I imagine this is an indication you are interested in accumulating BTC again.
Well I don't want to make too small gains, but big gains are fine for me. The castle was bought when BTC was $675. So I am tempted to exchange it back for coins if it goes to $200. And then buy a castle again with 1/3 of the money when BTC is in reasonable prices. Nothing is permanent in life. |
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Marketcapwise, it's hard to believe Bitcoin's troubles depend on altcoins. I have been a proponent of Monero (XMR) but that coin has like $3 million market cap. Even if all this money has been pulled from Bitcoin (most of it is), hardly makes a dent.
Other coins, Quark for example, only spent about $40k in mining, after that it has been PoS. Only this 40k is actual money, the rest is hot air.
I hope and believe that Bitcoin will leave needless alts in the dust as it starts its rise.
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I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.
Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.
Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.
Risto I'm curious, I assume your opinion is that this is just temporary noise but if bitcoin were to EVER die out, how would you expect it to unfold and at what time? WAYYYY too much new adoption, and, importantly, WAYYY too much new infrastructure and VC participation for this to be any kind of swan song. We're still REALLY early in this story, not really late. Right but how can you be so sure?? I mean, even though with all these good news and hype, there just seems to be no buying pressure and we barely had any bulltrap at all. It doesn't make sense to me The daily cash flow diagram of BTC economy is as follows (always totalling zero): + the purchases of existing holders + the purchases of new holders - the sales of existing holders - the value of new mining ----------------------------------------- 0. When the price rises, the value of new mining goes up, giving possibility for more new money to come in. When it rises really high, also the existing holders sell in increasing quantities, absorbing all the new money and eventually forcing the price down. (BUBBLE PHASE). When the price falls, the value of new mining goes down, but is still there. New money is sluggish to enter because price is in a downtrend. The existing holders largely need to absorb the mining, leading to further decline. (DOWNTREND). When even the existing holders in large quantities throw in the towel and want to cash out, the price quickly falls until it meets a floor due to rising interest from new holders (and their fiat also buys much more coins, also mining value is very low). (CAPITULATION, SEEDS OF A NEW RISE) Now, if the ecosystem would eventually die, we assume that new holders would not ever be coming and the existing holders would one at a time throw in the towel. Then the only ones to buy both the coins from the defectors + the newly mined coins, would be the other existing holders. In this case the price would go down (similar to DOWNTREND above) but even sharp falls would not ignite a new lasting uptrend. This pattern has happened to many, if not the majority, of altcoins. The difference that sheds light to Bitcoin's situation is that no altcoin that eventually died or is in a terminal decline, has made successive booms before that. It has always been the tulip mania -style one bubble and then bust and die. Bitcoin has made several bubbles and survived as many busts, making the chances of survival from this one also, much higher. Bitcoin is much more usable now than 12 months ago when the price was 4 times higher. Unless the actual ecosystem goes into decline, I would not worry of Bitcoin dying. IF the ecosystem goes into decline, though, the price is already likely in a trash, because markets tend to forecast such events. Considering the price, I have no reason to remove the STRONG BUY from Bitcoin though. Just make sure you operate with funds that you are comfortable with. |
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I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.
Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.
Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.
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Are you implying the wall is from an early Bitcoin adopter trying to get more coins?  Any chance a US government attempt at trouncing Bitcoin value? Don't know. Your last sentence.....You are selling your Estonia castle? This was to be the center of the Bitcoin universe, can you please elaborate?
Having a smiley does not seem to work. Yes, I mentioned now the first time that even Bitcoin castle may be for sale, if Bitcoin becomes cheap enough. If I sell it for Bitcoins, it just changes ownership to stronger hands, and can still become the center of Bitcoin universe. Selling to an outsider would be a pity, but luckily that does not ever happen unless Bitcoin is thoroughly destroyed first, meaning that the castle also becomes useless for its intended purpose.  |
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I am assuming that the wall is caused by one entity. Such entities capable of selling BTC30,000 exists, but they are few in number. I would put the figure at 30 potential sellers. The number goes much lower if we consider the risks involved in selling so many coins in Bitstamp. It is hardly a forced sale, because it is unlikely that such a position would have been financed by debt such that it must now be sold at a loss, and if this were the case, a wall would likely not be the way to realize the value. It is hardly a panic sale, because the people with 30,000 are not prone to panic selling. If they were, they would have had ample opportunities to show their panicky nature in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. (And people buying in 2014 who are prone to panic, never had the $20-$30 million needed to begin with - panicky people cannot amass so much money). I can only conclude that it is a scare wall, intended to bring the price down for accumulation. It is used during weekend when no new money is coming, mitigating the risk for an outright buy. In case of nibble, it can be safely pulled. No matter who has already bought so many and wants to buy more, I see it as a natural and inevitable development in Bitcoin's way to be more widely adopted. By the way, I have a castle for sale for bitcoins. Serious inquiries to PM please |
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I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.
This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.
The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.
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This ties into why World Dollar ( http://www.world-dollar.com) is so brilliant, no-one has to "buy" into it, and everyone is integrated into it as it is distributed to everyone, equally. Expect big things from WLD. Slightly more accurately, one "buys in" to world dollars by creating a video of oneself advocating world dollars. Essentially, it outsources the advertising content creation in exchange for the world currency. This is a form of legitimate trade, more than a gift. The first big thing I would expect is a compilation video, of anyone world dollar thinks is interesting to have in its video. I see nothing much wrong with this, though you may want to get releases from the video submitter permitting your reuse. I wish you good fortune with this enterprise. This is actually an interesting experiment. - What's currently the value of "1 share"? - How does the developer recoup the costs? - How are the middle, business and 1st class formed? - How many people currently in? |
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Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life. People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year. The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs. Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners. This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum. An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.) An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though). Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence. We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers. The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here. I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11. Starting point is now invalidated. But is the post still valid otherwise? |
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What is clear is that only a person with 50k XMR can erect such a wall.
I think it was you who pointed out before that just because you see the wall there doesn't mean it is one person with 50k. It could have been started smaller and built on by others. Nevertheless whoever puts it there, whether one person or not, is trying to be manipulative. Right, I stand corrected.  |
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How is a sell wall 33% above the current price part of a P&D?
There is a 10K XMR/ 122 btc sell @ 0.012 and a 8735 XMR sell @ 1.0
It is likely an attempt to drive down the price in order to buy cheaper coins to be pumped later. All walls outside the range of actual trading are manipulative. Whether they can achieve the intended effect is dubious. What is clear is that only a person with 50k XMR can erect such a wall. If this person wanted to sell them, he would probably do something very different. More likely is that he is a buyer, wants even more, and believes the trick will rather lure the price down than up. Note to pundits: walls near market and outright orders are NOT manipulative. They are trades or invitations to trade. |
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so summary:
- Monero weak.
- Myriad, Quark are robust.
The weak will under-perform against the robust in the medium to long term.
OK. So now please try to add some reasoning to your opinion. What makes them weak or robust? (Actually everyone has just told me to ignore you  ) |
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What makes it valuable? Why would somebody try to amass them? How long does it take to arrive at the functional "optimal" distribution with the 4 classes? Is it even possible?
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Quark has already achieved more than Monero so it is the evidence, Monero is held by what ? 20 people? maybe? maybe 40 ?
Your number on people holding Monero is extremely far off. I know at least 40 and I'm quite sure that I know only a tiny percentage. Bitcoin has about 1 million and the marketcap per user is $5,000. Now if we think Monero has the same marketcap per user (which is very far-fetched), it should have 1,000 users. Monero downloads typically measure in 10,000s per week. Poloniex alone has 5,000 distinct speculator accounts. MEW has 60 members a week after inception while membership costs 10 XMR at least and is only really possible for BCT accounts. By getting back to marketcap per user metric, 5,000-10,000 users ($500-$1,000 per person) is reasonable. If all exchanges are considered, the number might be 10,000-15,000. Probably not more though. I don't know of anything that Quark has accomplished, so it's not a comparison. Auroracoin had a much bigger pump, but is equally dead now. Doge ; ) yeah no problem that's got to be all above board, the fact of the matter is it will all come out in the wash,(everyone here knows that) and I was talking about in % terms. Equally as dead as Monero? you are too hard on yourself, I never said it was "dead" I'm just saying its a long way behind because of the "tech insider" pump that i easily could have been involve in, as you know i went on to your topic an called it as it was happening, but when I make % gains its not on these little pump dump actions, I just don't see the point? Monero is just another crypto that "can't stand the heat" so to say, the heat being the ability to be distributed. its basically too weak to be able to be properly distributed. so you have moved back to some faulty logic that only the "business class" should control it (similar to the way Bitcoin furiously tries to ignore the elephant in the room right now ha ha) i can't even conceive of how that works? I'll make a bet - Myriad is a Crypto that "is standing the heat" it had the strength to put its units out into the system just like Quark did. I bet both Myriad and Quark over the medium to long term outperform Monero . if i'm wrong I'll concede your "business class theory" is correct. I am sorry but nothing you say makes any sense, including your interpretations of what I might have said. Are you sure you are ok? |
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Interesting. Definitely following!
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NEM has the best distribution by far.
Almost 3000 NEM stakeholders vs. 73 NXT stakeholders.
Please if you state that something is "better", tie it to the body-of-knowledge of "what is better" provided by me. If you don't want to use my framework, argue that betterness has another criteria, state them, and be ready to discuss. This way the conversation improves and leads to interesting conclusions. /OP: sorry for hijack  |
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rpietila: I going to setup an Monero related website, will be: mostly text-based, fact-based, HQ content info portal.
I would like to ask you, if I am allowed to use some of your very good writings/postings about Monero on this forum, mostly from your observer thread?
I want to "preserve" this content, type of information, so its on the web and burried in the thread.
Yes, I believe information is free. If you want to attribute it to me, then please quote in context! |
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Thanks! I didn't get that was the thread with the actual content, sorry.
Well it kind of isn't, because the internal discussion happens in an IRC group open for members. It is totally non-functional idea to "separate" MEW from the community it is representing and serving, so the discussion about the topics is still possible in the Monero threads here, like it has been so far. |
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Like smooth above, I also lived some time in confusion regarding the imminent development funding crisis. Since we have now got MEW communication tools up and running, the hearing today was very reassuring. There is no funding crisis. No significant extra funds could not even be committed right now, since the bottleneck in development is not money but qualified developers, and I am happy to say that we are in the forefront regarding this already, with more in the pipeline. My proposal of a 20,000 XMR fundraiser was actually turned down! It is waiting for the time when it is needed. MEW membership fees have already contributed 3,000+ XMR to the development, and this sum is expected to increase when MEW shows its usefulness and also in preparation for important votes coming later this year. Votepower is based on the amount contributed. The future looks bright, especially considering that in USD terms, Moneros are now in 40% discount compared to as little as 1 month ago, and even in BTC terms, they are 25% cheaper. |
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How much monero do mew members have to have?
10 XMR is the minimum fee. This nominally corresponds to 1000 XMR holdings, although you can be much smaller or bigger if you like. Can you direct me to the thread so I can read without joining? I read only version is fine as well. |
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