That whole thread is a hoot and a half.  Thanks.  Monero under $25.  What are you waiting for?

Sarcasm on the intertubes. Oi.

There is no market dark enough.

It is because the core team has demonstrated such wisdom and responsibility in the development to date that I have great confidence in the future of Monero.  There is no other team in crypto which is comparably respectable.  Yes, there is great talent in the Bitcoin core, but the collective is dysfunctional, and the leadership is absent.  Yes, there is great talent in the Ethereum core, but the collective is corrupt, and the leadership is immature.  Monero stands out for the healthy, adaptive character of its core group dynamic, and for its consistent and mature leadership.

XMRBTC volume is never going to allow XMR to reach parity, but only asymptote.  Parity and beyond will require direct fiat volume.  We need some diligence on the livecoin.net management, to get XMRUSD flowing.

Another bull run will come when a large accumulator decides to increase their position.  Since our new whale friend is a long term bull, and his disappearing scare walls show that he has been suppressing price, I have to conclude that he plans to force liquidate the shorts, thereby taking their monero and their btc.  Meanwhile he buys cheap, and does not let them cover. Ideally he would seek to squeeze both longs and shorts, alternately.

Alternatively a bull run can come very slowly, creeping, as the economy grows.

The mooted impetus, technical developments, will often trigger grassroots speculation, which is perhaps the least stable form of price support, outside of sheer Ponzi pumping.  It does, however, add to the confidence of hodlers, as well as facilitating adoption in the very long run.

I agree with febo and TrueCryptonaire about volume.  When volume drops enough, it will mean the shorts are exhausted, and ripe for squeezing.

I disagree that classic wisdom doesn't work.  It merely needs to be appropriately conditioned on actual market structure, scaled appropriately, etc. The roles of supply and demand do not change.  The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change.

Poking around on an onion-address market, I ran into this, which pleased me to no end: 

" PURCHASE 5 UNITS WITH MONERO (XMR) AND RECEIVE THE 6th UNIT FREE "

At least some vendors prefer Monero quite strongly, to the point of offering an effective 17% discount.

The major difference is that Monero lacks the marketing presence that Etherium had. We may develop some marketing when the GUI is official, but it is likely to be much more grassroots because of the lack of prominent venture or corporate sponsorship. This may slow the rise.

I must say that fluffypony is certainly fulfilling the role of vitalik as a public face, with excellence and maturity.

Longs need to borrow Bitcoin not Monero

I understand that this is not about me, but rather than let anyone think that I am something that I am not, I would interject that I have never been a major maker and I have largely stopped making market because the bots seem to be keeping spreads pretty tight, and the large moves make it dangerous to be too much in bitcoin. (Try never to do anything a machine can do better.) But do please feel free to use me as a rhetorical foil.  It helps validate my "legendary" narcissism.

In the pale moonlight, yes.  An inescapable condition, I think.


Absolutely seems a bit strong.  I wasn't actually speculating about what they are doing or a planning to do so much as - a more interesting question - what they will in fact do, in the future.  It is just possible that I follow the culture and politics of the PRC more closely than some readers, and my opinions about their behaviour might be more informed than some.  But it's hard to know that unless we articulate those ideas for discussion.   Hopefully, the best-informed and most soundly-reasoned ideas will become evident, and help us all to have a clearer view - if only marginally so in cases where the S/N ratio is unfavorable (such as this one).  I can certainly observe what I consider to be the rational self-interested choices of the various tiers of China's highly stratified class structure.  A more nuanced view would game-out the choices we can expect from each of the 5 or 6 major classes, rather than making a naive inside-outside group distinction.


That is news to me, for which I thank you.  My point was that the Chinese uptake of LTC was strong relatively early.  I think that the role of 华人 in the foundation of LTC may have been significant to that outcome.  I did not intend to say anything about the price history of LTC rather, about the engagement of a demographic.

Well if you won't, I will.  BTCUSD is up and XMRBTC is up since then.  I will briefly comment on this positive correlation in the speculation thread, if you care to follow: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.new#new

It s a speculation thread after all.  I made a statement about the set of facts, rather than a statement of facts.  

I am certainly interested to know how your recollection of the Chinese uptake of LTC in 2013 differs from my statement, which was a fairly weak one, i.e. does not place strong constraints upon the set of consistent facts.

I notice that despite BTCUSD rising, XMRBTC has been rising today.  In "alt" coins, typically the opposite would be true.  I speculate that this correlation will become persistent, and that XMR will behave like a high-beta version of BTC.  I.e. when BTCUSD rises, XMRUSD will rise even more, on average.  This should continue for a few years.  I suspect the beta will be asymmetric, however.

Yeah it looks like the battle of 0200 went to the bears again.  Oh well.  Higher lows and higher highs, anyhow.  That's a change for the better, and a good set-up for the weekend.k b

Good luck with that 700 btc scare wall.  Keep flashing it and one of these days I'll just swallow it and burp.  It isn't gonna stop the China run, that's for sure.

For the record, I am a nigger kike cracker gook wop spic hallucinating cat smoking a cigarette in a holder.  And I exhibit all of the typical characteristics of my race and culture.  People trigger on that race stuff, particularly in language. It seems incredibly stupid to me, a cultivated psychosis.

Yeah, I expect one last desperate slam-down, with suppressive fire, as shorts attempt to cover before the weekend jam session.


The sabbatarian wedge.  It is awesome.

About 20% right now.  I've seen closer to 50% when it was running hot.

I think a significant share of the BTC being bought is being spent on XMR, or will be over the weekend up-coming.

When it breaks through 0200 again, I expect a jump, possible squeeze.  Shorts need to defend 0200 with vigor, or they are rekt.

Bid side 8300 BTC now, asks down to 300k.  EPIC.

Next time BTC is up and XMR is up, I hope you will notice and draw our attention to that as well.  But I doubt it.


That would be nice.  But everybody is fearful of exchange risk, I think.  They could make crazy money, if they could establish credibility.  

I would also remind everyone of https://market.bitsquare.io/?market=xmr_btc

XMR is going to be suppressed for the masses and embraced by the party princes in China.  I doubt we will ever see a Huobi-style pump from PRC punters, but the big money...that is going to creep up on you and slingshot you to the moon when you least expect it.  Day-traders will be rekt and hodlers will meet their apotheosis in a sudden moment.

I am guessing the 1bn mcap mark might trigger the first trickle of serious off-shoring money flows from China.  Until then it's just too market-moving.  Try to buy a million monero some time.  Ha!  Litecoin established a precedent of Chinese interest in #2, so passing ETH mcap is another possible trigger point.

Negative elasticity indeed.

I generally hoard, and use 5% for small-time manual market making and the occasional opportunistic speculation.

I am sure there are some margin long/short swing traders here as well.  I am too fond of my hoard to risk it that way.  And yes, fib levels are helpful.

As for the volume: lots of bots and a couple of bitcoin whales are converting to XMR, trying to get a good price.  Keep in mind that the ambition of Monero to be the dominant private fungible unlinkable untrace-able currency is well under weigh to become a manifest reality.  The appeal to HNW individuals and international funding channels seems obvious enough and DNM adoption is sufficient to raise liquidity levels to a point where those uses becone practical.  Many of the radical upside potentials which bitcoin squandered with bad governance suddenly become achievable again, in Monero.  Rationally the only logical thing to do is get as many as you can and hold them as tightly as you can.  But day-traders dunning-kruger much.

As my Num.Analysis Ii prof used to say: there are no stupid questions, only stupid questioners.

Not one of my favorite people.

Just a warm-up for the weekend, when punters in singapore, shenzhen and macao get paid, read the international business times, and place their bets.