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381  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 16, 2015, 03:06:45 PM
One of the most popular awards ceremonies in music industry is that of Annual Grammy Awards, and the 2016 Grammy Awards ceremony will be held on Monday, February 15, 2016 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Ten days ago, nominations were released, and now you can bet on the main three categories. And please suggest if you would like to see more markets created for Grammys or any other Awards ceremonies.

Album of the Year will probably be decided between '1989' by Taylor Swift and 'To Pimp A Butterfly' by Kendrick Lemar. Though, your favorite could be 'Beauty Behind The Madness' by The Weekend so you can find great odds at that one here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-album-of-the-year/.

The Weekend is also the third favorite when it comes to the Record Of The Year for 'Can't Feel My Face' but once again without big chances. By far the biggest favorite is 'Uptown Funk' by Mark Ronson Ft. Bruno Mars, and even 'Blank Space' by Taylor Swift has rather small chances. If you are also sure that 'Uptown Funk' will win Grammys you can bet here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-record-of-the-year/.

Meghan Trainor is a favorite for the always popular New Artist award but it could be one of the most interesting categories as James Bay and Sam Hunt also have good chances. And if you think that even Courtney Barnett or Tori Kelly could win it, you can place bets on them as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-new-artist/.
 
382  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 15, 2015, 04:11:20 PM
Most political analysts believe it is an almost certainty that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic party’s presidential candidate in 2016, so that leaves the question open for who her running mate will be. And it is even possible for Bill Clinton to be his wife’s running mate.

Still, in October she said that if she wins her party's nomination, then she would seriously consider making Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro her running mate. At 40 years old, Castro is relatively young, and he’s also Hispanic, so it not a surprise that he is at the moment favorite for the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-nominee/. But, it is far from decided so you have options like Tim Kaine, Martin O'Malley, Cory Booker, or any other open as well.

It is even more open when it comes to the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee as it is far from sure who will be a Presidential Nominee. Anyway, there is an opinion that the Republican presidential nominee will need a woman by his side to run against Hillary Clinton. Thus, Carly Fiorina has a minimal lead at the moment, while being followed by John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley.

There is still a lot of factors for these markets and that's making them even more interesting as odds are really good. What are your opinions on them and do you have any other suggestions for the US Presidential Election markets? Those already created you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/.

383  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 14, 2015, 04:11:32 PM
Four days ago, Golden Globes 2016 nominations list was revealed and thus here are the markets for the seven main categories: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/golden-globes/all/

One of the strange nominations was one that put The Martian in the category of Best Picture: Musical or Comedy. So, though The Martian has biggest chances to win it (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-musical-or-comedy/), it is really unusual to see this movie among comedies.

In the category of the Best Picture: Drama, by far the biggest favorite is 'Spotlight' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-drama/), while its director Thomas McCarthy is the second favorite for the Best Director award, behind Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director of 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-director/).

The biggest favorite among the all categories is Leo DiCaprio for the Best Actor: Drama , for his role in 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-drama/), while Matt Damon should win the Best Actor: Musical or Comedy for 'The Martian', another strange award this movie could get (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/).

When it comes to the ladies, Brie Larson in 'Room' is the first option when it comes to the Best Actress: Drama (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-drama/), while Jennifer Lawrence in the first favorite for the Best Actress: Musical or Comedy, though Amy Schumer could win this award as well, for her role in 'Trainwreck' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-musical-or-comedy/).

Anyway, there is a lot of the other nominees so you can choose other bets as well, and you can also suggest if you want to see some other markets created when it comes to the Golden Globe Awards.
384  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 11, 2015, 01:34:13 PM
In June this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said a woman will be featured on a redesigned $10 bill in 2020 - the 100th anniversary of the Constitution's 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

Since then there was a lot of speculation who deserves to be the first woman on U.S. paper currency since Martha Washington, who was on the $1 Silver Certificate between 1891 and 1896. And though this $10 bill will appear in 2020, the announcement should be made in the following weeks.

So, who is your favorite for the Woman that will be on a new $10 bill? Eleanor Roosevelt, Harriet Tubman, or someone else? Hurry up, as the announcement could be made any day now: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/which-woman-will-be-on-a-new-10-bill/.
385  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 10, 2015, 12:57:48 PM
In the last few days Donald Trump once again refused to close the door to a third-party presidential bid as he he is not being treated well by the GOP 'establishment'. "A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent," he tweeted two days ago, so as pledges and promises mean nothing to him, his supporters turn a blind eyev on that.

With this, Trump is tacitly saying that he will make Hillary win, if he doesn’t get what he wants. Because of this topic being popular once again, you now have an open market on Will Donald Trump be a third party presidential candidate in 2016 and odds on him deciding so are really good: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-be-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016/.

So, what do you think about this? Will Donald Trump break his pledge, leave the list of Republican presidential candidates and runs as an independent/third-party candidate at the 2016 Presidential Election?
386  Local / Hrvatski (Croatian) / Re: Koliko nas ima? on: December 09, 2015, 12:25:36 PM
Pozdrav iz Sarajeva. Nekako je lijepo na Bitcointalku kuckati po naški.

Ali pošto sam tu ipak poslom, izvinite me što koristim vrijeme da vam promovišem Fairlay opkladu, da li je Craig Steven Wright ustvari Satoshi Nakamoto, pošto se danas samo o tome priča: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/is-craig-steven-wright-satoshi-nakamoto/.
387  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has Wired discovered the real Satoshi Nakamoto? (.. this time) on: December 09, 2015, 12:08:27 PM
First i was really convinced that Dr. Wright was Satoshi Nakamoto but now i am sure that he is not. Satoshi Nakamoto must be Batman and not James Bond Tongue

For those of you being sure, there is an open market on Fairlay to bet if Craig Steven Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/is-craig-steven-wright-satoshi-nakamoto/.
388  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 09, 2015, 11:49:12 AM
In any case, all publicity is good so let them do their blockchain technology promoting thing.

And as we talk about publicity... There was rarely a headline for the Bitcoin community as interesting as WIRED's 'Bitcoin’s Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This Unknown Australian Genius'. So, do you think that Craig Steven Wright is really Satoshi Nakamoto, or was he a member of the team that created Bitcoin? Or all of it is an elaborate hoax?

Anyway, you surely have your opinion and you have also a chance to earn from it on the open market 'Is Craig Steven Wright Satoshi Nakamoto?' So, don't miss it: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/is-craig-steven-wright-satoshi-nakamoto/
 

389  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 08, 2015, 04:38:26 PM
Next year will be another important year when it comes to the marijuana legalization in USA, as Californians will probably once again weigh in on this issue. In 2010, Proposition 19 would have made this state the first in the country to legalize marijuana, but voters defeated the measure by a 53.5-46.5 margin.

But, from then on four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska) have gone on to legalize cannabis, so many suspect California is ready to do likewise. And it could be really important voting as California represents one of the world’s largest economies all on its own, so if cannabis is legalized, it will have a dramatic effect across the country.

Recently, it is a really popular topic as, in California's race to legitimize recreational marijuana, at least 10 legalization initiatives are vying to appear on the state’s November 2016 ballot. So, if you have your own opinion you have now open market on this issue as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.
390  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 07, 2015, 05:22:19 PM
As he comes into his final 13 months as President, Obama is once again under the pressure to close Guantanamo Bay prison. He has long held a deep personal conviction on the issue, dating back to his days as a senator. He has argued repeatedly that the prison at Guantanamo provides fodder for extremist propaganda, damages relations with allies, and violates America’s values.

But even after so many years, he did not close it, though since Obama took office, the administration has gradually cut the number of detainees by more than half, from 242 to 112. But at the same time, more than 50 detainees have been cleared for release for years because they pose no danger, yet have remained locked away in cages in some sort of legal limbo.

Nowadays, experts are divided over whether Obama actually has the constitutional authority to take action on Guantanamo, and whether he will wait for election to pass to do that. Anyway, it is a popular topic so now you have an open market on it https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obama-to-close-guantanamo-before-leaving-office/ and please express your opinions on this market and suggest additional markets on US Politics.
391  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 04, 2015, 03:09:28 PM
'Russia Accuses Turkey of Smuggling ISIS Oil. Turkey Replies: No, You Are.'

Some think that we have a lot of child's play these days between Russia and Turkey, but other think that things could get even more serious. For now, Turkish President Erdogan was accused that he and his family are involved in this criminal business, so he is in a hard situation right now and thus here is the market on whether he will remain the president of Turkey through 2016, even being elected last year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/erdogan-to-remain-the-president-of-turkey-through-2016-2/.

Other talking topic is about Turkey and NATO, and will Turkey call a NATO Article four consultation once again, after she already did that in July. In the six decades since NATO’s creation, Article 4 has been invoked only five times, three of which were by Turkey. So, if you think that there are chances that Turkey will invoke Article 4 once again before March 1, here is a market for you: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/turkey-to-invoke-natos-article-4-before-march-1-2016-1/.

So, what are your opinions on these markets and do you have suggestions for other markets when it comes to the current situation between Turkey and Russia?
392  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 03, 2015, 01:37:16 PM
One of the interesting election in 2016 will be that for the next United Nations Secretary-General that will determine who will succeed Ban Ki-moon whose term will conclude on 31 December 2016. Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General.

But even more talked topic is that that raises the question of the next UN Secretary-General for the first time being a woman. For now, more of the potential candidates talked about are women, like Dalia Grybauskaite, Dilma Rousseff, or even Angela Merkel. If you also believe that the next Secretary-General will be a woman, you now have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

So, what is your opinion about this market, and do you believe that the winner of this election will be also from the Eastern European Group?
393  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 02, 2015, 07:32:53 PM
A lot of US Presidential Election markets has been created  but what about the US Senate election? It will also be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, with Democrats expected to have 10 seats up for election, while Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

So, it will be interesting to see can Republicans keep the majority in Senate they gained in the previous election, or can Hillary influence Democrats to gain back the majority in Senate. If you have an opinion who will have the majority after the next election, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-keep-a-senate-majority-after-the-2016-election/.

And what are you other opinions about the US Election, and are there some other markets you would like to see open?
394  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: December 01, 2015, 01:45:05 PM
"On Syria, there is no great national benefit for Russia in Assad remaining indefinitely in office, and there is no great national benefit for the U.S. in forcing him to quit instantly, and there is also a shared interest in avoiding a major U.S.-Russia collision. I may be naive but I think this is one of those situations in which the stakes are not that dramatic," said few days ago for Politico Zbigniew Brzezinski.

So, some think that situation about Bashar al-Assad is not so dramatic and that he should stay the president of Syria for the time being, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2021 (he was elected in June last year). But others think that the situation with ISIS is not going in his favor so he won't stay for long as the head of the country. Because of this, you now have open market on whether Bashar al-Assad will remain the president of Syria through 2016: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bashar-al-assad-to-remain-the-president-of-syria-through-2016/

What are your opinions on this market? Do you think that both Russia and US will agree to keep him as president, or is one year more just too much for Assad? And, do you have any suggestions when it comes to the markets about the world politics?
395  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: November 30, 2015, 03:53:15 PM
One of the topics that is often emerging is that about the relationship between Russia and Bitcoin. It was often talked that Bitcoin was banned in Russia but, though not being widely accepted, it was never criminalised. So, it is still safe to be a crypto enthusiasts in Russia but sadly it not sure for how long.

In a recent interview for the CoinDesk, deputy finance minister Alexey Moiseev told that the Ministry was working on a draft law that would seek to punish those converting cryptocurrencies into the ruble with up to four years in prison. That draft is now being reviewed by the Cabinet, and will then be submitted to the Russia's Parliament for final approval.

As Bitcoin could be criminalised in Russia and this often being talked about, you now have an open market about this topic: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-to-be-outlawed-in-russia-in-2016-1/. So, do you think that Bitcoin will be outlawed in Russia in 2016 or do you think that even in this country it has a positive future?
396  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: November 27, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
One of the following elections that is also popular these days is the French presidential election scheduled for April and May of 2017. Latest pools are showing that Sarkozy starts to lose some of the support that goes to Marine Le Pen, Manuel Valls, but also to Alain Juppe. Francois Hollande is also not without the chances so the next French presidential election is going to be really even one. Here is the current market: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.
397  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: November 26, 2015, 03:39:06 PM
Tensions rise in the Middle East after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, and Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing Turkey of being "the terrorists' accomplices" for shooting down a plane he claimed was on an anti-terrorism mission.

But at the same time, daughter of the Putin's slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said that Kremlin critics live in fear under President Vladimir Putin but there will come a time when Russia is ready for a new brand of politician. The next presidential elections in Russia will take place in March 2018, and now you have open market if Vladimir Putin will be reelected as the President of Russia: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/vladimir-putin-to-be-reelected-as-the-president-of-russia/.

At the moment, there are still big chances that Putin will be reelected once again, though his current political decisions could change a lot. What is your opinion on this, and would you like to see some other markets connected with the current political affairs in the world?
398  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: November 25, 2015, 04:07:40 PM
Okay, Star Wars fans, we are less than a month away from the opening of The Force Awakens, and I am sure you will go to see it in the cinema as early as you can. But, how many people will do that and do you think that The Force Awakens can become the highest-grossing movie of all time?

If you think that it can go above Avatar that had a worldwide gross of $2,787,965,087, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-avatar/. But if you think that $2.8 Billion is a bit too much, you can predict that it will go above (or stay above) the worldwide gross of $1.8 Billion: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-1-8-billion/.

Anyway, we are almost there and it is time to enjoy great movie months and, of course, you can already go through the Oscars' markets https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/ and suggest your own as well. So, any opinions?
399  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: November 23, 2015, 07:29:22 PM
Next year we have US presidential election, scheduled for November 8th, with Hillary Clinton having the biggest chances to be the next Democratic President. Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are with the biggest chances when it comes to the Republicans, while you can see the complete betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-president-17/.

So, it is still far from sure who of the Republicans will go against Hillary who will surely be a Democratic nominee. More will be known with the Iowa caucus on February 1st that will serve as an early indication of which candidates for president might win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, and which ones could drop out for lack of support.

Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz are with then even chances to win the Iowa caucus for now, but if you think that Marco Rubio could win it as well, you can find betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-republican-winner/. At the same time, Hillary is with the big chances to be the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus, with Bernie Sanders having some chances: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-democratic-winner/.

One week after Iowa caucus, we will have the New Hampshire primary on February 9th and it will be interesting to see will those results confirm those of Iowa Caucus. For now, Sanders is given rather solid chances when it comes to the Democrats in the New Hampshire primary so he could be rather even with Hillary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-democratic-winner/. As for the Republicans, it will again be tight, though Trump and Rubio are at the moment with the even chances to win the New Hampshire primary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-republican-winner/.

All in all, Iowa and New Hampshire do not have too many voters but with the huge media coverage they can always be an early indicators of what will follow for the rest of the year, before November 8th. What are you thoughts about these, and are there some other US Presidential Election markets that you would like to see?
400  Economy / Economics / Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay on: November 21, 2015, 01:09:42 PM
When we put entertainment and sports together, there are not many events as popular as the Royal Rumble. This professional wrestling event, produced every January by WWE, had some extremely negative audience reaction last time and #CancelWWENetwork became the top Twitter trend worldwide shortly after the event.

So, in will be interesting to see what will WWE do in two months. Will they once again go with the last winner Roman Reigns, or maybe with the crowd favorite Daniel Bryan. On the other side, Brock Lesnar and Dean Ambrose are two main favorites, but John Cena is always there. If you have your favorite for the another spectacular Royal Rumble you can find the markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/wwe-royal-rumble-2016-match/
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