I actually favor Alcaraz against Ruud quite a bit. I see it more as being a straight sets win than a drawn-out 5-setter.
It will probably be somewhere in between though, but I'd say Alcaraz quite easy in 4 sets.
I really hope he does win it, he deserves his no. 1 spot and his first GS tournament.
Did you watch Ruud in this US Open? Before this tournament I would tip on Alcaraz winning 3:0 with all sets taken comfortably. Don't know how he improved his game on hard surface so much, but Ruud looks much better at the moment. Serve and forehand were always good but now he added world class backhand and he is sliding and catching everything thrown his way. Ruud is usually very stable player and I see this match as Rudd playing his own game all the time with Alcaraz over-performing and under-performing in different parts of the match. Feel like we will se a lot of small turnarounds in this match but I really hope Alcaraz will win it in the end. He is much more entertaining too watch  |
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I've still got most of my options as per wide cards, triple and bench boost in place but, over the week after a very bad game week through GW3-GW6, of which most of it was due to maintaining my team out of indecision and procrastination, I finally get to make the changes and sacrifices 12points to get the players I needed in my team and was ready to watch them role before tragedy struck in the Queens death. Unfortunate indeed and as we pay our last respect in a boring week, FPL have given me another 1 free transfer and that could have been 4points saved. Perhaps another in the coming week and my 12points would just be gone for nothing.
Perhaps the free transfers might prove useful in future game weeks, to get Rodrygo when his injury free Perhaps.
Why didn't you use freehit chip after the news of postponement and FPL noticed were known? All chips used are given back this week as per their notice. Meaning you use free hit, remove negative points, and then get free hit back Of course that means you would not receive that additional free transfer so maybe it wouldn't actually help you in the long run. |
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@casperBGD znam da si ti bar bio uključen pa te možda zanima
I za kraj naravno, nisam financijski savjetnik, do your own research i sve to. Ja planiram dokupiti nešto SPS do tog trenutka, još nisam ništa.
slazem se, svako treba da uradi analizu pre ulaganja prestao sam da igram Splinterlands, ali pratim ekosistem, Hive je ekosistem sa najmanje prevara i prica o ceni tokena, a ima dosta razvoja bar meni, igra je daleko bolja od Axie npr., i pravilniji je razvoj, samo je problem vidljivosti u celokupnom kripto prostoru, da je na Ethereum-u ili BSC, SPS bi vec bio prisutan na Binance Nadam se da me je netko poslušao i bacio pogled na SPS. Hands down najbolji coin u mom portfoliu, od kada sam ga uzeo prije tjedan dana je već napravio nešto više od 30%. Dovoljno da mi se uključi prvi sell order. Sada ostatak na stake i čekam moon mirnog srca. Ako me ne ponese pa kupim i sam brdo kartica kada krenu RiftWatchersi. |
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To answer Trofo, no I took Jabeur on a +4.5 handicap and she lost with a 5 game deficit.
The commentators on Amazon Prime were saying Jabeur was suffering from nerves, hence
the dismal result of the first set.
I think many people including the audience thought and wanted a "closer" match. Well done
to Swiatek though, as they said she is a brilliant front runner and that was the case.
Did not watch the whole match, just second set but I don't agree with those commentators you listened to. Brilliant front runner would not have dropped break advantage twice and miss 2 championship balls before the tie break. That second set was swinging all the time and it could have ended just as easily for Jabeour. I am never betting counter handicaps against Swiatek, there isn't a girl on tour at the moment that can match Swiatek at 100%. Granted we got some weaker performances here and there, especially in the weaker tournaments but every time I am watching her play it is all about her. Main thing coming up in few hours, cant wait for it but I already know it will be a long match and there is no way I see it to the end and get to work tomorrow morning. Match is starting 10PM my local time and this could be another 5 setter for Alcaraz easy. I have bet on ALcaraz ML, since I can't believe Ruud can be no.1 no matter how much he improved his hard game And I have over games/sets on some other tickets. If I had to guess result I would say 3:2 for Alcaraz after almost 5 hours of great tennis. |
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That's right, I gave the calculation for independent events. The probability of getting a specific number in roulette is 1/37. Probability of getting a specific number 3 times in a row (1/37)3.
That would be true if roulette was a series of dependent events. When events are independent there is nothing that influences next spin, next spin does not "know" what was the number that was hit in first spin. Example. Spin one - probability to get any number 1/37 - 36 was hit Spin two - probability to get any number 1/37 - probability to hit 36 again - 1/37 - 36 was hit again Spin three - probability to get any number 1/37 - still same probability to hit 36 once more I now it sounds a bit strange at first. You can't chain events in roulette like you can in most card games. In card games deck gets shuffled and cards dealt, each card that gets drawn is removed from stack and you can count probabilities to get any card needed - like in Texas Holdem. In roulette there is no such dependency, wheel is spun with different speed and ball hit in other direction again with different speed every single time. |
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But the probability of three unrelated events repeating is equal to the product of the probabilities of their occurrence, right? So (1/37) 3=1/50653 The first time I played non-aggressively (martingale on white-red), and the second time, for reasons beyond my control, I made a mistake and received only $ 4.40, which I immediately lost  But I immediately decided to win back with my money and succeeded in this (however, I am unhappy because it was an emotional decision). Nope, that what you saying is the probability when events are related. If the events are not related you can't do math like that on them. Could be I am using wrong words to describe this statistical problem since English is not my main language and I never used it before to explain high math. Now you made me google the term and it seems that right word is probably independent. Only thing working towards your thesis is the low of large numbers but that is way more abstract and I never tried to calculate that, if it is even possible. |
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In the first series there is very little white, in the second red, and in the third an almost unbelievable thing happened - the number 36 fell out 3 times in a row! As I understand it, the chance of this event is 1 in 50,653.
It isn't, spins in roulette are not connected events, every spin is new event and probability for ball to land on any given number is always 1/37. That is one of the things people forget when using martingale and expecting that there will not be long streaks of red or blacks. I am playing those free spins quite aggressively and it worked good first time when I walked with 55$, not so good second time, I got just 3.5$. I am playing on Voisins Du Zero, and doubling tripling my stake any when it does not land For those of you who don't know that is a bet that covers 17 numbers (46% of the wheel) centered around 0. You have to bet at least 9 units cover this spread. |
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@casperBGD
But wow Leipzig, looks like manager getting fired doing the job for them (and glad I eased off betting against them, really enjoyed them losing in Europe)... while BVB the complete opposite. Bayern must be laughing and maybe even trying to be as sporting as possible to drop points in injury time at their rivals' results!
took two points last week, and this one would not be better, as it seems now, a lot of surprises yeah, Leipzig smashed Dortmund with new coach, it was obviously a good move from management with Schalke up against Bochum, it seems that Bochum will be happy to get any points this season, but they will be back to Zweite division in no time Dortmund had a lot of players missing today so I expected it will be though for them, went for 2:2 in the pool and BTTS on my ticket. Can't believe Dortmund couldn't score one goal today, what is worse, according to the stats they didn't even have goal scoring opportunities. Could be some profitable bets on Leipzig in following weeks. This will be another though match day to get points in Bundesliga, relinquished my top position for now. Damn, this was my best pool so far. |
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Was out all day so I did not have time to write here but I hope some of you have taken Swiatek to win today. Odds @1.6 for ML seemed like free money to me and I took it on couple of tickets. She is currently leading 6:2 2:0 and even though Jabeur is playing good tennis she can't really put pressure on Swiatek. Hope it stays that way, usually when I write stuff like this match turns in an instant |
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I had a bet on Milan ML and this is first time in a long time that I won bet on Serie A that wasn't my usual BTTS. If only I did not change my pool prediction from 1:2 to 0:2 it would be even better.
Lost my first ticket on Inter BTTS, mainly because of Handanović saves, Torino plays good football and I am expecting them to fight for European places this season.
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Yes, I agree. And I would say that such total cancellations really make me angry. I am not against formal gestures like a minute of silence that do not affect anything, but such a scrapping of familiar life for everyone who is not directly related to the queen is complete nonsense. It is like a reminder to the serfs of their place in life. The master said to grieve, so you need to grieve.
That is not even the biggest problem. There are many people that bought tickets for PL games and traveled from far to see their favorite team play. There was some guy on twitter saying that he flew from Australia with his son, a big United fan. It was supposed to be first time boy sees his favorite club play and they paid a shitload of money for tickets to get there. Don't know if that story is true but I am sure there is many similar out there. Too be fair maybe it is best to cancel all big happenings from simple practical point of view, I don't think rest of the world really understands how much of a stress on London traffic and institutions will this event have. I know I don't and I was quite surprised when reading related articles today. When I wrote about my anger, I meant such consequences too. For those who are close to the Queen, mourning is normal and won't affect their lives much, but for those who are far from those circles, the consequences can be severe (like that guy from Australia). And in general, it infuriates me that someone orders others how to grieve. I doubt that if there was a referendum, people would vote for such mourning. As far as I understood this situation, royal family did not demand postponement of PL or any other happenings like concerts. That was the decision of organizing bodies since they believed situation in a country is maybe too problematic organize everything without problems. As I already said, seems a bit unreal to me and I would like to hear opinion from somebody living in London. I was also surprised that Brighton had to postpone their match cause of railroad strike, seems like total nonsense if you don't know the context of getting to Brighton stadium and their rivalry with C. Palace. |
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They should have had a minute's silence at the most, no need to pointlessly cancel things. Do they think the British people are going to be beside themselves with grief or something? Most people couldn't care less about the queen or the monarchy. Personally I don't even think we should have a minutes silence for any deaths. Not only is it a completely hollow gesture but who gets to decide who is worthy enough for a minute of silence? They often have them for 'big' football players but I'm sure most others are forgotten. I remember when that Rhys Jones kid got shot and killed in Liverpool years ago and they had a minutes silence or round of applause for him at Everton. Well great, but how many other kids from Liverpool died that week that get nothing? If you're going to have them then have a minutes silence before every game for everybody else who has died that week. The queen isn't more important than anyone else and neither is a former professional football player.
I wonder if the Leeds game on Monday is cancelled too?
Yes, I agree. And I would say that such total cancellations really make me angry. I am not against formal gestures like a minute of silence that do not affect anything, but such a scrapping of familiar life for everyone who is not directly related to the queen is complete nonsense. It is like a reminder to the serfs of their place in life. The master said to grieve, so you need to grieve. That is not even the biggest problem. There are many people that bought tickets for PL games and traveled from far to see their favorite team play. There was some guy on twitter saying that he flew from Australia with his son, a big United fan. It was supposed to be first time boy sees his favorite club play and they paid a shitload of money for tickets to get there. Don't know if that story is true but I am sure there is many similar out there. Too be fair maybe it is best to cancel all big happenings from simple practical point of view, I don't think rest of the world really understands how much of a stress on London traffic and institutions will this event have. I know I don't and I was quite surprised when reading related articles today. |
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While on the NA, Team Felt was already out and they were the team that has to continue playing with just 4 members as one of them got disconnected.
Too make things even worse for them, they were firmly in the lead without about 13k gold lead and cruising towards victory. And of course I had Felt +1.5 @2.8 on my ticket so I felt the injustice of disconnect more personally this time. Same thing happened yesterday as well, we shall see whose turn to lose by technical error comes tomorrow. |
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What a start of this first semifinal between to quality players in the world Khachanov vs Ruud in first set both breaks serve two times, but fight back very quickly which is showing their commitment and quality which is essential for this Grand Slam after end of first set with the score of 6 - 6 Ruud won this by tiebreaker with the score of 7 - 5 look like it's going to be five set match as both are having good service and good returns entertaining match is going to be long both are fighting hard for place in final as now after many years we are going to have final without big three.
Second set started with Khachanov done good start after having score of 0 - 40 won his first game.
Ruud improved his game on hard court drastically since last season. He still isn't the best out there but he can run to almost any ball and he is solid with all his strokes. Still can't believe he has a chance to be no. 1 in the world if he gets further then Alcaraz here. Very interesting situation all around, if Ruud and Alcaraz loose today - Nadal is no.1. If one of them wins and the other looses, winner is no.1. I want to see Ruud - Alcaraz final and if we get it, then the winner of US OPEN becomes no. 1 as well. My money and sympathies go towards Alcaraz, he simply has that something that makes you wanna cheer for him. |
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I don't trust teams like Valencia and Sevilla, no matter how good form they are showing at that particular moment.
I do not trust Sevilla either, but regarding Valencia, they are mid table team last two years, so it is a bit hard to expect from them winning away matches often and yeah, it hurts if you are a fan, and expect more, but one has to be reasonable I don't mind if they are predictably bad and I can bet against them. Velencia is one of those clubs that can often snatch points when they are outsiders and loose them when they are favorites. And to make it even worse they do it in very unpredictable way. Have both to score in the game tonight but not really expecting it to hit. Just wanted to play something for low stake. |
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Really unfortunate for that Brighton postponement. That will be a though GW for me to navigate with 2 Brighton players in the team. What happens now? if the GW goes ahead, do Brighton players on FPL teams automatically receive 0 points or something? Man, people with triples and no wildcard available must be fuming rigth now, Potter gone and now the game's postponed  What else, your player did not play, 0 points for you. If I knew about that on time I would maybe prioritise Brighton transfers but it isn't that bad. At least Brighton has cheep players ao we can bench them. What if we get a postponement of all games which will make even bigger problems for our teams. I had 2 more game weeks to prepare for fixture swing and now I have no way to do so. I just hope games go on as planned, Brighton players not playing I can cover, but loosing 2 game weeks would give me a huge headache going forward. |
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Don't believe there will be any EPL matches this weekend going into late next week due to the monarch passing.
So they declared 10 days of mourning for the nation.
It wouldn't feel the same playing a game when you are in this state.
It wouldn't be proper so Chelsea's new manager Potter gets an extra week and a few days to prepare against Fulham.
Very sad state of affairs there now.
I just learned about the sad news a few hours ago. It's a trying time, but I never imagined it would affect sporting events in the nation. If it does, though, I think it's the right thing to do. As for Potter, I hope he uses this one week off to reacquaint the players with themselves because they all seem lost right now, and the Tuchel firing also had an impact on everyone. I was eagerly anticipating this weekend's matches in order to see if I could obtain 4-5 BTS picks. You are Chelsea supporter, so what is the true reason for sacking Tuchel? I heard he lost dressing room and respect from players when he ended his marriage after 12 years for some younger model. Then I hear Chelsea owner wanted Ronaldo and agreed everything with Chelsea and Tuchel stopped the transfer. Aperantly decison was already made and results were just excuse. If the games get postponed they get crammed somewhere else and we continue the league as per schedule. Meaning Chelsea will not play Fulham, they will play whoever is scheduled for the week we resume. |
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That'd leave us with not further activities at least until after the international break  May her iconic soul rest in peace, and long live the King! I mean it was really an unfortunate thing though so there is really nothing to do about it even if the officials decided to postpone it. So far I dont think that there is an official announcement regarding GW being postponed yet due to this right but we probably wont get anything this weekend but its still possible to have them back next week though Somebody wrote that football doesn't stop in this situation unless FA decides to stop it, some other guy on twitter wrote we will not have PL until after international break. At this point it is speculation, we will find out about it soon enough. Problem is that fixture congestion is already really high cause of World Cup and there is no space to reschedule these matches. I am sure Chelsea and Liverpool would not mind a couple of weeks break to consolidate. |
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Don't forget after such exciting games last few nights we are back in normal league action, beginning with La Liga.
Will Valencia continue their fine form and get another 3 points? Or will they shit the bed again for everyone of us?
Tempted to take BTTS at least or Valencia handicap but I need to wait a few more hours to get my insurance.
Hate that wait for insurance, tried to talk with Sportsbet so they make it once per day instead once per 24 hours. Meaning it resets let's say midnight every day. This way I am trying to start with insured tickets early on Saturday, then each consecutive day I lose a bit of time and then on Friday I don't use it to reset the timer. Bit too complicated but still such great promo. I don't trust teams like Valencia and Sevilla, no matter how good form they are showing at that particular moment. |
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What a Battle between Alcaraz and Winner. I was optimistic about the win for the Italian but in the end Alcaraz was seriously impressive with such shots.
Interesting this Is the second win on this surface for the spanish!
I think the match between the two players will become a "Classic" to see in the future.
Again a really nice battle between these two guys. They play really good tennis and Alcaraz took the win. Alcaraz also has an amazing chance to win the Us open and get the number 1 place in the world. Also Ruud can also take the first place and that to me is really wierd I watched last 2 sets from the match and it was really good tennis from both players. You can see that Alcaraz has higher ceiling but at the same time more ups/downs and tendencies to overdo shots and make unforced errors. Managed to catch odds of 5.5 on Alcaraz and still loose the ticket since I was greedy and paired it with another eSports match. Did not watch Tiafoe play this year at all so I am a bit clueless what to bet on their match, probably will go for over games. |
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