Each bet has a value, which is the probability/odds that a certain event will occur.
Beyond the arbitrage that occurs on a bookmaker, regardless of the result of an event, they have always a profit... what system can be a system to calculate the value of a bet?
Are there any resources, forms, notes that make it possible to derive the value of each bet / odds?
(topic moderated to avoid spam and off topics)
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Basilashvili, Nikoloz - Ymer, Elias - Match Odds win Basilashvili @0.0005 btc @1.03Evans, Daniel - Davidovich Fokina - Match Odds win Evans @0.0005 btc @1.05Both match seems enough simple to be followed/small odds but easy bets Also multiply bet can be a profitable chance despite the risk. Play quickly because odds could collapse to 1.00. BET LIVE --->STAKE.comTotal bets recorded on forum (2022) = 16 events Win = 13/16 events Loss = 3/16 events Unit = 0,001 btc (1 unit) Total Profit = 1.6655 unit = 0.0016655 btc [63,86 euro] edit= bad loss with Evans ![Cry](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cry.gif) ... he was close to win the match but he loss the chance. let's not lose heart and ... to the next bet ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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-Will you quit your job if in a month, you earn more from signature campaign than you do get from working 8am - 4pm?
Participating in a signature campaign is not a job. Managers could kick you off for low quality posts, or signature could end... or maybe one day rules will change and signature no more offered on forum, or who knows what could happens in the future! Normally I think that you can earn much more in your life and not following signature campaign even in a poor country (because you have a good education that allow to access to certain type of jobs or more over you have enough culture to create your business from the scratch) -Is it okay to hinge your life on the earnings you get weekly from your signature campaigns?
Absolutely not. There are too many factors that could disrupt this business in a matter of minutes, people before me have pointed several examples. -Has the existence of signature campaigns on this forum eliminated the need to work offline for other people?
Despite some signature campaigns provide a good amount of cash, this is not enough for a living or at least this is not enough for live in a safe way. If you want provide a good content, you need to spend a lot of time on forum. With the same amount of time you can earn much more in a classic job (online or offline). Signature campaign are just "tips". they are helpful but I don't rely too much on it... this is not a stable income.
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also USA have their crypto stamps ... the list of country is growing! @haloxon never heard about this emission can you post please some pictures or a direct link to original listing? what is the current value on the secondary market (ebay or delcampe) ?
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Hi guys, today another tennis live match... with few minutes for place a betting but it seems interesting and has a good percentage of profitability. We have: Vondrousova, Marketa vs Putintseva, Yulia - Match Odds win Vondrousova @0.0005 btc @1.2 Settled Win BET LIVE --->STAKE.comTotal bets recorded on forum (2022) = 14 events Win = 12/14 events Loss = 2/14 events Unit = 0,001 btc (1 unit) Total Profit = 2.1505 unit = 0.0021505 btc [79,93 euro]
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https://www.instagram.com/p/CZ0eY4fOFre/well he know how to play because the bets/events are split and not placed in the same multiply ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) (totally 3 bets) What I find more interesting is that he place these bets on Stake.com ! This is an endorsement for the crypto industry in a certain way... ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif) Thanks for a detailed explanation, it was understandable why multi-bets have a low chance while the winning odds of the house go down on single bets. I personally prefer placing single bets rather than wasting my money on huge multipliers, if it works for me then I will continue doing this method. Some crazy multipliers can hit as you can see on social media, last time Drake has won crazy multi on $500k CAD, this is the craziest one I have ever seen for 10x odds.
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I'm currently involved in small memecoin project which fairlaunched on the FTM network and we are currently struggling to get good growth. We have around 350 holders and a few reliable meme makers doing their thing on twitter slowly pushing up our follower base. We've got a modest marketing budget but don't want to blow it all at once.
I'm interested in getting tips and advice on what worked best for some of the more experienced members here. We have thought about Giveaways, Youtube videos, reddit crypto moonshots posts etc..but not sure which to focus on. Any advice appreciated!
I believe that the secret sauce is "good marketing" not improvised. Plus the ability to know how to manage social networks to be able to go viral. But be careful it's not necessarily enough. In the end we take care only for those who have been successful and not those who have not made it. It is not a trivial thing because many coins have had bad results turning into... scams!
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I think he was on a rush to post "solved" on that topic in the end, no one took the bait because we know very well that "not your keys not your coins" ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) But I don't think he is another shill account, just because... this is just a stupid and bad promotion for bookmaker and no one believe to that story without proofs. ("Don't trust, VERIFY"!) and we are talking about a scam accusations, so anyone that open this thread has a clear opinion. Meanwhile OP was online today at 7 pm... @sparky90 can you reply to our questions? Coins received?
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be cautious! it's not the first time scammers are targeting famous brand or famous company to promote some scam. my personal suggestion is to not believe to such claims without making a proper research on their website. about whatsapp there is nothing on line. the last news crypto related is old - 3 months and no tokens are launched... https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/9/22825766/whatsapp-novi-digital-payments-us-pilot-paxos-stablecoin A “limited number” of people in the US send and receive money from within a chat using cryptocurrency.
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Is it just luck that I made most of my money from shitcoins and meme coins?
Probably yes. I think you were lucky in choosing the right time to buy and the right time to sell (you sold it yes? ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) ). But not everyone is so lucky, we have seen a lot of people loosing money as I have described in this blogpost... and it's not always possible pocketing easy money in that field. I remember months ago when I wanted to short shiba on eTORO... the system only allowed me to buy/long ... ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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I like NFTs and idea behind this stuff. But I think it's a bit absurd that people are focusing their efforts just in "the next novelty to make big money"... as we have seen this is just a scheme to draw money from people that doesn't understand the real innovation related bitcoin and blockchain... a lots of big company have launched their NFT just for pocketing more money. At the end, after selling NFTs, they are exchanging in FIAT and who knows maybe in bitcoin ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) it is not a small detail ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) they are not investing in other NFTs
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This is an important point of discussion, thank you for opening a topic! When I participated in DirectBet competitions* (a few years ago ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) I was one of the few to place single bets and "don't try your luck"... because if you play for win and not just for waste your time, you have to take in account basic statistics. I have tried to explain here in my personal topic about betting. 10° Last but don't least.... Don't play too much events in one toto bet! Yes! don't make "a long long list" in only one bet to pump up the prize. @100 x 2 btc = 200 btc... with 1000 bet 0f 1.10...... The @100 is not only a ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) happy number, "I can become rich" but it's a probability number, that your events will be set winning! Trust me bookmaker want that you try to catch this high prize, because more match together implies more difficult (and I think with some numbers it's really impossible win). A good friend (in the real life) use to bet from 6-10 bet every time like handicap, over 2,5 etc etc.... Him can get really the 90% of single match, but for only 1 every time him loose! Why?!? Because if you play 6-10 single with strong quotes more @1.70 so far, you can protect your self for the "lucky bad of the last bet". There is also a psychological correlation, to see the prize get up, the vast majority of better, try to place the "surprise" or decide deliberately to point to more bet. It's always easier catch one event and not more events in the same parlay/combo bets... it's like math! Ok you win less, but in a certain point of view it's a safe win with less risks! So I think, if you are not playing for the sake of victory, feeling the emotion of a big win, this is the only reasonable strategy to follow. * 2° place in hall of fame
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trying my luck...
Nice try @Woodie. But I don't think this is a valid entry ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) for competition . Please note that, according rules posted by OP, it should be paint with "a simple image editor i.e. Paint" and not with a pencil in a paper as I can see from image posted...
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I can give you some "certain" numbers. I got the first 1000 predictions from this topic* The next 100x-1000x coin? because I was really curious to see the results after some time (in this case about 3 years, more or less). I have also published a series of articles which (oops) is not completed yet due to very limited time... but some data are already available and published in my blog https://www.publish0x.com/bitbollo-cryptocurrencies-blog/a-depth-analysis-of-bitcointalkorg-speculation-thread-the-ne-xpnnjwqQuick summary after 3 years: 10.83% of predictions have reported a total loss! 56.23% of predictions have reported a negative profit! We have a total of 67% of coins suggested with 0 or negative profit at the end! *This topic was created during the ICO mania in 2017 (just for your information).
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Anyone doing this now? ...
In my country there is a bank service (Italy - HYPE) that allow to buy bitcoin DIRECTLY with a third party exchange integrated in their app (CONIO). Once employees receive salary they can decide the right moment to exchange in bitcoin. From a certain perspective is also convenient, since they can wait the better time to buy btc and not buying immediately/or receiving at a fixed price. Probably this is the best solution nowadays, since some expenses are anyway fixed and cannot be bypassed using only btc (FIAT is needed, like paying cash, direct service without Credit Card etc etc)
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"Good News"? I don't want to appear too pessimistic or a spoilsport @sparky90 but I suggest you mark the topic as [SOLVED] only when you have actually received your btc because there is a motto in our industry "Not your keys, not your coins" ... even if you can request the withdrawal it does not mean it has been "completely" [SOLVED]
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@icopress Ciao caro amico (Hi dear friend), tonight I was doing nothing really interesting and I have noticed that no one in Italy ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) has translated your awesome thread/initiative. What a shame! Let's fix it right away, hope that voters from Italy express their opinion very soon! • [Ita]Enjoy ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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I Bitcointalk Community Awards sono per noi utenti una grande opportunità di esprimere il nostro apprezzamento a quelle persone speciali che stanno facendo del loro meglio: per la comunità, per tutte le buone azioni e per l'impatto che hanno sul forum.
Nonostante il fatto che ora il 2022 è ancora in corso, questo non ci impedisce di fare il punto sul passato:
quindi se conosci un utente che merita un premio in una delle categorie, sentiti libero di nominarlo.🏆 Quali premi spettano ai vincitori?Noi crediamo che il riconoscimento pubblico sia il più prestigioso dei premi, in ogni caso, i nostri sponsor nella figura di Sportsbet & [C]ryptioS / ChipMixer / BestChange hanno assicurato che i vincitori sentano veramente la loro importanza. Per favore, notate che il BCA 2021 non è un evento ufficiale ed è gestito sotto i migliori auspici della community. | | ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FA843kIL.png&t=663&c=nrqDbXO7AlWPWQ) | Ciascun vincitore riceverà collezionabili esclusivi / Cyrus e i ragazzi di Cryptios si sono presi la responsabilità di offrire a ciascun vincitore un regalo personalizzato che dovrebbe racchiudere alcuni oggetti interessanti e unici, (le foto stanno per essere postate a breve) ➥ Note.
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| Tutti i vincitori condivideranno il montepremi di50 mBTC e saranno sorteggiate scommesse gratuite tra gli elettori. Inoltre, quest'anno il premio principale sarà un VIP tour per due, per una partita dell' Arsenal o del Southampton, compreso un box aziendale, alloggio e voli ➥ Note.
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| ChipMixer ha gentilmente deciso di far parte del team di sponsor e fornira un montepremi aggiuntivo di70 mBTC, quindi ciascun vincitore riceverà un voucher di 5 mBTC, e tra i votanti verranno estratti a sorte 10 buoni da 2 mBTC ciascuno . ➥ Note.
| ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FKufplow.png&t=663&c=0Fr73Vfi9CqB3Q) | BestChange sostiene iniziative pubbliche da diversi anni, quindi questa volta non si è fatta da parte entrando a far parte del team degli sponsor e fornendo un montepremi 50 mBTC, oltre ai premi già annunciati, ciascun vincitore riceverà 5 mBTC aggiuntivi!
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Come funziona?Dal momento della pubblicazione e fino alla fine di Febbraio , sarà aperto una votazione pubblica, in cui ciascun utente attivo potrà prenderne parte. Ciascun utente ha il diritto di promuovere (a favore o contro) altri candidati in un topic a parte creato ad hoc per l'occasione. Chi sarà tra i primi tre vincitori di ogni rispettiva categoria dipende solo dalla vostra attività, (useremo il sistema di votazione IRV). Per garantire al sistema di votazione di funzionare, ciascun candidato/nominato deve aver ricevuto il supporto di almeno tre utenti, (i candidati con il minor numero di voti saranno eliminati). Quando il timer raggiungerà lo zero, bloccheremo questo thread e faremo i conti. - E' possibile votare fino a 3 utenti per ciascuna categoria ➥ Note.
- Puoi modificare la tua votazione fino a che il topic verrà chiuso ➥ Note.
- Devi avere almeno 50 merit o essere full member o rank superiore per votare ➥ Note.
| Custom title | Description of the Nomination |
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| | Absolute Hero of Good | Il premio viene dato al leader informale, [la presenza di un culto è incoraggiata].
Quest'uomo eccezionale ha dedicato molti anni al servizio della comunità e ha lasciato un'eredità indelebile facendo il servizio alla comunità senza riguardo per il guadagno personale/ il vincitore di questa nomination riceverà il premio principale.
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| | Golden Feather | Il premio viene consegnato al partecipante il cui nome simboleggia fiducia e saggezza.
Nota: Ci sono sempre stati utenti sul forum che si distinguono dalla massa per stile di scrittura e obiettività, quelli i cui post sono sempre piacevoli da leggere e le discussioni con loro portano soddisfazione.
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| | Bitcointalk Ninja | Il premio viene assegnato per il contributo eccezionale allo sviluppo di Bitcointalk!
Una persona le cui attività sono estremamente utili per la community di bitcointalk, o qualcuno senza il quale non puoi immaginare un forum. In questa categoria vengono giudicate le persone veramente creative e ora è il momento di determinare le migliori!
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| | Bitcoin Geek | Il premio viene assegnato al partecipante che ritieni sia stato il più utile nelle aree relative a Bitcoin.
Raccontaci quale dei tuoi conoscenti è appassionato di bitcoin all'estremo, chi può spiegarti facilmente tali sfumature di cui non sapevi nemmeno o chi semplicemente ha scelto un ASIC per tua nonna.
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| | Event of the Year | Quale evento ha avuto il maggiore impatto su di te?
Questa nomination è un tributo agli eventi più importanti nella comunità delle criptovalute o ai più significativi per te personalmente. Questo è il secondo premio annuale, puoi nominare e votare solo per tutti gli eventi significativi del 2021.
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| | Fail of the Year | L'evento più promettente, che ha portato molta delusione alla community. È molto più piacevole ricordare eventi piacevoli, ma ci sarà comunque utile trarre conclusioni per evitare delusioni in futuro. Qual è stata la cosa più difficile per te con cui venire a patti?
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| | Discovery of the Year | Forse una delle categorie più inaspettate ma allo stesso tempo iconiche, che dimostra che il forum è vivo.
Il premio viene assegnato non solo ai bitcoiner principianti, ma anche ad altri utenti che hanno partecipato attivamente alla vita del forum nell'ultimo anno ... diamine, puoi persino nominare il tuo migliore amico di bitcointalk!
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| | SpamBuster | TIl premio viene assegnato a un utente volontario per il suo inestimabile contributo al mantenimento dell'ordine nel forum.
Tendiamo a pensare che questo premio sia più adatto alla figura più importante tra i "reportes" o che contribuisce in tutti i modi alla soppressione delle attività "truffa" nei thread, (dateun[1] [2] [3]).
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| | ScamBuster | Il premio viene assegnato a un eccezionale volontario che lavora esclusivamente a beneficio della comunità.
Aderisce a un codice morale abbastanza forte, è un modello e dimostra costantemente un inesauribile entusiasmo nell'identificare gli scammer su Bitcointalk, (in queste sezioni [1] [2] puoi farti un'idea su questi utenti).
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| | Craft Master | Il premio viene assegnato a coloro che amano sinceramente il proprio mestiere, sia esso un'attività professionale o un hobby.
Tendiamo a pensare che questo premio sia più adatto alla figura più significativa tra collezionisti, manager, escrow, designer o utenti così appassionati di sport e p2p da motivare gli altri a scommettere esclusivamente in BTC.
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| | Antihero | Non ha mai voluto essere un cattivo, ma ha dovuto accettare le regole del gioco in cui "gioca sporco".
Ricorda che anche il male ha i suoi principi, quindi una persona del genere è capace di tutto, anche se non gli giova. Pertanto, a volte vuoi anche abbracciarlo e piangere, beh ... o prima ucciderlo, e poi "abbraccialo e piangi".
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| | Miss Bitcointalk | Nonostante le ragazze sono adesso la minorazoina su Bitcointalk, 4.6 to 1, sono ancora meravigliose, interessanti e importanti per noi. Capisco che scegliere tre vincitrici tra tutte le nostre belle ragazze sia problematico, ma ci proveremo comunque.
Chi pensi meriti in particolare di essere Miss Bitcointalk?
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| | Best Forum Moderator | Il premio viene assegnato per il supporto e lo sviluppo delle sezioni globali o locali del forum.
Li temiamo e li rispettiamo, sono severi, ma giusti... Il moderatore è sempre gentile e risponde alle tue domande? Dagli una voce! Un altro moderatore sta aiutando con un problema tecnico? Merita anche il tuo voto!
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| _________________ | _________________ | |
Per la maggior parte this thread is for voting, to facilitate the counting of votes / the thread for discussion and agitation is here.
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...
Great news! Completely missed ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Another big names added to the list! Very Interesting at least to me, because this is a small club playing on "Southern Football League" and a stadium with just 3000 seats. Now there is a big name/sponsor behind the club. ...
Thank you all for your contributions!
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