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3581  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sexy casinos on: July 14, 2021, 09:45:03 PM
Wouldn’t that be distracting? Why not just go to a strip club and look for some fun on that dedicated place? I don’t think anyone goes to such a casino to play, but rather just to have some sexy time. It’s mildly annoying to play on an environment wherein someone waves their ass cheeks and boobs in front of you so that you will tip them. Perhaps some people want that and they prefer that, but I believe that a vast majority will agree that those two doesn’t go well together.

For some people sex, flirting, power and luck are somehow related in their brains by some connection that they probably develop as a result of the things that have happened to them in their lives. It is part of the human condition to attribute whatever we cannot explain to some mysterious forces in the universes, gods, karma or whatever beliefs. This is linked to a link between luck, sex and other things and for those having a sex related environment may trigger their interest in gambling rather than distracting them.5

3582  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sexy casinos on: July 14, 2021, 10:39:30 AM
I tend to take this things from a funny perspective. For example, an add with those big boobed girls reading "hold ´them" has many implication for the subconscious mind of the unaware  Grin

Whatever makes the game more fun is welcome. I think that businesswise, you can either go the elegant way or you can choose to be cheeky and each of those will bring different people. For me, a sexy casino would be more fun because I am more on the fun than on feeling like in a James bond movie. Some people may actually feel distracted, and as they say, not mix pleasure and business.
3583  Economy / Economics / Re: Permanent residence in El Salvador for crypto entrepreneurs on: July 14, 2021, 10:32:11 AM
..
Anyone from El Salvador can give any feedback about living costs and living situation in this country?

No, nobody from El Salvador can tell you about living conditions because the are on one or more of this categories:

- Too busy trying to go about their lives without being randomly killed in the streets.
- Too busy Working for a drug cartel.
- Too busy In prison.
- Too busy being members of a band that would rather not talk to you.
- Corrupt government officials Too busy getting bribes.

Please notice that you can find this quite mixed, e.g. a Corrupt government official working for a drug cartel in prison, belonging to a band and trying not the get randomly killed.

Apart from all this, the cost of living  is low, the climate is great and you can buy pretty much anything with money.

Have you been in that country? Because I don't think not all areas have that kind living conditions. Just like other 3rd world countries, which are being tagged as terrorist country or drug war killing country. But they also have very good tourist destinations. I don't think we need to confine a certain country to its negative aspect. They always have good ones to offer.

And it must be marvellous to go there, to a touristic area, just for a while, living in a bubble where you do not have to deal with the harsh reality of the country. Most Latin America has such a destinations and locations even in relatively violent cities. However, that does not speak of the country, but of the way things can be when you actually want to have peace for the tourism that brings in foreign currency.

You can also argue that Mexico City is marvellous because you got Colonia Roma and it is OK if you do not go to Doctores.
3584  Economy / Economics / Re: Singapore, the banking industry, and Bitcoin on: July 14, 2021, 10:26:05 AM
It is indeed one of the best hubs for innovation in general, not just for crypto innovation. Excellent market conditions, legal system, the largest and fastest growing market of the world (that´s China) right at their door and a system that produces competent professionals. The only handicap I can think of is the ridiculously high price of real state of any type. These conditions are difficult to match for other Asian countries and are very attractive for asset-light companies that do not require massive physical space, but rather a good ecosystem and legal environment.

Comparing Singapore with El Salvador is simply impossible. The only thing they share is being on the same planet.
3585  Economy / Economics / China is cranking on US capital rising for Chinese firms - mutual decoupling on: July 14, 2021, 10:20:57 AM
Until recently, Chinese firms were able to list on Nasdaq - not exactly as other companies, but still able to rise funds and gaining liquidity by doing so. A  large number of companies are "allowed" this type of listing. However, a couple of things are happening that draw a gloom path for the future.

Firstly, many companies are delisted for not meeting the requisites of NASDAQ. These requisites are not really thought, but there seems to be a strong cultural problem on how China understand the concept of rising capital compared to US. An average Chinese distrust anything that looks too good, or even minimally good. The listings are oftentimes based on inaccurate information (to say it softly). Not that many western companies do not ever lie - misleading information is all over - we are talking about plainly cooking the figures for sales, growth, etc...

Secondly and more recently, the Chinese government has taken direct actions on recently listed companies that have caused significant drops in valuation, directly burning any investor.

It seems that China is decoupling its economy from foreign funds, but also NASDAQ is de-listing when they fail to meet reporting and honest information requirements.

(source The Economist and other outlets).


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3586  Economy / Economics / Re: Green European funds may deal a blow to Tesla on: July 13, 2021, 11:01:40 PM
How is this connected to Doge or cryptocurrency though? Just because it's Tesla that's getting the greens means that it will have an effect to the cryptocurrency market? I think that it will somewhat affect but I don't think that it's going to be a big time effect. I am happy that they are subsidizing green energy in the continent because we need this right now or it will be too late.

I am not happy at how Elon used his twitter account to manipulate crypto. Perhaps he should dedicate more time to his own business now. I am just making him realise that... I mean, in the unlikely case he reads this post. I am also aware that some people do not follow that kind of stuff, for which I can only honestly congratulate them, as it is mostly useless manipulation and very close to a punishable action - that is, if the SEC ever cares about what Elon does under the argument of being DUI himself.
3587  Economy / Economics / Re: Understanding marketcaps and valuations on: July 13, 2021, 09:35:31 AM

Could we say that although Bitcoin's marketcap is way higher than what altcoins have, the real price of BTC could be less than its current price?

Since the impression it gives is that marketcaps are base on the bid price, it means that volume will really have to be considered when analyzing the technical analysis not just to Bitcoin/USD but to altcoins you trade.


Yes and no. Crappy answer.

In companies or crypto that have a significant float and significant trade volume (e.g. bitcoin), I would say that marketcap is quite in line with that total value of outstanding shares or coins, unless you try to sell many thousands of bitcoins in a day.

Companies with little float and little liquidity are the ones that may not be correctly valued. e.g. Coinmarketcap tell you that token "X" is bought at 1000. Now, if you try to sell 100 of those you will notice that the first one may be sold at 1000, but the rest will be at .00001. In those cases I could argue that the cap based on the highest bid is not realsitic.
3588  Economy / Economics / Re: Green European funds may deal a blow to Tesla on: July 13, 2021, 09:01:35 AM
This was far from unexpected. It was always something like "when", not "if".
Tesla is losing by increasing too slow the production. And if they continue like this, at some point their production will become too big and no longer much demand.
I don't fully understand the implications of this thing, but nevertheless even if Tesla loses its "moat" (or one of them), I'm expecting that in the not-so-distant future they won't be the only car manufacturer cranking out electric vehicles--but that's assuming the world is moving toward that, which I think it is.

Once Honda, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, and the other car makers and their subsidiaries start producing e-vehicles, Tesla will have lost any edge it had, and it'll be just one car maker among many, making variations on a theme.  They were one of the most innovative companies for quite a while, but that doesn't mean they're going to remain on top forever.  They're not going to, IMO.

I think there is a chance Elon Musk could step down as tesla CEO. The way that Jeff Bezos recently stepped down as amazon CEO. Elon Musk recently stated on twitter he hates being the CEO boss.
That could very well be the case, especially if Musk keeps pursuing things other than the success of Tesla.  Stockholders and the company's board of directors might not appreciate a CEO that doesn't have his eye on the ball.

A "moat" is the slang for an unique competitive advantage (perhaps I should have just said so). Tesla has some "moats" such as the driverless technology, the technical advantage in batteries and performance and, on the financial side, they do not have to pay for pre-existing factories designed for combustion engines nor have to loose any patents or IP on these, thus it is "born electric".

If other car markers have what is basically a subsidy to refurb, then the later one is lost. In terms of IP, car makers are quite good at research. They will have to change the direction of such research which is also significantly difficult. Lastly, the driverless technology confers a limited advantage - just until waymo, uber or others get enough "miles".

The full analysis of the competitive landscape for the vehicles in the future would require at least a few hours and good knowledge, so all I am saying is that Tesla is not worth its current marketcap, IMO, and I may lack some technical expertise required, but the assets burden moat will be weakened strongly in the next years.


Subsidies always create distortions in the economy.
How come it is better to give subsidies to a company which is transitioning to electric, but does not give to a company that was born electric? How can this be more efficient in the goal to reduce carbon emissions than to give the same subsidy to both?

So if I am going to create a new car company in Europe, I have an economic incentive to make a company which will transition to electric rather than create an electric company straight away.

We are talking about top automakers companies such as Honda, Toyota, Ford and some other companies which has been established for years. These companies have customers that will always go for their brands so instead of choosing EV from some newly founded automakers companies, people will most likely choose to go for these top companies

The long term goal is probably to convert all the current vehicle into EV so giving subsidies to all these top companies is fair enough to reduce carbon emissions

This is not just a redesign or swapping and engine for another. All those companies have gigantic factories, supply chains and IP that are specific to combustion engines which are going to be maid obsolete by the electric car. Be certain that not all will survive that or will be re-shaped into something completely different. Design is not a "wide moat", that is, is not a strong competitive advantage. Reputation and loyalty are also narrow moats for most companies.

The fact that Europe will publicly subsidize these changes means that Tesla will no longer have that competitive advantage and that one of it´s moats will be gone in 5 years.

...
 But the competition is getting near.
...

That is the point yes, competition is near and that erodes Tesla´s advantage.

...
 Possibly these other car markers will prefer to license technologies from Tesla instead of reinventing the wheel.
...

Then Tesla changes from a car maket to an Research and Development company, which would not require building all those factories. Seems that the strategy is not licencing.


...
Subsidies always create distortions in the economy.
How come it is better to give subsidies to a company which is transitioning to electric, but does not give to a company that was born electric? How can this be more efficient in the goal to reduce carbon emissions than to give the same subsidy to both?
..

Tesla has received huge subsidies for being "green".
3589  Economy / Economics / Re: Miami Mayor Will Allow Employee salaries in Bitcoin on: July 13, 2021, 08:23:53 AM
If I had to choose which news to have, i would certainly not like to hear that Miami is a pioneer on bitcoin acceptance or implementation. Yet it is impossible that it is not that way, this news only make it official. Miami is one of the drug trafficking centers in the US, not that they are short of hubs for that. Unfortunately, not everything that bitcoin is used for is legal, and in the case of Miami I see adoption as a demonstration of mis-use of bitcoin and probably not what this community needs - even if from the city major.
3590  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Sleep Mathematics. on: July 12, 2021, 12:38:18 PM
...
Wow. It means you have only been active for 18 plus years of your life.


...


And 10 of those watching Netflix likely.
3591  Economy / Economics / Green European funds may deal a blow to Tesla on: July 12, 2021, 11:08:37 AM
A significant part of the European Recovery Funds will be channelled towards reducing the carbon emissions. This will include solar energy investments, other renewables but also public investments in car maker´s factories to prepare the massive introduction of the electric cars. One of the key selling points of Tesla stocks is the fact that it was born electric and does not have to spend money transitioning as opposed to all major car maker´s. The fact that Europe will publicly subsidize these changes means that Tesla will no longer have that competitive advantage and that one of it´s moats will be gone in 5 years.

Hi Elon: "Say Dooooge"
3592  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: signs of gambling addiction on: July 12, 2021, 10:46:47 AM
The signs of addiction are no different in gambling than with any other addictive substance or habit. The key is control - if you are not in control of what you are doing that is an addiction. For example, you know you have to pay you gas bill, instead you cross by a gambling shop and bet that money on a race. It does not matter if you win or loose, you obviously are not in control of your priorities and should be considered as addict.

There are different degrees of addiction, not everyone is in danger. Some people will do stupid things but not often enough to cause them long term problems. Some other, and I met a few in my life, will simply spend every cent on their addictions. These cases, curiously enough, are very easy to detect, as opposed to the mild ones, that should also be treated.
3593  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Fighting Game Betting on: July 12, 2021, 10:30:24 AM
The games that have the best possibilities are those that are currently top in the eSports as some people around said. This is becoming really big in terms of market size, with growths that resemble those of Facebook and WhatsApp at its best. DOTA 2 and League of Legends seem to be the most played in tournaments with prices in the range of million USD. Betting should follow and you will no doubt be able to find reputable sites soon if they are not already there. Perhaps having a look at the organisers webs could lead you there.
3594  Other / Off-topic / Re: Big win Argentina, Big win Messi. on: July 12, 2021, 10:23:24 AM
An excellent game by Argentina. It think they should be paying Barca for leaving Messi in such a perfect shape and well rested after doing little during the Spanish league and letting Athletico win. I guess that Messi gets much more tv time and glamour winning the America cup than winning the Spanish league  Grin Unfortunately, this win does not solve the Argentina perpetual crisis and political problems ... "Panem et circenses" as the old Romans say, that may keep the people happy for a weekend before going to the same old problems.

A joke: Do you know how to tell an Argentinian spy? - Just because he will have a shirt saying "I am the best spy on the world"  Grin

Congrats guys, none of this should be taken seriously.
3595  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: You got a pifzer ? Then you can be eligible for lottery in Poland. on: July 12, 2021, 09:30:54 AM
From a mathematical point of view, this is a very clear case for a rational decision making process  Grin

- Evaluate your chances of being seriously affected by covid.
- Evaluate your chances of getting a nasty secondary effect from the jabs (growing a third arm or getting a trombo).
- Evaluate your chances of winning that lottery.

If you are young, you might choose not to get the jab. If you are old, you most likely want to go for it. The funny thing is that the chances of winning the lottery only have a minimal effect so this is all marketing.
3596  Economy / Gambling discussion / Gambling or playing? on: July 12, 2021, 09:25:48 AM
I am sure most of you have played videogames of one short or another and many have noticed that may offer gambling in-game options - I am thinking mostly of Role Games and MMPORGs -  like implementing a casino or some short of fortune game. As an old example, Fallout New Vegas has an in-built game called Caravans, but you can play blackjack, roulette, etc... Newer games that are free to play or cheap to play offer lotteries that award prices such as unique or rare in-game items...

There is currently quite an effort on using these techniques in games that should not be about gambling or chances playing and some people may find undesirable. Is this going too far? What type of effect may this game on underaged players?
3597  Economy / Economics / Re: At least it was something great on: July 12, 2021, 09:00:54 AM
Most people in the world do not get the chance of doing anything remarkable in their lives. Many may do things that are significant for them, but usually, chances of doing something that will change humanity, its culture and its way of thinking are remote. People involved in the French Revolution, artists in the Renaissance, philosophers in ancient Athens, ... they did things that left the world changed.

Most of us have some bitcoin. A few have a lot of bitcoin. Just think that for any reason, in 5 years or 10 years, something happened that dropped bitcoin value or made the network unusable or whatever event or combination of events made it impossible to use it any longer. As far as I am concerned, I can say "I was there and, at least, it was something great and I was part of it". When bitcoin fades, the way people think about currency, self-governance,  trust in a system will have changed forever. And you will have been part of it and be able to say "I did something great and it changed the world".
I'll be honest, based on my surroundings I don't think Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies have been able to make that big an impact on the "payments system". Yes the level of adoption has increased, a lot of people know about bitcoin and invest in cryptocurrencies now and they have become a big market for hedgers, arbitrageurs, traders, and Investors but at the same time in the payment stream, except for EL Salvador there is nothing we can boast a lot about at this point of time. But yes the technology of blockchain is really something that has changed our lives forever.


You are forgetting about something: mindsets, psychology, philosophy and culture. Even if the "experiment" that is bitcoin fails in economic terms, you have made millions of people more conscious of how money works, what is happening with their fiat reserves and how is actually possible to free yourself from being played with.

Another historic example - many railways went bankrupt, yet we still have them and we still use railways as a means of transport. It was the first time people of moderate means could actually leave their surroundings at a cheap price and discover that there was something else in the world apart from their villages. That changed culture (people of modest means did not vacation before) and made people more free. That is my point, this changes everything regardless of the economic incentives.
3598  Economy / Economics / Re: What is better - cryptocurrency trading or investing? on: July 12, 2021, 08:52:17 AM
My personal opinion about any kind of trading is that if you have anything that remotely works you will not ask this question and you will certainly will not publish a youtube video "showing others how easy it is", etc... (not that you have done, just example). Other than that, it is the fastest way to loosing your money. Most trading platforms have to include disclaimers such as "most of our clients take loses" and the like - you surely get the point. Investing in crypto, as such, is not that different from trading except that you will trade much less. The chances of success are slightly better.

But the main point is something else: investing in crypto should be taken as investing in venture capital. Very high rewards for just a few projects, 100% loss for most and extreme variability in results. The only difference is that you normally have liquidity.
3599  Economy / Economics / Cybersecurity workers shortage in USA on: July 12, 2021, 08:47:04 AM
Recent news in various outlets are pointing out to companies in the US that have been victims of ransomware and other attacks not being able to get the help they need to get back on-line. Particularly, hacks that infect software companies that then spread the threats to other companies (as the recent Solarwinds which affected a number of major software providers). In my view, the equivalent to this is to be outnumbered by an enemy army - loosing a war because you do not have enough qualified soldiers.

https://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/news/252494362/10-of-the-biggest-cyber-attacks

Europe & USA are not taking this seriously enough and are not regulating strongly enough the requirements. You may argue that these are private companies, but the fact is that they have an effect on the system creating a "call effect" to further attacks and creating caos in the economy.
3600  Economy / Economics / Re: At least it was something great on: July 11, 2021, 12:54:00 AM
--snip-- Just think that for any reason, in 5 years or 10 years, something happened that dropped bitcoin value or made the network unusable or whatever event or combination of events made it impossible to use it any longer. As far as I am concerned, I can say "I was there and, at least, it was something great and I was part of it". When bitcoin fades, the way people think about currency, self-governance,  trust in a system will have changed forever. And you will have been part of it and be able to say "I did something great and it changed the world".
There there.

I don't know what is triggering your existential crisis but I find it very defeatist to think that you can just sigh away on a future thinking" I was there". The premise that Bitcoin will fade in coming years is something that those at this forum shouldn't accept in any scenario. The biggest tech companies are already deciding how an average human's life plays out. The banks are already deciding that they'll track your expenses and incomes from life till birth with CBDCs. The only thing that gives you an option is this decentralized network of peers called Bitcoin.

If it ever comes to the stage that it is fading, I think the renaissance moment for everyone on this forum will be to take a stand for liberty and run a full node and a miner..Smiley I mean the price of Bitcoin doesn't have to be 100K for the network to continue and survive. The developments can always continue and we can always have Bitcoin.

So stop being so gloomy buddy, you may still have your moment in the sun.


Not an existential crisis at all, just the knowledge that existence is finite and that it is nice to know that somehow mine contributed to the future of humanity even if was an atom size contribution. I am aware that most people do not think in those terms and that many will focus their answers in the hypothesis (not the premise at all) that bitcoin could cease or become irrelevant - which is not at all the topic - but I am not writing for them.

I am not being gloomy, it is exactly the opposite, I am happy that ... I am here doing this, and I am happy whether I personally get richer or everything fades. Some answers to the post lead me to think that some people do get the point, others don´t.
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