Are we collapsed yet?  |
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Ahoy there bitmates! I've been at sea through two of the roughest storms a Captain has ever seen, storms that strike fear into the hearts of land lubbers and bilge rats aplenty. I tell no lies. When the seas were awash with bounty and the wind filled my sails I traded. Tis the height of prosperity I said to myself and 'ol Cap'n Doubloon needs a new sextant. Better weather came and I stamp my wooden leg when I think about the sextant I could've had, but when yar needs a sextant yar needs a sextant! The cats out of the bag many say and she still be hard sailing but listen to an old sea dog when I tells ya, HOLD FAST! So many doubloons being invested in ports, sails, lockers, man o wars, liners, anchors and ladders. The sailing of this year will not be the sailing of next year. Hold fast through the swells and keep your mind ship shape and Bristol fashion. When the new age of sail comes bringing safety to these seas watch the lubbers and bilge rats lining up at the dock to climb aboard  Old Captain Doubloon will be behind the helm of a clipper or will go down in this dinghy. Aye Shiver me timbers! |
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Is anyone on this forum a bull anymore? I can only think of a couple, such as risto.
I think the final warnings are finally getting through. All you can do is warn the people so many times, after that, it's up to them to take action.
Pathetic indeed. |
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Zero
Long way to go troll! |
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I got in because I loved the concept of bitcoin and recognized the inevitability of it. A digital nongovernmental peer-to-peer currency will happen. I just don’t think bitcoin will be it. Many have pointed out its likely to be a footnote like Napster is to music distribution. I agree.
Excellent post. Your change in sentiment towards Bitcoin mirrors my own. <snip conspiracy theory> If you are only interested in the price then you made a good move getting out in January. Not posting then, or not proving you sold means this thread is a transparent attempt to induce further fear driven selling today. Why? Certainly not to help others 'see the light'. Actually only so you can buy in again lower. Pathetic frankly. At least Mat actually admits he is here simply to trade the price to gain wealth. |
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Guys, listen to OP, he tells the truth. Seriuosly.
Lots of bearish threads on here from throwaway accounts. Lots of conspiracy theories. I think its time for a break from btc. Let's see what a few months of good old fashioned buy and hold does. |
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Thanks for your responses. I still fear that the Japanese Bankruptcy Court can do whatever it wants to do with the 200,000 BTC it controls. In other words, they could sell them and return the proceeds to creditors or return the BTC to its creditors, pro rata. If the Court succeeded in selling the 200,000 coins, it would brutalize BTC's price. Why is this not a real possibility? I'm not trolling for cheap coins, (I'm already all in at a average cost of approx. $495! Plus, I can't control the Court's decision!) I'm just very curious about pressing BTC matters that could impact us all.
You seriously think the bankruptcy court is going to dump 200,000 coins on the open market to achieve a best sale price? Perhaps you should apply for a job at the CFTC. |
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For new big jump we need again any MtGox exchange, Artificial pump prices and after that he dies.
Without worrying, and without any accountability under the law, It is legal robbery.
The old system of work, classics
No we just need buyers to exceed sellers for a sustained period. Then the scarcity of bitcoin will do its magic, as it has before. |
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I wonder how long bitcoin is going to remain urgently 'on the verge of collapse' before you give up igorr. Probably when you have bought as many as you can afford and instead want the price to rise instead!
Just a little reminder: Igorr started this thread on February 15th. The price was $670. As of today the price is $475 and we went to $340 (which is probably not the final bottom). So he was right bitcoin was (and still is) on the verge of collapse  As long as the price remains above zero, bitcoin is on the verge of collapse - and on the verge of hitting 10,000 dollars. Watch igorr evaporate from bitcointalk once the price convincingly breaks out later this year. |
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What spurs the next run?
It is worth remembering there are only 10,000 addresses with more than 100 coins currently. There will only ever be 21,000,000 coins available and over half of those are already mined and out there. Supply will constrain significantly after 2016.
My view is that bitcoin remains an incredible technology. A supranational, global internet currency which is cryptographically secure, allowing payment to someone in outer mongolia from scotland (for example Mat) in seconds. Money in the hands of the people, money given value by the the people for the first time, not the banks or government, unprintable/ or counterfeitable, existing only in the cloud.
The internet changed everything. More and more of the world will irreversibly become connected in the coming years. An rising tide that will flow until only the very poorest are excluded.
I view smartphones as the internet 2.0. A personal handheld device, always connected, a powerful linux client, already with the capabilities of a desktop computer. There are 7 billion mobile phones on the planet, mainly dumbphones. I don't have figures for smartphones but you better believe that they will be ubiquitous where there is mains electricity in the next 5 years as device costs continue to fall. This is a silent global revolution. A groundswell of ubiquitous powerful personal computing and communication devices for the masses.
Bitcoin is simply the next logical evolution of money. Money in the cloud, secure, and most importantly accessible and spendable on your phone. It can be cheaply integrated into online services avoiding the legacy banking system entirely. And it is.
I understand you are bearish Mat. But I wonder if you mistake being whipsawed a few times by the bitcoin market price, for the astonishing upside potential that bitcoin represents. I think you are missing the big picture.
Mathematically enforced scarcity drove up the price as bitoin users rose from a handful to a few. With 50k downloads of blockchain.info from the google play store and only 10,000 users with 100 coins or more the upside should be obvious. It's a big world out there and soon large swathes of it are coming online.
Infrastructure is being built. Political and central banking opposition and dirty price interference tactics will soon start in earnest if they havent already. Barring internet shutdown or global war, or a global political consensus against bitcoin, there is only one way this project ends. Everyone on this forum knows it. The cat is out the bag. If it isn't bitcoin it will be an usurper.
What other asset would you wish to hold for the next five years?
Nice clear thinking for a change. I would digress however on the issue of Bitcoin being a currency that for the first time is being given value by the people. All forms of money that ever did exist was given it's value by the people. Problem is that not all people are equal. Whilst Bitcoin may serve to shift human consciousness a bit in terms of what money is perceived to be. Their are far too many big boys around who can take the Bitcoin market and do what they like with it. And then there is the issue of Satoshi's 1.5 MBTC. I shall not go into my theories on 'Satoshi Nakamoto' again here, but if Mr Nakamoto just happened to be a Big Boy working for 'The Man', then Bitcoin is fated to prove to be nothing other than a further evolution in the control grid and will ultimately find it's purpose in some range of nefarious deeds that have not very much to do with human liberty or freedom. I am bearish on Bitcoin because it has been going down overall and will continue to do so. With that said, I shall never short Bitcoin again as I have discovered that engaging in this activity opens a whole psychological can of worms that I am not good at dealing with. By the same token, I shall never use leverage in Bitcoin ever again. The next time I shall buy Bitcoins is when we are back down at the lower range of the trendline. Next stop mid $200 range. Even if I fuck up doing this and the market goes much further down than I anticipated, at least I 'own' physical Bitcoins and I have the option of holding out indefinitely until I can get my money back. Up until now, providing BTC has been bought at lower reaches of trading range, the opportunities have always arisen for the Bitcoin buyer to break even or profit. With leverage, long or short, the same thing can't be said. I think i first heard about bitcoin in 2011. It was the concentration of coins in a handful of hands that made me dismiss it as a fad/scam. When it crashed to 2 dollars I read about it again and my original dismissal was confirmed. Oops It is naive to expect currency / wealth to not be held in a pareto distribution. Ultimately all market actors should be interested in the price eventually rising, even if they induce volatility to increase market share along the way. What worries me slightly is the central banks using fiat to buy up bitcoins and use destructive trading patterns on the exchanges to crash the price and threaten adoption. I guess this is something bitcoin will have to endure and given its trading history that may not even be a problem as long as the stair step rises continue as the user count climbs. Even if the nakamoto coins were revealed to be US gov, then I wouldn't have a problem with that. The rules that govern coin creation would still apply. |
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I wonder how long bitcoin is going to remain urgently 'on the verge of collapse' before you give up igorr. Probably when you have bought as many as you can afford and instead want the price to rise instead!
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$487 and going down... What breakout?
At least it shrugged off the China news without much damage. $340 to $540 is a really excellent recovery. But for now, it seems that the mood has been dampened by the news about Mt Gox liquidation. You could go through Bitcoins price history, dig out news events to explain every single spike and dip that ever did occur, and write a book on the history of Bitcoin..... ......only problem with that would be the book being a pile of misguided shite. " $400 to $710 really is an excellent recovery. But for now, it seems the mood has been dampened by the news about [Insert News event here]." The old conundrum of what moves the market price. |
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What spurs the next run?
It is worth remembering there are only 10,000 addresses with more than 100 coins currently. There will only ever be 21,000,000 coins available and over half of those are already mined and out there. Supply will constrain significantly after 2016.
My view is that bitcoin remains an incredible technology. A supranational, global internet currency which is cryptographically secure, allowing payment to someone in outer mongolia from scotland (for example Mat) in seconds. Money in the hands of the people, money given value by the the people for the first time, not the banks or government, unprintable/ or counterfeitable, existing only in the cloud.
The internet changed everything. More and more of the world will irreversibly become connected in the coming years. An rising tide that will flow until only the very poorest are excluded.
I view smartphones as the internet 2.0. A personal handheld device, always connected, a powerful linux client, already with the capabilities of a desktop computer. There are 7 billion mobile phones on the planet, mainly dumbphones. I don't have figures for smartphones but you better believe that they will be ubiquitous where there is mains electricity in the next 5 years as device costs continue to fall. This is a silent global revolution. A groundswell of ubiquitous powerful personal computing and communication devices for the masses.
Bitcoin is simply the next logical evolution of money. Money in the cloud, secure, and most importantly accessible and spendable on your phone. It can be cheaply integrated into online services avoiding the legacy banking system entirely. And it is.
I understand you are bearish Mat. But I wonder if you mistake being whipsawed a few times by the bitcoin market price, for the astonishing upside potential that bitcoin represents. I think you are missing the big picture.
Mathematically enforced scarcity drove up the price as bitoin users rose from a handful to a few. With 50k downloads of blockchain.info from the google play store and only 10,000 users with 100 coins or more the upside should be obvious. It's a big world out there and soon large swathes of it are coming online.
Infrastructure is being built. Political and central banking opposition and dirty price interference tactics will soon start in earnest if they havent already. Barring internet shutdown or global war, or a global political consensus against bitcoin, there is only one way this project ends. Everyone on this forum knows it. The cat is out the bag. If it isn't bitcoin it will be an usurper.
What other asset would you wish to hold for the next five years?
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Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.
People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.
The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.
None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact. Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.
Good hunting.
+1 Well said bitrider. Well said. Last time I remember this much euphoria around here, it was early March and Bitcoin was hitting $710. I am a fucking shite trader although having said that, over all I have still made money but I admit most money I made was in the later part of bull run. A market phase that any fkn halfwit can trade and win. Since Bitcoin has went into reversal, despite pretty accurately forecasting general trends, my absolutely shite trading skills has seen profits minimised with lots of stupid losses in between, and then this monumental loss today has certainly put me into net loss territory for the Jan 2014 - April 2014 period. I broke the adage I keep trying to imbue into myself but never seem to be able to stick to. NEVER TAKE A TRADE IN THE MIDDLE OF NO-MANS LAND! Right now, we are not in no-mans land. We are right on the verge of the long term downtrend with buying power surely exhausted (real Bitstamp USD buying power, not the fake Chinese volume that drove this price surge). A better medium term shorting opportunity as selling Bitcoin at $500 will not present itself in Bitcoin for some time, but I aint touching it. I have come to realise that as well as I can forecast general trends in Bitcoin from my armchair, there is something in my psychological make up that makes me a very poor trader. Even If I took the trade and won, I would end up with 25% of the profits on offer and then would be encouraged to make lots of other shitty little capital draining trades on the back of it. Too many times recently I am holding back when I should be going ahead with a trade, regretting it, and then diving in when I should really be sitting back. Indeed, the fact that my nerve broke right at $512 which is where I covered my shorts at is a sure sign for me that this was the top. Anyhow, enjoy your brief moment in the sun you couple of fucking bampots. I will be back to taunt y'all when Bitcoin is in $200 range. If Bitcoin doesn't get here, then this will be the first time ever that I have been wrong with a downside target. Always a first time for everything though, eh? Leverage always gets you in the end. As someone iirc who has owned and traded pm's previously I would have thought you would have learned that lesson Mat. Shorting a market like bitcoin which has experienced exponential price increases and incredible volatility is insane, especially as a market outsider. It will be interesting to see where things are in six months. Perhaps you will be right and bitcoin will be bouncing along in the 200 dollar range, I am more hopeful we will get another bubble into the 3-10,000 range in the next 24 months. What presumably attracted you to bitcoin, the idea, the protocol etc still holds true. In spite of your poor trading decisions isn't it worth leaving some skin in the game? |
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You have gone awfully quiet igorr. Are we still urgently on the verge of collapse?
yes of course, This is only a temporary growth, and after we will have a fall $200 or more, and now is perfect shorting position.  View Screen CaptureHope you didn't short igorr.. |
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You have gone awfully quiet igorr. Are we still urgently on the verge of collapse?
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Only if you know the future, which you don't. These threads have only one purpose - attempting to manipulate others to sell so that you can buy in lower.
Good luck catching the bottom!
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There's no new capital entering the market. Without China, who will sustain the healthy $400+ prices? Onshore deposits will be frozen after April 14, and most exchanges will have significant problems in the future to deal with oversea deposits. The solution of OKCoin with recharge coupons won't work in the long-term, and I expect PBOC to ban China exchanges one day. Also, I definitely think most traders are going to withdraw their RMB before the deadline, just to see how the market reacts. As Bobby Lee said, "After the April 15 deadline, most investors will re-evaluate Bitcoin".
That being said, we've reached a $350 low, we've all scooped the cheap coins. Who's going to invest at $400+?
Also, you have to consider the amount of BTC being dumped by miners everyday.
E.g. Overstock is dumping $1M USD worth of BTC/day. KNC miners are dumping $500K USD worth of BTC/day.
There's only one direction in this market. We're going south.
BTW, only 12 waking hours left in China. It's nearly monday up there
Sounds like you have already sold your 'scooped coins'. Am I right? |
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This user is currently ignored.
Bliss. |
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Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.
Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity. Don't assume he's intentionally spreading FUD. He might actually believe that nonsense he was spewing. I imagine most people hold a speculative asset that has consistently risen over the medium term because they expect it to rise over the long term. We could all be wrong and it may fall to zero. That's called risk. Next silly question. |
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