I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.
In your defence we do have a descending wedge reversal pattern (unconfirmed). I just think it happens to be a trap.
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal
I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020.
Agreed it's prudent to watch our hopium intake, Hairy, but 2020 seems awfully long for a return to $6k. Granted, we had a nearly 2-year downturn after Mt Gox from 2014-5 with little to no good news, but as far as fundamentals go, 2019 seems ripe for recovery.
What are your assumptions on big ticket items? To name a few expected in the first half of 2019:
Van Eck/CBOE ETF (admittedly low chances)
Bakkt
Fidelity Digital Assets
Nasdaq Futures
Are you thinking these things won't happen or rather they simply won't make much of a speculative difference? Are you weighing your prediction primarily on prior halving cycles? Are you correlating with global stock market expectations?
I worry that speculative interest is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy of chart analysis and pattern matching. The 2014 overlay to 2018 is eerily similar, yes, but is this simply a case of humans seeking solace in pattern matching?
Meanwhile, the lightning network is exponentially expanding, BCash is conveniently self-immolating, blockchain investment and employment numbers are steadily increasing, etc etc.
Sure, miners seem SOL, nothing new there; but I suspect new miners will find new places to slurp up cheap/stranded power, further decentralizing the network.
I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market. None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market. Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term. It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.
TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price. The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals). The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint. Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up. Its really that simple. The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.
Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.
My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k. That is going to require a really powerful event. The current descending wedge is not it IMHO. Keep in mind that $6k is almost a doubling in price.
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