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3721  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: April 29, 2021, 10:23:11 AM
I honestly don't understand why people valuate Tesla at such high levels.

It virtually makes no sense. People are essentially pricing in decades worth of earnings growth into an unprofitable company. Automakers that have been making profits for decades, like BMW and Mercedes, are somehow outpriced in terms of market cap.

A 50 P/E ratio is considered to be bubble territory. Tesla currently has a four digit P/E of 1,100. Think about that.
Well, my guy the reason that make a big deal out of them is because they have a relatable CEO and they are almost the talk of a lot of forums and message boards. Not to mention that they are innovative in terms of automobile, the reason I believe that they are unprofitable is because electric cars in general are still expensive compared to gas powered guzzlers.

Tesla, big as it has become, is essentially still a start-up that is burning through more cash that it can sustainability generate, even if they have decided to declare profits. You are using the wrong metrics to evaluate Tesla, e.g. if you wanted to value Amazon on a P/E ratio a few years ago it would have been infinite because they were not making profit.

For companies such as Tesla is all about optionality and growth, you can´t just throw a P/E to it.
3722  Economy / Economics / Re: World risk - global on: April 29, 2021, 10:20:19 AM

The COVID current situation in India shows that the risk of diseases and biological risks are by no means underestimated. Perhaps the risk should be considered on a country by country basis, but insofar as the number of people affected, we cannot deny that an uncontrolled disease with no cure and quick to expand and with potential to infect pretty much anyone has been proven to cause not only a substantial number of deaths in poor countries, but also a deterioration of the economy that will also kill people due to lack of attention, food, living conditions...

Covid-19 information in India is very popular in all countries, seeing the people there experiencing very bad things, but I saw that the country had not previously paid much attention to Covid-19. I got the information that people in India didn't really care about the virus a few months ago. But bad things are happening now and can't be avoided. That's right, that the economy is very supportive of the virus that is happening at this time. disease will continue to grow if you are unable to eat.

TBH it is one of the few countries in which I have heard that you could get tested, have a positive and have the lab itself offering you to certify a negative for the equivalent to 10 USD extra. This type of mentality is going not only to bring a disaster for the country, but also generate new variants that may have a strong influence in world economy. India may be at risk of having any foreign travel banned if they continue to act as the "petri dish" for disease spread of the world.
3723  Economy / Economics / Re: Bangladesh Bank will not leave any digital currency in the market on: April 29, 2021, 10:17:29 AM
As usual, the weaker and economy and a political systems, the more keen are they in banning anything that allows freedom and free flow of capital for their citizens. It should be considered an indication of democracy and economic freedom to allow citizens to own and trade any asset - other than drugs and the like - just as freely as cows or chickens. Obviously, when you run a shitty politic and financial system, you just have to kill any competing system such as crypto.
3724  Economy / Economics / Re: How do you define rich? on: April 29, 2021, 10:14:10 AM
I agree with the opinion of a figure named Meta Lakshmi, that a rich person is a person who has good and correct financial planning, ".

So,  how much the person's income if  not balanced with correct management, he will be poor because we cannot manage the money properly.
 Having a lot of money is rich, that's just the general opinion of people.

You can a great financial planning and still not being rich. I am more on the idea of equating richness with time and expectations. If you expect to stop working for money when you are 30 and then travel the world and buying all short of expensive things, not all planning in the world is going to help you. You would basically need to go to very risky experiments and bets and probably loose the little you got along the way.
3725  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: taking profit can be hard sometimes. on: April 29, 2021, 10:11:43 AM
It is said that it is hard to part with winners. Many people re-balance their portfolio from time to time and that usually means that you would need to sell those assets that have made you good profit versus those that have not. Is like weeding out the loosers as opposed to weeding out the loosers.

Anyway, the best way is to set a target price o several targets to reduce your position automatically or else you will always face hard decissions.
3726  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Be a Responsible Gambler on: April 29, 2021, 10:00:35 AM
I suppose you mean poker tournaments with $10,000 buy-in and higher. There was even a tournament, Big One for One Drop with $1,000,000 buy-in. That's crazy, right?

A good poker player will never spend more than 1% of their poker bankroll on a tournament entry, so, obviously, most of the time they do need investors. But, it's important to understand that poker pros don't borrow money to buy a ticket. They attract investors who give them the money in exchange for a cut of the possible winnings. If the game is lost, a poker player doesn't owe a cent to anyone.

There's literally no exception to the rule that borrowing money for gambling  is wrong.
Yep, and I know. It's like sports or eSports teams, they have a group of people backing them that has investors and is connected to multiple industries. It'd be rather rare for a sole individual to actually enter poker tournaments with just him since there's a huge amount of document processing and whatnot I assume, just like how it is with some regulated pro tournaments.

Document processing isn't a problem, you can know nothing about it and still enter a tournament with professionals doing all the job regarding documentation. Sole individuals do enter poker tournaments with huge buy-ins, but those individuals are billionaires or millionaires, at least. For example, below is the info about the Big One for One Drop event in 2012:

Starting at 4:11 p.m. ET Sunday, 48 players (29 of them professionals, 19 of them big-time businessmen) will receive a stack of 3 million in chips for the $1 million they've each put up.

Surely those businessmen could afford losing $1 million, and that's why they entered.

Seeing how much some high rollers win sometimes, people are saying "You can't win big without taking big risks", but they are missing one important point: in the vast majority of cases the highrollers are putting at risk huge amounts for us, regular folks, but not that huge for them, compared to what they have in total.

That is totally right, it is said that you should not invest or bet what you can´t afford to loose. In my case that is in the range of 10 to 20 USD a year Wink but there are many people out there that really, believe or nbot, do not even know what to do with their dough. I am talking about guys that have enough wealth for 5 generations and don´t care for any bet lower than a million. BTW, it is good learning to loose a large sum... it makes you appreciate the value of money.
3727  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2020/21 on: April 29, 2021, 09:57:41 AM
Today Barcelona can top but all the nominations you see are the closest to the coronation in the end, in the strongest comeback in the League if it ends with winning the title.
Grenada will be desperate to return to away victories after they lost 7 out of their 8 away games, but they will have their against Barcelona
...

yeah, Granada is no match, so this game is just another easy pie for Barca. The thing is that you never know with football, Granada is quite desperate and that sometimes counts for something, so if I had to give a spread on this one, I think that 1/10 for a Granada win, 1/12 for a win by more than 1 goal, 1 in 10 for a tie and 8 in 10 for a Bacelona win.

I would not bet unless offered a 15 to 1 for a Granada win though.
3728  Local / Español (Spanish) / El EURO digital - q cabe esperar on: April 29, 2021, 09:47:27 AM
Voy a poner aqui una traduccion (aproximada) de mi post en la sección de Economia pq creo q es interesante para la sección hispana:

He leído sobre las conversaciones en relacion con el Euro digital aquí  y lo q piensan las instituciones europeas por ahora.

La consulta ciudadana manifiesta que a los ciudadanos les preocupa:
- La privacidad -  el 43% de la gente esta preocupada por esto!
- La utilidad y seguridad de uso.
- La integracion en los sistemas existentes.
- La efficiencia económica y gratiudad de uso.

Aunque el BCE reconoce la necesidad de privacidad también dicen que:
Quote
Los pagos con el euro digital podrían implementar distintos grados de privacidad, involucrando distintos equilibrios con otros objetivos politicos y regulatorios tales como combatir las actividades ilícitas
<...>
En teoría, los pagos con euros digitales podrían ser anónimos si la identidad de los usuarios no se verifica cuando accedan a los servicios del euro digital. Pero este anonimato proveería de un "suelo fértil" a las actividades ilegales y podría impedir el cumplimiento de regulaciones relativas a blanqueo de capitales y la lucha contra la financiación del terrorismo.

Asique, si, el BCE reconoce que la privacidad es una preocupación y si, las instituciones no harán el euro digital de por si por lo cual cabe esperar q no va a parecerse al dinero en efectivo y que la puerta a una vigilancia intrusiva de las transacciones particulares está completamente abierta.

Una pregunta q también me planteo es como puede afectar la implementación del euro digital frenta a la posible del dolar digital o el yuan digital a los tipos de cambio de las divisas, esto es, si va a ser un factor adicional de apetencia por cierta divisa unido a los tradicionales de tipos de interés, inflación,  etc..
3729  Economy / Economics / How a digital EURO may look like on: April 29, 2021, 09:34:33 AM
I have read about the digital euro talks here and I think it is worth sharing with the forum what is the current thinking or the European Institutions:

Citizen´s consultation yield concerns about:

- Privacy - 43% of people are worried about this!!
- Usefulness and safety
- Integration in the current systems
- Efficient and cost-less

While the ECB acknowledges the need for privacy, they also say:

Quote
Digital euro payments could guarantee different degrees of privacy[7], involving different trade-offs with other policy and regulatory objectives such as the need to combat illicit activities
<...>

In theory, digital euro payments could be anonymous if users’ identities were not verified when they access digital euro services. But this anonymity would provide fertile ground for unlawful activities and could prevent compliance with regulations on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism.


So, yes, privacy is going to be a concern, yes the institutions will not make digital euro anonymous per-se so I my view we should expect it to be very unlike cash and yes it does open the door to making cash restricted for very small payments and thus having a massive control over people.

My self-question is, up to what point a successful launch of a digital Euro, versus a Digital Yuan and a Digital USD may increase the attractive of these currencies and thus could impact the exchange rate beyond the usual interest rates / inflation / import-export components of the demand for currencies.
3730  Economy / Economics / Re: Biden's IRS Plans Could Boost Crypto Adoption on: April 29, 2021, 09:23:53 AM
...
Now, if you're a lowlife individual or business who is currently illegally underreporting your tax obligation, the new proposed bank reporting requirement is a threat to your illegal lifestyle.  Sure seems like an incentive to start transacting in crypto, doesn't it?

I am not sure of the veracity of the information, even with a decent source, but anyway, I am just an average guy living in a western country. My earnings, bank movements, taxes and any economic activity that I dare to undertake is certainly registered, watched and taxed. Thus, I absolutely welcome any initiative that is going to apply the same rules to everyone and everything.

Crypto is not there to help with illegal transactions - even if there was some related adoption at first - the big bags are now wall street funds and large companies that usually have better means to avoid taxes. Thus my take is that crypto adoption will not be significantly changed by these measures.
3731  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin wasn’t created to make you rich. It was created to Enslave U & Track U on: April 28, 2021, 11:33:34 AM
You can argue that electronic money in general can be used to track the spend of the users and I would agree with you. Just think of initiative such as the digital euro and the digital dollar that could potentially be only held on named accounts and all movements registered.
However it is very clear that bitcoin is not the right tool for that purpose and that someone with the intention to track would have made a completely different chain or technology. Bitcoin is not anonymous and has never made the claim of being so, but that is a different thing. You can always use privacy coins if that is what you are intending to say.
3732  Economy / Economics / Re: Coin exchange markets create the coin "out of thin air " on: April 28, 2021, 11:29:51 AM
Coin exchange markets create the coin "out of thin air "

You first buy the 0.0001 BTC from Binance or any local coin exchange markets.
You give 3.5 dolar to Binance and Binance add 0.0001 btc to your account.
In this transaction, really, Binance gives you BTC ?
 Huh Huh

Firstly, not your keys not your bitcoin. Having said that, no coin is not created out of thin air, they do need to have enough bitcoin in reserve to cover all the positions of their clients or else they would risk going bankrupt in the even of having a significant amount of withdrawals at the same time and that is something that may happen. I guess they could opt for taking some risk, just like real banks do, a create some bitcoin without having reserves, but I think that is a very risky move and that it could potentially be detected which would carry a loss of confidence and massive withdrawals at the worst possible moment.
3733  Economy / Economics / Re: Charlie Munger: "Bitcoin is an artificial substitute for Gold" on: April 28, 2021, 11:25:44 AM
I think Digital Gold best describes btc more than an artificial substitute, btc is not artificial because it has a total different features and functions from gold, there is no point comparing btc and gold in the first place because they are different, this is his opinion anyways, nobody really cares.

Btc is Gold in what sense exactly? Gold is neither as volatile as btc and nor its going up constantly. Gold is being traded at its 2013 price while btc is at its ATH and getting new ATH's. I see no similarities between gold and bitcoin tbh. Gold has nearly unlimited supply too. Asteroids, the earth core, sea water all filled with gold.

gold in the sense of a reserve of value that has a daily trading volume that is pretty much irrelevant to the total volume of gold in existance, that is kept as a sign of strength, widely accepted for payments (not exactly, but anyway widely accepted a valuable), limited in supply (in fact bitcoin is more limited than gold), kept mostly by strong hands that are not selling at penies on dollar ever.

I think the comparison is quite clear and that bitcoin is establishing itself as an alternative asset that behaves like precious metals... perhaps you could argue that as a "rare mineral" due to voltility.
3734  Economy / Economics / Re: Are some too blind to see? on: April 28, 2021, 11:22:26 AM

Whatever if it's Tesla or Microstrategy, do you really believe them when they brag on Twitter saying "we're here for a long time! HODL!"?
Nope, they're here to make profits, not for charity. They will take any opportunity to make money, no matter how the market is going. They will keep buying and selling later.
(I read that the Tesla company sold 10% of its bitcoin portfolio)

...

I think they are taking a quite naïve approach to bitcoin and crypto. We all know that it is not too difficult to speculate with bitcoin and that you can potentially play the pump and dump, however that approach is far from being the best in bitcoin history. Those who hodl have had a bumpy ride, yet they have profited greatly basically doing nothing except waiting.

I think that contrary to all intuition, the right way of doing things in bitcoin is to expect to profit without doing anything. Just buy some, live your life as usual and that is pretty much it.
3735  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla still an unprofitable automaker on: April 28, 2021, 11:18:07 AM
The race here is Tesla against the traditional auto industry. It is clear that the tradicional makers are now swapping quickly to the EV, however they have the burden of their old assets and production means along with the intelectual property that was serving as a moat for them an is no longer useful for electric cars. This is all about how Tesla manages to use it advantages including exclusive dedication to EV, intelectual property and patents, etc... versus how fast are the traditional in switching , and how efficient at creating new defensive moats in the industry.
3736  Economy / Economics / Re: World risk - global on: April 28, 2021, 11:15:06 AM

--snip-- Regarding diseases, I am sure that we will be able to to address it if we continue to improve in terms of medicine.
Over the last century, we have been able to control diseases a lot. Average life expectancy went up due to antibiotics and other medical advances. Yet, it seems like nature is in an arms race with human race. We are running out of new antibiotics as microbes are developing resistances. Nothing needs to be said about the SARS-CoV2. The efficacy with which it is killing off some of the victims has left medical experts bewildered. Now, it seems like it is mutating.

Getting rid of diseases and disability would be such a boon for human existence. It'd be literally heaven on earth if somehow every human was assured of a disease-free existence. It'd probably be too costly for everyone to afford but if such technology could ever exist (The kind they featured in the movie Elysium), it'll be a time of celebration. I doubt we are anywhere near that or can even ever reach there. For every answer that delving into the micro-world provides, it throws up another question.
Diseases and natural disasters are indirectly a result of man made actions. Overpopulation, food shortages that lead to eating animals or insects we shouldn't (see bats, rats, cats and many more), terrible living conditions in many areas, which is unacceptable in the age we live in, (Such as the poorest parts of India, Thailand, Asia and Africa in general). All these circumstances create an ideal environment for infectious diseases to be developed.

Moreover, most natural disasters, such as floods or wildfires, are purely result of our own actions.

The COVID current situation in India shows that the risk of diseases and biological risks are by no means underestimated. Perhaps the risk should be considered on a country by country basis, but insofar as the number of people affected, we cannot deny that an uncontrolled disease with no cure and quick to expand and with potential to infect pretty much anyone has been proven to cause not only a substantial number of deaths in poor countries, but also a deterioration of the economy that will also kill people due to lack of attention, food, living conditions...
3737  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you limit your gambling time? on: April 26, 2021, 10:42:47 PM

- Have a weekly budget to play and do not ever go over it?
- Not ever get in debt for gambling?
- Have an allocated time for gambling and never exceed it?
- Gamble only socially with friends of relatives?
- Have someone helping you control your gambling?
1) Yes ofc, I never deposit the amount that can't afford to bust on gambling platforms.
2) Only happened once and I paid it back.
3) About 4 hours in a day, max was 48 hours when I was chasing live game bonus.
4) I prefer to gamble alone, society can affect my decisions.
5) No one, since I mastered controlling my emotions.

4 hours a day seems like quite a long time. Are you sure you are in control all four hours? I mean, I am sure there is people who can do it, but I personally would be keen on restricting my playing to one hour a day. I take it that it also depends on the game, since poker can be more active and you can keep playing longer with small bets, but betting on casinos and the like... 4 hours may be a small fortune I would say.

Good to know that you have mastered you emotions. I have not... yet... perhaps I will try 20 or 30 more years. Grin
3738  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Dubai's Government and Gambling on: April 26, 2021, 10:37:00 PM
Sometimes I feel like the debate on many Arab or Muslim countries is the same debate that many wester nations had... 100 years ago. All that mixing of politics with morality and what is allowed and not is just making the middle east one of the most boring regions on Earth. I think that people would be less interested in waging war or confronting others if they had something else to do - e.g. legal casino betting - apart from working, praying and having delicious mint tea.

Even if Dubai does not legalize gambling, gambling will be there like alcohol was served in speakeasys in the USA during the dry law period. BTW, I seem to recall that there were bets on camel racing anyway??
3739  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are females welcomed in gambling thread? on: April 26, 2021, 10:32:11 PM
Oh, again, nobody is going to ask you about your gender. Here you are just a user and gender becomes a thing only if you want to make a thing of it. I am not sure why are you posing this question, but anyway, ladies are welcome like anywhere else of course.

There is something to be said about the femenine angle in sports, business and other areas - most times females can see different things in the picture. In investing, it has been proven that companies that appeal to women are detected as winners earlier by female fund managers. I guess you could also detect and make better bets on sports that are more liked by ladies.
3740  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What age bracket is perfect for gambling on: April 26, 2021, 10:29:39 PM
..

If one was to advice a child who wishes to gamble, what would be the criteria to permit the child to engage in gambling considering the risk involved and how matured the child might be. Would it be based on the emotional state of the child or would age play a determining factor. Considering that different continent would address this matter differently. If we want to give a general approach in tackling a case as this what would be the criteria or the bases for allowing a child gamble...


You just made me remember how I did actually bet when I was a  child. It was with collectible cards of La Liga, we put these on a stack, and the ones that went there were negotiated carefully by us, absolute experts of 9 year of age at most. The game was very simple, you stacked the cards and you had to hit the stack with your hand and try to make the cards turn upside down. You got those cards that you managed to turn.

I guess there is not such a thing as an age bracket after all.
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