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361  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you blame someone for your gambling losses? on: March 14, 2024, 08:19:00 AM
That is what stupid gamblers usually do , they tend to look for someone to be blame because of their own mistakes ,imagine how much risk they use to gamble but when faces losses they will end up making big issues so their act will not look like fool, gamble at your own risk , and also when we gamble always remember that it is our decision unless they are being forced to bet .

Yeah, that's something that is very common.

Most people like to blame everyone else except themselves when something bad happens to them.

When something good happens to them though, they are quick to forget everyone that helped them and they take all the credit.

It's simply how most people behave.
362  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: March 14, 2024, 08:16:47 AM
~snip~
I think there's something about the thrill too, about being right on a position you decided to take, more than only making money
there are several different ways to make money you don't have to bet to do it, so I think sports bettors seek something else too, something about looking at a future possibility and seeing its confirmation

Yeah, I think there are many other aspects to gambling than just the money.

Especially if you go to a real world casino with all it's "luxurious" experiences.

It can be a source of entertainment for some people, also it allows to have extra things like say, a 24 hour open sports bar with a nice screen, etc, which usually wouldn't be profitable to run otherwise.
363  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you believe in gambling experts predictions? on: March 14, 2024, 08:12:15 AM
There is no 100% guarantee in gambling. I believe that the predictions or tips that some experts make are just for reference and sometimes this can help, at least some people. I don't believe that there can be any expert in gambling who knows everything and can be 100% correct, I respect them, but I believe that there is no type of strategy that's unique and that can always guarantee victory every time we bet.

You can of course have experts that are great at knowing the odds of different types of events, those people usually work at casinos for example.

They are the ones that set the payouts at the games. Well, most probably a computer, but you get the idea.

At the end of the day, the more certain something is to happen, the less the payout for it. And that information can be updated in real time.

For example after half time of a game, the odds can change, because something happened in the first half. You can't get the same odds that you could have done before the game started.
364  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: If I bet big I lose, but if I bet small I win on: March 14, 2024, 08:09:57 AM
~snip~
You're witnessing an event known as "proof prejudice." This is when you recall only the occasions when your prediction has been confirmed correct and disregard the times when it has been shown wrong. For example, suppose you bet big and lose ten times in a row. Then you begin betting tiny and win five times in a row. Because the victories stand out in your mind, you begin to believe that your prediction is genuine. However, you are forgetting about the ten times you lost when you were betting big. In actuality, it is just a chance series of wins and defeats.

This is a common mental occurrence.

Yeah, the mind is always trying to explain what's going on, and it doesn't always have to be the real explanation. It only needs to be an explanation and the brain will be ok.

That's partly why science is difficult, because sometimes you want to believe something, your brain is telling you something, but the data is clearly telling you something else.
365  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin Pez dispenser (limited edition) on: March 13, 2024, 07:05:36 AM
Pez dispensers have been discussed in this forum more than a decade ago:

eBay started off as a way for the guy's wife to collect Pez dispensers, and look at what a clusterfuck THAT has turned into.

We've now come full circle with this limited edition Bitcoin Pez Dispenser for sale on eBay: https://www.ebay.com/itm/145654566941





There are only 30,000 units made.

Here are the details of this collectible:

Quote
This Limited Edition Bitcoin PEZ is one of a single production run of 30,000 dispensers. This exclusive dispenser is limited in distribution channels and will not be found in retail stores like ordinary PEZ. The puck dispenser has the Bitcoin cryptocurrency logo on it and comes on a matching orange stem. The dispenser comes on a Bitcoin card marked with the limited edition emblem from PEZ Candy. The back of the card has the Bitcoin logo and says "Eat Candy. Buy Bitcoin." This dispenser will be popular among PEZ collectors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. The Bitcoin PEZ dispenser comes on a card with three packs of orange PEZ candy.

You don't need to HODL this PEZ Dispenser like you would your actual Bitcoin...or do you?


• Limited Edition: Only 30,000 Dispensers Made

• Bitcoin Themed PEZ Candy Dispenser

• A Must-have for any Bitcoin or Crypto enthusiast

• Includes Three Candy Refills.

 
Manufactured by PEZ Candy, Inc. in the United States of America.

If you don't like eBay for some reason, you can gran one from Walmart as well:

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Bitcoin-PEZ-Dispenser-with-Candy-LIMITED-EDITION/1915338112
366  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Get one btc right away or 5 btc with a bet? on: March 13, 2024, 06:45:14 AM
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

OK, so if you simply apply math with the assumption of maximizing the reward, then clearly you have these expected values (multiplying by the odds):

1 * 1 BTC = 1 BTC

0.5 * 5 BTC = 2.5 BTC

So, simply because we are maximizing for returns, the second option, going for the 5 BTC is the clear winner.

But, if you apply this in real life, maybe 1 BTC is all that the person would ever need to retire and live a happy life.

In that case, then there would be no need to add the risk of getting the 5 BTC because the utility of the extra 4 BTC would be valued at 0.

In that scenario the person will clearly go for the 1 BTC as there is no extra incentives to get the 5 BTC with the extra risk.
367  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: March 13, 2024, 06:40:48 AM
~snip~
Unfortunately, year after year Brazil's performance has been decreasing and this is clear in the results of their last games.
Regarding the coach, Dorival Junior is a renowned Brazilian coach and in my opinion I think he can lead Brazil better than Diniz, but I believe that Ancelloti could become a game changer because he's a coach with extreme quality and reputation, but unfortunately he didn't go to Brazil.
Brazil will have some friendly matches in a few weeks and in a few months Brazil will play in the Copa America, after all, after these games we will be able to see what the level of the Brazilian football team will be.

Not really sure about that.

Brazil is the number 1 team on the FIFA ranking, they have won the most world cups in history, and they have qualified to every single edition of the world cup, which no other country has done, ever.

I can guarantee you that Brazil will qualify to this world cup as well, and they will go to the second stage.

After that it's a bit of a gamble though.
368  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Who among you here is gambling at work? on: March 13, 2024, 06:38:58 AM
Sometimes, when work has stalled and my brain has overheated, I am tempted to play online casinos on my full time job. It's like a way to get distracted and relax for a few minutes. The pros are that it adds thrills and excitement to my boring work day.
But, there are also disadvantages: I lose focus and concentration at work, and also risk being caught by my superiors. Therefore, I try not to get too carried away and use the game as a short entertainment.

Sometimes the best thing to do it to relax a bit and then go back to work with increased focus.

Some people enjoy this and can go gambling for a few minutes and then come back to the job with recharged batteries.

Others go gambling and never really come back, their mind is stuck in the gambling.

It's like any other addiction really. In moderation it's great.
369  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why in some religion gambling is forbidden? on: March 13, 2024, 06:37:18 AM
~snip~
Yup, It really depends to your personal belief and faith because even if there's some religions who doesn't allow gambling and it is strictly forbidden for them, there still some of their members who secretly participating in any gambling activities because they believe that they are the only one who should dictate what they should and shouldn't do in life, so even if it is forbidden in their religion, there are still many who disobey it.

I don't really see how those people benefit from that religion then.

At the end of the day people follow religion for a better future for themselves and everyone around them.

There's no big eye watching your every move, it's simply your own life that you are damaging with the "wrong" actions.

Whatever those "wrong" actions are, defined by your own religion that you are following, it's up to you to get to that standard, and it's also you who will get the outcomes.

No reason to do anything "secretly" as you already know what you are doing. In fact it's impossible to keep it a secret to yourself.
370  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: If I bet big I lose, but if I bet small I win on: March 13, 2024, 06:34:50 AM
Yes, sometimes it’s true but it’s not that the gambling casino has something to do with that. I feel like whenever you bet BIG you accumulate a lot of games to get more but when you get more you mean because you’re analysis is not with a high expectation you analyze with a low expectation, so it will definitely assist your betting and you may not lost The game because you didn’t expect BIG sometimes people lost because of Pretty and gambling. Lady has been one of the major problem to some people that is a gambler.

Yeah, I think the main issue here is perception.

Basically the big difference between betting win or small and whatever you get from those bets is simply a made up thing based on your state of mind.

In the end, the probability of winning or losing is exactly the same independent of how much you bet.
371  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Who was Satoshi Nakamoto? on: March 12, 2024, 07:22:09 AM
I don't know who he is but if Forbes still counted him as the owner of 1 million Bitcoin, he would be worth $72.5 billion right now, making him the 21st richest person on Earth, as of today.

It is quite insane to think that the person who started Bitcoin, the best investment of the last decade by far, and assuming he controls a lot of those coins, he would still not be the richest person on Earth.

Makes me wonder how on Earth the other 20 people got so much money.

I think that level of centralization of fiat is partly the reason why Bitcoin was invented in the first place.
372  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Who among you here is gambling at work? on: March 12, 2024, 07:20:02 AM
Is it really forbidden to gamble while at work? It would be unethical to use work devices to access online casino (yet this still depends on the admin if he monitors users activity, or all he cares is that you dont download any virus), but who can forbid me to use my mobile to gamble? Wont it be interference in private life? Technically I can have a lunch at work in the office at my working place and gamble during it. Technically I am still at work.

At the end of the day it really depends on the actual job you are working at, the contract you have, and the social relationships you have.

Some people can get away with it, others can't.

In some jobs it is impossible, in others it's quite simple.

You can't really make general assumptions about this.
373  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: March 12, 2024, 07:18:37 AM
~snip~
To be fair when there is a president that goes for a re-election, not that many high quality people actually go for nomination. There is a huge chance that you do not end up getting endless amount of nominations, you try your hand a few times max and then you are done, and it would also impact your position as well, so you should be careful when you throw your hat in the ring. Plus, when you are the nominee, you end up saying bad things about other nominees, which means if you end up losing, you are going to get a lot of backlash on that.

So, only people who are not that great goes up against a re-election candidate. Trump and Biden has that advantage, but after this one, I am pretty sure we are going to get two new candidates for 2028 by both parties, and I am sure it will be pretty strong.

Well, by 2028 Trump will be 81, and Biden will be 85...

I'm not really sure they would be running for president, independent of being reelected or not.

I think the idea of having a maximum age for president should be discussed.

I mean, there are checks for people driving a car at late age, but for driving a whole country you don't need any checks?
374  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why in some religion gambling is forbidden? on: March 12, 2024, 07:12:29 AM
When we talk about religion we cannot dine the forbidden things like alcohol, prostitution and many other things in this topic we will discuss why do gambling is forbidden (Haram, interdit) .
So can you tell me why is it forbidden in your religion?
And for the non religious persons what you think ?

At the end of the day religion was invented to try to explain how to have a better future.

Different religions differ a bit in how to do it, but basically most of them try to aim for a never reachable perfection (God).

Sins are basically things that will make your future life on Earth hell, say alcohol in excess today will make your future pretty bad. That's the idea of hell, a bad future.

On the other hand, if you stay in the right path and not commit any sins, you have the chance of having a great life in the future, that is, live in heaven.

It's not meant for after you die, it's simply the future.

So, gambling for example can make some people's future pretty bad financially speaking. So that's why it is prohibited in some religions.
375  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Get one btc right away or 5 btc with a bet? on: March 12, 2024, 07:09:39 AM
It kinda depends on the percentages.

1 BTC with 100% certainty vs 5 BTC with how much uncertainty?, 50%?

If that's the case, I would take the 1 BTC.

Pretty much all the time I would choose the 1 BTC unless the 5 BTC were at something like 99% chances or something like that.

But I guess to make it interesting the odds would be something like you get the 1 BTC at 100% and the 5 BTC at 20% chances of getting it.

I would of course take the 1 BTC as well in that case.
376  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: March 11, 2024, 08:16:37 AM
~snip~
This makes me remember that there is a law that is being debated in Colombia, we all know that Colombia has a lot of fame regarding drugs, from Pablo Escobar, the Toad Cartel, among other things, that still exist in Colombia, now The new president proposed a bill where he wants to legalize Cannabis, cocaine and among other drugs, this in order to end addictions with drug trafficking, where each person has the right to consume a fraction in mg of a certain drug, where it is not punishable or anything like that, many have not wanted this to happen, because it would expand the degree of addiction in the world, happening primarily in Colombia, I don't know what effect it could have or if I find it a positive effect to this, but it is something that is not common, it is something that is not normal, however these things can happen in many ways according to the interpretation of many people, if you ask me, I do not agree why the drug It has brought many ugly things to many people and even death, it is something that is not very good, but since now in the world there are so many freedoms and things that seem unpleasant to me are legal, well I do not know now how to deal with these types of things nor do I know what Think now, the only thing is that I will educate my children to instill in them those values that to taught me.

I don't know if this drives addicts more crazy, but the style of these laws is a double-edged sword and I don't know if in the end they help or make addicted people worse.

An easy way to find out is to look at the prohibition in the US.

For years they banned the sell of alcohol in the US.

This created a massive black market, with gangs making a lot of money.

People still got their alcohol, but they paid their money to the underworld, plus any kid could easily buy it as they don't ask for ID.

The easiest way to stop the black market was to make it legal. That way you can actually regulate it.

Now the black market of alcohol in the US is almost non-existent in comparison to the legal one. Plus the government can tax it, and get money from it, regulate it so that kids don't get access to it, etc.

It's as simple as supply and demand.

People want drugs, that won't change. Just make them legal and the underworld will not be able to make money off drugs.
377  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: If I bet big I lose, but if I bet small I win on: March 11, 2024, 08:12:26 AM
~snip~
That is gambling for you. Well, I don't play casino but bet well on football. This sometimes happens to me in football. Two years ago, at a particular time I bet #5000 upward but keep losing. At a time after have lose big and I'm not with much money, I started betting with #150. With my first #150, I won #120,000. This is an amount I never win when I bet with huge money then. What I observed is that when betting big, you will be extremely careful with the games you chose and you end up chosing games that doesn't worth it. But betting with small money is like you betting for fun. One just pick games without fearing any odds. And this most times turn out to winning.

Yeah, the amount you bet might affect the way you bet, making it more cautious.

The thing is that those bets also pay less as they are more certain to happen.

In the end it's all about the odds, and the house has advantage, so clearly if you want to make money, then gambling is not the best way to do it. It's probably a better idea to gamble as a past time or entertainment.
378  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you blame someone for your gambling losses? on: March 11, 2024, 08:10:21 AM
Really funny act. How will you accuse someone of such when you never had them in mind if you win the money? If you make a mistake, take responsibility for what you did and own up for your actions. Don’t try to make anyone suffer or pay wrongly when they are entirely innocent. If I had the power as the judge, I’ll make them pay even more time in jail because it could have been an innocent person.

I think it's a very common thing. I've observed this in many areas in life, not just gambling.

Many people like to blame anyone else except themselves.

I don't think it's a great way to live, because in the end there's no way to change other people, so by blaming them you are removing your power to change and become better.

In my view it is best to assume everything is your own fault. At least that way you have a way to change yourself for the better in the future.
379  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Risking 1% in Gambling on: March 11, 2024, 08:08:39 AM
~snip~
For those that may want to find out exactly how high their bet needs to be so they can obtain the most profits with it, obviously this assumes the person in question has a way to beat the casinos already, a good way to do this is with the Kelly Criterion.

The Kelly Criterion allows a gambler or a trader to determine how high their bet or their position should be to obtain the most profits, and while like any other formula, it has its critics, you can do a lot worse than to apply the Kelly Criterion.

The amount of money you bet is basically a multiplier of the odds the casino is playing.

So, even if you bet $1, you will have the same odds as if you gambled $100 or one thousand.

At the end of the day it is just probabilities, and the maximum you can get is basically the maximum you can bet in that game.

Of course, the flip-side to that is that betting the maximum also maximizes the amount you can lose, and the odds are against you, so you will most probably lose it.
380  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can Anyone +18 Play Gamble? on: March 11, 2024, 08:06:27 AM
Why would anyone wanna try gambling in the first place?? Talk more of doing it below the designated age 18?.. most guaranteed site would demand for KYC so i don't see the possibility of that happening - unless they wanna play around with any other exclusive site.
~snip~
 Do you wanna be responsible to your family and children if you've got any? Stay away from gambling... Don't even dare to ask how it's done. Just like you said in the second line of this paragraph; people always wanna try out new things and just before they realize what's happening, they're already served in a bigger platter.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

There are many risky things in life that are worth doing.

Just because there is some risk attached to something, it doesn't mean you shouldn't do it.

Clearly there is something that you can get from gambling, otherwise no one would do it.

A very small amount of people actually get money from it, others get some fun out of it, and others create their career based on it to sell something else.

Clearly if a gambler is simply losing money and time, then it's not a great plan, but that can be applied to any other aspect of life, not just gambling.
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