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You posted a load of bollocks on here yesterday, too.
Nothing goes straight up. Look at the chart going back further than December 2013 to get an idea why bitcoin aficionado's hope for further returns in the future.
Scarcity coupled with adoption means unless bitcoin fails its price will rise, and likely rise significantly.
Everyone on here knows bitcoin is a high risk investment. Those of us who hold btc as part of a portfolio do so expecting returns over years rather than hours or days.
You have sold. Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.
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Lots of posts from fonzie on this thread. Why does he always say 'This user is currently ignored.' ?  |
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You will see the end of this bear market by these following indicators.
1) The price will go lower then most expected
2) The price will remain low longer then most expected
3) The loudest and the most enthusiastic bulls will start to blame bitcoin and everyone involved for the situation and then write dramatic final speeches of them leaving.
If you will get tired of seeing indicator 3, then it's time to buy, not before.
#3 spotted in the wild! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=554625.0;topicseenbtw why don't you expect a fast rebound? - if I observe this place properly all guys are playing "who gets the most bitcoins" - and they are wondering where the bottom is - probably not for selling at the bottom.... The market needs some rest to build momentum, and all of this isn't an act to drive the price down to buy back cheaper. This act is about dumping coins and creating illusions to keep the buy support up. There are plenty of experienced investors who want out with certainty and they are just spreading out their sales to get better profits. These are mostly the investors that came in during the last November rally. They have no emotional attachment to bitcoin, that would make them stay. They are just doing what their schools taught them, to cut their losses in the best way possible, and to move forward with other investments. The loss of the markets in China and loss of the public trust isn't nothing to them. To them, bitcoin failed in the attempt to pass the threshold from illegal to legal finance. When these guys will finish dumping, then the price will be low, but it will be stable. Lots of newbie accounts sounding very knowledgeable always come into existence during price weakness, then disappear. |
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Right boys I have just bought more bitcoin. Expect the price to plunge. |
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'Sentiment incredibly bearish'? Come on... Sentiment is bearish, and this is normal in a bear market.
It's more bearish than I previously thought, so it seems that this bear market is going to resemble more 2011 than 2013.
But my EW count says that the market is still far from the very bottom. If 400$ will break during the next days and
there will be a rebound from that local bottom, only after that will the 'incredibly bearish' sentiment kick in.
Quoting from Wikipedia: Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.
I agree with this. The error the OP is making is that he's using sentiment in a quantitative manner. However, the market is a fractal. To end a bear market, we need to see sentiment comensurately negative relative to the optimism seen near the highs. If you recall how insane this bubble/mania got, then you'll realize it's going to take one hell of a rout to properly retrace Sentiment can be scraped from public sites and fashioned into an index which provides useful predictive information. Though in this case I haven't. Fractals, elliot wave theory, mmm, you both drive a ferrari I suppose  |
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Leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure the price will drop to 2xx range?
Ultimately it is not in major market participants interest to let it drop that low for a sustained period of time. Who wants to own a larger percentage of something and kill it in the process?
Have you noticed the way that the lows are being continually pushed down on very little volume? Think back to early March when the $400 low hit. Think of all the back slapping and euphoria, that the bottom was in and 10K Bitcoins were just around the corner, only for one month later to be back below where most 'bottom fishers' would have gotten in on the MtGox crash, with Bitcoin looking weak as ever. This is a real kicking. Bitcoin is getting badly hurt and the punishment has barely begun. Thus, if +/- $20 around $400 doesn't hold as a bottom, then $200 range is next logical conclusion with $266 (April 2013) being the last significant pivotal price. Look along the Bitcoin chart and see how Bitcoin never fails to play around these pivotal price points. When one fails, or is taken out, then it is on to the next. I expect a rally at around $400, but I expect it to peter out very quickly as sentiment is just too bearish and so many speculators who thought they were getting a cracking deal are either underwater by now or have just had all the joy sucked out them. So, leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure that sentiment is strong enough for $400 to prove itself the ultimate bottom? (even though that is only $50 away and we are hardly in the midst of a bout of panic selling right here). I am not sure about the price, you are . Your arguments are based on technical analysis, fine. If we breach support therefore we drop much lower. Maybe. You are right a beautiful high volume reversal would be most welcome, but I am a buyer here. I will continue to buy in enlarging tranches the lower we go. As I said before this is a punt for me which could easily return several hundred % over a couple of years. It forms a small part of my portfolio, but owning high double digits today stings  |
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Sat in the airport watching this unfold. Where do the newbie trolls always appear when the price is falling ha. |
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Just sold everything, thanks!
Haha! |
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I reckon we'll stop at 362, which will happen sometime this week!
I don't. I think we will visit the $200 range for sure, although perhaps not before another counter-trend rally or two. Having said that, I never expected Bitcoin to nose dive as quickly as it has done.....perhaps I believed all the Bitcoin Nutters when they insisted that China was already priced in and was bracing myself for a slow grinding long winded bear market. Things are looking really bad at the moment. Just broken through that $466 high volume low, on next to bugger all volume! Will be interesting to see if $400 can hold if/when a proper level of selling pressure kicks in. Leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure the price will drop to 2xx range? Ultimately it is not in major market participants interest to let it drop that low for a sustained period of time. Who wants to own a larger percentage of something and kill it in the process? |
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We've never been here before. igorr and matthecat are right. This is the end...cuz we've never been here before.
Is that confirmed? |
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So having a look through the fora here and on reddit it seems the bears and trolls are out in force uncontested. Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative. Apparently bitcoin is crashing, it has no value and could go to zero! Matthecat and igorr told us so! Perhaps it could. But sellers who purely bought to trade or profit will soon be exhausted and the price will inevitably bottom. The shorter time frame charts look ugly . But pulling out to the 3 day as we see a healthy pullback after an ATH with a potential triple bottom around the 400 area. This represents a good buying area and anything below this is an absurdly good entry for new market participants. We all know that bitcoin is a nascent currency but as infrastructure continues to grow and user adoption rises those predicting sustained prices below 100 dollars make me chuckle. The problem with timing a bottom, is that like a top, they seldom become obvious until the future is known. For every seller there is a buyer. The prospect of buying bitcoins in the 3xx and 4xx range two months ago would have people salivating on here. Instead the doomers are screaming sell sell sell and buyers are timid. For every weak hand who sells out now (probably at a loss), there is a more experienced player stepping over the blood in the streets and buying in silently. This is classic markets in action, whales buying low from the sheep selling low Think critically and without emotion and decide whether the rather shrill calls that bitcoin is dead (again) represent a selling or buying opportunity. Happy hunting! |
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This was posted on Pastebin today!! I saw this in most recent ''public'' pastebins: Dear mister Lee,
I thank you for your decision on behalf of the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China.
We are confident that the results of our research reflect the reality and represent how the bitcoin exchanges operate.
Our board concluded that these exchanges will form a greater threat to the People's Republic of China and its citizens if they continue their current path. We have reason to believe that the operators of these exchanges are conducting criminal activities. We will hand over our reports to the designated authorities once we have received your approval.
Thank you for your time.
Best regards,
Xiao Zhčng http://pastebin.com/MwpZL8WuPathetic attempt at FUD. |
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So I'm the worst because I put forth rational arguments? That makes sense.
People like Matthecat don't understand that the majority of silent holders of bitcoin are speculating on future price rises over a period of years and not days. Trading is different from speculation. I don't have to trade bitcoin because for me it is a long term punt in a much larger portfolio. And I will continue to add to it at these prices until I am comfortable with my allocation. The sky is falling and bears are screaming sell (and they are so emotive). But despite your 'crypto currency fatigue' Mat, the underlying idea of what bitcoin represents as a technology remains sound. Adoption is widening, transactions are rising. We can tell it is slowly entering the public imagination because the central banks around the world are beginning to murmur and resist. When the market turns every bear on this forum will belatedly help to propel the price to new highs. If you didn't believe in the idea then one has to ask why you continue to post here. |
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Justify yourselves. I'm tired of hearing this. What makes you keep saying that the China situation is FUD?
As far as I'm aware, it is a FACT that the PBOC issued statements in DECEMBER that third party payment processors and banks should not transact with bitcoin exchanges or in bitcoin. Since then, Chinese exchanges have ignored the guidance and continued to use bank accounts, and attempted other manipulations and tricks in defiance of their government. Bulls have been attempting to use sheer hope and willpower to turn this temporary situation into a permanent one and pretend that nothing ever happened in China and that everything is ok. They are deluded! To think that the Chinese government was not going to enforce PBOC rulings or for the bulls to think that they could go in and change the fabric of the universe to reverse things with their sheer bullishness, enthusiasm, and willpower. Moooooo! No! It was bound to fail eventually. Now the inevitable enforcement action rolls around. Even if the current news is fake (which I'm hearing it probably isn't), enforcement action could STILL be right around the corner, and I've been warning about this months, and how I never really liked this 'recovery' because it was always led by or supported by China which was doomed to fail eventually.
One more thing: Someone argued with me that cash vouchers were the reason everything was ok. You know well as I that it is not cash vouchers but bank transfers that have been moving the real money, cash vouchers are just another trick to defy the government which will probably also be banned, and that cash vouchers are not even on Huobi - the highest volume exchange, so they are practically irrelevant.
So anyway, anyone who still subscribes to the "China FUD" theory, explain yourselves?
1) Why do you think the rulings in December were fake, or did not really imply that bank accounts should not transact with Bitcoin exchanges? Provide proof. If there is a mistranslation, please provide the appropriate translation, and proof of how it is a valid translation.
2) Why do you think the current news is fake? Again, provide proof.
So you sold your coins?  |
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Hi,
I have an idea for a bitcoin startup. I am looking for a programmer to discuss the project further with a view to taking on a partner in the prospective company. Prior bitcoin experience ideal.
PM me for details if interested.
Inca
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to me, only question of time when 530 $ is breach.
then it will be panic time.
2000 coins on bitstamp before that. Single small buy and we shoot back up into the 580's and beyond. But yeah the chart looks bearish. Any sign of a turn and ill buy my next twenty coins. in a bear market? good luck! just place your bids low enough. dont fall in bull traps. Bottom picking is a dirty business as they say. But look at the overall trend from ATH, a steady decline. All it takes is a push above trendline into the low 6xx's and we are technically off to the races. Also we have a series of higher lows, the most recent of which is 400. So if we bounce as I expect we will and trend higher even slightly then suddenly the setup is rather bullish and this price looks like an excellent entry. If we bounce |
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to me, only question of time when 530 $ is breach.
then it will be panic time.
2000 coins on bitstamp before that. Single small buy and we shoot back up into the 580's and beyond. But yeah the chart looks bearish. Any sign of a turn and ill buy my next twenty coins. |
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Only around 800 coins to buy up the entire order book on bitstamp..
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Well someone is buying high and selling low.
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the night is young. anything could happen, but I think being at lows, we are not near the lows.
.......and there has been little volume yet. this is just petty bidding.
I admire your optimism I doubt we will break 530$, lots of money in back, just waiting for cheap coins... one big order can fu*k up your position. When the tide turns there is going to be some moaning from the usual lot. |
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