Not sure if there is a link directly on the site itself, I sometime miss the links for these things but I'll save that one as often I know I got WOF spins in the background somewhere but the message saying to use them doesnt appear for that day or at least at the time I'm logged on.   Maybe they are given randomly within 24hr of that particular day not at a set time.  
  Anyway they are stacked up for me now, just judging if price is liable to lurch downwards hence improving the standard prize slightly.   We are right on the precipice it would seem, I did expect a bounce into higher prices but maybe the time of year makes it quiet and its not quite as ominous as our cliff top view would appear :p  51/52k to beat target upwards, its bit like a bowling ball on ice currently each bounce cracks it a little more
   My take is use up spins, I got the thousands one such luck lol

Bear trap would be that Dollar is subject to possible losses beyond expected.   To that extent its possible its a trap for anyone negative on various trade inverse to Dollar strength but its a long term question generally and you seem more focused on trading dynamics which is more uncertain and subject to volatility both in BTC and generally.    Dollar should be a counter to volatility but its value overall becomes more unknown every year because the fundamentals and general debt burden are worsening.
Bloomberg, Barclays discussion of Dollar prospects

These are both FED based problems from easy money.  The MBS was never traced back to government actions but when you subsidize an industry you allow such bubbles to occur.  The solution from 2008 and 2009 going forward was to entirely take over the industry altogether, the majority of private US housing debt is now owned by government supporting false interest rates in line with FED policy, QE and so on.
   None of this is capitalism, its politics and central government distorting markets for political reasons.   The 'greater good' argument causes alot of harm in side effects.    Nobody has admitted as much, the waters are kept muddy because reform would be costly to whichever party forwarded such actions as required.
   'The can kicked down the road' is a phrase for the eternal problem which eventually does result in a crash or "financial crisis" as OP mentions.  Not because I want it, my commentary would be seen as radical and rejected as such but the basic elements of economics reflect natural dynamics that eventually will deny even the iron grasp of government control.   Same reason why communism is a failure and so on, not because of my or anyone elses personal preference but it just doesnt naturally work and eventually results in failure, collapse and death in the population from starvation in the extreme.  Communism is willing to take that risk, suffer that loss for its continuation of the elite but I do hope we are better then that and able to correct and reform mistakes before the worst occurs

Crypto is not the cause of a problem to finance private, corporate or national interests, its a self adjusting system with no force on the economy except through the free choice of users.  There is no subsidy to its operations, no taxes or laws that deny freedom to use alternatives nothing that resembles a negative not already reflected in its free market price.  Everything has faults, the worst systems are rigid and wont allow any reflection of failure till its too late to adjust course from a crash; this is not the nature of BTC imo

It should easily mount a turn around here in this area, both for support, trend and moving averages supporting that possibility.   If we do break below 200 day average and stay there on 4hr bars leading to a weekly close then I expect far more trouble at that point.   51k or above I will be more confident then right now where it deserves some caution

Its taken me the whole year to win that ticket, it is extremely rare to win one for free.  Maybe one out of us recent winners will get it, collective luck.  Most are either bought or got via benefits of betting on the site I think so it will favor the largest and most frequent bettors.    I dont bet enough to get many more apart from the premium bonuses
  I think some of the shorter term FUN lock expiries would have lead to price weakness  is reasonable speculation, people who got 45% for that lesser duration may not always choose to lock back in but sell.   The tail end of that promotion effect and its term means you have a consensus sell effect, too many people who do sell at once will lead a price downwards.   Its a market effect or trick, happens when companies finance by selling shares into markets etc.  doesnt mean the original asset is any changed just the price is lesser because of that excess liquidity.     Just think sheep in a field, markets are often just people following each other doesnt mean there was ever anything to run from; thats my view of frequent cycles in price down or upwards

It only  has to discontinue the pattern of falling and it should rise from this alone.   We have a series of lows confirming some support below, maintaining that over days and weekly bars will bring bullish action.   I dont imagine it performs so simply but thats the foundation of how markets cycle between periods of selling, there is the outside factors of larger markets and the dollar itself to consider
  3 central banks meet this week, the largest in the world it can be no news or changing for the stance of the next year.  Just the anticipation of that possibility will already have had an effect in caution and less trades risked before the news events.

Theres some near PHD level mathematical analysis of the various slot machine strategy I saw discussed under payout percentage on wiki via confirmed results and recognizing that it does have a series of cycles to wins and losses, both micro and macro eventually allowing for the very largest payout but only once every two hundred thousand plays I think it was listed at.   This is just one game on one machine and in the modern era there is an infinite supply of varying combinations, to narrow it down at all like used to be possible in the level pulling days is increasingly remote.   Just play what you like is best imo, if you win be happy and remember what worked then bet higher if you got more confidence but never forget its just a game

We are likely to check lower prices, thats the way its looking right now.   I see a range bound trade but at the very best that means we bounce off both sides of that box enclosing price action at present, bottom and top prices checked.

Arbitrage is higher risk and should be viewed that way, it can move against you.  The idea might be to hedge all outcomes and Ive done that for more then once but also the devil in the detail can mean you lose out anyway or even worse then normal.   Nice idea but never view any option as risk free, its a great idea if you can grab it to minimize risk and still earn a decent return.  Low risk usually means low returns and alot of patience required not to over bet and raise risk from that.

Theres big viewing figures, its a fight so there'll always be bets.  People bet on street fights nevermind rules or anything, people will bet on anything pretty much.   Its upto the house if they find it all profitable, its a big show with a large crowd so every operator is going to make money seems like.  Its not a good idea to place a large bet, I wouldnt bet more then a token amount its too random for me to guess on.
   I do doubt theres any KO because then its a medical issue and they dont need the controversy or concern for future events, its too much of a gravy train to threaten with anything serious like that.  Whoever wins in any event should mean both boxers walk away winners, Logan cant really lose from this association to his reputation.   Logan is already rich, he lives within boundaries of a tax break agreement not paying Federal taxes due to spending most of his time in a US territory rather then a US state; he is not subject to full taxation for this match so will do very well from it.

I dont mind it going cheaper so long as Im not selling at that point its not a problem for me.   The overall crypto space should continue to mature in 2022, turbulence at the end of 2021 is not something especially big imo or at least there are always larger worries in the world then the exact trading price of BTC over holidays.   If massive volume occurs and price is lower then sure it matters but even then fundamentals are more important then bother over the current trends in various markets to buy or sell various tech and commodities.

Normally I would expect something inverse so that price equalizes.   BTC rising in theory puts pressure on prices in a nominal way  so the dollar price might go sideways but Satoshi price adjust downwards as BTC rises.   Thats short term pressure, overall of course we like to see BTC do well as it generally reflects positively.   BTC is not doing badly, take the year view not looking at your feet but the horizon; theres no way it can or will ever rise every week or month.

Here is a good bullish take on BTC price action across this year.   Its definitely possible we can bounce well from here, I just personally think this is a story for 2022 not the tail end of 2021 where we already saw so much happen saturating the order books with old volume to sell from prior attempts, this will process eventually just not in a single month.   Time will heal the selling and negative will resolve to be a future positive imo

I used to get gifts on my birthday every year, it was so good the government actually banned them for over incentivizing people to gamble.   Kinda sad when idiots have to interfere with business, there was no downside to it just bet anything you like upto a certain limit and we'll refund any losses.   I hope one day they go back to revise the law and ask why it was such a bad thing to refund someones losses for one day out of the year when its really just giving some profits back to a loyal customer.

So the graph goes from 2013 to present using an exponential scale to fit it all on.   The main problem is the Dollar of 2021 is not equal to the Dollar of 2013, it doesnt appear to have changed massively in terms of DXY dollar index because all FIAT currencies have attempted to keep pace with the constant devaluation so as to not upset trade balance globally.   However for pricing predictions on this scale you do need to consider Dollar is unlikely ever to regain its value.    In theory you can swap the present Ruble to the old Ruble at a ratio of 10,000 to 1 but most would not ignore such change in value because it failed so massively, Dollar isnt yet failed to the point of being obvious but for any prediction accuracy over time it shouldn't be ignored value fell.
  If we include that dollar value fell maybe some of the pullback targets make more sense.    We saw 28k low with the prior ATH at about 20k, thats about 29% less then the recent low but if we consider 25% of all dollars newly appeared in 2020 that could roughly translate 2021 to the ATH of 2017.   

I dont rate Liquid's chances especially, I'm a sporting man I'll go for 3 maps at 3x odds thats not so unfair in its chances but the whole series is really as unlikely as the odds reflect.   Navi just won the major without losing a map, thats pretty clear in their dominant effect.   Heroic is more of a decent bet but again I prefer 3 maps, neither of these underdog teams would win without requiring all maps played anyhow.

S2F didnt fail it just tried to be too specific and pinpoint months when its more of a yearly model and only roughly so.   How could we possibly say the price for November or December exactly when the world contains no end of natural events to upset BTC; the volatility in price action is massive and well able to take BTC in either direction by 20% at any time.   You have to take the good times with the bad, BTC can rise alot as it did over the last 12 or 18 months or it can disappoint your expectation for months on end, we can be here till next summer waiting for better news and at times like this just be grateful for past gains not holding out especially for more as BTC certainly does not run a straight boring course it plunges and soars

Yes completely valid as the slot machine will have a payout ratio it must stick to, I think this is part of the law in some countries that regulate the industry.    So just on a simple take if you follow a series of losses the machine is now heavily in profit and is far more likely to pay out.  There should be alot written about this strategy and the various dynamics and rulesets for the machine to follow that you can rely on, like any system of probability its not certain but better odds then normal sure.
   Its so well known I can remember decades ago a Bar tender in a club I went to topped up his wages doing as much.   He was friendly to everyone making food etc. but he was pretty crafty I guess.   Not really illegal so far as I know  but obviously he is there 8 hours or more and can see directly who wins or loses and roughly how much, it gets quiet and he hops on for 5 minutes to take some cash back out the machine.  I'm sure over the course of a year he would make 4 or 5 figures this way just continually gaining the money after people had lost and had to leave to get their lift etc.

People over use that phrase, BTC was feared to be a bubble so many times but its been a decade already so that bubble was cast in iron it would seem not really matching those dynamics.  Volatility is always there however both in ability to rise and pullback as we've seen.    The OP is a bit out of line in his description of price action, we have not even neared the lows of the summer and this current pullback just amounts to profit taking to be expected as normal in occurrence.    
  I quoted your text especially as the signal to sell especially was the new ATH which failed to hold and after very positive news in the BTC ETF being made available.   If we cant continue in such bright sunny days, then expect a colder wind to blow in with this selling its not new we've done it before and my appraisal of this entire year is positive beyond any normal expectations.   This is the perfect score overall, even if we ended 2021 in the 40k area that'd still be my opinion BTC retains extremely good health in terms of its market performance and hopefully continues to improve across all dynamics also.

I dont know it has to achieve significantly higher but price action is positive right now.  It has held the support shown by the recent closing lows, it retested this area on the 11th and put in a higher low which was a place to consider a buy.   Its now passed the weekly average and also beaten the downtrend pattern that could be drawn from the ATH so by time and price it is now performing more positively then that initial selloff.
  What happens now is sellers in place or those who held with intent to sell into this recovery will now affect the price, it may not matter if bidding is greater then the offers but its usual for price to be challenged.   If we can hold the lows of Sunday about 49k area and close higher on the Monday daily bar with the full market volume combatting this weekend recovery in price then once again its a reason to view BTC positively.

Volatility of BTC will shake out a ton of people, could call it panic or an abundance of caution which in crypto is misplaced.   People misallocate and over speculate possibly even borrow to hold BTC when they should not, the price rises alot and remains the capacity to return to its 200 day or 50 week average as it has done recently.   That much should not be a surprise, to the oldest holders and traders it is not but anyone more causally involved gets squeezed out by the sometimes temporary price falls they fear may be lasting.
  Prices that occur on short term bars dont matter half as much as weekly closes in the price, just realizing that much can make for less nervous selling.