I just mean that S is talking about possible bull runs again.  Not "strong buy"s though.  Sorry, was being a bit unfair.

Thanks, Meni.  I get it now.

Thanks, Chodpaba.   Modeling the retracement regions in a Bayesian framework would be interesting.

Hahahaha.  The clock has stopped again.

I don't have a price in mind.  Stability and a strong story for how it's going to be useful are the main things I'm looking for.

Thanks for the graph and the explanations.  "Retracement" is a new concept for me, and I think it will take a little time for me to wrap my head around it.

Expanding the independent axis to show where the real resistance starts would be interesting.

I'm mildly skeptical, mildly hopeful.  Wish all those clever folks the best from me.

Where can I find out about this?  Haven't seen anything really earth-shattering in the bitcoin development mailing list...

  Yeah, there is no way I would do this without a fairly invasive financial audit and collateral which I could confidently sell for a substantial fraction of the loan amount.  I don't have BoA's collection capabilities and we are headed into hard times which will make default very tempting for a lot of people.  (Not saying I have any specific reason to suspect the OP is a substantial default risk, just that I am inexperienced and see this as a dangerous time to be a creditor.)

Sorry, Matthew, I care about the price because I don't want to waste my money.  Having money is important to me.  I know I'm eccentric in this regard.

Having trouble following this.  Could you explain exactly what the blue and green lines represent, please?

A legend on the animation page itself might go a long way towards clarifying this.

These are the exact circumstances in which I would start to get worried about having money in bitcoinica.  Essentially, you have entered into a naked short with them, which only works if they remain solvent.  Glad your predictions are panning out, though!  For several weeks, I was planning to buy a fairly substantial amount of bitcoin off someone in a face-to-face transaction some time while traveling last week.  Fortunately, the crash happened before I got around to it...

Your or Bin Laden.

I have not made any financial commitments to it, yet, but I believe the bottom will be well below $1/BTC.  The huge crash we've seen over the past couple of days, though, I doubt that's going to be typical of the ride down.  There will be more bouncing along and dropping, just as there has been for the past few weeks.

Someone highly motivated to advance widespread bitcoin adoption flounced off the social scene recently.  Of course, that could be a coincidence.  But the extremely inefficient unloading of tens of thousands of bitcoins does look like a comparable emotional reaction...

What escrow service?

Thanks; that was the part I was missing.

  Totally agree with your reasoning on a conceptual level, but could you explain the product A*B in a little more detail?

  I keep hearing this claim, but don't know of any empirical evidence for it.  Can you point me to some?