin may also continue, increasing Bitcoin's demand and value regardless of inflation, like you said. But as a pure play against inflation, Bitcoin may not be the place to be right now. By that logic it wasn't the place to be in 2009. Oh the inflation. Bitcoin's rising value has easily outstripped its rate of inflation since inception. Who in their right mind invests in bitcoin as a pure play against inflation!?  |
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It is a threat to bitcoin. But it will get the great unwashed used to the concept of using their phone as a wallet. It could end up bringing more users into the bitcoinsphere.
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What is driving the market, right now. During the last downturn it was pretty clear that a mixture of fear and TA were spot on. However, TA doesn't seem to be so applicable outside of a rout. So, what the hell is really driving the price, here. Is there some bad news we don't know about because there seems to not only be good news coming out, but less than priced in good news.
What was "driving the market" between end of 2011 and end of 2012?  Mostly price stagnation, and when there's finally a decent rally (to $16), it gets dumped back to half of that. And keep in mind, at that point, the "ATH" was $32, by that time about 1.5 years in the past. Sorry, but "stagnation" sounds more like description, rather than explanation What was driving the stagnation? Would it be too tinfoil to suggest that it was coins, stolen from MtGox, sold gradually? Not sure I agree. I understand the desire to read the market in more fundamental ways, to understand "reasons" for price movements, but most of the time, that line of reasoning goes back to fundamentals and news - and that, in my experience and opinion, misses a big part of what actually drives the market more than half the time. Anyway, I'm sure there is a narrative for the stagnation period of 2012 that is slightly more explanatory. In essence: necessary consolidation after an extremely volatile period ($1 -> $32 -> $2), together with the fact that no "real world" events took place that were strong enough to overcome that market sentiment (like: Argentinians decide big time to use btc as an inflation hedge). As for a possible (partial) explanation of the current stagnation, see my point below... Plus, while I don't have the tools to test this hypothesis, I consider it completely possible that a price suppression regimen is in place, by large accumulating entities (i.e. buying off-exchange at roughly market price, selling a portion on-exchange to suppress market price, repeat). I know it's what I would do if I would plan to buy in to the tune of 100k coins now.
I suspect it can't be done for long. OTC market, just like exchange market, has its own depth chart, it's just invisible. Big OTC purchases would drive OTC price up. OTC market would run out of cheap coins. And miners would start arbitraging: Sell 100K coins off-exchange to suppressors for $550, bought them back from them on-exchange for 500$, rinse, repeat I don't claim I believe with certainty that this is going on, I am submitting that, if a large enough entity (or several) would plan to buy large amounts of coins, and have some patience, this would probably a scenario worth exploring. In terms of tax efficiency, waiting for the ETF would probably be the better choice, but in terms of price control, the method I described would in principle beat a fund that is, ultimately, positive feedback linked to the markets. I disagree that miners would prevent this taking place. No disrespect to miners, they're the backbone of the network, but amateur miners seem to be not necessarily the most economically rational actors. Go look around in this forum how often the fall for the fallacy: 'It's sunk cost anyway, I'll let my outdated miners run as long as they produce coins', and how often more economically minded users need to tell them that the actual calculation needs to be based on total cost of future production of coins (mainly: energy costs) vs. number of coins bought at market for the same costs. Larger mining operations are undoubtedly much more economically savvy, but I've argued over and over again that I believe that, with the increasing "professionalization" of Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, short-term profit opportunity will probably outclass long-term speculative investment. In other words: large miners sell more than they hold, especially considering that we are currently nowhere near a new uncontested bull market (which means the ratio of sold vs. held coins can change if the market sentiment changes, and miners might hold more than they sell if they feel it's a sure thing price will go up.) Finally, we have plenty of evidence that public market price as determined by on exchange trading is a major reference point for off exchange transactions (just one example: the SR coin auction, where every party that spoke on it refered to "the market price" as if it were the obvious metric). Binding a large mining operation to you in a mid to long-term contract, maybe even offering a premium (although, from hearsay, I've only heard of large holders being made sub market offers, off exchange), then using some fraction of the coins to strategically depress price, would seem like a very good strategy to me, and relatively risk free: if it works, market price stays low, and accumulation proceeds at a low cost. If it fails, and price refuses to be depressed, the account value of coins gained so far appreciates, which is a sweet little consolation price. Arbitrage by miners could throw a spanner in the works of this mechanism, but profits would be comparably marginal: the goal of the accumulator is not to destroy the on-exchange price, just to keep a lid on it. For the arbitreur miner, the reward is small (sold his coins at market price, is able to buy them back slightly below perhaps), and more importantly: for the large operations, the initial problem would re-appear - what to do with a large amount of coins, when you in reality prefer to hold USD (by my assumption that professional mining operations are short-term opportunistic, and not long-term married to Bitcoin success). It's a tragedy of the commons style scenario: presumably, miners would be better off selling directly on the exchanges, since the higher volume generated there would ultimately drive up price, but individually, they fear the risk of lower profits because of increased selling pressure on exchange, so they seek arrangements off exchange. I'll say it one more time: The above is (motivated, I think) speculation. I make no claim this is necessarily happening. I only point out that I believe it is a possible, maybe even probable, mechanism taking place, accounting - at least partially - for the current stagnation period. Interesting Both interesting and extremely likely. We know that at least one bank was planning to bid for US marshalls coins. Oda says the goal of the accumulator is to keep a lid on prices. But if you think about it, it is possible to actually depress exchange prices with enough selling power if you are not seeking profit. In fact in such a thin market a bad actor such as a rogue central or private bank could easily both build a large % of bitcoin holdings OTC whilst simultaneously attacking the price on exchange with coordinated technical selling. |
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Maybe its some users bot in some attempt to control the market, no rules against using bots. Volume is looking sweet.
This bot is operating with 0% fees, or else it wouldn't make any sense. So, it's operated by BTC-E's "inner circle". Or this bot is bugged and operator is sleeping. Maybe other bot knows how to exploit. Since the volume is slightly decreasing,.. this could be true. Yeah, I don't think it makes sense to just switch on a bot that miraculously kickstarts your volume up so you're the biggest exchange volume wise just over night! That looks so suspicious, they gotta know it doesn't make sense! This has made perfect sense, with other exchanges following the Chinese exchanges with the same kind of fake volume. Don't underestimate the stupidity of an average bitcoiner But wouldn't they rather opt to "fade in" that bot over a week, month or so? This just is apparently something going awry, most likely some bot gone awry or an insider-bot creating fake volume! Just makes that exchange even more shady! No need, because most of the bitcoiners can't see the truth even if it's staring them right in the face. This thread is a perfect example for that. Anyway, they switched it off for now. Let's see if they tune it a little and switch it back on. Given you despise bitcoin and its proponents so, I am surprised you are still gracing us with your presence MP. |
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So let's call out everyone that said they were buying if we dipped to $480.  Why buy now, according to fallling we can have free coins sooner rather than later. You do realize that falling has been the one voice of reason among a bunch of permabulls here who in concert scream "buy more and hold because loosing money is great and the price will surely go back up"? Perhaps with the right major crisis the nations will accept the GNU World Order but I don't see that as likely. Now consider this: * LTC is traded at $4.855 * The total supply of LTC will be 4 times that of BTC. Thus, the price LTC should be 1/4th of the fair price of a BTC * 4.855*4 = $19.42  Fake doom mongering trolls aren't a voice of reason. This is a btc thread and forum. |
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lets break $470 quickly it might yo yo there and back once or twice... damn it! I know it is your thread Adam, but do you have to quote it? |
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There's no reason for this drop, I didn't see any bad news recently...
There has been no fundamental reason for any recent weakness. It is either manipulation of exchange prices by selling (whilst simultaneously buying OTC) or simply a lack of buyer side demand in the face of continued miner sales. I expect the price to meander up and down until people on here expect nothing, then once bitcoins have been wrestled from weak hands into strong, the price can rise up again. That could happen next month, or it could be a long wait until the next block halving, or never! My only concern is that of a rogue player (say a central or private bank) deliberately trashing the technicals of the bitcoin price on exchange to try and stop user adoption breaking out. That is, stop the next bull run which would draw in new blood, attracted by the price rises.. |
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There seems to be far more people screaming 'sell now or you'll loose everything' than bulls around, certainly on here anyway.
I don't even count people like fallling or dump3r, if that's who you have in mind. I have them on ignore, as they're barely literate. Among the literate, non-trolling posters, yes, I do believe the majority is too optimistic for the short term. Keep in mind, I replied to a post by schickeria who complained that in a market like this (consolidation at best, continued bear market at worst) posts like Klee's "Bears never gonna learn" start sounding delusional. I agree with that, even when I'm long-term extremely optimistic for Bitcoin. I guess its all about timeframes. 'Bears never gonna learn' if you think in years and look back over the charts. In the short term, then i would agree it sounds a bit farfetched. The thing about bubbles is they aren't usually well anticipated by market participants at the time, though it is obvious in the rear view mirror. All it would take to get every bear on here buying back in is some market positive news with associated heavy buying (gabi, etf, google integrating bitcoin into a wallet, amazon or ebay directly integrating btc) to shove the price up past 680 into the 7xx's. Then suddenly the bottom was obviously in at 33x. Or we could dive down again. Either way I will accumulate further.. |
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Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).
Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.
No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.
[...]
The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.
Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw. There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction: (a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and (b) that the only ones actually deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively). (don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)It made sense to be a bear when the price was +900 USD and trolls screamed buy buy, but now when we are at the bottom, it doesn't make sense. Anyways, it is your choice. Assuming that we're at the (absolute) bottom is your choice, just as well. And, to be honest, I still hear a lot of screaming "buy now or you'll miss the train". In fact, more than before perhaps. Which was exactly schickeria's point by the way (if I understood him correctly). What you call "bears" are, often enough, more cautious traders/investors. They will eventually get back on board, if there's a clearer sign that we're back in rally territory. Them staying cautious now is kinda understandable then, no? Also, to be clear on this: I'm not advocating selling now if you're planning to only make a trade once or twice a year. Entry prices of mid, maybe high 400s are probably safe for the coming months, on average (as in: even if we dip back into that region, I doubt we'll get stuck there). But I also sneer at the idea that the next "bubble" is just a month away. The market is still absolutely shaken. We either consolidate for another few months at least, with a weak upwards trend at best, or, maybe preferably, we take another plunge down. (I say "preferably", because a really dramatic crash could bring out the fiat sitting on the sidelines, and get some volume back into the market.) There seems to be far more people screaming 'sell now or you'll lo ose everything' than bulls around, certainly on here anyway. Every day the price fails to bubble weak hands leave the market and coins are redistributed to those who are prepared to wait. There is no sign of a bubble right now, but a month in bitcoin is a very long time.. |
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I just invested my life savings into Bitcoin
i still notice much of this kind of sentiment. i think we may see some real despair before this market turns around. the bulls are resilient, holding on tight, and yet, for 8 months we've been unable to cross increasingly lower upside resistances. the price is being held up by a lack of sellers -- but more apparent is the absence of $$ inflows. if this continues (and it looks like it will -- we just took a shot at a reversal on the 1-day chart and it's failing), a lot of people are going to be in a lot of pain in the coming months. Not me. The lower it goes the more coins I get for my fiat. that's true. personally i love it. i took my initial investment out very long ago. i just keep half in cold storage and trade the other half. cheap coins, baby. might even be able to catch some more margin call coins..... but the people in pain, imo, are the weak bubble chasers who bought at 700, 800, 1000.... and either don't have the funds or the follow-through to average down. and frankly, i can understand being very afraid of averaging down in the current market. when has bitcoin ever seen a bear market this long? 2011 chart is brutal in % lost, but the 2014 chart looks like a trip to zero on the back of a snail... You are aware the price hit 3xx several months ago and is significantly higher now? Everyone has had ample opportunity to average down..several times! |
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Big banks with active trading desks often produce documents helping members of the general public to know which direction the price of a commodity is moving in the future. Trebles all round!
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I was thinking that the bitcoin price action is becoming dull too. A few months of this boredom to legitimise the currency at this price and it can leave it behind in the next bubble.
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just saying we are more likely dropping back to $3xx than up to $700
Any reasonable explanation for dropping back to $3xx? Or, just trolling ? The problem with someone like fallling is that he thinks if the price falls to $3xx he will buy. But he wont. He would be scared of further falls. Not that it matters. Other than a market manipulated flash crash why would the price drop to $3xx right now? More likely to ramp upwards. |
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