Why so high is because a miner in hand is worth a lot more than something on a slow boat from China. Also a private transaction sold to someone in the EU then you also avoid VAT by declaring it as a used computer.
Good point. On the other hand, I paid ZERO (0) customs & VAT via USPS for my BFL 60 shipped from the US to EU. It depends on the company.
I know genesis block blah blah blah. Have you seen BTC prices? Currently $204 at MtGox. You will get your 30 BTC back in 60 days.
No you won't! Read that again:
NO YOU WON'T GET BACK YOUR 30 BTC IN 60 DAYS!!! That's because 0.5
BTC per day is valid ONLY for up until the next difficulty change (which will drop you down to 0.25
BTC or worse). Wait for it in less than a week. This is NOT an estimation via genesisblock (which btw I find pretty accurate and rather optimistic). This is via my own personal measurements judging from MY OWN miner's revenue.
At that point if a BTC is worth $400 then you got yourself a nice ROI. All about risk versus potential reward.
As I wrote above you will need MUCH MORE than 60 days to get your BTC back. Plus the miner should be online all this time. Plus power outage etc. Why don't you buy those 30BTC right away with fiat money (or if you have them just keep them) and sell them double price when and IF the price rockets high...
The one thing genesis block can't predict and no one can is where BTC price will be in 60 days. You can only speculate.
Exactly... You can only speculate (but you can also make a rather good estimation).
Just my 2 Shatoshis (and sorry for bombing the thread - but I had to make those things clear for all those dreamers out there)