If/when we have a final capitulation, the price will stay higher than the low we have already had . . . It's psychology, support has been identified, and everyone will be racing to beat everyone else and buy before we dip to the support. If it coincides with a series of bad news, then maybe we would dip below, not likely unless a very specific set of circumstances arises.
While I do think that the low will probably be higher than our previous low, I disagree that "support has been identified". 1. The last two high volume days ended in 570 and 455, respectively. On bitstamp it was actually 560 and 380, a huge difference. There was no higher low, indicating a support. Instead, a possible downtrend is indicated. If you take april, on the other hand, there were three high volume crashes ending in 55, 50, and 78, confirming that a hard support had been found at 50. 2. The last bounce was influence by China. All exchanges were following btcchina when it suddenly started buying out thousands of btc. Now if the chinese exchanges get taken out, we don't know what'll happen. |
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Yes the last weak arm up before final capitulation is always fueled by a bunch of good news. Before, it was the May btc conference etc.
This time it's taking a bunch of good news AND the sudden artificial influence of China again, so we can see where this is going...
what good news was this? Overstock, various merchant adoptions and government meetings, bitpay buyout |
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Wall street (IF there is wall street) will probably wait for final capitulation, just like BIT/SecondMarket waited for $66.
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If anything is a bubble it is Facebook...
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Yes the last weak arm up before final capitulation is always fueled by a bunch of good news. Before, it was the May btc conference etc.
This time it's taking a bunch of good news AND the sudden artificial influence of China again, so we can see where this is going...
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I too, currently still have 4:1 leverage.
I know during the drop from $1242 they suspended margin for a day or two due to the volatility. So I suppose they raise and lower leverage on a whim to whatever suits their needs
That was funny they disabled margin trading when it was up in the 1000s, but had margin trading enabled during the entire drop from $800 to $455. I guess we can guage bitfinex's sentiment on bitcoin this way? |
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Do bitcoin profits count for taxes if you only have usd on an exchange but haven't withdrawn? Bitcoin is very risky - I could make another trade tomorrow and lose it all or the exchanges could shut down and run away with the funds, get seized, or get hacked, and I could lose everything that way. This type of exchange risk isn't there in the stock market. The money I have on exchange is like imaginary cloud money goxbux disneydollars etc that could all be lost - I don't see it as real money that I've actually made yet. So I don't think taxes should need to be paid anyway until you actually withdraw USD back to a bank. What do you guys think?
In fact I lost money from BitFloor - can I deduct that?
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I still have 4:1 leverage. It's based on account balance. Has your account balanced dropped lately?
Edit: Actually I don't see it in the options anymore, but it's still what I currently have.
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My awesome ms paint skillz.  |
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I think 50/50 is the only way to stay sane right now.
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Not really it just looks like low volume noise fluctuations.
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Most of the time I'm 50/50 or 60/40 but I go all in during crash bounces and bubble breakouts when it's obvious that a giant force is entering and driving the price up immediately. Actually in November I was all in with 200% margin.
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You guys are dreaming if you think the current price action is not unnatural and not 90% driven by China right now, and that China is a safe bet.
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There doesnt need to be a justification for the rise right now. Were simply going up "because china". Its a house of cards too.
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you're optimistic ! Even if you're right and bitcoin crashes, you have little chances to see your orders under 400 filled (so even if you're lucky you could end with almost no coins
Even if you're bearish you could think about what you would do if bitcoins doesnt go below 600 anymore (you would completely miss the boat)
I see what you mean. I should think about what happens if btc doesn't go below 600 anymore. Though, well, I really think it's way too high right now and below 600 should be probable. Thanks for the advice! You don't understand. I don't tell you it's not possible for the price to go to 250 (or 400, or 600), but you seem not to even think about the possibility of another scenario. In the summer when the price was at 65 many were waiting for 50 or 30 to buy. They bought at 110 or worse. Summer was horrible for me. I sold at 86, made some measly trades in the 60s/70s, made a small trade in the 100s, then finally threw in the towel and went long at 125... Since then I've learned a lot about trading indicators and the buy point now seems obvious. H4 MACD crossed upwards in the 60s. Lesson: don't rely on a set buy price. |
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no I am looking only at gox and it is 52+ million USD look to my post above and when I zoom out you see this  You must first multiply each *individual* bid with its price to get the USD value of each bid and *then* add the USD values. This screenshot you posted is doing it wrong. Its totally meaningless to add up the sum of BTC on the bid side. If that is the explanation for how the bid was wrong then what is the explanation for how the ask was wrong? |
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What is with the bid at gox? It just keeps going up. Who is depositing all this fiat at gox?
Edit: I think they just fixed i286 and I don't see that crazy bid and ask anymore.
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I've found that a crossed MA doesn't neccessarily tell me WHEN to buy but WHERE to buy. I don't need to buy or sell immediately as soon as they cross. Rather, if an MA crosses up, then next time the price approaches the MA, it is probably a safe bet to buy at the MA. Similarly, if an MA crosses down, then next time the price approaches the MA, it is probably a good idea to sell there. But if other indicators are also telling me that a large movement is imminent, I might not wait.
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Bid-wall re-placed to $795. I've witnessed this behavior in a falling alt-coin...
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I'm all in for cryptocurrency.
Putting money in a bank is against my principles.
If I cash out one day I will take cash, silver and gold.
Really, you have no money in a bank at all? How do you pay your bills. What if you need fiat money really fast? What if something catastrophic happens to the network and now you have absolutely nothing? |
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