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3641  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: November 12, 2014, 08:51:29 PM
Oh my God, please make it be historical 3

No. Too early.
3642  Economy / Economics / Re: My bank account's got robbed by European Commission. Over 700k is lost. on: November 12, 2014, 08:44:25 PM
I think this article fits this thread: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-12/russell-napier-declares-november-16-2014-day-money-dies

Summary: the upcoming G20 meeting in Australia is supposed to bring new rules on the ranking of bank deposits. By all means bail-in-able in case of bank trouble, leading to the question: why hold money in a bank account instead of cash?
3643  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: November 12, 2014, 08:38:16 PM
Case #2. We had completed Historical 2 (from historical 1 $1200 high) in tripple zigzag wedge. And there should be some fucking impressive historical 3.


what does this mean?!??!!? is it bullish or bearish?

This would be massively bullish...
3644  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 12, 2014, 07:04:09 PM
How big is that comet?
3645  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 12, 2014, 06:08:02 PM
Where is Adam when you need him?
3646  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][MOON] Mooncoin: You know where it's headed! KGW exploit FIXED 4/3/2014 on: November 10, 2014, 08:51:36 PM
The order book @ Cryptsy is getting a bit thin. A lot of air until below 10 Litoshi. Mind the Gap...
3647  Economy / Speculation / Re: One year ago... on: November 10, 2014, 08:48:52 PM
What coin do you recommend at this point that you see as relatively cheap? with Bitcoin im not going to achieve anything by just holding, or at least not unless I want to be a rich grandpa. I need a relatively low price coin that may blow up in the future. What about Monero?

Peercoin has a really good price at the moment. Also, 0.000008 BTC per NuShare is a really good price, so pay attention --- if the price goes near 0.000008 BTC, buy in. I bought 6 BTC worth of NuShares a couple of weeks ago and now they are worth ~11 BTC, easy money. I don't know about other cryptos because you have to know the devs and community in order to make a good investment and not just gamble. I personally have been into Sunny King's coins ever since PeerCoin was created and I know that those dudes are constantly working on projects to make their coins succeed in the long run.

Missed two good Peercoin runs in the past by dropping out too soon. Won't happen a third time and indeed, Peercoin is active but also attractively priced.
3648  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Litecoin - a lite version of Bitcoin. Launched! on: November 10, 2014, 09:41:40 AM
So, how many times has LTC died?
3649  Economy / Speculation / Re: One year ago... on: November 09, 2014, 08:01:56 AM
One year later and beany bean is still no less than 1/4th of peak price. I am impressed.
3650  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: XMR baghodler reporting in- the uncensored version on: November 09, 2014, 07:10:21 AM
I don't get all the fuzz. How can the (very normal) inflation curve of XMR be considered a major, major problem. Only because price has been grinding lower and lower and some whales showing their love by asking for a reduced inflation rate?

This tech is brand new. There is no real world adoption yet with devs honing the code on a continuing basis. Awareness is growing but the market, together with the entire altcoin market, is grinding lower.

Look, the inflating curve was known from the start. If your early adopter investment disappoints,  sell and leave or just hold and go with the program. A negative development of a few people's investment should never be a reason to fork. The current price is just what the market dictates. The loss of the early adopter is gain of the new investor. There is no 'right' price for XMR other than the market price.

The issue could be price development. Well, start contributing to things that benefit development then. Only this will bring XMR further. Just limiting coin issue only because a whale perceives it beneficial for its investment will do more damage than good. I think the devs and community understand this perfectly well.

3651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2014, 06:42:12 AM
Trading works. A trader can be successful, and what is needed, is to be able to anticipate the future. This is the basis of free market capitalism. If you are good at anticipating, you win, if you are bad, you lose. If you consistently lose, you are out out of the game and your capital is transferred to others, who are better. This is how all investing works, and what is to be anticipated, when all is said and done, is the demand for the different consumer goods. If you are good, you take part in forming the capital structure to produce the most consumer goods with the best balance between the different types of consumer goods.

What we the traders and holders do, is to increase the value of bitcoins, therefore we direct capital to the miners, who build the magnificent bitcoin mining network, and to the service companies. We anticipate that this is advantageous for traders of all goods and services, and therefore ultimately advantageous for the consumers.

The method we use to predict, is not important. Charting, fundamentals, logic or feelings, it does not matter any more than the reasons a gene has, when it chooses to mutate into a variant. It doesn't choose, in fact it does nothing consciously, because it has not the capability to think, but still a gene's code  can either adapt and prosper, or die.

Just as with the genes in the nature, you can never declare a final winner. You can declare a tentative winner, by sampling the world's gene pool and find the gene which is most numerous.

In investing, your status is always temporary. You may have a lot of value at a certain point, but the asset that you own, can depreciate. You can sell out, but then you have money, which can still depreciate. And your competitor might in the mean time find a winner asset that appreciate more than your's. That is why capitalists sometimes say, the one who has the most when he dies, wins. But death is also not definitive, because a fortune can outlive one individual, and living a prosperous life in your own psychical understanding of that concept, is also on the scale.

In bitcoin, it is difficult to predict, because it is a fundamentally new thing, and the liquidity on the market is not known. Liquidity here is the ease with which you can sell, or convert to other money or goods. The daytraders or other traders buy and sell, but in the long term they hold, on average, a number of coins which is not changing, and thus does not add real liquidity. You would think that you could easily sell 30K coins over a few weeks, when the daily trade volume is hundreds of thousands of coins. But apparently, that didn't work. The guy with 30K coins might think, when the price was 600, that his wealth was equal to 18 mill USD. But because of low liquidity, he could not convert at that price. Who could have known? Well now we know.

Daytraders could in theory take advantage of the resulting volatility, but they could not know what was in the head of the 30K seller, when and how much he would sell. It is not good enough to know afterwards, you have to know in advance, and I propose that nobody can know the daily variations.

Therefore a daytrader, as opposed to a long time, fundamentalist trader, can not know what he is doing, and his decisions are random, and produce random wins and losses. Now the big point: To be a daytrader, you have to sometimes have fiat, sometimes bitcoin, and sometimes a mix. So when there is a general uptrend, the daytrader is overall only half invested. A long time holder is fully invested. Therefore, a daytrader can not win as much as a holder. In a downtrend he will lose less, but in the long run, we will not have a downtrend. That is the holders prediction.



Some good points in this.
3652  Economy / Speculation / Re: What sort of event will trigger mass adoption? on: November 08, 2014, 01:49:46 PM
The next halving is more like March-April 2016. We are a bit ahead on schedule.
3653  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: November 07, 2014, 09:26:58 AM
Any plans to make that database integrated into GUI wallet, so people can use it simple?
For users who car run only "click and done", you'll (we'll) need that, so we can get more people in.
This way as it works now, it's too complicated for a lot of people.

Yes eventually the there will be a client with a simple GUI setup. There were some screen shots of the prototype start wizard here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg8835838#msg8835838

We definitely agree it is too complicated now for a lot of people. The current software is designed and intended solely for crypto enthusiasts and other technically inclined users.


The GUI looks great. But I can imagine that you focus on the internals first.
3654  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 06, 2014, 06:48:56 PM
i told you this was gonna happen:

Garrett Keirns isn’t the only bitcoin entrepreneur to come within the sights of the SEC, and some worry that his case may mark the beginning of a larger crackdown into the technically interesting and freewheeling world of crypto currency pre-sales—a crackdown that could affect promising Bitcoin 2.0 projects such as Ethereum, MaidSafe, and Counterparty.[/i]

http://www.wired.com/2014/11/crypto-ipos/

Just growing pains. Issuing shares and not expecting regulatory interest is foolish. Presale of new crypto currency or stakes in a network on the other hand is much more interesting. Is.it.similar to seeking equity or is it a simple exchange of goods?
3655  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: November 06, 2014, 10:11:32 AM
When will there be an official gui wallet for windows?
never.....

Why do you say so?
3656  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 07:30:07 AM
Hoarding is simply the same as saving. Savings are what makes capitalism a viable economic model. Inflation is a stealth tax from those who have last use of new money (the poor, middle class) to the pockets of those who have first use of new money (the banks, wealthy, government).

It is not quite so simple. Standard economists worry that if inflation becomes too low (or if there is deflation), incentive to hoard increases and incentive to invest drops, which could lead to negative growth, the bęte noire of capitalism.



The situation you refer to is only possible in a domain where there is an artificially enforced monopoly on the money supply, e.g. central bank, totalitarian capital controls, etc.

Free markets rapidly fill shortages of goods, monetary or otherwise, and correct mispricing.

Can't let that happen, can we?
3657  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2014, 11:38:26 PM
debt is good?
dear keynesians, this only would have worked if central banks could not print fiat out of thin air to lend it with interest to the government.

how often did the US has to change their debt ceiling in the last 3-4 years?
and its not only a US problem, pretty much every industry nation is nearing a debt crisis, which gonna explode sooner or later under their butt.

So every industrialized nation in the world is stupid and don't know The Truth about economics that you and some of your crustier friends do.
I suggest you start calling world leaders and educating them, it looks as if without your help, the world is heading for Armageddon.



P.S:  In the meantime, that rally sorta stopped rallying a while back Sad
P.P.S:  Maybe you can just email world leaders with YouTube links to "Money As Debt"?  Sounds like a plan?

Burying your head in the sand won't make the problem go away.
3658  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: November 05, 2014, 09:38:42 PM
The fact that conspirators carefully avoid leaving hard evidence doesn't make the claims true, either.

But if the state find a way to tame them, crypto could become dystopic.

I think it is better to focus on this question that the conspiracy that Bitcoin is a government tool for total domination.
3659  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2014, 09:34:48 PM
so i ask, if there are billions of SC's in action processing tx fees, where will all the badly needed tx fees come to support Bitcoin in the long run when the blockchain rewards are gone?

The BTC block reward will be more than enough to protect the network for another 20-30 years.

If after that time most transaction fees shift to MM'ed sidecoins to the extent that there are not enough fees on the main chain to support the main chain then one of 2 things will happen, either: 1) Adjustments will be made to shift MM fees from sidecoins to the main chain (after all sidecoins need this too since their protection is based on MM'ing with the main chain) or 2) some side chain will become the main chain since essentially the main chain was abandoned. Note: this wouldn't hurt BTC since at most 21M BTC would transfer over the 1:1 peg.

i actually think the underlying problem here is that some of us see Bitcoin as Sound Money who's sanctity is to be protected at all costs, like me, and others see it as an avenue to develop stocks, bonds, community currencies, assurance contracts, smart contracts, etc, etc.

if you don't buy into this view, then SC's seem like a natural thing.  who cares if somehow a little inflation, centralization, or trust requiring needs slip in the backdoor?

I only see bitcoin as Sound Money, it is the entire reason I support the project. If the concept is broken in the slightest I will abandon ship.

Sidechain's do nothing to effect the Sound Money aspect. Sidechains are sub-coins that only exist within the 21M supply limit and this is enforced with 1:1 pegging.

Altcoins (meaning new coins outside of the 21M limit) are the only real threat Bitcoin has, because they are the real threat that can inflate the money supply. 1 year ago I saw altcoin's as becoming a real problem and had second thoughts about the project because "anyone can create a coin".

However the past year has shown that network effects are working as intended, and I'm more comfortable with the altcoin threat not being a problem.

Once you understand that sidechains are just that "sub-coins to Bitcoins 21M controlled supply", then it is natural to see sidechains as part of the original Sound Money plan. They simply offer a mechanism to increase functionality without a hard fork. Period

This is very much my idea as well. Why are so many afraid of freedom?
3660  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2014, 01:47:42 PM
Not looking good...

Buyers of physical will - in the end - determine the price.
Good luck getting to "the end". ermember "markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

Yes. Most phyzz investors are not in the game for a dollar value (at least, not the current dollar).
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