فكرة جيدة اخي هيوج, ففي النهاية لا يوجد مخلوق على الوجه الارض لايريد الكسب, الرهان على العملات البديلة من وجهة نظري يجب ان يكون على العملات التي لديها ماركت كاب ضئيل جدا, مع الاخد في الحسبان ان كامل المبلغ الذي تستمره فيها يمكن ان يختفي بين ليلة وضحاها, طبعا في الحالة الاخرى هي ان المبلغ يتضاعف اضعاف المبلغ الاصلي.

السبب وراء صعود العملات البديلة الناشئة اكثر من البتكوين هوا ببساطة الحجم السوقي لتلك العملات, فمثلا حجم سوق البتكوين هوا اكثر من 100 مليار, يعني لكي يتضاعف سعرها يجب ان يدخل سوقها 100 مليار اخرى, بينما عملة قيمتها السوقية 5 مليون, كل ماتحتاج له هو دخول 5 مليون لكي تتضاعف, يعني لو تم استتمار مبلغ 50 مليون في اسبوع واحد (وهو مبلغ بسيط نسبيا) سيتضاعف سعر هده العملة 900% ان استتمرت مبلغ 50$ سيصبح 500$.

طبعا يجب النظر الى الجانب الاخر وهوا انه لكي تفقد مثلا نص استتمارك يجب ان يغادر سوق البتكوين 50 مليار وهوا مبلغ ضخم جدا وصعب الحدوث, اما في العملة الاخرى التي قيمتها 5 ملاين, ربما يكون هناك شخص واحد يمتلك نصفها وعندما يبيعها يقل استتمارك النص! يعني الخطر بمقدار الربح, لذلك يجب ان لا تستتمر في عملة واحدة, ولاتكون سلة عملاتك كلها في نفس المجال.

مثلا الترند الصاعد السابق كان لعملات ال Defi يعني لو استتمرت في 10 عملات خاصة ب Defi فانت هنا تغامر بكل اموالك بنجاح او سقوط سوق ال Defi كامل, وهده نقطة يجب الحذر منها, يجب الاستتمار في عملات مختلفة مبنية لاهداف مختلفة.

يوجد قناة ل Ivan on Tech على اليوتيوب يناقش فيها العملات البديلة ومشاريعها ويلخص لك الكثير, ومن ثم يأتي دورك في البحث العميق واتخاد القرار بالاستتمار او لا, فقد تذكر ان كل ماتستتمره في هده العملات يمكن ان يتضعاف 5 مرات ويمكن ان يختفي في ليلة وضحاها, بينما الاستتمار في البتكوين اقل مكسب واكثر اماننا من جهة الخسارة.

الحل الوسط في الاستتمار في هده المرحلة هوا المراهنة على الاثيريوم, نظرا لان 90% من العملات الصاعدة مبنية عليها, والحجم السوقي للاثيريوم يعتبر كبير بانسبة لتلك العملات ( اقل خسارة في حالة الهبوط) وصغير بانسبة للبتكوين ( اكبر ربح في حال الصعود), وفي حال نجاح الانتقال لاصدار الاثيريوم 2.0 فأعتقد ان سعرها سيتجاوز ال 1000$, طبعا في حال فشلها يمكن للسعر ان ينخفض انخفاض دامي.

الاهم من الصبر هوا وجود الموهبة والامكانيات, موضوع ايجاد الثغرات معقد جدا حتى من الناحية الاقتصادية, الاشخاص الذين يمتلكون الخبرة الكافية للخوض في هدا المجال قد يجنون اموال اكثر بتسخير امكانياتهم في بيع خدمات البرمجة عبر مواقع ال Freelancing بدلا من استتمار الوقت في ايجاد الثغرات, طبعا في حال وجدث ثغرة كبيرة في موقع مهم قد تتحصل على قيمة مالية لايمكنك كسبها بالطريقة العادية حتى في سنة, ولكن الامر اشبه بالرهان.

وبناء على هدا فأن معظم من يسعون وراء ايجاد الثغرات يكون لديهم وقت فراع اصلا, اما الاشخاص المشغولين باشغال اخرى فهم لايمتلكون الوقت لغير ذلك, وهدا طبعا يتيح فرصة اكبر "للمغامرين" الذين يكرسون كل وقتهم او جزء كبير منه لايجاد الثغرات.

Try using a different browser or hit Ctrl+F5, this should bring the miner status page up, go directly to this link http://192.168.x.xxx/cgi-bin/minerStatus.cgi

if that doesn't work then you need to provide more details and screenshots.

I don't see it as such, simply put, the government has easier and more efficient ways to do that, I am not talking about free countries where people are actually protected by the constitution, many countries like Venezuela and my country can make laws which override any existing constitution, if that doesn't work, they can easily modify the constitution to fit their goals.

Venezuela just like any other country, they don't want to miss the train, if the whole world was 100% centralized and we didn't have these geopolitical issues bitcoin would have been dead a long time ago, just imagine all major countries agree to ban bitcoin for good with 10 years or lifetime for those who buy/sell/mine bitcoin, but luckily even the large banks aren't really working together.

It is too late for any government to hurt bitcoin, we now are in times where governments can only benefit from BTC, or simply watch it grow, Venezuela's government wants a piece of the cake, without controlling miners it gets hard for them to track miner's earnings, my guess is that they just want miners to PAY them.

Of course, this isn't something you can lie about, there isn't much a pool can do to cheat, the bitcoin ecosystem was designed in such a way that that nobody trusts anybody else, a pool owned by a government is no different to a pool that is owned by anybody else as far as mining is concerned.

You would have to sell your services in packages, the 4.5 cents Kwh is just a pretty rough figure for your clients to know how much they are paying, but then you would have to price every miner based on its power consumption, for example:

S9 > 14 TH > 1250w = (1.25kw*0.045$*24H) = 1.35$ daily
S9 > 12 TH > 1050w = (1.05kw*0.045$*24H) = 1.134$ daily

Obviously, you would want to limit the options you offer to perhaps 3 profiles per miners, so if you have a total of 5 different models you would have a total of 15 packages to sell from, this will work only if you don't allow the owners to remotely access the miner and modify the mining profile, if you want to give them access then you will have to use a meter, some PDUs like DaveF explained, but this will be treated differently.

You would have to force your clients to buy a fixed number of spots, for example, 1 PDU is good for 10 miners, then they have to buy your host service in batches of 10s, 15 won't work, 9 won't work either, if you don't do that, you will encounter an extra set-up cost as well as extra operational cost.

This doesn't seem like a matter of choice, does it?

the article you referenced says:


Small mining farms and home miners might get away with this, but if you own a med-sized mining farm then hiding that from the government is going to be a difficult job and involves a ton of risk, so my guess is that all large miners in Venezuela will end up joining that pool.


Given the size of the hash power coming in form Venezuela, and if there is going to be any "corruption" it wouldn't matter to bitcoin as a whole, plus, I think the reason for doing this is to tax those miners, miners in countries like the U.S do report their taxes, the government knows that and they don't have to track everybody's shares/hashrate, the government of Venezuela apparently doesn't trust the miners to honestly report their income, and this isn't a matter of something they can fix in a day or two, not even a decade thanks to the long-lasting corruption, so if you can't convince people to report their earnings, simply force them to mine on a single pool.

لم تقم بتحديد نوع الكروت ولا الاستهلاك الكلي, ولكن مبدئيا وبالمتوسط نحسب ان الكرت يستهلك 150 وات يعني ان 4 كروت تحتاج الى 600 وات, طبعا في حالة اقتناء باور 650 وات ستكون تستهلك 100% منه وهدا غير صحيح ثقنيا, لذلك الاقرب سيكون 750 وات, وسعره 120$ في امازون
https://www.amazon.com/EVGA-Modular-Warranty-Supply-210-GQ-1000-V1/dp/B017HA3RGE/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&qid=1497554304&sr=8-2&keywords=evga%2B1200&linkCode=sl1&tag=buriedone-20&linkId=3cbdb84157acff5f2c52a6ad384335ee&th=1

ولكن ان اردت نصيحتي قم بشراء 1000 وات, بارغم من ان سعره 195$ الا انه قادر على تشغيل 6 كروت بكل ارياحية, ونظرا لانه يمكن ان تطور من كروتك في المستقبل سيكون تغير الباور سبلاي مكلف جدا على عكس تغير المودر بورد او اضافة رايزر مثلا, فباور سبلاي 1000وات سيكون ممتاز للوقت الحالي وللمستقبل, ولك حرية الاختيار, ان كنت لاتنوي التوسع فيمكن اقتناء 750وات.

Your ambient temperature could have been causing that,  but that is unlikely since 12c is within the normal temperature range, what i think happened is that the heat from the second miner probably caused the heatsinks in the bad miners to stick well and fixed the loose contact they had with the chips.

This probably won't last long, it's like all the other temporary solutions, if returning the unit is an option, you should go for it.

True, the larger the market cap the harder it is to move to either direction, this the reason why coins with smaller market cap outperform BTC in bull markets.

Market cap = 100k, if you add 100k that is a 100% increment
Market cap = 1,000,000 , needs 1,000,000 to do 100%

I am not saying that we will maintain the same base and ratio but going up has no limit.

1st bull run:

Oct 2010 - June 2011
0.1$        - 32$             > 351,000%

2nd bull run:

Nov 2011 - Nov 2013
1.92$       - 1050$       >60,000% (17% of the first run)

3rd bull run

Aug 2015 - Dec 2017
200$        - 20,000$    >10,000% (16% of the second run)

Speculation:

Jan 2019 - Dec 2022?
3000$     -  70,000$  > 1600% (16% of the third run)

Sounds too far stretched?  Maybe, but remember according to the math I did in the first post, we only need 80k by 2032, which means 10 more years, given that fiat money loses it's value to almost everything that has any sort of limited supply.

one more thing to keep in mind that Bitcoin isn't the only coin miners can mine, those coins grow in value as well, they help keep the mining industry large enough for newcomers.

The halving has little to nothing to do with price, the trading volume alone is many times the total new supply, in fact even if we were to mine what's left in a year it's the only 2.6M BTC against the existing  18.4M BTC, I have explained in details why the effect of bitcoin halving is minor on price (will try to find the topic and paste it here), so now that we got the halving-price relation thing out of the way, let me explain to you why do I think that bitcoin will MOST likely hit 80k in 2032.

Since you mentioned Gold, Gold has a market cap of 9 trillion dollars, let's pretend that in 2032 all 21 million bitcoins are in circulation including the ones we lost for good.

21,000,000*80,000 = 1.6 Trillion $ ONLY.

Keep in mind that by the time we get there, banks would have probably printed a few trillion dollars and brought the value of fiat even lower, which makes 1.6 trillion $ in 12 years from now pretty much doable, in fact, easily doable.

I think a much larger market cap is possible for bitcoin, less than 8% of the world population own bitcoin, I believe this counts those who own a single satoshi on their addresses, fiat supply is incredibly large - it makes bitcoin market cap seems like a drop in the ocean, bitcoin market cap (117B) is almost equal to Jeff Bezos's capital alone which is 113B, a 100 billion $ is peanuts as far as the world economy is concerned,
if 10 rich people invest 10% of their money in bitcoin - that alone will take it to 20K in no time.

Again, I am not claiming that I am right and you must be wrong, since we both are "speculating" the price of bitcoin in the future, we both can be wrong, I guess let's wait for 12 years and come back to this topic to see who had the better guess for the future.

I don't want to sound mean but how exactly are you going to "reduce the Carbon footprint" and save the "beautiful and wonderful home, we call Earth by reducing a 300w consumption which is 1- unnecessary the well-being of planet earth 2-increases the usage of carbon which is caused by some of the mining activities.

Even if I was to think of this as a significant improvement, it doesn't change a thing, miners moving from a pool that runs on regular power to your solar-based pool reduces the power consumption by exactly 0, it's not like those pools are going to shut down because we moved to your pool.

I am not against "green earth" but I can't see how that is relevant to a pool which makes its money from miners who could be using Coal-burning power plants which makes 65% of the total power energy in China, and given that the majority of miners are in China, it's safe to assume that at least half of them run their miners on Coal-burning power plants, 38% of the world power generation comes from Coal-burning power plants which mean a good portion of the rest of the world's miners also participate in generating carbon dioxide.

My advice, promote your pool by focusing on other factors such as fees and payment method, if it's PPS, do you have any pool reserves? how much is it? non of these essential information exists on your pool's website.

You make perfect sense, many things in these miners are hard to be explained because they don't make sense, but I have personally had issues that did seem to be PSU related and ended up being hash boards related, I initially thought of it the way you do now, it's pretty simple, the control board controls both the PSU and the hash boards, so any power related issue must be PSU or control board, but well, shit happens.

I encoured a similar power issue on a T17, I don't remember the exact error in the kernel log, but it was "power xx error", I tried a working PSU and a working control board and that didn't fix it, I played with the hash boards and the miner worked, it turned out that one of the hash boards was causing the issue, the miner worked perfectly with 2 boards.

What I did next was installing that "bad" hashboard on another T17, and guess what? it worked without an issue, I installed the hash board which I took out from the second T17 on the first T17 and it worked as well! do I have a technical or scientific explation for this? No, and i am sure even Bitmain themselves don't.

This isn't the case, the "inevitable" can be delayed to as far as a hundred years, it really isn't a matter of opinion or a thought, it's pure math.

Let's run the math for 13 and 33 years from now

Year 2020, bitcoin block reward  = 6.25    > total reward in fiat  = $62500 when price = $10,000
Year 2032 , bitcoin block reward = 0.78125> total reward in fiat = $62500 when price = $80,000
Year 2053 , bitcoin block reward = 0.0.0244141> total reward in fiat = $62500 when price = $2,559,996

Can bitcoin reach 80k in 13 years from now? very likely, can it get to 2.5M in 2053? maybe!

Mining gear manufacturers end only when at least one of two things happens.

1- They can't improve their mining gears efficiency

This takes away any incentives for miners to switch their mining gears for more profitable once, the network will be fully saturated and miners will start looking for a way to reduce their power cost instead of buying more efficient gears, those who fail to keep up with the low prices will have to leave the game and sell their miners to those who have cheaper power rates, all of this harms the manufacturers and they will be forced to close.

2- Mining rewards in fiat become too small

The point which you have explained already which depend ENTIRELY on the price of bitcoin and not the block rewards if we were to reach consensus to increase total supply and increased block rewards to 50BTC does that necessarily mean mining will be more profitable? no, because if bitcoin drops to a $100 the total mining industry will only generate $5000 a block, which is too small for everybody to sustain their businesses.

If bitcoin price drops to $1000 it will hurt gear manufacturers much more than the halving, so there is nothing that is going to happen in "a few more years" if the price keeps going up, I see that the end of those manufacturers will be the first point, and agree to what you mentioned here.


This is because technology is the limit, bitcoin isn't the limit, if the price keeps going up then the network will be able to accommodate more miners, and all they have to do is "make more gears of the same chip".

If bitcoin price doesn't increase, every halving will negatively affect commercial mining which will have a huge impact on the manufacturers.

To sum up:

You think industrial mining will die in a few years because of the halving, in other words, you are betting against the price of bitcoin. I think the opposite, I am betting on the price of bitcoin to go to much higher prices making the halvings near irrelevant for a few decades.

I am not in the U.S so I can't give you an accurate answer, but according to my knowledge 4.5 cents in the U.S is below the average, so I think the should be satisfied, although, I am not sure if YOU will be satisfied as well, I am not aware of your mining background but hosting mining gears isn't easy and there are other costs involved, adding that to your initial power cost might put you at loss, so I would run the math a hundred times before getting involved.

And by the way, phill is great resource for these kind of information and he is in the U.S so he would help you better.

Phill you should also consider cost per terahash, downclocking an S17 pro to 26w/th means you essentially paid a higher price, you pay $1000 for a used S17 pro which is supposed to do 54TH, you downclock it to 38th and then cost per terahash becomes  $26, so it's like paying $1421.

Compare that to S19 pro which is almost as efficient (29w/th) if you pay $3000 for it, then the cost per TH = 3000/110 = $27, so the price is almost identical, pros here: S19 is brand new, S17pro is used, cons: slightly less efficient.

Of course, this is based on $1000 vs $3000, which is just a rough estimate, if S17 pro goes for $800 and S19 pro $3800 then the maths will favor the S17 pro.

Wasn't this supposed to happen the past halving? or at least this is what many people thought, this makes the assumption that the next halving will be the end for those pool just as accurate, what was difficulty prior to the halving? 15T, and now? its at 19T and that's more than 25% increase when many people (including myself) thought we would go the other direction.

The halving is irrelevant when compared to price, 6.25 BTC at 10k btc is exactly the same as 3.125BTC at 20k, so only IF (and that's a big if) bitcoin price fails to breaks 20k by the time the next halving comes - then your assumption will be valid, but I am willing to bet against it.


IMO this won't happen the next halving, not even that following one, in 8 years from now all bitcoin has to do is double twice, 1.5625BTC for block reward and bitcoin price at $40,000 will make mining as profitable as it is now, and I believe that in 8 years, prices way greater than 40k are doable.

Would love to see a non-Chinese mining gear that can compete with the Chinese mining gears.

I still think it's more of a power-related issue, are you sure you tried a working PSU?

OP, if the miner isn't under warranty, open the PSU and give it a good dusting, and then remove two dashboards and keep only one plugged in, start with keeping chain 0 and then try, if the problem persists then remove chain 0 and install chain 1 alone, do this for the 3 boards, there is a good chance that one of teh hash boards is casuing this issue.

Also, you must try the obvious basic troubleshooting which is reset and flash a different firmware.

IMO if you can't compete with miners in China such as those in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia then making a profit, in the long run, will be quite difficult, miners in Sichuan have about 6 months (April to October) of about 1 cent per KhW, but I'd say the average year would be 3-4 cents for the majority of miners in China.

You might think that since the Chinese don't makeup 100% of the total hashrate and thus the average electricity cost is higher when considering other countries, well, the bad news is, there are many other countries with much cheaper power rate, such as Iran and most of the Middle-East countries, East-Europe has some very cheap rates, countries like Venezuela and Malaysia have even better rates.

Not being able to compete with those people in terms of electricity price puts you in great danger of losing money, people who paid 2.5-3k for S19 and mine at 5-6 cents are unlikely to ROI, let alone make a profit unless of course bitcoin price was to moon unrealistically, but in that case, you are better off buying the coin directly.

So how do you plan on getting us to billion users without using a second layer solution?

Increasing block size isn't the solution either, you have living proof of coins with 8MB blocksize such as BCH or even unlimited blocksize such as BSV, do these coins have more traffic and users than Bitcoin? the answer is NO, people paid an average of 50$ to interact with ERC20 contracts on ETH, they pay 10-20$ to send BTC, why would they do that when they can send it for almost free? heck, some coins have instant confirmation and close to 0 fees but nobody uses them.

This is a free market, users bet against each other and whoever wants to use it must pay for it, we barely have full blocks and some blocks go almost empty, we are not even close to a full maximation of blocksize.

Another factor that you need to consider is the blockchain size as a whole, why do you need a purchase of 1$ for your morning coffee to be written on a public ledger stored on thousands of computers, who is going to pay for it? this isn't just a matter of miners process transactions and then delet that block for good, thousands of people need to store it on their computers, storage costs money, if we have unlimited blocksize and fees go close to 0 then doors for transaction spamming will be wide open, eventually, the blockchain (which is already huge) will be way too huge for the average joe to run their full-node, and then it's only a matter of time until only large corporations can afford to run full nodes and this will take us back to the old monetary system where a couple of people sit in a closed room and decide what to do with bitcoin.

Also, receiving/downloading and propagating large blocks is a 1st world's privilege, the majority of people don't have fast enough internet to process huge blocks, so even those who can afford storage will suffer, miners across the globe will no longer be able to mine solo and 100% of the hashrate will be direct to 2-3 mining pools, 50-100 full nodes that are owned by 2-3 large companies and then you have the perfect centralized public ledger, exactly how banks and governments would want it to be.