That's how real futures should work, but is not how Bitcoin futures work.

Let's say Bitcoin's price is $10,000 right now and you buy 1 futures contract at $10,000. If at the end of the contract date Bitcoin's price has fallen to $7000 it means you have a 30% loss. If the price went up to $13,000 it means you have a 30% profit. In other words, you gain or lose the difference in price at the end of the contract date. It's gambling. It shouldn't be called a futures market.

The ETF we're waiting for has a set share price of $200,000 so it's not what people believe in. It's set as a requirement to make sure that the person sitting at home has little chances to invest in it.

The social media sentiment right now;

# when is the next bull run.
# will we break $20,000 this year?
# ETF will pump Bitcoin to whatever ridiculous amount.

This tickles my bearish side. If there wasn't an ETF coming up I would gladly open up a short right now.

Why do people speculate about an increase, ETF approval or bull run? Because they bought in already.

Why do people desperately want the price to break $20,000? Because they hold expensive coins they are looking to sell.

In other words, there is barely any buying power to initiate and maintain a bull run. Also, bull runs happen when dumb money isn't expecting it.

Yes, there is definitely some risk to it (probably more than usual), but one I'm willing to take. I know what risks I'm exposing myself to and I accept to swallow everything that comes out of it.

Most exchanges have upgraded their systems and trading engines after everything that happened last year, so I hope that we'll at least be able to count on some more platform reliability.

It's not as bad as it looks.

Institutions are often tied to very strict regulations that requires them to not participate in speculation, which basically means that they can't sell their shares in large quantities unless something has fundamentally changed and they are forced to do so to protect capital. In other words, some institutions used the not so fruity outlook as an excuse to secure a massive amount of profits while it's still hovering around all time high levels.

With how the money press is pumping so much value in the economy, it wouldn't surprise me to see Facebook's stock reach another all time high in the next 12 or so months.

Because being forced to pay tax is no different from extortion.

Usually what happens if people aren't willing to pay tax, the government makes sure they freeze your salary, your bank account, seize your stocks or other digital assets that are being controlled by a central party. It's a measure to make you pay because they can make life impossible for you if you don't, because what will you do when you are stripped and have nothing left? They can't do that with Bitcoin you hold yourself.

Instead of people worrying about governments, ignore them and mind your own business. Stay away from centralized shit and you'll be fine.

Lol. If they would disable bot activity, they would lose close to 90% of all their volume. The crypto market is more than ever a bot ruled market, and exchanges have no problems with it as long as these bots generate volume and fee income, because that's why they operate, it's a business.

People suck at trading, bots may suck too, but less than people so percentually you are more likely to make profit by having an algorithm trade for you.

We're dealing with a whole different category of "investors" now and prepare for worse. They don't care about decentralization or centralization. They don't care about utility either. They probably don't even know what all this means.

They just want to buy cheap shit that grants them dividends in form of airdrops, and currently Ethereum and EOS are leaders in that segment. Bitcoin used to be that, but is no longer a dumb money plaything due to its steep entry point, which is why most dumb money ignore Bitcoin completely.

Good thing however is that dumb money always tend to choose the wrong vehicle to enter, and they'll pay for it eventually. It just takes longer than expected, that's all. Altcoins historically get replaced by something 'better'. NMC, NVC, TRC, FTC, DOGE, etc. They are all wasted, and so will all current tokens end, but they have more to offer so it takes longer.

Theoretically tier two/three/four layers can process 1 billion transactions per second, but that's under perfect circumstance which we in the real world will never be able to replicate.

If LN at some point turns out to process ~10,000 real world transactions per second, we can be sure that it will boost Bitcoin's adoption as currency to record highs.

But seriously, how much more than 10,000 transactions per second do we need? Even 100 is enough to stimulate mass adoption. We have to accept that not everyone in the world will use Bitcoin, just like how not everyone in the world is using PayPal, MasterCard, Visa, etc. Every coin will end up doing the best for its own following, just like how centralized payment services are doing that for their own following.

The most important aspect of evolution in the crypto industry will be to make sure that we can swap from digital currency to digital currency from within our wallet clients, all to avoid dealing with centralized parties.

Transactions per second is a noob metric. If it really mattered Bitcoin wouldn't be able to grow out to where it is right now. People don't *yet* want to spend Bitcoin, they hoard it because it's digital Gold. This is enough utility value for Bitcoin to keep growing. LN is just an expansion to create even more utility value because it will allow Bitcoin to function as money better than ever before.

Which is exactly why people never see their wealth increase substantially. All you are doing is allowing the elite to build up value because you are taught that diversification is a good thing.

It's only risky if you are buying with the intention of using it as short term flip.

My point is that as average joe you won't be gaining anything by investing in things that don't offer any sort of financial boost to bring you further in life.

If you are at a point in life where you have build up a great deal of wealth, then you can start looking into more stable forms of investments because there is more to lose than to gain. Average joes aren't in such a position, and they won't ever be there if they do what the mass thinks is appropriate for them to do. People need to get rid of their herd mentality in order to succeed.

It all depends on the charts you're looking at. If you purely focus from last year's peak to where we are right now, you'll see a clear pattern where we constantly hit lower lows and lower highs. In order to actually jump out of this bearishly tinted down trend, we have to break $10,000 without it being a false (short lived) breakout. It's not going to be easy, but it's not impossible either. Give it time and we'll see where we go from here; don't consider the market to be out of the danger zone already.

If we dip below $6000 again, prepare for much lower levels.

$10,000 is a psychological barrier where various outcomes are possible.

It could be that it is a point at which we will start correcting, but it could also trigger a relief pump to around $11,000 shortly after. If we happen to reach these levels well before the SEC's decision, I'll short Bitcoin without waiting what the SEC will come up with, because I don't think there is much more to gain than a price slightly over $10,000 (give or take 5-10%) with how this ETF even if approved won't go live this year.

In other words, make sure that you sell the news before the news comes out.

It doesn't make much sense to me with Bitcoin offering far greater returns than all the listed options could ever generate.

Seriously, what returns do you expect to get from Gold, Bonds and real estate? Even after 5-10 years you are sitting on nothing but hot air. You won't ever build up wealth as average joe by investing in the existing options at this point in time. Currently with crypto being as hot as it is right now, it's probably the only ever opportunity for average joes to generate more wealth than ever before. If you don't take this opportunity, you won't progress in life and you will remain a nobody.

It may sound harsh, but there is no other way to make an impact on people.

It's important to understand that experts or gurus in certain parts of an industry don't necessarily mean they are as knowledgeable in other industries.

Warren Buffett has done extremely well in his life, which I respect him for, but we shouldn't overexaggerate his investment skills.

Everything with fundamental value will keep going up, and the only thing he's doing is position himself in companies offering that fundamental value. You only need patience here, which is quite an easy task if you during the years scoop up dividends that you can reinvest directly to generate more income.

You know what he's doing when his favorite stocks are going down? He buys more because he knows that their value will go back up.

What do people here when Bitcoin is going down? They sell because they are too afraid to just let the market correct naturally.

Bitcoin has that fundamental value and we have enough years functioning as evidence. It doesn't matter what price you buy at, you'll profit later on anyway.

It doesn't really matter in the end. Bitcoin is not a project and doesn't need any kind of nonsense support from shitty local governments.

I'm sure that if Bitmain starts lobbying there and throws around with money, that they can start mining as soon as possible. The underlying problem is that they had plenty of electricity to sell, but realized they sold it well below what it is worth with so much miner demand, and are now trying to squeeze out some extra money by doing this shit. This doesn't seem like a stable environment for serious mining operations, so the only thing they do is shoot themselves in the foot.

No. Investors just buy the share with cash. What happens in the background is that exchanges taking care of the custodian aspect will make sure that they have enough Bitcoins in their reserve to back up each share 1:1 based on the latest coin>fiat ratio.

According to the SEC a security is something where you give one central entity your money, and you get something back that can be sold either directly or indirectly for a higher price. I think that's pretty much what I agree on as well if we talk about securities. I'm not really sure what project you are referring to, but if the tokens are tradable, it is pretty much a security.

If you look at all the tokens circulating, they either trade far above or far below their utility value, so the value of a tree isn't really important here, people's greed is.

The entry point is based on cash, which means that the higher the price goes up, the value one ETF share accounts for in Bitcoin goes down.

$200,000 in fiat right now buys you 25BTC at a rate of $8000 a pop. $200,000 in fiat buys you 20BTC at a rate of $10,000 a pop, and so forth.

It's not really a difference. The SEC knows beforehand what Bitcoin is. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand that Bitcoin doesn't fit in the category of securities.

Ethereum & Co however require firm investigation with how they are set up and will continue to evolve. In my opinion Ethereum is a security based on how it got distributed, but the SEC pretty much ignores that and looks at what it is today. I'm glad already that the shitty ICO's on Ethereum are securities and will take some legal action in order to set one up within the states.

Carlton, don't waste much time on these Bitcoin futures. It's nothing more than a product that belongs in a casino rather than such a professional platform.

It's a tool for people with a bunch of cash betting on the price to go up or down. They either make money or lose money. Nothing more nothing less.

Good use of futures is already being utilized by miners. They contractually up front sell you x number of coins for $7500 a pop, and the deal gets completed at the end of the contract term. That's how they hedge a steep decrease in price, but of course, it can also work against you if the price suddenly starts pumping. Either way, it offers miners at least a peace of mind.

I'm quite sure that the increase we started recently will last till next month, and probably stagnates just before the ETF decision.

If the SEC comes up with good news, we might see a mild pump, but don't expect any fireworks because the ETF market won't go live this year.

If the SEC comes up with bad news, we can be nearly sure that the price will tank back and people will instantly turn into ultra bears, because that's how this market works.

My plan is this;

Short Bitcoin one day before 'deadline'.

Positive news = liquidate my position directly with a small loss and go long.

Negative news = profit for me.

The risk in my case is just a few % at most, and for that reason perfectly doable. The profit potential is far greater.

It's entirely impossible. Even if you 'correctly' predict the market, it's still based on luck. If people remain realistic with their predictions, the odds of being right or wrong are close to 50%. The more unrealistic your predictions become, the lower the odds become of being right or wrong.

That's why it pays off to conservatively look at the market as a whole. Great thing is that you can limit your risks as much as possible by using a fraction of your balance to go long or short with a mild leverage count. This however only applies to people understanding the risks of using leverage. It's definitely not something to underestimate. The higher the leverage count is that you use, the sooner you'll be busted out of your position if the market goes absolutely nuts in towards the opposite direction. Busted in case of BitMex means that you lose your entire trade.

I don't see the point of focusing on something that won't ever happen and doesn't need to happen.

Who cares what fiat is doing when we can use Bitcoin right now as money already? It's people's toxic mentality that needs to change, because the less people spend their coins, the less merchant incentive there is to jump on board. In other words, people should look in the mirror and understand what the underlying problem of everything is. It's YOU.

Everything right now is in our own hands and we can make or break this ecosystem. Governments must be laughing their asses off with how people here just use crypto for speculative purposes.