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3801  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / More hashing power online on: July 17, 2013, 12:13:44 PM
Can you see how many mini-rigs were ordered from BFL???  Wink Notice that this is only reported order, and the actual order should be 3-5 times bigger, thus 1-2 PH will soon become a reality

http://bfl.ptz.ro/



3802  Other / Off-topic / Re: My holiday financed by bitcoins on: July 16, 2013, 06:23:05 PM
I think bitcoin is very similar to a foreign currency, it has payment function, but not always possible to pay with it, so do other foreign currencies like JPY/GBP/CNY... As long as you can exchange it for local currency, and the exchange rate is fair, it is no different than spend your local currency abroad

Of course when you back to the home country, which is bitcoin economy, you could directly buy goods/services with bitcoin, but that virtual home country currently is still under construction and not always available everywhere in the world

Anyway, it will work very well if the bitcoin exchanges are like FOREXs, exist in main airport/train terminals/city center and give you local cash directly. Currently I still need a local bank account to receive local currencies if I use localbitcoins.com. But if all the FOREX agencies accept bitcoin, this will be a big step towards the universal adoption of bitcoin

3803  Other / Off-topic / My holiday financed by bitcoins on: July 16, 2013, 02:02:43 AM
Just Rented a boat and cruised along the local islands for 3 days, all fiananced with bitcoin Wink

Of course currently there are not so many people accept bitcoin payment, especially for the private person who rented boat to us. So I have to sell the coins at localbitoins.com and then receive the local currency at my debit card account, I even sold some coins when I was on the sea

It is very convenient doing small transactions on localbitcoins.com, actually sellers there usually ask for 7-9% higher price than MTGOX, but there are still people who are willing to buy

3804  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Criminal Lawsuit against BFL in Germany [in progress] on: July 16, 2013, 12:09:09 AM
Germany custom corruption, they are mining bitcoins like crazy Wink
3805  Economy / Speculation / Re: Liquidity problem on: July 15, 2013, 11:23:35 PM
Here is a more detailed scenario:

Suppose that 2 years are enough long to wait until users start to spend part of their coins, then today we will see some part of the coins from 2011 flowing out. It was 7200 coins per day, so if every bitcoin investor spend 10% of their investment after 2 years, there will be about 720 coins per day flow into the market, for either re-invesment or consumption, this supply is steady and definite

New investors will only spend coins after they have saved for 2 years, so there is almost no coin outflow from current coin generation, they all get saved

And for each year passed, more and more people will reach the maturity of their investment. But, due to the rise of bitcoin price, they might need to spend less and less amount of coins to get their fiat investment back, so the result might still be less than 720 coins net outflow per day

With such small amount of coin supply in the market, if there is a speculator holding hundreds of thousands of coins, he will surely cause wild price fluctuation
3806  Economy / Speculation / Re: Liquidity problem on: July 15, 2013, 10:42:54 PM

And why new people won't want to spend that much money into bitcoin, if they saw this thing appreciated 10 times per year averagely

This happens only because each year newcomers pay 10 times more to buy bitcoins from those, who bought them 10 times cheaper last year. This will not happen forever. When inflow of newcomers into the system will stop, the game will be over. This happens with all financial pyramids sooner or later.


Most of the people are not used to several times profit per year, but some people do. FED is printing 2.8 billion USD per day, that profit is almost infinite, and they don't really feel uncomfortable about it

Of course there is always a concern about sustainability when bitcoin reaches full market saturation, but as more and more saving can be put into it, I don't see why people are going to panic sell. Miner's productivity is much higher than those central bankers who print money out of nothing, if their work worth 2.7 billion USD per day, miner's work will worth at least 27 billion per day, which put a bitcoin price at 7.5 million USD

By the way, all the bubble comes to an end because of two things: Increased supply of the asset and decreased fiat money supply. For bitcoin the first is not going to happen, so it only depends on the second. I'm afraid FED is not going to tighten a lot any time soon, they have much bigger problem right now. And even FED tightens, bitcoin could still gain in value, since reduced amount of fiat money will create requirement for other transaction medium



3807  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Novec 7000 Project [immersive cooling] on: July 15, 2013, 12:22:25 PM
 Smiley Smiley Smiley
3808  Economy / Economics / Re: Re-visit the question: What is bitcoin's value backed by? on: July 15, 2013, 10:24:50 AM
Value,  to its root is decided by the desire. A sustainable and fast price appreciation definitely will call out the biggest desire inside every human Grin
3809  Economy / Speculation / Re: Liquidity problem on: July 15, 2013, 10:19:09 AM
What is the problem?

If everyone is going that, some day, the price will be reduced because new people won't want to spend that much money into bitcoin.
Correction will happen, and people will sell more than xx % of their bitcoin in order to get some profit.

The problem is that the coin supply on the market will always be limited (long term perspective), and that will cause short term price volatitlity

And why new people won't want to spend that much money into bitcoin, if they saw this thing appreciated 10 times per year averagely
3810  Economy / Speculation / Liquidity problem on: July 15, 2013, 09:48:46 AM
No matter how high the bitcoin value is, the coin supply on market will always be limited

Suppose that a new user who were attracted by bitcoin want to invest some of his money into bitcoin and hold it for some time, because the price is volatile short term wise but much more predictable long term wise

Then naturally after bitcoin value rised more than 5 times, he would like to spend 1/5th of his holding to enjoy the return, but still keep the majority of his coin holding as asset. Even one day, his holding are worth so much that he don't even need to worry about spending half of them, he would still spend little of it because the long term profit potential for the saved coins

If majority of people are doing this, for each new people join the bitcoin community, the amount of coins get saved are much more than the amount of coins get spended, this will continuously reduce the daily amount of coin supply, so that almost guarantee the value appreciation long term wise
3811  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [SOLD OUT]Avalon Reselling and Hosting Plan on: July 12, 2013, 09:35:29 PM
Not sure if you want discussion here or by email, I think here would be better save multiple people asking the same questions of you, so I hope you don't mind if I quote.

Quote
3. I had paid the order by bank wiring RMB, but not bitcoin transaction. Though the RMB pricing was based on the exchange rate of bitcoin pricing back in time, there is risk that Avalon team decide that they will refund the RMB amount I wired, which will not be able to buy back the same amount of Bitcoin as Bitcoin has appreciated a lot since then. If this happens, I need your support in the public discussion.

This is going to be crucial to the decision, and I don't see you getting an answer from Avalon in time to make an informed decision

EG ball park figures

$75 at time of ordering, $95 now means on a 4 module unit we could lose 23BTC, obviously that is no good, and we would be better to take delivery as that gives a buffer to get the $ value back.  Plus with the new cgminer build they are running a lot faster than originally thought which helps a lot too.

I'm inclined to keep my order if possible.

I think it is much simpler

OP paid avalon with RMB, so Avalon team will of course refund him with RMB since he paid with RMB. But OP still have our bitcoins, so he should have no problem returning the bitcoins that we sent him. Unless he already sold some coins for RMB, which for this kind of order is highly unlikely, and OP is a true bitcoin supporter, he won't sell any large amount of coins I believe  Wink
3812  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Five Paradoxes of Bitcoin on: July 11, 2013, 07:46:24 PM
No.1 is self-correcting:

If bitcoin's value rise, people's holding will worth more, then they will start to spend part of their holding and still be able to keep the same consumption power, that will increase the coin supply and will cause a drop in the bitcoin value

If bitcoin's value dropped, people will start to hoard, the reduce of supply will increase its value to a point that people are willing to spend again

By the way that is the case for a 100% saturated bitcoin penetration
3813  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Restructuring cooling capacity for Avalon on: July 10, 2013, 11:06:20 PM
GT 5400 RPM does have a PWM signal input, you can either get PWM type of fan or do some manual modification

I got a 192 CFM delta pwm fan, but the noise is not acceptable above 2500 RPM, so in general 120MM fan could not be much better without too much noise, if you want to get higher airflow, better use a 40cm desktop blow fan directly blow into the box, much less noise and more airflow  Wink
3814  Economy / Economics / Re: Re-visit the question: What is bitcoin's value backed by? on: July 10, 2013, 10:41:22 PM
The definitive answer: Nothing, it is unbacked.

Heh, I'll back it.

One ounce of silver for every bitcoin.  I have my 21,000,000 ounces here.  Redemption on demand.

Ha, that's the point!

I think actually everyone who did a little bit research on bitcoin will back it with their own labour/wealth, since it is transparently generated and have fixed limited supply, you know how much exactly it will cost you to back the system

No one dares to back a fiat currency with their labour/products, since you never know how much more fiat the central banks will print and the fact that they could buy everything from you with printed money just sounds ridiculous
3815  Economy / Economics / Re: Re-visit the question: What is bitcoin's value backed by? on: July 10, 2013, 11:58:04 AM
Originally, Bitcoin had a value of zero. But then, a while back someone bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. This put the value of 2 pizzas into the overall system. It was a tiny amount but it still counted. Others have bought drugs and other contraband with BTC. Some have exchanged work for BTC. Some people bought electronics. All of these tiny amounts add up until a currency that is worth essentially zero begins to have value. A while back, a single BTC only traded for a penny but the "intrinsic" value was in there and it grew.


You are misunderstanding what intrinsic value is. You're talking about market value. There is no intrinsic value to bitcoin, only market value. Intrinsic value is typically calculated in finance by looking at the sum of the future income that's generated by that asset, in terms of discounted present value.

What you describe in your post is entirely about market value, which is the only value an unbacked currency has.

Based on your definition, it is a calculation based on future income, how would you know the future if you are not an oracle?  The calculation about the future typically based on an assumption that the current environment do not change, and it only works very short term

There is no such thing as intrinsic value, in most of the today's economics the value is only decided by supply and demand.

Maybe some food/shelter that satisfy the basic requirement of living have intrinsic value, but obviously gold is not among this kind of things but still have intrinsic value
3816  Economy / Speculation / We are entering BTM era on: July 10, 2013, 11:36:20 AM
With more ane more people entering the mining bussiness and mass shipment of ASIC devices, soon average miner will get only 0.1 or 0.01 bitcoin per day (3600 coins per day shared between hundreds of thousands of miners), getting one single BTC per day will become impossible for normal casual miners

And the default counting unit of BTC will change to mBTC (BTM), for easy counting and integer calculation

http://ow.ly/i/2zeoR/original

3817  Other / Politics & Society / Re: "I don't vote"... "it's beneath me"?? on: July 10, 2013, 10:23:33 AM
I feel that those who are weak tends to like vote
3818  Economy / Economics / Re: What would be the cost of keeping BTC - USD exchange rate < 200 ?! on: July 09, 2013, 06:12:01 PM
As usual, you don't need to do anything on the exchange, you just reduce the fiat money supply (FED is going to tighten soon), when available fiat is getting less, people will sell any kind of asset they have for fiat, in order to support their expense. If bitcoin can be spent everywhere, then the price will not be affected by a tightening of fiat money supply, it will get more adoption instead
3819  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is bitcoin price not going up? on: July 09, 2013, 05:52:57 PM
From an investment point of view, there are 3 types of investors in mining industry:

1. Investors who bought ASIC devices using bitcoin
These investors are pure bitcoin only, they will never cash out to fiat since they believe the bitcoin is the way to go, they will not affect the market price

2. Investors who pre-ordered ASIC devices last year using fiat money
For them, they might want to get the invested fiat money back, since currently the ASIC devices are very efficient, they only need to sale small amount of coin to break even, and then they can keep it running risk free

3. Investors who pre-ordered ASIC devices recently using fiat money
They will get delivery in autumn, by that time, to return on investment is not that easy, they might need to continuously sell the coins until they reach break even, they will put a pressure on the price

We might see much more sell presure on the market when difficulty went enough high this autumn

3820  Economy / Economics / Re: Economics of mining today on: July 08, 2013, 08:07:11 PM
In a traditional investment, a great investment could get a 100% annual return during several years' period. But in mining investment, a profitable investment should get a 100% return in just 3 months and then it died after 1 year, means the investment frequency are much higher
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