As long as there is Market demand, they will be created in a Capitalist system. Robots will be making robots and people will have the funds to purchase. However, don't think a communist system will develop these, risk will not be viewed worthy of cost by the people/group making the decisions. BTW, Capitalism is not dying.
Demand will fall due to rising unemployment because people won't have money to purchase if they don't have a job. Its how capitalism works! I am not asserting that post-capitalist economies (socialism, communism, syndicalism, wealth redistribution through guaranteed minimum income etc) will be everywhere. Probably scenario is collapse of the large countries to small parts and each will have own economic model. Nevertheless, it means the end to the globalization and worldwide dominance of the corporations. |
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Bitcoin or all cryptocurrencies dead!
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No no, I meant, if I was in a capitalist system, why would I make robots and things if there is no one who is able to afford those robots and things because they don't have a job or make too little money?
Of course robots' manufacturers will target on the corporations who want to reduce costs by replacing expensive human labor with more cheap robots. Most likely they won't produce personal robots (household androids) in near future because R&D costs are sky-high so most people cannot afford buying them. Even Google have admitted about it. |
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World population grew by 1 BILLION last decade.
And the number of unemployed has increased by more than a billion around the world? Who knows, may be yes... Official stats are heavily rigged, don't trust them at all! For example, about 1 million U.S. long term unemployed will lose benefits in January and probably will be deducted from the unemployment rate. Also don't forget about underployment (i.e. people work only 3-4 hours a day with appropriate wage reduction) which is rampant now. Better look at Shadow Stats alternate unemployment rate which looks much more trustworthy! |
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0.01 BTC will be given away at January 1, 00:00 UTC on Daily Bitcoins! Happy new year! |
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0.01 BTC will be given away at January 1, 00:00 UTC! Happy new year!
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Sold to whom? If robots end up making it so that no one can afford to pay for anything, then robots are not the most profitable option, is it.
Already discussed in another thread - robots don't require health insurance, social security taxes, can work 24/7 in cold dark rooms therefore at some point they will be cheaper than human workers no matter how low wage they receive. Communist countries in recent times have been creating totalitarian states under the guise of economic communism, which was always doomed, because economic communism is only possible when all humans work the same amount (ie, nothing) due to the pervasive human notions of fair effort.
Don't confuse communism and socialism. The last requires only public ownership of the production means with central planning, however still allows fair and reasonable wage differentiation. Some its form is our inevitable future in heavily automated world which is coming! |
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And yes, food is cheaper now. The price might not have changed, or maybe even seemed to go up, but you're forgetting inflation.
In Latvia where I live in its false completely. Other EU countries also don't experience food price drop as I now (adjusted to inflation of course). But if you look at the world as a whole, you see strongly positive number of new jobs (HUGELY strongly positive), which means, as I've said, that jobs are not disapearing, they are moving away to other developing countries.
World population grew by 1 BILLION last decade. You have to see at labor participation rate, which looks completely different! |
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It's seems to me as more things become automated the more work I have to do.
Unfortunately, increase in productivity throw away from the market whole countries and regions (e.g. Spain, Greece, Latvia, Hungary, Bulgaria) however providing some extra work to the people in the industrial centers where automated machines are located (e.g. Germany and Netherlands). But if you count number of job gains and losses EU-wide, you will see strongly negative number! |
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There's no transaition from one to the other. Otherwise we wouldn't still have agriculture and industry.
I never said previous sector being completely destroyed after each transition. Just number of employed people falls to insignificant numbers (e.g. there is still agriculture in the U.S., but it provides just 2% of jobs). It's not faith, it's how things are actually working in the real world, right now. It's as much of a theory as any other science theory, like the theory of gravity. Automation, efficiency, things getting cheaper, and everything else. Just because you don't see it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
May be it is true for few products like electronics and IT, but for the most stuff its completely false! Houses, education, healthcare, energy, food (agriculture already automaded by 99% now!) don't show any signs of price reduction and even opposite if we count median workers' wage (which is falling due to automation and offshoring). |
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The robots would never be built if the capitalist system didn't provide the incentive and rewards for innovating the products (robots) needed by society.
Capitalist system DO provide a lot of incentive to develop robots because they almost guaranteed will be sold with a profit if their cost + maintenance will be lower than workers' wages (including perks, insurance premiums, taxes etc). |
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Well, let's look at the macro model of agriculture. Do you need to work from 6am to 7pm, doing difficult manual labor, in order to feed yourself? No. Automation replaced farming, so now you can do much simpler and easier work, and still get enough food.
Transition from the Argriculture -> Industry -> Services was discussed a lot of times above, as well as assumption that there is no 4th sector after "Services". How about the macro model of manufacturing? Do you need to work for weeks just to put together a car, or some other gadget, or pay close to $100,000 just to buy a car? No. Automation replaced most of the manual labor required to manufacture goods, and now you can do much simpler and easier work and still get things like cars and gadgets.
Do you see where the trend here is? Less work, and simpler work, to get the same type of stuff that required a lot of back breaking labor just a few decades ago. In the future, you may be able to afford food, a car, and whatever else you need, just for the labor of wiping down some robots with rags, and replacing a few screws.
I am wondering why some people still believe automation will make anything "cheap as dirt"! This will never happen because your fundamentalist faith in the free markets is just a pure theory having nothing with the real world where do exist monopolies, patents, cartel agreements etc! |
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Those are just examples that can be quickly and easily used because they are famous, and they are famous because they are rich. Do you know my mechanic, Bard? He started out with nothing, now owns his own shop. He's modestly rich by most standards, but he makes a lousy example on the internet because you have never heard of him.
There is a huge spectrum between starving in the streets and Bill Gates. To get off of one end, you don't need to make it all the way to the other end. Most of the middle is very nice.
In this topic I tried to draw a macro-model, i.e. what will happen for the society a whole. Of course exceptions exist for some sectors, but these small niches not affected by automation where you can work for yourself not being a superstar (e.g. hairdresser, plumber, mechanic, repairman etc) will evaporate very quickly as crowd of unemployed will try to take these jobs! Also don't forget that AI capabilities are not static, so after 20 years there may be even robo-mechanic and robo-hairdresser. |
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See, that is exactly what I'm talking about. People like Bill Gates, Sergey Brin, Steve Jobs, and others like them didn't have jobs, or capital to live off of, yet they live pretty damn well. Capitalism is not finding an employer and hoping he will give you a job. That's the sad brainwashing that you and many others were convinced of. Capitalism is creating wealth and trading it with others. If you can't find employers to give you a job, you be the employer. Sure, it's not easy, and is much more difficult to figure out than just having someone else tell you what to do and give you money for it, but it is way better than starving to death.
I think you understand that people like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates are 0.000001% of the population, other will never repeat their success! For the remaining 99.999999% only one option to not to starve will be fighting, and they no doubt will fight if the economic model won't be adapted to post-labor era! |
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Do you know how many programmers (!) are unemployed in the EU and US now!?
I don't know. I haven't read the latest death toll from starvation numbers. Maybe you can tell me? Of course they don't starve because welfare and crappy jobs like burger flipper still exist. it's still pretty dumb that you keep thinking of capitalism as "having a job."
Under capitalism if you don't have a job you cannot live (not counting welfare and charities that only allow not to starve). You are too far into the "get a good paying job to survive" brainwashing mentality.
If you are not lucky enough to get capital and live from its rent, its only way to survive in the capitalist economy model! |
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The only safe way to don't pay taxes from your Bitcoins is to sell them for cash ("from one hands to another ones").
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So, it'll be like the Taliban on camels, fighting US with their satellites and drones?
Desperate people with AK-47 have much better chances than police with drones and satellites! Besides, why would they want to fight? If, as you claim, technological unemployment will make us all poor, then they won't earn much for risking their life fighting.
Your argument contradict himself. People will fight when they have nothing to lose - risking the life is much better than starvation for most people! Try not to eat just 3 days and you will understand what is it! It's pretty sad, and rather disgusting, that some people's default reaction to seeing someone else's wealth is "I'm going to kill him and take it for myself" instead of "I'm going to learn from him and create it for myself."
You should read OP before writing this rubbish - "white collars" will be (or yet being) affected as well as unskilled workers, so even if you learn hard it won't guarantee success. Do you know how many programmers (!) are unemployed in the EU and US now!? Even if entire population will learn valuable skills (programming, 3D modeling, robot maintenance etc) there won't be enough jobs for them all under capitalism! P.S. I intended to discuss peaceful ways to solve technological unemployment issue and not the civil war, which is rather obvious if we won't solve this problem. |
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BitShips closed. Script and domain "bitships.eu" available for sale!
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More likely it would mean that no one would make such devices, if they cost millions or billions, and there aren't enough people to buy them. So the only things that will be made will be the things that the makers actually know can be sold. Maybe that means that the TVs won't be as big, and gadhets won't be as fast, but I'm sure these wealthy types will manage somehow.
I don't think "tech elite" will be much happy with this fate - living in the small enclaves, spending large resources on the defense (80-90% "useless population" will fight very hard trying to capture these cities) and even don't having hi-tech products!  |
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