---------------------------- Original Message ---------------------------- Subject: Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty From: AnnoyMint Date: Thu, November 27, 2014 5:01 am To: "Armstrong Economics" -------------------------------------------------------------------------- A compilation of information about Armstrong's case: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9666280#msg9666280Also you may find my other posts recently in that same thread to be very lucid and helpful. I also suggest Armstrong can learn something (at least about how to communicate more unambiguously and also substantive points I've added) from reading how I dissect and augment. I agree with Armstrong on most points and of course have explained his model (more lucidly than Armstrong does) to mainstream economists such as Michael Pettis recently. However the one remaining significant disagreement I have with Armstrong is that Armstrong thinks that the NY Club banksters are the extent of any global network that could have aims on directing the final outcome of coming global crisis towards a global NWO monetary unit and governance. Armstrong saw behind the curtain the political and regulatory capture corruption, but the globalists sit at a higher level of abstraction that Armstrong would never be able to correlate from his data. They are much more sophisticated than these goons at the grunt bankster level. Their aim is simply supranational control over finance. They understand, "I care not who makes the laws if I control the money supply", because "he who owns the gold makes the rules". And Armstrong thinks it is impossible to have a global agreement about certain aspects of governance, such as harmonization of international trade and finance. He is going to end up very wrong on this. Mark my word. I hope he lives long enough to see which of us was correct. |
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http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6537&cpage=1#comment-1309818Eric, were you born yesterday?
The militarization of the police will not be allowed to be challenged nor be brought to the light of a public trial.
Fivethirtyeight.com published a statistic: in 2010, US attorneys prosecuted 162,000 cases, and only 11 times did a grand jury NOT return an indictment. If a grand jury does not return an indictment, the prosecutor didn't want them to.
There is no obligation to present all the evidence because the Supreme Court has ruled that the Grand Jury is NOT entitled to all the evidence, since the trial jury will correct any deficiencies. There should have been an indictment and then let the PUBLIC see all the evidence. Hiding this incident in such a manner will NEVER satisfy not merely the black community, but the entire world. The worst of the worst is that the Grand Jury proceedings are secret. No judge is present at the proceedings which are led by a prosecutor who is routinely pro-government. The target “defendant” has no right to even be present his case or to be informed of the proceedings secretly being conducted behind the scenes. There is no right to a lawyer in the Grand Jury. Among the legal community, Grand Jury indictments are considered a JOKE and the typical phase one hears among lawyers concern the rules are so one sided, the government could indict a “ham sandwich”.
Surely you will censor my post as always, even though you promised I was unbanned the last time I corrected you. I post on your blog roughly every 6 months now, so why can't you handle [the] intellectual challenge? P.S. It is expected that those with a low IQ can't comprehend why there is no inconsistency between the above and my other post on Ferguson.
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Any reader who thinks we don't have a totalitarian police state in the USA, should try to explain away Armstrong's well documented, egregious case. Don't forget that the USA can now legally send the military after you and "make you shut up" without any due process nor habeas corpus. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/So when the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on, they realized they would lose. You have to at least charge someone. Now, there was not even a charge. Therefore, I was released to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling against them. What did they do then? They used the terrorist nonsense as the excuse to now indefinitely imprison anyone at any time without even charging them, lawyers, or a right to trial. The rumor is they used Lindsey Graham threatening him because he is gay and if he did not strip Americans of all rights, he would be exposed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ni-nPc6gT4Now a journalist Chris Hedges and several others sued the Obama Administration on the grounds of it being unconstitutional to indefinitely hold citizens as they did to me without charges, lawyers, or a right to a trial. Judge Katherine Forrest agreed it was unconstitutional and issued an injunction to prevent the government from doing so. This was immediately appealed by the Obama Administration for they are really indistinguishable from George Bush when it comes to expanding government power and destroying the Constitution. The Obama Administration appealed to the higher court – where? Second Circuit Court of Appeals of New York. That court, naturally with the speed of a bullet, instantaneously issued a temporary stay on the injunction allowing the government to indefinitely detain anyone it desires. The notorious Second Circuit, perhaps the most anti-constitution court in the USA, will make the decision. The way this goes, if they side with the government, you can appeal to the Supreme Court but they take only perhaps 100 out of 10 thousand petitions. If the government lost, whenever they appeal, they are normally granted the right to be heard by the Supreme Court. So if the Second Circuit sides with government, the burden is then on the citizen to show why this case should be heard. First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Socialist. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me |
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Any reader who thinks we don't have a totalitarian police state in the USA, should try to explain away the following well documented, egregious case. Don't forget that the USA can now legally send the military after you and "make you shut up" without any due process nor habeas corpus. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/So when the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on, they realized they would lose. You have to at least charge someone. Now, there was not even a charge. Therefore, I was released to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling against them. What did they do then? They used the terrorist nonsense as the excuse to now indefinitely imprison anyone at any time without even charging them, lawyers, or a right to trial. The rumor is they used Lindsey Graham threatening him because he is gay and if he did not strip Americans of all rights, he would be exposed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ni-nPc6gT4Now a journalist Chris Hedges and several others sued the Obama Administration on the grounds of it being unconstitutional to indefinitely hold citizens as they did to me without charges, lawyers, or a right to a trial. Judge Katherine Forrest agreed it was unconstitutional and issued an injunction to prevent the government from doing so. This was immediately appealed by the Obama Administration for they are really indistinguishable from George Bush when it comes to expanding government power and destroying the Constitution. The Obama Administration appealed to the higher court – where? Second Circuit Court of Appeals of New York. That court, naturally with the speed of a bullet, instantaneously issued a temporary stay on the injunction allowing the government to indefinitely detain anyone it desires. The notorious Second Circuit, perhaps the most anti-constitution court in the USA, will make the decision. The way this goes, if they side with the government, you can appeal to the Supreme Court but they take only perhaps 100 out of 10 thousand petitions. If the government lost, whenever they appeal, they are normally granted the right to be heard by the Supreme Court. So if the Second Circuit sides with government, the burden is then on the citizen to show why this case should be heard. First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Socialist. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me |
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jaysabi, were you born yesterday? The militarization of the police will not be allowed to be challenged nor be brought to the light of a public trial. |
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Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guiltyhttp://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98553Yea, right. Armstrong plead guilty to criminal conspiracy. You can even find his guilty plea online.
I wonder what he’s NOT telling us. Since you continue to pontificate without doing your homework, then you have compelled me to spend several hours of my scarce time to do it for you, because I refuse to allow you to slander an innocent man.
The intentional ridicule implicit in his joke about being promised pizza should have tipped you off about the sincerety of his “guilty plea”.
He was forced under duress to plead guilty.http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/martin-armstong-forced-to-move-to-high.html... was basically TORTURED. According to Martin’s younger sister, Nancy, he was locked in solitary confinement for almost the entire 7 years duration, suffering days on end and at times was intentionally awaken every hour or so all night long, night after night, in an attempt to get him to sign a confession. He was repeatedly told that he would not get the chance to see his 91 year old mother alive again if he did not sign the confession. This took place off and on for SEVEN YEARS. Then one day a huge convict, “a known homicidal maniac” named George, was locked in his cell with him where he proceeded to beat and strangle him until he thought he was dead. Later, according to Armstrong, a fellow inmate stated that the guards watched the beating and refused to open the door to stop it. He lost most of his teeth, and now, over two years later is still missing them because the prison system only has one dentist for over 5,000 inmates. He suffered a detached retina, broken ribs and other internal injuries that left him in intensive care.
They offered him a plea agreement to TIME SERVED if he would plea guilty and after 7 years, he could take no more and agreed, obviously under heavy duress http://www.topix.com/forum/business/TS8IHELKS6G8FDV65/post2John Jersey City, NJ
#2 Aug 15, 2006
Now that his trial date is coming up the federal prison that he is in has put him in solitary confinement, which takes away his possibility of using all the documents, library, computer, etc. in order to form a defense. He is also only allowed one phone call every two weeks, making it even harder to contact the outside world and put together a defense. If there are any journilist out there that would like to inquire about this please see the contact info below.
MCC NEW YORK
METROPOLITAN CORRECTIONAL CENTER
150 PARK ROW
NEW YORK, NY 10007
MapQuest� Map and Directions1
Ph: 646 836 6300
Fx: 646 836 7751
E-mail address: NYM/EXECASSISTANT@BOP.GOV2 http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/martin-armstrong-legal-update-092811.pdfI provided the evidence how the SEC director picked the receiver, then left the SEC and became a partner of O’Melveny & Myers. No mention of how the receiver became a director of Goldman Sachs yet still ran Princeton Economics. No mention of Mr. Schiavoni’s email demanding the model or they would shut down the Princeton Economic Institute. No mention that the CFTC lawyer who crafted the allegations was disbarred for falsifying evidence after handling the Sumitomo copper manipulation that did not name any US banks, only Japanese. No word as to how I could be held in contempt AFTER Republic National Bank paid back $606 million or pocketing Princeton’s $400 million yet I was held for the next 7 years when I owed nothing.
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How our firm can be gathering evidence against organized market manipulations as GATA and others were trying to do and then the Government seized our firm misrepresenting contracts that PURCHASED portfolios as part of a bail out in Japan claiming they were SOLICITATIONS for management and then appoints as a receiver who becomes a board member of one of the very firms we were investigating, confiscates all the evidence we gathered , alters transcripts that Judge Owen publicly had to admit, and then they kept me in prison on contempt refusing to release me at any time even if friends put up the FULL amount of cash they claimed to be looking for, is just uncivilized.
Now, one Government employee has come forward SUBMITTING under oath in the Court of Appeals in Washington, DC, an affidavit admitting what every rational person knew stating the Government conceded there was NO sufficient evidence against me or Princeton Economics but they refused to release me unless I pled (see attached).
Meanwhile, evidence of what went on at the bank remains SEALED by the court and is not allowed to be released to the public. So much for the truth! Attorneys for HSBC sought and obtained a lifetime gag order to prevent me from EVER releasing evidence to the public to exonerate myself. One such telephone transcript shows how illegal trades were being stuffed in to our hedging accounts:He (Armstrong) doesn’t know that, though. He doesn’t know what you do in A (Account) though right? Not really. He doesn’t know what he does in any of them No, he doesn’t.
Disclosure prevented by order of Judge McKenna
Another obvious fact is that Republic National Bank pled guilty, paid $606 million in January 2002. All the bankers agreed to return the funds as long as they were NOT charged. So if everyone was made WHOLE in January 2002, why was I not released? ... If I owed NO restitution, then WHY did the Government keep me in prison for the next 7 years to turnover assets for something I did not owe?
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When a Federal Judge admits publically that he was altering the transcripts in court after the fact, then how can anyone trust what is taking place in Federal courts anymore? http://www.bangkokbusinessbrief.com/2012/10/26/martin-armstrong-fraud-or-genius/To avoid a potentially damning trial for the bank, this is where the contempt of court situation arose. And why some believe Armstrong was charged and jailed because of the length of time he was held, but this is not the case he says.
“To prevent a trial they created a contempt of court situation – which is not a crime. A judge can say, ‘I think you should do this and I’m going to put you in jail until you do it.’ The judge directed me to turn over assets and the court officer Tancred Shiavoni further demanded my computer model source be turned over to the court as well. They claimed this was in case I owed something upon conviction but in the end I didn’t owe anything – the bank did.
“And because it’s not a ‘crime’ and the judge is not ‘punishing’ you, you are not entitled to lawyers or a trial. They kept me in jail for seven years for assets that maybe I might owe, but didn’t at the end of the day.
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“The only reason I was [ever finally] released [in 2011] is because we got the case to the Supreme Court and they asked the prosecutors, why is this man in prison? There were three postponements and then they finally just released me to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/29/is-the-new-world-order-cracking-apart/I have been confronted directly. I have had my family threatened and wrote a letter to SEC prosecutor Dorothy Heyl and bluntly stated if Alan Cohen and Tancred Schiavoni did not stop threatening my family I would commit suicide to protect them but I would not go quietly. I had given friends letters that would be publish if push that far. She had them back off. Then I faced the evil duo. I was told to confess to being in a conspiracy with Edmond Safra who I believe Putin killed for trying to take over Russia by blackmailing Yeltsin and I would be released. I laughed and said no way.
In the movie coming out, someone from government has come forward and stated on camera he was told they had no evidence against me and were just trying to break me. The FBI showed up at his house the day before the interview and tried to intimidate him. He had the guts to tell them to get out. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/09/04/the-truth-about-solitary-confinement/Unfortunately, it is standard torture practices used in the Justice Department to ensure they get their 98% plea rate so they never have to go to trial. In my own case, they came out and told me to my face they did not want to go to trial. They offered two deals. I refused, so off to solitary confinement you go. They will do whatever it takes to break people. Solitary is no joke.
... Schiffer. It turned out Judge Owen caused him to commit suicide hanging himself stripped of counsel and harassed by government on every front. Some people just cannot endure this type of treatment. This is how they get their pleas – threats and torture. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/22/entire-court-in-california-had-to-step-down-all-judges/I forced Judge Owen to publicly admit he was changing my transcripts on September 23, 2003. Judge Owen had thrown the Associated Press out on April 27th, 2000 creating a closed secret court proceeding that is totally illegal. As an American citizen I was supposed to have a public trial – good one! The AP actually printed that it was a closed court proceeding.
The AP reported I had stated from the outset Republic stole the money. You cannot get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knows where it is. That kind of money can only be wired, yet they pretended to be looking for something Republic had all the time. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/15/judge-rakoff-blasts-the-injustice-of-america/I agreed to allow a documentary film the FORECASTER to be made following me around since 2011 that is more of a movie when you see it for two reasons. To expose the legal system to the world and to expose the truth behind the shenanigans behind the curtain the rigging of the financial markets. I was not interested in a poor me film since I have moved on. I do not need the sympathy thank you. It has contributed to the expansion of my knowledge.
Yet I respect that if government could do this to me, who was very high-profile internationally, they could do it to anyone. They plastered pictures of me with Margaret Thatcher in the press as a warning to other US politicians to stay back. Whatever these people do, they do for a self-interest of power to sustain their 99% conviction rate. You have indeed a better chance at winning the lottery than a getting any kind of fair trial.
I was fortunate to be able to handle myself with respect to the rule of law. Others have not faired so well. The SEC in a civil case took all the lawyers away from Steven Fisher and drove him to commit suicide. http://armstrongeconomics.com/research/rule-of-law/goldman-sachs-v-armstrong/ | I kept track of all the countless market manipulations that the Untouchables were orchestrating. There were a number of us around the world who monitored what they were doing just to ensure we did not get caught up in their manipulations. Every phone call was recorded to ensure that if I was ever sued in what I thought was an honest court, I could prove my sources.
Every manipulation they did from rhodium to platinum to interest rates, Russia and politicians were always documented. The wealth of investigative material in an honest world would have brought down the New York Investment bankers and sent them away to prison for life if not wound them on the gallows for treason. All of this material was not gathered with any idea of using it against them – but to be able to advise clients what they were up to next.
At our March 1999 Tokyo Conference, we warned publicly that the “club” was then targeting the Japanese yen for the seasonal rollover. We advised our Japanese client to lock in their trade to defeat that manipulation. They did and the yen moved from the 116 level up to 124 causing massive losses to the “club”. Here is our slide presentation for that Conference in Tokyo.
... the SEC requested Alan Cohen to be the receiver who just so happened to be their hand picked judge’s Richard Owen’s former law clerk.
It then came out early on that Alan Cohen somehow found out I had given audio tapes covering the organized trading of the “club” manipulating markets and threatened my lawyers if they did not produce all the tapes, they were to be thrown in prison. Everyone I had spoke to about the manipulations on an ongoing basis had been documented. That would have been enough to shut down the New York Investment Bank manipulations. Phone calls with numerous dealing desks around the world documented every manipulation and scam they had pulled off from bribing government official to targeting countries. It was not my intent to run to the authorities and say here is the evidence to shut down the bankers. This was to purely advise clients when to duck.
It certainly appears highly suspicious to everyone that Alan Cohen would then be appointed a board member of Goldman Sachs head of Global Compliance when Goldman would NEVER had hired someone from the outside who clearly did not even understand markets. Alan Cohen liquidated the open yen positions we had in our accounts assuming they were speculation when they were a hedge. He lost I believe $100 million in short order. How could Goldman hire someone who did not even know the difference between a hedge and a speculative trade.
... all the evidence we gathered that would have put all the bankers in prison for life, magically disappeared in the collapse of the SEC Building World Trade Cent 7 that amazingly was not even hit by an plane in the 911 attack. This has been yet another part of the amazing coincidence behind everything in this case. Our computers and all the evidence in our case, including the evidence gathered documenting more than a decade of organized manipulations were amazingly destroyed in the only building that was never hit by anything nor was there any major fire. This in itself has led to countless suspicions about what really went on behind the collapse of the SEC offices in World Trade Center 7. Here is a video on this strange set of circumstances plus a letter from the SEC claiming all evidence in my case was destroyed, ... |
I know if I turned over the [model’s] source code, they could kill me ... http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/It took me more than 10 years to get that partially overturned only when I submitted transcripts of their employees on phone calls deciding what account to hide their losses in, they had the audacity to argue I could not even show these transcripts to a court! They were hiding losses in accounts where there was never supposed to be any trading. (09-1260 Sealed exhbiits).
They would never go to trial and were simply indefinitely imprisoning me until I would say whatever they demanded. The Second Circuit decision was done by George Bush’s cousin – Judge John Walker, Jr. wrote the opinion in which even now Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor disagreed writing: “Judge Walker’s opinion suggests that there is no discernible outer bound on a court’s inherent power to detain a contemnor indefinitely.”
Why would Cohen never produce an order? Because behind closed doors they could demand things they did not want to admit publicly. Here is an email confirming they wanted me to turn over the SOURCE code to our model or they would shut down Princeton Economics (Hecht Emails).
I appealed the contempt to the Supreme Court and Judge Walker’s insane opinion that judges could do as they liked and the Constitution did not apply. The Supreme Court ordered the government to reply. http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/the-rapidly-approaching-demise-of-japan-2/Like Goldman Sachs has infiltrated governments worldwide, in Japan, it is MOF that is close to the bankers and it is MOF that has always controlled government. Kenji Eda to publish a book in March entitled: “Finance Ministry Mind Control: The frightening methods of finance ministry bureaucrats, who brainwashed Prime Minister Noda to engineer the tax increase.” This indicates the truly realization of what is taking place in Japan and why Japan will collapse into a final 26 year economic low.
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In the case of Princeton Economics, MOF issued a letter saying that $30 billion in notes had been sold and $10 billion was supposed to be on deposit at Republic Bank in New York. They sent their letter to the Federal Reserve many believe intentionally for retaliating against our forecast delivered live in Tokyo that the LDP would lose power and that meant also MOF. When MOF lost power in 1998, it appears they deliberately lied to the Federal Reserve and then tried to pretend it was a mistake. For an agency in charge of manipulating the yen, it was not plausible to have made a decimal error in a calculation of this magnitude. They caused Republic to panic, who then stole about $1 billion grabbing what they thought they could and ran to the US authorities who simply filed charges without ever picking up the phone to speak to a single note-holder. To then find out that MOF then said sorry, they made a mistake on the calculation of the yen to the dollar and it was off on a decimal place was not plausible. They turned $3 billion in notes into $30 billion – 3 time the value of Republic Nstional Bsnk thst was sold to HSBC for $10 billion. When the dust settled, it turned out to be $3 billion sold, only $1 billion outstanding, and HSBC/Republic grabbed that, had to plead guilty and return the funds to receiver 100% immunity from the US government.
It was widely believed among our clients in Japan that MOF was deliberately trying to stop Princeton forecasts that they too did not like in retaliation for our forecast that the LDP would lose & MOF with it. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/04/conspiracy-or-just-one-step-at-a-time/Yes, the CIA wanted me to build a computer for them after our model predicted the collapse of Russia That the FT broadcast in advance on its front page of the second section. True I declined. It is also true that within 6 months PEI was attacked. I have a copy of the slide presentation prepared by the lawyers for Republic National Bank that outright lied misrepresenting their illegal trading as me to hide those losses from the Japanese when I owned the accounts – not the Japanese.
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Safra then had to reduce his personal shares by $1 billion and agree to indemnify HSBC. Why? If the public got anything less, then they would have sued Republic/HSBC and the truth would come out. So Edmond took the haircut personally to prevent any lawsuit by shareholders.
I have the documents.
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The Princeton office was raided and Socrates was unplugged and taken to a special lab in NYC located in the World Trade Center – the old Saloman Brother’s building. They turned it on and discovered it had self-destructed. They then in writing demanded I turnover the source code or PEI would be shut down. I said go ahead, you will never get the code.
So here you have evidence that this has nothing to do with pretend missing money. The US press ignored the simple fact that how could you get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knows where it is? That is a 747 full of cash. Was I supposed to walk into the bank with a brown paper bag?
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in reality the notes were in yen not dollars and now Republic only needs to pay $650 million but the yen remained the same. Then 30 days later, it is now $606 million. Owens handed HSBC $400 million in profits belonging to Princeton.
Amazingly, when it comes to the banks, suddenly the government lawyers understand the transactions were in yen not dollars. Did they release me? Of course not. They would have to then admit they were wrong from the outset. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/07/12/so-who-really-tried-to-blackmail-yeltsin-takeover-russia-nsa-cia-or-investment-bankers/Perhaps the number one question I always get about the ordeal I went through and the sheer chaos that surrounded everything, was just who really was behind the plot to blackmail the former head of Russia Boris Yeltsin to stop him from running for reelection in 2000 and hand-pick Boris Abramovich Berezovsky? It is true I even had a meeting with the US Attorney Office on the subject when they realized that Republic National Bank and Edmond Safra had set up even Bank of New York as the center piece in the plot. As the players that surrounded me have mysteriously died, hanged themselves, been imprisoned, released, just saying they were denied a fair trial without explanation as with the nurse that supposedly killed Safra, this wild plot is still the classic who-done-it that may not be solved until someone gets the secret files tucked away on this one.
We cannot leave out Edmond Safra’s own mysterious murder in Monaco (Death in Monaco) that took the fire company hours to reach being just 10 minutes away while his more than 20 bodyguards were all given the night off and reported bullets in his body with his nurse saying Russians dressed as ninjas showed up.
What I do know is there appears to have been a plot to take over Russia and that came from sources directly in Russia at the time. My case began September 13th, 1999 and Safra was killed December 3rd. Within a week the government moved to put me in contempt and stop my request for a Speedy Trial. It came out in court that bullets were left in my mailbox to warn me to shut up. But I was in the public spot light so they created a contempt and threw me in [prison without a trial] to suspend everything. Suvy please don’t waste my time again with your laziness. You are younger than me with more free time to burn. And you are the student. Please respect that reality.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98896@Suvy,
Well I have only been writing since years ago on Michael's blog about the need for decentralized systems and simulated annealing being nature's only known optimization method for dynamic systems. I have mentioned Taleb's Antifragility both in this blog and on my "blog" in the "Information Is Alive!" essay.
The more degrees-of-freedom in a system, the more granular adjustments to change can be.
You raise the fundamental natural quagmire that capital follows a power-law distribution, because the majority of people are contented to not devote their vocation to capital accumulation and the Iron Law of Collective Political Economics.
The way nature deals with this is by destroying (decaying) capital at a sufficient rate such that capital aggregation can't subsume innovation. When you have central banks that have been captured by the large capitalists, they attempt to violate this natural decay. They do fail in the end but not without great overshoot and dislocation since the process is a discontinuous event. For example, the capitalists can accumulate as much fiat and hard assets as they want, but this genre of capital is decaying and losing value in the fledgling knowledge age. Knowledge can't be financed, and thus can't be printed by central banks.
So we really don't have to do anything. Nature has been winning since the beginning of the dawn of time thus I doubt nature will lose this time around.
We don't like the waves of boom and bust that result from this epic battle between capital aggregation and nature's "it will grow wings and fly away", but nature never promised us a boring, smooth ride.
Relish the discontinuities. These are the time great fortunes are lost and made. I've been preparing.
In more concrete terms, I expect technological innovation on the concept of money as I have been alluding to decentralized crpto-currency. The world simply won't be able to agree on a global, centralized, digital, real-time retail digit fast enough any other way. The global monetary reset will come far too late to fulfill the need for a this by the high tech sector well before 2032. We will begin trading our knowledge decentrally. You can see the beginnings of this in terms of trade on social networks and for example smartphone apps. The 3D printers are coming. Etc.. I can't see it all, but I expect massive acceleration of this as we write this.
Note there will be fiat monetary reset for that old world sector of the economy, which will probably still be significant in relative size compared to the knowledge economy even by 2032 but small enough that prosperity has taken over and we can stop the wars that will occur between now and then.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-99056For current 51.6 year Private wave, sovereign debts all over the world are doing pretty good. I am not sure I understand what he means then. The Private wave is a shift away from government. We can see governments being overthrown, riots, sovereign debt collapses already. Each downturn in the ECM (1981.35, 1989.95, 1998.55, 2007.15, 2015.75, 2024.35, 2032.95) will see greater contagion and the core economies will eventually be taken down. Each upturn (1985.65, 1994.25, 2002.85, 2011.45, 2019.05, 2027.95) will see a temporary deadcat bounce for government. After 2032 we get a waterfall capitulation so that we hit rock bottom and can begin a move back towards Public assets and trusting government—government will be much smaller percent of GDP by then. The early seeds of the failure of government began as early as the beginning of the sovereign bond bubble with peaking interest rates in 1981 (inflation due to baby boomers entering the work force), Japan's peaking in 1989, the institution of hedonics in 1994 in the USA to obscure the level of CPI inflation, Long Term Capital Management fiasco that almost set off a global contagion in 1998, etc.. all were right on time as expected by the global ECM model. He also has country specific models which have different phases.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98551...believe convicted felons on claims... He did a plea bargain to get out of jail. He was never convicted with evidence. In fact, among other numerous anomalies in his favor, he even confronted the corrupt judge in his court showing proof the judge was changing the court record, and the judge couldn't deny it. You have a habit lately of making proclamations without sufficient understanding of the subject matter.There’s always a tradeoff between precision and accuracy. You apparently do not understand mathematically what the terms mean.
Precision is related to the standard deviation and accuracy is a function of the sampling rate and sampling interval, because the Shannon-Nyquist theorem informs us that aliasing error (i.e. loss of accuracy) occurs if we sample below twice the highest frequency and for less duration than double the longest-tail.
So precision is a function of the variability of the data set. And accuracy is a function of the sampling quality. Armstrong's model has sampled massive amounts of data from the entire recorded history of mankind. The precision of the model is dictated by nature. Apparently nature has some very precise cycles around the movement of international capital flows and the business cycle.I agree with you on the US incarceration problem (especially who it targets). It’s largely a result of the drug war... It wasn't until after the massive DHS grants following 9/11 (Federal Dept of Homeland Security) that so many local law enforcement departments started to obtain heavy artillery such as armored tank-like vehicles. And it is well documented (Gary Webb, Oliver North, etc.) that the drug war was another massive corruption involving the government, HUD, etc, but I won't detail that in this blog (please don't debate me on that minutiae here, email me if you want)....but that’s got little to do the structural advantages of the US (primarily geographic, but others exist as well). No matter what idiot you’ve got running policy, you can’t screw up having the largest navigable waterway across the Greater Mississippi Basin or bordering two oceans on two different sides or having some of the world’s most fertile farmland in the world (Kansas). Just look how the Perónists have bankrupted Argentina, once one of the richest countries in the world with a similar massive swath of fertile plains (they even have the tornadoes).
But you are way off the mark by targeting physical resources and transport. That is all very low value. We are in the fledgling knowledge age and all high value is created in high tech. The old resource based and industrial economy is peanuts and will become ever more so. So this NSA crap and now the drive to regulate the internet as a public utility is going to kill the high tech goose that laid the golden eggs. Did you notice India just orbited Mars with a project cost of only $74 million. Reality check your hubris.
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The physical evidence merely confirms that he was facing forward, which is consistent with the witness who said he was falling forward with his hands under his belly as he had already been shot. The audio recording confirms there was a pause, then more shots fired. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Michael_BrownIt is clear that Brown caused his own demise and was at fault. However, it is also very likely that the officer proceeded to murder him after he was already sufficiently wounded and falling to the ground. Police officers are dealing with the following statistic. http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6160That 2% is responsible for almost all of 52% of U.S. homicides. Or, to put it differently, by these figures a young black or “mixed” male is roughly 26 times more likely to be a homicidal threat than a random person outside that category – older or younger blacks, whites, hispanics, females, whatever. If the young male is unambiguously black that figure goes up, about doubling.
26 times more likely. I agree with the non-indictment because this officer is a product of the training and culture of the militarized "peace" officers we have now in the USA. It is not his personal doing, but rather an outcome of how he has been trained to act and the culture of the system we have now. As the USA economy turns down after 2015.75, we are going to see in the USA an increase in violence, police killings, and rioting. This will escalate and not be a one-time event. |
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The physical evidence merely confirms that he was facing forward, which is consistent with the witness who said he was falling forward with his hands under his belly as he had already been shot. The audio recording confirms there was a pause, then more shots fired. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Michael_BrownIt is clear that Brown caused his own demise and was at fault. However, it is also very likely that the officer proceeded to murder him after he was already sufficiently wounded and falling to the ground. Police officers are dealing with the following statistic. http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6160That 2% is responsible for almost all of 52% of U.S. homicides. Or, to put it differently, by these figures a young black or “mixed” male is roughly 26 times more likely to be a homicidal threat than a random person outside that category – older or younger blacks, whites, hispanics, females, whatever. If the young male is unambiguously black that figure goes up, about doubling.
26 times more likely. I agree with the non-indictment because this officer is a product of the training and culture of the militarized "peace" officers we have now in the USA. It is not his personal doing, but rather an outcome of how he has been trained to act and the culture of the system we have now. As the USA economy turns down after 2015.75, we are going to see in the USA an increase in violence, police killings, and rioting. This will escalate and not be a one-time event. |
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Users become accustomed to the simplifying unification of accessing any content via the web browser. This provided some benefits for developers and content authors too as they could "code once, run every where". But this had the tradeoff of retarding innovation on those areas that would require stepping outside the web browser’s myopically designed security sandbox or require a different model of interaction that could interopt well with high latency transport. Many even myopically cheered that this security sandbox was a major advantage. There were some attempts such as Flash, ActiveX plugins, Silverlight, etc but these lacked the holistic purpose, demand, and system design that could cross the chasm to simplifying unification via sufficient market adoption. I am positing that mobile apps, and more likely Android apps in particular, is a paradigm which is crossing the chasm. And even migrating towards the desktop and laptop to bring further unification. I think you are overstating the importance of the "user experience" and discounting the value provided by "robot experience" (by robot I mean the indexing and search engines). One of the most important factors of the growth of "web" was that HTML became some approximation of the lowest common denominator of information interchange. XML family of standards tried, but failed to improve on the HTML model with this regard. I don't want to devalue your insight, but here is a recent example of "UX uber alles" problem: http://torrentfreak.com/fail-mpaa-makes-legal-content-unfindable-google-141122/exhibited by the "over applification" of the user experience. I'm sorry for the ugly, hastily coined word. I don't know the better term. But from my childhood I still remember a paper pop-up book for "Puss in boots" which could be animated by hands. It was very cute, but didn't meaningfully improve the classic text printed in the plain book. Edit: One more link from today that is tangentially related to the subject matter: http://news.slashdot.org/story/14/11/23/1714255/blame-america-for-everything-you-hate-about-internet-cultureI had thought of this, so it is good you raise the issue, so I can respond with my prior thoughts. 1. Those applications that require some advances in user experience does not eliminate those applications where standards for content make semantics more transparent. Both can continue to proliferate, i.e. we shouldn't prevent the former if requiring always the latter would make some applications not exist at all. 2. Those applications that require some advances in user experience could in many cases also publish stateless content (or any other standard for making semantics more transparent), e.g. an application for interacting with a forum offline or on high latency (for example to access it over a high latency truly anonymous network), could coexist with a website version of the forum. P.S. I hate pay walls and login walls when I am surfing the web for news or research. |
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I posit one of those opportunities is to interopt with a hypothetical high latency transport, which would have the benefit of being truly anonymous because Tor and low latency ostensibly can not be anonymous.
What kind of high latency numbers are you talking about? 10 seconds? 30 seconds? More? In my experience important data more often than not is also time critical in nature. Data on the internet ranges in time criticality. For example, posting new Likes and photos to Facebook is not that time critical, but Facebook interactive chat or a stock quotes application are time critical. There are two components to the latency on a high latency variant of Tor: 1. The greater number of hops (onion layers or nodes) between the client and the server requires some additional latency for each hop. 2. The randomization of when to forward each packet at each hop increases latency at each hop by the time window over which that randomization occurs. As the volume of traffic increases, the time window can shrink because the anonymity mix (of packets forwarded by the node) per unit time has increased. Let's assume the system can have an algorithm that attempts to choose paths through the nodes of the network that keep latency below 50ms per hop[1]. If that can be achieved, then assuming #2 is reduced to negligible as traffic volume increases, then 10 hops would be 0.5 seconds on average latency. 100 hops would be 5 seconds. Since the client and hidden service server each get to decide half of the onion layer path (with a rendezvous node in the middle), they can choose a latency and anonymity tradeoff that matches their application. |
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The sheeple don't care about being anonymous... They don't need to care. They only need to be aided by the paradigm shift I am describing, specifically the usurpation of the top-down morass of web standards by the viral diversity of a programmable, secure platform such as Android which is on 80% of their smartphones. ...and most of the world is still in 3rd world areas with no net access other than wifi on a cheap smart phone at the local wifi cafe.
You see they need offline app solutions for their high latency network access. So extremely high latency in fact, sometimes they have to wait hours or days to reconnect to the net or connect over very slow GSM or overloaded 3G networks. The No votes come from neophytes who don't understand the issues. |
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Isn't it nice that you have this thread to talk to yourself in? It's like your own padded room! Very useful to contain your lunacy and prevent it from bothering the sane people.  You choose to remain ignorant of the poll on this thread and that 46% voted in agreement.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97706None of that really matters now. The reality is that Russia is on the verge of financial collapse.
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Also, we’re not headed towards World War III. I think we’re headed towards a bunch of Cold War-type scenarios and proxy wars. You’re seeing a containment policy on not just Russia, but China as well.
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With the containment policy towards China, it’ll be Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Australia, and a few other countries against China. In the case of Russia, we’re seeing the lines being drawn. The line being drawn in Ukraine is a HUGE advantage for both the US and Europe.
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Autocracy and authoritarianism doesn’t work over an extended period of time. Suvy you pontificate without considering reality of history as a catalog of repeating outcomes.
1. The entire world is on the verge of economic collapse. Historically when countries implode economically, they start an external hot war to turn national disgust into patriotic sacrifice which is what we will see in those countries which are unified internally (e.g. Putin has 80% approval rating, Japanese and Chinese are still patriotic to the extreme of being xenophobic). The USA instead will fracture internally as the disagreement over socialism (Obamacare, police state, etc) reaches the boiling point.
2. As the global economy implodes, the price of oil falls, North America's fracking and oil sands become uneconomic (below about $75/bbl). One of the pillars of the USA remaining relatively stronger was its recent upsurge in fossil fuel production.
3. Russia and China are nuclear powers. Japan and Australia are not and the rest you mentioned have no military capability except India which has no incentive to enter a hot conflict with China. Russia has been flying their nuclear bombers close to USA's West Coast over the past year or so.
4. Russia and China are doing deals with countries all over the world. They both recently inked deals for example in Argentina.
5. The USA is now approaching a totalitarian regime (with its true nature as a police state to be more pronounced after 2015.75 as the USA economy starts to head down).
6. I have no idea what is your justification that wars need to remain cold? That was only the incentive while debt and global commerce were expanding. Now that everything turns down, the incentive to keep war muted is lost.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97869Suvy, I agree with you that the USA was more diverse (not controlled by a few oligarchs) which made it more competitive. Unfortunately the socialism has taken over and the USA is losing the freedoms (to innovate) that made us the most competitive. As the USA economy turns down after 2015.75, the police state and socialism will become more prominent and start to drag even more severely on the economy and plundering the high tech sector that made the USA strong. For example, I guess you haven't been paying attention, e.g. Obama is ready to regulate the internet as a public utility using executive power to do so bypassing Congress.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98048“Suvy I already provided links on this page that showed the cyclic model since the 1980s has been accurately predicting events even a decade into the future If you are truly rational and believe in the scientific method”
Yea, methods like that are inherently unscientific. You can show me all the “evidence” you’ve got, but this is just backtested BS. There’s ZERO statistical validity to such nonsense. Since Michael didn't accept my prior reply on your assertion of “ZERO statistical validity”, let me phase it in a more concrete manner. Armstrong claims he trained an A.I. model with $millions of data (or $100s of millions if inflation adjusted to today's dollar) that he acquired dating back from 1000s of years ago to present. He for example spent $10 million collecting ancient silver coins to construct an accurate chart of silver coinage during the Western Roman empire.
A.I. models are typically trained with a combination of methods including neural networks. A neural network is inherently a statistical model of the data it has been trained on.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98288@Suvy & @Csteven, Please tie this reply together with my other comments today. Although I agree the more acute economic adjustment will be in China (and Japan and Europe), going forward from that long-term China, Japan, and Asia will bottom and are on the way up, and the USA (and Europe) is systemically on the way down. The USA has an aging population and will eventually lose its high tech edge. And I also think there will be a massive brain drain out of the USA as the shakers and movers in the high-tech industry will jump ship as the NSA and Obama take control over the internet. I count myself as one who already did. I think there is coming shift where the incomes of the middle class of the developing world approaches critical mass especially as they start intertrading, e.g. the coming Asian Union free trade and employment migration zone starting 2015. The high tech sector is going to jump to greener pastures. China will correct (probably harder than Pettis' optimistic soft landing), then start moving up again probably within a decade or so, as the West falls over the cliff towards decadence. The new financial center of the world will move to Asia by or just after the global monetary reset by 2032.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98351
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-96710There’s one thing you forgot. Much of the debt has been securitized, so when one loan gets paid off, several others do as well. You need to take a look at the debt adjusted for this part of the financial system (both Steve Keen and Krugman talk about this, and Krugman is right on this occasion). I found the chart somewhere, but I can’t find it right now. It’s NOT the total debt/GDP (which runs at around 250% or so), but it accounts for the securitization–it should be around 170% or something around there. Ah thanks. So perhaps that explains why I have seen a global total debt figure from Armstrong of $158 trillion while I've been citing the $227 trillion total debt figure I had read at a WSJ blog.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98542@Jon
I suppose each of us has some confirmation bias, myself included. I caution you on being married to one asset class, because it can cause you to be defiant of the market and lose your shirt.
Armstrong actually doesn't think its very likely that gold will go much higher than $5000. And I agree. Because for gold to go as high as you are predicting would require the world be plunged into a Dark Age. But in Dark Ages, gold loses its value and food becomes money. There is only so far you can go with hard money before society resets the monetary system to satiate and address the problem that was making gold move higher, or society is unable to do so and we go over the cliff into the abyss of another 600 year Dark Age where for example only rice was money in Japan. This is because velocity of money and thus GDP falls off the cliff when hard money is hoarded.
Also don't rule out crypto-currency. This could radically influence the equation of the future monetary system. I am working in that sphere (as well as continuing to program mainstream social media applications) and I know more about what is developing behind the scenes that is not public yet. The key to making a crypto-currency really matter ties in with giving it a reason to be adopted as a currency (i.e. high velocity) by common people. Bitcoin lacked that widespread reason, as well as having technological deficiencies. I think the entire internet model will change (and is underway). |
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98048There’s ZERO statistical validity to such nonsense. You haven't studied the implementation of the ECM model so you have no way of knowing what statistical models are used. I haven't either, because it isn't open source (yet). But Armstrong has said astutely that all the economists are using statistical models with data that only goes back less than 100 years, so their models can't possibly be valid. That means he (after spending over a $billion in today money) on collecting data since Mesopotamia has found that that the correct statistics requires a very long sampling interval.What I said is that it won’t be as difficult for the US as it will be for others (for many good reasons). I guess you haven't noticed how much more developed the police state is in the USA (with a 99% conviction rate and paramilitized local "peace" officers) as compared to any where else, even communist China has a lower percentage of the population incarcerated.@Jon
I agree Armstrong writes in disjoint blog posts which makes his theme incoherent to most readers.
You need to go to his ECM models page and understand that model first, so his disjointed blog posts can make sense.
2011 was the start of a 4.3 year turn up in the ECM which is currently in a 51.6 year overall Private wave.
2007.15, 2015.75, and 2024.25 will all be turns down in the ECM and will mean renewed contagion for government (Public) woes, getting worse each time. Until we finally reset the world monetary system and start anew in a 51.6 year Public wave starting 2032.
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I've gotten some feedback from at least one of my supporters that he is not able to quickly discern the significance of the OP (readers should also read the linked OP). Until recently the majority of the user demand for traffic on the internet has been HTML over HTTP, i.e. what I refer to in the OP as the stateless Web. That traffic is required to be low latency, because the caching mechanisms are not typically smart enough especially with dynamically changing content (e.g. forums, social networking sites) to give a satisfactory user experience if the transport between server and client is high latency. Yeah there are other protocols on the internet, such as SMTP which delivers email and doesn't require low latency transfer. And even P2P over UDP versus TCP/IP. But the majority of the market has been focused on HTML over HTTP. Users become accustomed to the simplifying unification of accessing any content via the web browser. This provided some benefits for developers and content authors too as they could "code once, run every where". But this had the tradeoff of retarding innovation on those areas that would require stepping outside the web browser’s myopically designed security sandbox or require a different model of interaction that could interopt well with high latency transport. Many even myopically cheered that this security sandbox was a major advantage. There were some attempts such as Flash, ActiveX plugins, Silverlight, etc but these lacked the holistic purpose, demand, and system design that could cross the chasm to simplifying unification via sufficient market adoption. I am positing that mobile apps, and more likely Android apps in particular, is a paradigm which is crossing the chasm. And even migrating towards the desktop and laptop to bring further unification. This opens up new opportunities for fast moving innovation outside the confines of the slowly innovating (top-down standards driven, e.g. W3C.org) web browser. I posit one of those opportunities is to interopt with a hypothetical high latency transport, which would have the benefit of being truly anonymous because Tor and low latency ostensibly can not be anonymous. The innovations might be so far outside the paradigm of the web browser content platform, that the web browser might not be able to incorporate such innovations without ceasing to be any semblance of what it was. If the web browser becomes essentially Android or something closer to what Android is, then the W3C (top-down, stifling morass) lost control. If Android (or something like it) is a standard that runs every where, then we haven’t lost the "code once, run every where" advantage. What is really accomplished is making the content platform more programmable with more granularity of modularity of Android APIs instead of the "all or nothing" monolithic imposition of the web browser APIs (by for example having a more holistic security sandbox model). |
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Medium size corporate taxes are much higher in Asia than I thought: http://business.inquirer.net/182452/ph-medium-firms-said-to-struggle-with-high-tax-ratesOf the Philippines’ total tax rate, 20.5 percent are profit taxes, 8 percent are labor taxes, while other taxes constitute the remaining 14 percent.
The nine other countries in the Asia Pacific with total tax rates higher than the Philippines were Palau (75.4 percent), Marshall Islands (64.8 percent), China (64.6 percent), India (61.7 percent), Micronesia (60.5 percent), Sri Lanka (56.6 percent), Japan (51.3 percent), Myanmar (47.7 percent) and Australia (47.3 percent), the latest report showed.
The Asia-Pacific average stood at only 36.3 percent. Globally, a standard company may have a total tax rate of 40.9 percent of profits, the report showed. The significance of that is I expected Asia to outshine the West because of a lower tax burden. Asia will outshine the West because it has lower sovereign debt and statutory unfunded social welfare obligations, but what this information above tells me is that the more significant leap forward will be for the decentralized knowledge based economy which will be nearly untaxable once we complete the implementation of the anonymous internet. Armstrong's model is being proven correct as the Philippines economy starts to turn down: http://business.inquirer.net/182456/ph-seen-posting-balance-of-payments-deficitThe Philippines faces a full-year BOP deficit for the first time in a decade. The last full-year deficit was seen in 2004.
“The dominant factors affecting the BOP are external in nature, specifically the normalization of monetary policy in the United States,” Tetangco told reporters.
He was referring to the gradual reductions in and recent halt of the US Federal Reserve’s monthly asset purchases. Interest rates have been on the rise due to the end of these asset purchases, which had previously flooded financial markets with freshly-printed cash.
As a result, cash that flowed to emerging markets since the Fed program have started to reverse, returning to advanced markets like the United States.
The country’s BOP position is a summary of all its transactions with the rest of the world.
For 2014, the BSP now sees the Philippines posting a deficit of $3.4 billion, compared to the previous forecast of a surplus of $1.1 billion.
“This is mainly due to developments in the capital account,” Tetangco said.
Latest data from the BSP showed that at the end of October, the country posted net outflows of foreign portfolio investments totaling $1.1 billion, compared to the $3.6 billion surplus posted in the same 10-month period last year.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97710Suvy I already provided links on this page that showed the cyclic model since the 1980s has been accurately predicting events even a decade into the future. If you are truly rational and believe in the scientific method, then you must adjust your wrong assumptions to the reality that has been observed and start performing your own tests with the model to continue to verify it predicts the future or disprove it.
Most readers and people in the West believe war and pandemic can't touch them. The model says they are in for a nasty awakening over the next 10 years. Tell your assumptions about the nature of war to the headless and limbless corpses in Ukraine or Iraq.
You love to predict economic hardship for others but don't think the USA will be harshly affected. Tsk, tsk. http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97707Resource scarcity is complete bull. We are moving into a higher tech knowledge based economy where resources are not the scarce asset. This changes everything in macroeconomics because knowledge can't be financed, so capital can't be aggregated.
Populations do come down when wealth increases, pandemics, and war, but they come back up again when those [conditions] abate.
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do you really think you can convince anyone on the internet that their opinion is wrong? Now you speak truth. You childish fools are bickering about whose dick is a millimeter. You will have bigger problems than that to deal with as the outcome of your socialist politics and illogic starts to take effect in the coming global economic collapse. Nothing you can say now will change the fact that this debate doesn't end until we see what predicament you fools are in about 3 - 4 years from now (we may get some early indication 2 years from now if you are in Europe or Japan). |
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I’d feel facetious and subject to accusation of being non-objectively biased if I did not acknowledge some serious security theatre I submitted an Android Issue on today. https://code.google.com/p/android/issues/detail?id=80335Documentation states, “There is no security enforced with these files. For example, any application holding WRITE_EXTERNAL_STORAGE can write to these files.” I understand files stored in the returned directory can be accessed by the user via explicit actions such as by connecting the device to a computer via USB or removing the SD storage card. Thus security can not be guaranteed in all cases for these files. However, there is a critically important scenario where security can and should be provided. Users may install an app and despite approving the WRITE_EXTERNAL_STORAGE permission, not realize they have just enabled that app to corrupt the data files of other apps that have stored external data files. Users are not programmers and thus do not think in terms of the implications of obscure logic. They may think that particular write permission gives that app permission to write date for itself to the external directory, but not presume it enables that app to corrupt the external data of other apps. Why should the user presume Android was designed stupid? In other words, the user likely views the write permission as a way for the user to get access to those data files with those aforementioned explicit actions, but not as permission to do unnecessary harm. The Unix design principles of least surprise and rule of silence apply: http://catb.org/~esr/writings/taoup/html/ch01s06.html#id2878339There is simply no reason to enable a trojan app to apply social engineering to trick the user into enabling something the user has no reasonable reason to assume would happen. For example, I would like to store an SQLite database on the removeable media because it enables the user to be sure that data has no traces even after being deleted. And because it enables the user to instantly remove that data from the system in a heartbeat in an emergency. And I think this is a very piss poor Android design that the user could unwittingly enable a trojan that would corrupt their data. Also note that many or most users are oblivious to the meaning of security permission prompts and confirm them always. In other words, WRITE_EXTERNAL_STORAGE permission should only apply to Environment.getExternalStoragePublicDirectory) directories. Since Kitkat it is no longer required for writing to the app’s own private external directory. |
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