The Catfather

Making 10% monthly in a flat market should be considered a very good result

Obviously, your profits in a rising market (or falling, for that matter, if you are into shorts) will depend on how steep is the rise (fall). Other than that, you don't have to be glued to the charts and your monitor all day long but you should definitely be around when the price starts moving big time. That means you may not make a trade a few days in a row (this is where you should keep patience at all costs and times), but in such cases it is always the calm before the storm. And when the storm finally comes, you should be ready to strike while the iron is hot

Today's volumes are likely no less fake

But that's mostly irrelevant as in 2013 prices had been way lower than they are now (I mean most of 2013, obviously), and dumping 10k bitcoins was not a big deal either specifically because it wasn't a huge amount in dollar terms. Besides, even if we crash to those figures (say, below 1k), we are not going to see such orders again for the simple reason that people are now very well aware of the true potential of Bitcoin as everyone has already seen it in action (read, no milk for exchanges this time)

As they say, if there is a will, there is a way

Many regular exchanges (like NYSE, CBOE, etc) had been caught cheating in the past. They were penalized, though it doesn't look like they abandoned their dirty tricks as they just went for more complicated stuff. And it would be extremely naive to suggest that things are somehow different in crypto. On the contrary, it is the unregulated nature of many cryptocurrency exchanges that allows them to easily get away with market manipulation. Really, if there is no regulation, what can authorities do?


The manipulation techniques are essentially the same as with any other tradable asset out there, and they have little to do with what you describe here (read, it is not about traders placing orders - whales or otherwise)

Just in case, insider trading is also illegal even though it is all about placing orders in the way you mean it

Yes, sort of (but I guess you know that yourself)

Actually, you already know that "proof" as it is no secret that runaway market manipulation (market rigging, for the lack of a better word) is one of the reasons the financial authorities (e.g. SEC) refuse to give their consent to Bitcoin ETF's. For what it's worth, they articulate it quite clearly that their primary concern with cryptocurrencies is market manipulation, as simple as it reads. Well, none other than Jay Clayton, the chairman of the SEC, said the following:


Does it count as a proof to you or is he more like some random poster on the speculation board?


Technically, this is what I'm trying to convey and emphasize here, that the whales are mostly sitting on the fence (or roaming in neutral waters)

And there's an easy explanation for this "phenomenon". Above all, the total majority of people involved in crypto are here for the quick buck and they don't particularly care for the technological innovation (I mean tweaks and Improvements beyond what plain vanilla Bitcoin offers). In simple terms, people may be interested in all these things only insofar as they add to hype and speculation. But if a coin is not used in real life (which is true to varying extents in respect to any cryptocurrency out there), its advantages like speed and cost are close to being completely inconsequential

This is the harsh truth how crypto goes, get used to it

Is there any chance the campaign continues past the four weeks?

Hang on a sec, if they are not the master manipulators, who is then?

But most importantly, if exchanges control only 8% of the volume (I'm curious where you got that number), it doesn't mean they cannot manipulate prices. Well, I assume you think like major manipulation, i.e. moving prices up and down dozens of percentages and keeping it there. But that's not what I mean. I primarily refer to price manipulation in the form of unexpected flash crashes and bursts that make traders panic and get out of their positions either willingly or forcibly (e.g. via liquidation of margin positions)


The point is, I do not particularly believe in the narrative of whales massively manipulating prices (note, I don't deny their existence as such)

So you tend to think that there are individuals with deep pockets (like the Winklevii twins mentioned above) who are actively buying and selling coins (as this is what control over the prices comes down to), right?


But how's that possible?

If there's only so much Bitcoin in the world? Unless a derivatives market orders of magnitude exceeding the spot market emerges, the institutional investors won't be able to make a dent or pierce a hole in the pockets of the whales, Bakkt or no Bakkt. But if paper bitcoins crowd out the real ones (i.e. the ones actually existing on the blockchain), this will severely undermine the whole idea behind cryptocurrency. All in all, it will turn Bitcoin into yet another fiat (with virtually unlimited issuance)

Half of the threads in this board (i.e. Speculation) is about whales manipulating the market in one way or another. But do they really exist and what is their real impact? If you want to find out, stay with me

I think it can be assumed as an established fact that there's some kind of market rigging going on at any time, which makes room for speculations about rich dudes moving prices as they see fit. Just as there is little doubt that some market manipulation is actually happening (though it remains to be seen how much of any given price move is in fact caused by this manipulation), there is also little doubt that quite a bunch of people involved in cryptocurrencies are extremely rich. But are they really behind every price manipulation out there?

My take is that they are not. Of course, when they start to sell, the price goes down, and when they go on a buying spree, the price goes up, which is kind of self-explanatory. With that said though, I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone. Indeed, you could say that they are the whales in question but I have to disagree with this point of view as they don't own the funds of their traders (though they definitely use these funds to massage the prices to their advantage)

What's your take on this?

Personally, I don't expect a lot of panic selling at 3k

There might be some sell-offs at 3.7-3.8 but at these levels and below we should expect large numbers of short positions to get closed (which had been opened at and above 4k). And they would support prices in their current range as closing shorts is equal to buying and providing steam for the upward pressure

Anyway, it is unlikely that we can go to 3k if this market is going to continue unless there is an outlier in the form of a desperate whale looking to cash out immediately. The bottom line is that don't expect too much from this market (read, you can't teach the old dog new tricks), though some coins may certainly have their "madness moments"

People still make decisions based on these indicators (fundamentals included), so you can't possibly deny their impact. Actually, without them, it would be gambling. This is not to say that with them it is much different from gambling (for the masses) but you get the point (at least I hope so)


I'm not sure if Bitcoin was actually outperforming other coins (for instance, Bitcoin had been an underdog to Litecoin exactly in 2017), but if your point comes down to holding crypto, then I technically agree with you. Whether the crypto market is going to follow the stock market on a long enough timeframe, we have yet to see (I mean if simple holding is going to outperform trading for the majority of traders)

I like the way you put it (yeah, I do)

Though I can't say that average people (let's call them wannabe traders) are necessarily stupid on their own. It is rather their actions that become chaotic and irrational (sometimes bordering on outright insane) when they get under the stress of adverse market conditions. And then everything happens like you describe, i.e. they keep on buying and selling at the wrong time. But let's admit it, we all have been through this

That would add even more insult to injury

Imagine the frustration and disappointment of someone who withstood all the pain of holding through hard times and low prices but wasn't able to resist the temptation of selling prematurely when the price had just started to recover a little. As they say, there are two deadly sins in trading, the first not closing your position when the prices start to fall and closing it early when the prices start to rise (the tricks that fear and greed play on us)

I think you should redefine "momentum"

As it is the market in general which can lose momentum. Whales can lose incentive or interest, they can't lose momentum because they are whales, i.e. they have enough dough to move the price in either direction (or even in just one direction), as per definition. Otherwise, they wouldn't be whales, right? In this day and age (in cryptocurrency terms, of course), whales seem to be more interested in altcoins since Bitcoin is pretty well established by now and trying to speculate with it may backfire and burn their fingers (and fins)

I'm not sure what being intelligent actually refers to here

For example, you basically say that people who bought in late 2017 were not intelligent investors, but we know that only in hindsight (remember, everyone is wise after the event). With that said, how do we really know if today's prices are going to explode and not in fact crash a few times again in the coming months? So how can researching and studying the market help for real if the whole shebang is still mostly about gambling and just hopes (likely futile)?

You basically already answered your own question

I mean the question about what crypto can offer when Visa offers instant settlements and very low fees. In fact, card payments are pretty close to instant already, and as far as buying goods or ordering services is concerned, they are already mostly free of charge as well. Strictly speaking, you can even receive moneyback which essentially turns fees into an imaginary number

For this reason, there is not much what can be improved in this department and here lies the major difference between Visa and their likes on the one side and cryptocurrencies on the other. In simple terms, people use crypto because they don't want to have anything to do with fiat as such (and its drawbacks which are innumerable). So neither Visa nor MasterCard can do anything about it as this is beyond their range of influence

If you ask me, it is not so much impossible as it is meaningless (I mean looking for emotionless trading)


And here you seem to come to the right conclusion yourself

It is not emotions that make you fail as it is not the lack of them that make you win. It is having a good and profitable strategy, so no trading bot will substitute or compensate you the lack of such. In other words, with a good strategy, your emotions are not going to get in your way

In fact, they will only make your trading more fun and ultimately more profitable as you will be more inclined and encouraged to improve on it via a positive feedback loop that emotions provide. For that reason alone, you shouldn't turn yourself into an emotionless trading machine. Instead, you should funnel your emotions in the right direction

That remains to be seen, actually

Personally, I see no plausible reason why they would be interested in developing their own cryptocurrency. From my perspective, it is more like trying to get into something which you can't prevent or forestall, i.e. they will try to use cryptocurrencies in order to squeeze more profits from their operations

At first glance it seems like a good idea as it means more adoption, but on the other hand, as the saying goes, beware of Greeks bearing gifts and Visa making inroads into cryptocurrencies. This gift may turn out to be a Trojan horse of sorts (sorry for bringing in a lot of mythology here)

At all times you should remember that every coin out there (Bitcoin included) has two sides

For example, you say that some people in your quarters had been saved by Bitcoin and that may very well be true. But you should never forget that there is no free lunch. So if some people were able to increase their purchasing power (which I don't deny), some other people should have lost it as this is what a zero-sum game is all about and this is where Bitcoin truly belongs. In other words, Bitcoin can be devastatingly damaging and the crowds of desperate bagholders are a walking example of just that

Indeed, it could be hypothesized that the flow of purchasing power is from the rich to the poor, but it is rarely the case in real world. On the contrary, it is an established fact that the poor become poorer over time by contrast with the rich who typically become richer, and crypto is no exception here. The bottom line is that while Bitcoin may in fact have helped some, it is equally possible that it has ruined some in the process as well. This is the missing part of the truth which you forget to think of. Think about it next time